Aphria

I paid $5.74 about 2 months ago

It's a glitch on whatever you are looking at. There is no drop after hours. It is steady.

Why did pins jump up and come right back down?

Anyone feel it’s overvalued at all?

Wanted to Thank you Again for cluing me into this promotion! Free 1 Year, is 1 year Free!

Institutional traders don’t trade after hours in big blocks

Let the dust settle. PINS in the catbird seat.

Fwiw I still have my 56,255 shares of PINS and I’m going to collect some nice May covered call rent when it drifts back up next week on upgrades

Also still have Jan 2022 37 strike price. 130 contracts that I will have to exercise to avoid big tax gain

I bought 10k of MGM today for the long term

You think MGM is better vs. LVS? I've been contemplating adding a casino and possibly gas/oil.

MGM has the sports gambling App for nationwide gambling

WYNN, VICI, LVS etc. they are all gonna crush the re-opening summer

EPD is my go to for energy

Bought a bunch of both for clients today

ARK ones and I like OGIG with a good combination of old guard and new kids on the block tech. I don’t like International index funds barf but like Emqq for emerging market Tech.

Everything is overvalued right now, lol. I also own PINS (and have since it was in the 20's). It's as good as anything else right now, I'm just riding the momentum wave and try not to think about it too much. I do have a watchful eye on the ripcord though because at some point here the music is going to stop and the bottom is going to fall out (temporarily), but until that point I'm just going to keep riding. I made the mistake of being too rational about the market early in the crisis, eventually realized that you're just better off ignoring the facts and just keep riding the wave (but have a plan in place for when things eventually fall apart).

We're setting ourselves up for something here, I'm just not sure which shoe is going to drop first...inflation, deflation, dollar collapse, interest rate spike, etc. But until it does, I'm just riding. One thing that might spook the market here eventually is that in March/April YOY inflation is going to be shown as very elevated because we had negative inflation last March/April. Now realistically the media should take that into account but they never do, instead going for bigger headlines.

CPI doesn't show it yet, but it's clear that inflation is a major issue right now in almost everything...food, lumber, housing, stocks, pinball, game consoles, silver, gold, bitcoin, etc. I don't know if that will eventually fix itself or not through supply chains getting back to normal.

Anyone get in on OCGN (Ocugen), new Covid vaccine candidate? It's been going up, up up the last 5 days.

I bought a bunch of novavax back in April. Lucked out there, Canada put in a big order.

PLTR has earnings Feb 16th premarket. Would they hold earnings premarket if they were soft with average guidance? The founders are these guys-

Peter Thiel
Nathan Gettings
Joe Lonsdale
Stephen Cohen
Alex Karp

They are all Billionaires anyway, well one only has $450 Million net worth. Do you think they will sell off the shares for retirement money? I think they will perform well during earnings and lock up will not end up with a insider sell off and will be a solid stock for the next 10 years.

I bought lower at $11-$15, sold 40% at $29 and bought back at $24 and added more Thursday at
$32. Have thousands of shares and number 3 largest holding for me behind TTD and SE. I am planning to hold PLTR for many year as one of my core holdings.

But sure earnings could be so so and insiders could dump stock bringing it back down to $15. But I don’t think those guys above would set this up to let this happen.

Surprised you didn't jump in MGM when it was way down

EPD seems to have a very nice dividend yield. Would you write covered calls on it to increase your yield? Thanks.

XEC is looking good for energy as well

Serious question...

WHY does the market HAVE to come down/correct itself?

Prior to the onslaught of the pandemic, everything seemed to be going great. Low unemployment, stock market was making new highs, everyone was spending and so on.

The market CRASHED in March, but really that was self inflicted because of virus news and the impending closures and lock downs. It wasn't because of fundamentals and earnings reports. So we go from Dow 29k+ to 18k in no time. Then in a quick turnaround, it starts climbing right back up to all new highs in less then a year.
Also, tell me that wasn't market manipulation to the extreme?

So, now with ALL of these retail investors pouring money in thru daytrading apps, people putting more and more money in 401k/IRA retirement accounts and the general excitement around the ease and low cost of personal investing, WHY does the market have to drop?

If we get to the other side of this pandemic, everyone will look at the world thru different eyes and not take things for granted anymore. There will be more vacations, eating out and other activities people are just ready to get back to doing.

I think we have turned a corner personally. With all of this "new money" coming into the market, getting "freedom" back sometime this year and the economy opening back up, how can we not get right back on track like we were before covid?

With all the advances in technology, science and health care, we are growing by leaps and bounds. I truly think the only thing that would hold us back and cause a drop is the constant news chatter telling us that a recession is imminent, that it has to manifest itself, that we can't keep going upwards.

Yes, we can.

Market fundamentals and market cycles would tend to disagree with you. We might not have a crash like March, but we will probably have swings up and down, just like normal. You will have certain sectors that move up with the reopening trade, but will have other sectors conversely move down. In the long run, the stock market goes up. But could it be depressed foe a few years? Sure.

I think you also overestimate the impact of the retail investor in aggregate. It has come out even with GME that the big movers in that were institutional in nature.

Yes, I agree that the large institutions are the ones that truly make the market have large swings up and down. But, the point of the discussion is why can't we keep moving upwards?

I have to side w/Iceman and say that as long as the govt keeps pumping out money, it will prop the market up. My gut tells me it should be correction time, but as shown by the reddit guys, more money (even small amounts - but a lot of them) is going into the market which will keep driving it up for the meantime.

Can I give you my basic understanding, the investment community likes volatility. They don't care if it goes up or down, as long as it is volatile. Most people look at the market in terms of going up. But I think volatility is the key, nobody wants a market that is stagnant. The big players make money whether the market goes up or down.

What goes up, must come down.

My guess why it pulls back along the way is mostly speculation and leverage. But also Real world events like pandemic. Fiscal and monetary policy like tax increases or fed selling securities back into the market lowering money supply. Or a group of investors or institutions get stupid with risk like borrowing money to invest in the market in 2000 at super high prices when Money Markets were already paying 6% yield and bond yields were higher, letting borrowers buy a house without verification of income to pay the loan back or some dumbasses online paying $400 a share for GameStop and looking at Getting silver to $100 as their next target.

How can the market always go up with stuff like this going on? But as we know this stuff passes and the market comes back and will go up again. It always does.

We can keep moving upwards as long as the Government is pumping money in. However, that isn't 'real' growth, it's artificial, and with the deficits we have now unsustainable in the longer term. The low interest rates have caused an excess of money to flow into more and more risk, so it could keep moving higher in the short to medium term. Longer term though I don't think people are going to be accepting of things like if you add up all the earnings of all the companies in the Russell 2000 it's negative (it was like a 38 PE prior to last March).

The biggest reason it can move higher is that there are no current alternatives due to government distortion. The last time we got into a high inflationary environment though the market did very poorly, so if inflation starts taking off that might be something that kills momentum.

Perfectly summarizes my position and why I have temporarily moved out of the market. The government is printing money, devaluing the dollar. Once inflation hits, and it will, interest rates will follow. You give all the boomers a 3 to 5% fixed return and money will pour out of the market. The debt load and interest payments on that debt are going to cripple the economy eventually. There's just not enough tax base to pay for all the government spending. So taxes will be raised further reducing the real money in our pockets. I honestly see a death spiral in the coming years. Would not be surprised to see the government try and tap into the trillions of sheltered 401k money.

Also, as a comparative value indicator, between 2010 and 2019 the PE for the S&P never really got above 23. It is currently 39. So basically, if the market was valued exactly the HIGHEST point it was the past 10 years, it should be sitting at around 2300 (which is exactly where it hit during the March lows) instead of 3900.

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Sounds like you're doing it backwards. When interest rates are near zero, and the dollar is being devalued, and inflation is starting to set in, you're simply losing money by keeping it on the sidelines. Currently the stock market is the best way to keep your money from falling in value.

When that 20% correction hits get back to me. Im not talking a long term strategy. Short term. Using the cash to earn about 5% a week playing volatility. But not letting the money sit in ETFs...too many warning signs to ignore.

I was going to say something like this too. Wall Street is not in touch with Main Street. Disney (I love Disney) but it cut it's dividend (covid) and half of it's money makers are out to lunch but the stock is at all time high.

Bonds paying 1-2%, cash is trash, the acronym I use is TINA (There Is No Alternative) so people buy stocks. Houses are super high as well.

People who think the stock prices will stick, not likely, still will be higher years from now but will be slower growth, the big years have been priced in so there will be low years or negative years to bring things back in line and earnings will catch up with prices some day. I can't say when and I don't believe in timing the market or keeping boat loads of cash I just have a longterm outlook and know that these sky high valuations are not going to stick so the only way is that prices come down or wait at these levels for earnings to catch up (years down). I mean prices have run ahead of earnings and will have to take a break until earnings catch up.

your problem is you don't know how long it will be until the crash it could be years from now, you don't know so you are letting the growth pass you by in the hopes you can perfectly time the peak (you already exited so you have bet this is the high) and then you have to buy at the lows when everyone is panic or wait to be a clear turn around so you miss some of the rebound. Timing the market is so hard (I would never do that).

I was watching this video about a guy who said Japan Stock market was so over valued (back in the 90's) and he was telling everyone to get out before the crash it was so overvalued, crash is coming and it's going to be hard crash etc.. He was right but the Japanese market kept going up 2 years after he proclaimed it overpriced and went up like another 50%. Sure he was right (everyone can see that) but the time he got out was all wrong. All Wrong.

You are not alone lots of people got out at the time of the election to buy the dip guess what they were wrong. Sure there is a correction to come but you have no idea when, no idea, the government can step in and buy bonds and buy stocks and make rates negative and this can keep the market inflated longer than you might believe.

my 2c

I've been investing for 35 years. I rode through black Friday, dot com, Covid etc. Ive accumulated a sizeable retirement nest egg. I can retire comfortably. Further risk in the hopes of gaining 10% this year or even next year, vs a losing 20% in an anticipated pull back is not in the cards for me. Im earning more playing volatility, some real estate, peer to peer lending awaiting the pull back. Then I'll move a portion into high dividend funds for some income. I'm not trying to time the market specifically. I'm mitigating risk based on what I anticipate.

I'm mitigating risk by spreading out to asset classes besides stocks (like gold, bitcoin, etc). But I'm also mitigating it by doing heavy duty research into stock chart analysis and market indicators, as the market almost always flashes warning signs before bad things happen (there are no warning signs currently, and haven't been for a few months). The last time serious warning signs were there was beginning of September.

I don't care if there's a pullback and I mistime getting out and in some, but what I don't want to happen is to ride the thing down 60% and have it stay there for years (like 2009, 2000, etc). So if I pull everything out and then back in and miss a few percent, whatever...that's much better than the alternative.

I see you are using your cash (playing volatility) that is not without risk, if it was risk free everyone would do it. Everything has a risk premium.

I've been investing for 25 years myself and I never took myself out of the market because it looked high (I never missed out out on the big gains), I don't look at investing as this year or the next 1-4 year time frame, I am 55 and could be alive in 40 years so I plan on the long term investing not getting spooked every time the market looks high, 20 years from now todays prices will looks cheap as hell.

Were similar...ive been accumulating silver for 10 years, not gold. Im holding precious metals right now...hedge against inflation. BC and similar coins is the one investment that has alluded me. While I understand the value of blockchain technology, the actual coins have been too speculative a play for me. I envy all of you that understand that market. I prefer more tangible assets like real estate, businesses (vc) and pinball machines

Oh I don't believe in bitcoin at all, but I also understand that I could be wrong and the cost of being wrong is enormous. So I have a small amount of my portfolio in crypto just because of that...because of the way it is, that 1% could go to zero or if it catches on it could jump to a 20x to 25x gain. It's worth the risk. It's also one of those deals where it normally would not be a thing, but out of control central banks may make it the 'thing'.

I'm playing it safe myself and staying out of fiat because it is a guaranteed loser every year, year after year. Guaranteed.

I like BTC more then gold and silver because you cant paper over it but as an asset class its not fiat so its a good alternative.
I also believe silver and gold to be so heavily manipulated that one day there will be an explosion in price, especially silver.

Real estate, classic cars, art, stamps, coins whatever is going to increase in value imo.

Uranium is a great, very small market and needed for a true green economy imo.

MJ stocks are rocking as well.

The US dollar is dying along with every many other countries currencies. Cant drop interest anymore, print all you want and create even more asset bubbles. This will not end well for people holding large cash positions.

Bitcoin is just taking little baby steps right now.

Look for more and companies and people to divest out of dollars into BTC, it will continue and accelerate for years.

Diversify a small amount into BTC, you owe it to yourself. I believe BTC is the future technology and fiat is a controlled, outdated rigged system that is withering away like all fiat currencies eventually do, much to the chagrin of the Masters who control these awesome powers. BTC is the great equalizer and it cant be stopped.

I have been investing in BTC miners for a while and the gains have been staggering and the party is just getting started imo.

Like it or not but Bitcoin is the future. Not many know it yet imo.

Check this out if you want:

Are people actually buying full bitcoins at this point, or just buying into pieces through exchanges?

My problem with bitcoin isn't the usefulness of it, I just think that governments will ban it before it becomes standard. It makes a lot of sense in countries where they have massive problems with inflation and unstable economic conditions. But there are a lot of issues with it too, like losing keys, the current power for mining, etc.

I think the central banks will all come out with their own crypto stuff and possibly ban others as it's a threat to economies. I also haven't seen a use case for crypto where it makes life any easier on a daily basis than just using paypal or anything else. Widescale adoption comes from usefulness, not speculation, and so far the speculation is the only thing driving it.

Truth

I don’t know what other people are doing but I buy pieces at a time along with some eth and a small Allocation for alts. Through coinbase.

Actually fundamentals, not speculation is driving Bitcoin and if you consider capitol appreciation useful, Bitcoin is for you as well. Governments has the same chance as banning Bitcoin as it does of shutting down the internet.

What good is it if government makes a digital currency? The whole concept is getting away from fiat and government control and manipulation. You cant fuck with Bitcoin, the code is done. No politician can fuck with it. It cant be taken away by a government or inflated away.

Non stop printing of money is not going to end well.Bitcoin is gold 2.0

Honestly, I've just bought and held the two biggest coins ETH and BTC for a couple years and added more to it here and there like a stock I'm holding long term. It's worked out great.

Nah, I buy $200-$500 at a time.

So what does it actually mean to buy into part of a coin? Is it sold on contract like forex futures, or is someone obtaining the underlying asset? (Doesn't someone need to hold a password for that? Is that the brokerage?)

Governments might not ban the tech, but they can absolutely ban the value. If no merchant accepts BTC as a means of payment what value does it have other than speculation between holders? Blockchain has value, but the coins themselves, I just don't see it. There's precedence everywhere for devaluing and even elimination of currency. The EU. Confederate dollars. Even BTC is prohibited in many countries, and India, one of the largest consumer bases in the world is considering a ban. Unfortunately when governments face losing Trillions of dollars to unregulated and anonymous currency, im going to bet on the governments. Wish that wasn't the case but if the last 10 years of government tightening control on every aspect of our lives doesn’t concern you, then you're a braver man than me.

I've been investing the same period of time as you, though I'm 47.

We share identical sentiments. Though I think I've concluded this some time ago based on your posts.

I've never been out of the market either. We keep about 12 months expenses in cash (have done since married in our late 20s)... everything else is invested, all the time. No dry powder, there is no powder, it's all in.

My risk is entirely managed via dispersion through index funds and, further, balance through a mix of equity based and debt based funds. Easiest, cleanest way to do it.

https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/30/india-plans-to-introduce-law-to-ban-bitcoin-other-private-cryptocurrencies/

1.4 billion investors. gone! be careful

Not true at all. All the USA has to do is implement a xx% tax on bitcoin returns and you're fucked. Imagine paying 50% tax on your bitcoin money when you withdrew. The IRS has not even started nailing people for income tax fraud based on bitcoin gains.

Also, pretty hard to transact B2B when bitcoin. Price can fluctuate mid-transaction.

My issue with digital currency and the ideas behind it have always been around the claims of how it will do this or that. No. It won't. Separate your love of blockchain from the idea that somehow you are going to have money that governments don't control. It's not going to happen. At least not legally or anytime in you or your kids lifetime. They are NOT going to allow currency they can't control or tax. What is happening right now is the realization that it is out there and the 'oh no how are we going to get our hands on this' phase.

Also, that people think people are buying BTC on fundamentals and not speculation is laughable.

Got me interested:
https://www.escapeartist.com/blog/countries-banned-bitcoin/

I think this is just the start...Fools gold, I might drop $30k in. FOMO. but that's it, I wouldn't go all in.

When Bitcoin was starting to get into the thousands of USD per coin, I thought it was crazy and stupid and wondered why anyone would be foolish enough to think something less than vapor had that kind of value. The Bitcoiners told me that I just didn't understand and that it was the future of currency. So I did extensive research and educated myself on everything related to Bitcoin including mining, blockchain, typical use, etc. So now I realize that it is worse than I originally thought with all of the faults of cash and stocks (and a few faults new to Bitcoin) and none of the upside of either. It is purely a speculative bubble driven by FOMO and has no future. Does that mean that there won't be some people who get very rich from Bitcoin? No, of course there will be. But as with all bubbles, a few will get spectacularly rich while most will lose their asses.