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Stern, 2001Quoted from jayhawkai:The day after MLK day is Black Tuesday, replete with massive losses.
If they were down days they could not have been too disastrous.
The worst days for the stock market mostly have been in the fall and late summer:
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/08/04/top-20-largest-dow-jones-average-losses.html
What I meant by that is if you retire when the market happens to be at it's peak your portfolio is going to way underperform in the following years. You could be hurt even following the old 4% rule.
On the flip side of you happen to retire at the bottom of the market your portfolio is going to overperform historical averages and you could potentially draw 8% annually and still have it last.
Good luck/Bad luck scenarios.
Quoted from DCFAN:If they were down days they could not have been too disastrous.
The worst days for the stock market mostly have been in the fall and late summer:
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/08/04/top-20-largest-dow-jones-average-losses.html
http://fortune.com/2015/08/24/stock-market-august-decline/
Just a little good-natured racial humor. MLK day, "black" tuesday... I'm sure it's hilarious now that I've typed it out
LOL... that lighting is pretty funny even if in the wrong thread.
As far as 2018 investing goes my personal plan is to stick where I’m at. Last year was fantastic but the market will at some point correct so at the end of the year I put about half the profits into more conservative portfolios.
If 2018 is as good as 2017 I will probably move about half (all profits from last few years) to a mix of bonds and a money market account. Market may still go up from there but I’d be willing to give up additional gains after that point while waiting for a correction and will be continuing my regular contributions in the meantime. When stocks go back on sale I’ll move all back over.
If a correction happens before the end of the year which I’m not really thinking it will then no biggie as I still have a long time to retirement and have ridden out steep drops before.
Quoted from DCFAN:Is there something historically significant about tomorrow’s date and the stock market?
Not that I know of. But when you force too much air into a balloon, it's gotta pop sometime.
My negative 'vibes' were sort of accurate as both the DOW and NASDAQ were down today. But thankfully, no big sell off!
Now, to see what tomorrow brings.
Quoted from jayhawkai:The day after MLK day is Black Tuesday, replete with massive losses.
Wow! I didn't know this tidbit of history, Andrew. And I never gave it any thought.
I'll certainly be looking out for it NEXT year! 
Quoted from jayhawkai:MLK day, "black" tuesday
Why . . . you ole SOB!!! You GOT ME! When I read that the first time, I thought, "That boy's brain is filled with broad based knowledge. He stays on top of everything!" I never, EVER suspected you would slip a sly one in on me . . . or 'US' for that matter! You just wait. "I'll get you, my ugly . . . and your little dog too!" 
Quoted from Astropin:You could be hurt even following the old 4% rule.
I understand where you are coming from. But my situation is not so 'normal'. Mine is cash in all my chips and pay for the gains/losses and eliminate a lot of worry about getting a large debt paid off before I croak. There won't be much of anything left. My investments are not IRA's or 401k's. Just plain ole stocks. Well, maybe $80,000.00 in an IRA that WILL come back to me and my wife in the 4% increments. Forgot about that one.
I'm simply willing to pay the tax penalties on the gains so as to sleep better at nights. I also look at those penalty fees as having been paid for by the massive gains I've made on the stocks. I'm coming out with a hell of a lot more than I ever put in. At least I hope so!!!
With owning our home, farm, buildings, cars, trucks, tractors, pinball room and movie theater (separate buildings) all paid in full already . . . . we plan on paying off one big massive bank loan with the stock cash-in and then living on two Social Security checks, my military retirement monthly checks, and my wife's pension plan. Plus, I still have a small business I run which does quite well.
Thanks for caring enough to make that lengthy comment. You are a pretty good ole Joe.
I like you, despite what everyone else on here says about you. 
Quoted from scarybeard:waiting for that correction, and then beginning to cost-dollar average in on the recovery, will provide you with the lowest risk returns.
There are people that have been waiting for a correction since 2016, I would not want to have missed the gains since then.
You cannot time the market regardless of whatever timeline you want to use.
Quoted from investingdad:There are people that have been waiting for a correction since 2016, I would not want to have missed the gains since then.
Well sure they've been waiting, because a 10 year bull cycle is unrealistic. So when the correction is finally manipulated by wall street, it's going to be that much bloodier. You know, just like the way wall street managed to manipulate BTC this week.
Quoted from investingdad:You cannot time the market regardless of whatever timeline you want to use.
Tell that to every day trader and swing trader making a living on the planet. What you might have meant to say is that the average person cannot time the market.
Let's try to be truthful about the U.S. stock market. It's the biggest long term scam ever perpetuated, and it is currently being threatened by crypto currencies. Wall street will use its trillions of dollars to make sure they win, and everybody else loses.
As I previously mentioned, when a U.S. stock that loses money every year for decades, goes up 400% in two days.... it's completely normal, nothing to see here. But when a crypto moves like that... well, it can only be fraudulent. Right, wall street?
That's just my opinion, and nobody else's matters.
Well, the DOW and NASDAQ are going upwards like crazy today! I just hope it holds. It started off setting records yesterday, and then died a slow death and settled at the end of the day in the RED. Please . . . ole stock market . . . stick to the big UP numbers today!!!
Quoted from Astropin:What I meant by that is if you retire when the market happens to be at it's peak your portfolio is going to way underperform in the following years. You could be hurt even following the old 4% rule.
On the flip side of you happen to retire at the bottom of the market your portfolio is going to overperform historical averages and you could potentially draw 8% annually and still have it last.
Good luck/Bad luck scenarios.
The trinity study. I read about that 4% rule a lot on various FIRE blogs/reddit
Totally agree. It’s better to hit your target number during a drought instead of when the market is the highest it’s ever been since it’s ever been invented. Talk about a hollow victory.
Here’s a link to a calculator that’s fun to tinker with https://firecalc.com/index.php
Quoted from ExtremePinball:Let's try to be truthful about the U.S. stock market. It's the biggest long term scam ever perpetuated
You know nothing, Jon Snow. It's the greatest wealth creator of the past century.
Quoted from ExtremePinball:Well sure they've been waiting, because a 10 year bull cycle is unrealistic. So when the correction is finally manipulated by wall street, it's going to be that much bloodier. You know, just like the way wall street managed to manipulate BTC this week.
Tell that to every day trader and swing trader making a living on the planet. What you might have meant to say is that the average person cannot time the market.
Let's try to be truthful about the U.S. stock market. It's the biggest long term scam ever perpetuated, and it is currently being threatened by crypto currencies. Wall street will use its trillions of dollars to make sure they win, and everybody else loses.
As I previously mentioned, when a U.S. stock that loses money every year for decades, goes up 400% in two days.... it's completely normal, nothing to see here. But when a crypto moves like that... well, it can only be fraudulent. Right, wall street?
That's just my opinion, and nobody else's matters.
No offense, but could you provide some details on your professional and educational background that support your views.
Especially the "stock that loses money" for decades bit, I don't understand how that works.
Quoted from investingdad:No offense, but could you provide some details on your professional and educational background that support your views.
Especially the "stock that loses money" for decades bit, I don't understand how that works.
I assume he's referring to Kodak (KODK) which went from ~$3 to almost $12 in 2 days last week upon their jumping on the block-chain bandwagon.
I'll try not to offend anyone on this thread, but arguing about if you can time the market is like arguing with someone from the opposite political party. Doesn't matter who's right, the other person isn't going to change their mind and your both worse off for having tried to convince the other.
What I will say is that academia has settled on the answer that one cannot accurately time the stock market. Many a thesis and statistics paper have been written on the subject with the vast majority coming down on that side and this is now the prevailing theory taught in schools.
For some further reading, the NBER published a paper here: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4890
and from U Chicago's The Journal of Business: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2352722?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
Or for a slightly easier read, Forbes offers: https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2016/03/07/the-myth-of-market-timing/#9ad412b461e6
In my experience from working in investment firms - I have yet to see even a single investment decision on the stated basis of trying to time the market, though I have seen people give other weak reasons instead of admitting that was their rationale.
Quoted from Adams:What I will say is that academia has settled on the answer that one cannot accurately time the stock market. Many a thesis and statistics paper have been written on the subject with the vast majority coming down on that side and this is now the prevailing theory taught in schools.
Perhaps context might help here. Can one time the top, and time the bottom of the market? Agreed no.
But if "academia" has decided that every day trader, swing trader, and options trader on the planet aren't "timing the stock market", then academia might want to cough up a reason why they're making billions doing just that.
Quoted from ExtremePinball:every day trader, swing trader, and options trader on the planet aren't "timing the stock market", then academia might want to cough up a reason why they're making billions doing just that.
Can you point me to some statistics corroborating that? My understanding is that "most" day traders fail to beat the market. In fact many just outright fail. Some of course will be huge successes...but not from any masterful insights, just the law of averages.
Quoted from Astropin:Can you point me to some statistics corroborating that? My understanding is that "most" day traders fail to beat the market. In fact many just outright fail. Some of course will be huge successes...but not from any masterful insights, just the law of averages.
True day traders are looking to make 2 cents on a trade...they just make thousands upon thousands of trades a year.
The average investor who tries to trade downright sucks at trading. At DOW 26,000, they want to go all in. At DOW 7,000, they went to get out. Most investors are irrational...hence, the need for financial advisors.
Quoted from Trekkie1978:True day traders are looking to make 2 cents on a trade...they just make thousands upon thousands of trades a year.
Okay? But I believe most "true day traders" still perform worse on average then just sticking their money in an S&P 500 index fund.
Quoted from jayhawkai:You know nothing, Jon Snow. It's the greatest wealth creator of the past century.
Actually Jon, that would be real estate. But thanks for playing, don't forget to pick up your door prize on the way out.
Quoted from ExtremePinball:Actually Jon, that would be real estate. But thanks for playing, don't forget to pick up your door prize on the way out.
No...the market.
Someone can take $5,000 and have wealth created it through the market. Can't get wealth creation on $5,000 of real estate.
Honestly, I'm still wanting to hear how the market is the biggest long term scam ever.
I've been buying and holding index funds since I was 23. I'm 44 now and I haven't been scammed yet. I've also never sold.
My investments are worth much more than when I started two decades ago. And that includes the dot com bubble, 9/11, and the 2008 mess. My money wasn't stolen from me via Wall Street during any of those gyrations.
???
Quoted from Trekkie1978:Can't get wealth creation on $5,000 of real estate.
Why not?
5k can easily get you a down payment on your first rental property or flip to get it all started. With some time and energy that can quickly snowball.
401k question for you guys. My 401k is way up right now, looking online it says my personal rate of return for the last year was 24%. I have 20 more years of work to go until retirement, that's the plan anyway right now. Most of my investments are in stocks. Should I convert a bunch of these over to bonds or money markets accounts while the market is high and then buy stocks again when the markets is low. Do people do this with their 401k's or just let it ride?
Quoted from MotorCityMatt:Do people do this with their 401k's or just let it ride?
Experts have always said to let it ride...
I personally have done well with moving things around and redistributing things once a year as I see fit. If there is another move like we had 10 years ago then I will push things over to bonds to weather the storm.
The experts are probably right in the longer term since that is the game you are playing with 20 years left.
Quoted from MotorCityMatt:401k question for you guys. My 401k is way up right now, looking online it says my personal rate of return for the last year was 24%. I have 20 more years of work to go until retirement, that's the plan anyway right now. Most of my investments are in stocks. Should I convert a bunch of these over to bonds or money markets accounts while the market is high and then buy stocks again when the markets is low. Do people do this with their 401k's or just let it ride?
The correct answer is to determine first what asset allocation you are comfortable with for your entire portfolio. Is it 90/10, 70/30, other?
Once you know that, it's simply a matter of doing an occasional rebalance once or twice a year if things skew.
If you rebalance, do so in a tax advantaged account so as not to incur taxes.
Quoted from Whysnow:Why not?
5k can easily get you a down payment on your first rental property or flip to get it all started. With some time and energy that can quickly snowball.
You still need to qualify for a loan...upkeep on the property...having it sit empty...thanks for being completely dishonest about real estate...but weren’t you the one who told everyone to stay in on Predator?
Quoted from MotorCityMatt:401k question for you guys. My 401k is way up right now, looking online it says my personal rate of return for the last year was 24%. I have 20 more years of work to go until retirement, that's the plan anyway right now. Most of my investments are in stocks. Should I convert a bunch of these over to bonds or money markets accounts while the market is high and then buy stocks again when the markets is low. Do people do this with their 401k's or just let it ride?
A lot of 401ks have age based allocations. I’d convert over to that ASAP.
Quoted from Trekkie1978:A lot of 401ks have age based allocations. I’d convert over to that ASAP.
A large block of my 401's are now being AI managed. I can set the "risk tolerance" parameters but then it takes over from there. Part of the risk parameters also ask about the time period you are looking at before retiring and it adjust the risks accordingly. So far so good.
I also have retirement funds in traditional "index funds" and also some being used for personal loans (Prosper) and a small amount in the crypto market....oh, and a little bit of physical gold.
Quoted from Trekkie1978:You still need to qualify for a loan...upkeep on the property...having it sit empty...thanks for being completely dishonest about real estate.
loan qualification is VERY easy if you are buying the right property to start. (may be harder in some areas but almost always possible to get assistance to get started if you are willing to be in a less desirable area at the start; cities have incentives, there are all sorts of government incentives, etc...)
General and simple rule is monthly expenses + 10%(in the kitty for repairs as needed) + 10%("profit' which really should sit in the kitty also till you get a few properties built up)
If you pick the right area, fix up the right house, and price it accordingly then properties wont sit empty.
For example in Madison the vacancy rate is actually 6%. Once adjusted for the 13% student population and vacant homes from summer when students leave, it comes out to around 3%. You are doing something wrong if you cant keep a place rented in this town. I typically have 6 good tenants in the first 24hrs of putting a place on the market.
I am not going to say it is easy work, but real estate has been killing it for my entire adult life. What I like about it is the fact that I have more control, I have a real physical asset, and it generates annual cash flow that is relatively insulated from global BS, a corrupt government, or big sways... I also dont want to have to wait till my 60s to retire and real estate should get me to "F you money" in my 40s.
This was a great past 12 months for stock market, but it is the ONLY year it has out performed real estate in the past 12 years for me personally.
My 2 most recent properties have increase 50% in value the past 2 years, I make positive cash flow each month, and I am chipping away at loans for the triple win of building my base.
My simple math plans lay out that almost any house I buy, I will be able to pay off the loan in under 12 years with just rental incomes and then it is all free money as far as I am concerned. The real fun kicks in once the loans are all paid off.
Best part about the equity of real estate is that it is very easy to borrow against. Granted I am nowhere near as aggressive as I should be in that way, but it is available when the next right deal pops up.
Quoted from PW79:I heard one good strategy is to do a TON of cocaine & then day trade on margin.
Has anyone tried that?
Can I do it with your money?
Quoted from Astropin:Can I do it with your money?
IPO tomorrow.
Let's chop some rails & ruin our lives!
Read this and pay attention 
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4138763-now-fat-lady-really-singing-bond-market
Quoted from MotorCityMatt:401k question for you guys. My 401k is way up right now, looking online it says my personal rate of return for the last year was 24%. I have 20 more years of work to go until retirement, that's the plan anyway right now. Most of my investments are in stocks. Should I convert a bunch of these over to bonds or money markets accounts while the market is high and then buy stocks again when the markets is low. Do people do this with their 401k's or just let it ride?
It's impossible to "time the market" It's time in the market that counts, not timing it.
401k's generally have shit bond options that don't allow you to combat "interest rate risk". High yields, Preferreds and Floating Rate bonds work better in a rising interest rate environment. The Bond index got woodshedded recently due to 10 yr rate spike.
20 yrs out and while you are still contributing every month (dollar cost averaging) you hope for buying opportunities. Move to cash when the market starts to teeter IF you want to try and time it a bit.
Read this
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4138763-now-fat-lady-really-singing-bond-market
Quoted from Pintucky:and movie theater (separate buildings) all paid in full already
I know this is completely off subject, but I'd love to see pictures of your theater. I built one in my basement and I love it!
Quoted from investingdad:There are people that have been waiting for a correction since 2016, I would not want to have missed the gains since then.
You cannot time the market regardless of whatever timeline you want to use.
naw, your right. That's why Warren Buffet is sitting on more cash right now than he's ever held.... You right. buy in now. buy buy buy.... I hear Bitcoin is gonna be big.... better not miss out...
Never said I was out of the market waiting for a correction, Said its worth skimming profits to have cash on hand for when the fall comes. (and it will) Was just offering a more conservative viewpoint for those of us not chasing huge returns at great risk. But by all means, continue your fair weather enthusiasm.
Quoted from scarybeard:naw, your right. That's why Warren Buffet is sitting on more cash right now than he's ever held.... You right. buy in now. buy buy buy.... I hear Bitcoin is gonna be big.... better not miss out...
Never said I was out of the market waiting for a correction, Said its worth skimming profits to have cash on hand for when the fall comes. (and it will) Was just offering a more conservative viewpoint for those of us not chasing huge returns at great risk. But by all means, continue your fair weather enthusiasm.
If you've read my posts, you will well know I advocate low cost index funds with a bond and equity mix that aligns with your age and risk tolerance. I've never been on the band wagon of bitcoin, nor do I believe the run up in the broad market is sustainable. But I don't advocate selling because I cannot predict the future. I do not advocate chasing high risk at any cost, but have always said to buy broadly and stay the course. I did not sell in 1999, 2008, and I'm not selling now.
I am, however, in my mid 40s and considering retiring in my very early 50s. You can draw whatever conclusions you like about that and how the investment strategy I've used since I was 23, and outlined above, got me here.
I share this because I want others to know that investing is remarkably simple, making it complicated is what costs most private investors money. Living below your means is also very important.
I will also add that there are a few basic ways to invest.
One is doing detailed analysis of a company, determining there is value, and buying a position. And eventually selling. This process needs to be repeated again and again and requires a high level of talent and intelligence. I doubt most private investors are doing this. Buffet is an example of somebody who has managed to do this over a lifetime.
If you're not doing the above, you are most likely simply placing what is little more than a wager, buying and selling when it feels right to you. Timing. This is not sustainable and will eventually lead to under performance.
Or, you buy everything, hold it forever, and accept average market return...outperforming almost all active investors over time.
Ultimately, I don't care what any of you do, but I wish you best success. Good luck.
Quoted from investingdad:I am, however, in my mid 40s and considering retiring in my very early 50s.
Sounds like you've been taken in by the biggest scam in the world, the stock market!
Quoted from jayhawkai:Sounds like you've been taken in by the biggest scam in the world, the stock market!
Poor poor wealthy guy. 
Quoted from investingdad:One is doing detailed analysis of a company, determining there is value, and buying a position. And eventually selling. This process needs to be repeated again and again and requires a high level of talent and intelligence. I doubt most private investors are doing this. Buffet is an example of somebody who has managed to do this over a lifetime.
Except Buffet is "buy and hold". Sometimes to his detriment with IBM and not Apple until last year but clearly if you identify great companies, buy and hold, buy MORE on the dips that's how you build long term wealth, especially just starting out.
"Buy when others are fearful and sell when others are greedy".
With $105 Billion in cash, Berkshire is a good way to hedge against a market that many think is "overvalued".
I don’t think the market is overvalued. DJIA P/E is only 23. That’s not bubble territory. Plus, stocks trade based on future earnings, not past earnings.
That #&@*%!#*& stock market tanked today!!!!!!! I watched the DOW just keep going negative, like a pinball score counter, but backward! Just kept zinging to negative numbers! Right when I was doing so well, I had thought of cashing in in April or May. Hell, it will probably now take until June to just get back up to near where it was. Or, it could just keep on going downhill all next week long. One little fuckin' political comment, a release of a FBI memo, the Feds just talking about a possible interest rate hike, or the price of tampons going up . . . that's all it takes and then . . . WHAMO! Cocksuckers who sell out like that so quickly should be tied and horse whipped!!!
Drop of ~2.5% is nothing, in one day Black Monday in 1987 stocks dropped 22% that would be like wiping out most of last years gains.
Quoted from Pintucky:That #&@*%!#*& stock market tanked today!!!!!!! I watched the DOW just keep going negative, like a pinball score counter, but backward! Just kept zinging to negative numbers! Right when I was doing so well, I had thought of cashing in in April or May. Hell, it will probably now take until June to just get back up to near where it was. Or, it could just keep on going downhill all next week long. One little fuckin' political comment, a release of a FBI memo, the Feds just talking about a possible interest rate hike, or the price of tampons going up . . . that's all it takes and then . . . WHAMO! Cocksuckers who sell out like that so quickly should be tied and horse whipped!!!
With all due respect, if this small drop has that kind of outsized impact on your retirement...i would question whether your strategy is appropriate or situation as secure as you believe.
Quoted from investingdad:if this small drop has that kind of outsized impact on your retirement
This isn't exactly my retirement. This stock was my plan to pay off a certain rather large debt. I was getting really close to my goal and then this happened. It's my age . . . . I'm somewhere between 70 and death. Once the debt is paid off, I can rest and be debt free. I just want the market to stay stable.
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