Stock Market Traders?

(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?


By kpg

1 year ago



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    There are 1048 posts in this topic. You are on page 11 of 21.
    #501 1 year ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    No it's not
    Greatest advice I've heard from old timers like Cooperman and Dalio
    "Let your winners run, and be quick to sell your losers"

    Read "The Intelligent Investor" ... that should be part of your strategy. Big companies like VISA (used to be Coca-Cola, McDonalds, etc) should be part of your foundation. IMO recently that has shifted to those low cost index funds making WAY more sense, but you shoudl still believe in and hold big companies like VISA. they're not going away any time soon

    #502 1 year ago
    Quoted from Rdoyle1978:

    Read "The Intelligent Investor" ... that should be part of your strategy. Big companies like VISA (used to be Coca-Cola, McDonalds, etc) should be part of your foundation. IMO recently that has shifted to those low cost index funds making WAY more sense, but you shoudl still believe in and hold big companies like VISA. they're not going away any time soon

    With online retail being one of the few areas of retail growth V MA PayPal all will see growth for yr to come

    #503 1 year ago
    Quoted from JY64:

    With online retail being one of the few areas of retail growth V MA PayPal all will see growth for yr to come

    everything you know (online retail are going to grow in the years to come) is already be priced into the stock price.

    It's not like Apple year 2000 when they had just computes and software and that was all that was known, then Apple came out with new products like iPod, iPad, iPhone and their stock has gone up from $1.6/share to $156/share since 2001.

    This is accounting for stock splits, but does not include ~$12 in dividends.

    So what I'm saying is yes online sales is going up but that does not mean Amazon, PayPal etc stock will go crazy up because all this is already known and priced into the stock price.

    Everything that is known now is priced into the stock price (future earnings). If a stock is in a stagnate or shrinking market (say cigarettes the is already know too and priced into the stock price). It's not like it will be a surprise if cigarette sales decline they have been for years/decades. It's not a surprise that Amazon sales is doing better than Sears for example, this is already know and priced into the stock.

    Cigarette is not a growing industry used to be 43% of Americans smoked in the 1960s it's down to less than 20%. But that does not mean the cigarette stocks have been poor performers, they have been able to raise prices and buy back stocks EPS is steady as well as pay high dividends (almost 80% of profits) so they are important as income producers while Amazon or some growth stocks (Tesla etc,,) have to pay tons for R&D, expansion, infrastructure to keep growing and pay no dividends. But they are not just growing and not spending money.

    I am not trying to argue that you should buy cigarette companies but just to point out that it is not only important to buy into a growing area. Any stock can be profitable and even a stock in a growing area such as cell phone or internet can lose money. Look at Yahoo was once 100x greater than Google and Blackberry or Nokia were once growing businesses.

    #504 1 year ago
    Quoted from rai:

    I disagree for myself. I believe I do better than an advisor who takes money out for his advice and may have ulterior motives to recommend some thing that pay better but probably are no better than low cost index funds.
    I believe advisers are looking out for themselves (first)

    Financial advisors are to me like weathermen, they don't know anything about where the market is headed and yet they will take a cut no matter if they are right or wrong.

    I'm late getting into this thread and only have read the first 2 pages. But I certainly agree with you on what you said (above). I had a young investor at a bank to give me investing advice, and I lost my ass on three big purchases. After 2 years of working with him, I saw that my own amateur analysis was better than his! I took all my funds out of that place and invested them individually myself with USAA (retired military here). I have done remarkably well over the years. I've grown a small portfolio of $32,000 into nearly a half million today! During that time I had 3 companies to go bankrupt and I lost a few thousand dollars. HOWEVER, I hit it big time with a couple of stocks that I bought dirt cheap that SOARED in 1 or 2 years time and made me many thousand when they were bought out by bigger companies, which amply negated my losses.

    Your 'weatherman' comment is very appropriate for me. Prior to THAT guy, I was using a young woman who was also very unskilled. After she worked as a broker for 2 years, she became our local WEATHER (Woman)!!! She could now use her 'investment brains' to forecast the weather!

    If anyone has read this far (because I tend to get long-winded), my wife recently quit her job and had to do something with a $40,000 401k. I rolled it over into an IRA at USAA Bank and it is parked there, as of yesterday, making about 0% interest. I want to find some new investment(s) for this by Monday so it gets to 'working'. I went through her investment portfolio with the bank she had it in, and I don't know how in hell they made THOSE picks! None of them yielded over 1% in dividends and about half of them had not made any money in the last 5 years! These were big name funds: Vanguard, Franklin, Dodge & Cox, etc.

    Anyone here can recommend an Aggressive Growth Fund (not concerned about risks) that pays a hefty dividend? She wants it parked in some kind of 'Fund' that she thinks will live forever without any failures, while I'm thinking of putting half of it in ETF's and half in REITS. Any comments highly APPRECIATED!!!

    Mike in Kentucky

    #505 1 year ago
    Quoted from rai:

    Additionally you can give $14K per person per year, so if you are married and you have two married children you could give tax free 14x2x4 or $112K per year tax free before you die plus more if you include other relatives.

    I'm hoping YOU "rai" can answer this.

    I have a 29 year old son who has borrowed money from me over the years and I've finally determined I will never get it back! I have it documented in my computer, the date, the amount, and what he borrowed it for. Do you think I could knock off $14,000 for the next few tax years as 'gifts'? In essence, I'm GIVING it to him! What mechanism do you use to verify you gave the gift? Is it just one of the tax forms from the IRS?

    Thanks,
    Mike in Kentucky

    #506 1 year ago
    Quoted from rai:

    everything you know (online retail are going to grow in the years to come) is already be priced into the stock price.
    It's not like Apple year 2000 when they had just computes and software and that was all that was known, then Apple came out with new products like iPod, iPad, iPhone and their stock has gone up from $1.6/share to $156/share since 2001.
    This is accounting for stock splits, but does not include ~$12 in dividends.
    So what I'm saying is yes online sales is going up but that does not mean Amazon, PayPal etc stock will go crazy up because all this is already known and priced into the stock price.
    Everything that is known now is priced into the stock price (future earnings). If a stock is in a stagnate or shrinking market (say cigarettes the is already know too and priced into the stock price). It's not like it will be a surprise if cigarette sales decline they have been for years/decades. It's not a surprise that Amazon sales is doing better than Sears for example, this is already know and priced into the stock.
    Cigarette is not a growing industry used to be 43% of Americans smoked in the 1960s it's down to less than 20%. But that does not mean the cigarette stocks have been poor performers, they have been able to raise prices and buy back stocks EPS is steady as well as pay high dividends (almost 80% of profits) so they are important as income producers while Amazon or some growth stocks (Tesla etc,,) have to pay tons for R&D, expansion, infrastructure to keep growing and pay no dividends. But they are not just growing and not spending money.
    I am not trying to argue that you should buy cigarette companies but just to point out that it is not only important to buy into a growing area. Any stock can be profitable and even a stock in a growing area such as cell phone or internet can lose money. Look at Yahoo was once 100x greater than Google and Blackberry or Nokia were once growing businesses.

    MA with %19 eps growth %36.5 pe is all good

    AMZN with a PE over 250 is a very different beast

    As for you apple at $1.6 a share my MA cost is under $5 a share

    saying that cell phones are a growth sector is funny

    #507 1 year ago
    Quoted from Pintucky:

    I'm hoping YOU "rai" can answer this.
    I have a 29 year old son who has borrowed money from me over the years and I've finally determined I will never get it back! I have it documented in my computer, the date, the amount, and what he borrowed it for. Do you think I could knock off $14,000 for the next few tax years as 'gifts'? In essence, I'm GIVING it to him! What mechanism do you use to verify you gave the gift? Is it just one of the tax forms from the IRS?
    Thanks,
    Mike in Kentucky

    I would not try and take a deduction you do not deserve . If you get audited and there is no cancelled check to your son it will draw attention . Remember with the IRS you are guilty until proven innocent

    #508 1 year ago
    Quoted from Pintucky:

    I'm hoping YOU "rai" can answer this.
    I have a 29 year old son who has borrowed money from me over the years and I've finally determined I will never get it back! I have it documented in my computer, the date, the amount, and what he borrowed it for. Do you think I could knock off $14,000 for the next few tax years as 'gifts'? In essence, I'm GIVING it to him! What mechanism do you use to verify you gave the gift? Is it just one of the tax forms from the IRS?
    Thanks,
    Mike in Kentucky

    Mike, email me!

    #509 1 year ago
    Quoted from JY64:

    saying that cell phones are a growth sector is funny

    don't believe I said cell phones are a growing sector, I said phones were once a growing business (notice once).

    I said Apple introduced iPod iPad and iPhone all three didn't exist at one time so they all were placed on top of whatever else Apple was usually selling (in addition Apple also now has service which is App Store, storage etc.. which I believe has sales of several Billion a year).

    You can see that APPL PE is priced closer to a utility company than a growth company. It may no longer grow sales (maybe a few percentage a year). But I mean it's like General Mills selling Cheerios. They might not sell any more but as long as they still sell it they are making profit. If Apple sells $300B in phones and takes in $100B in profit it doesn't matter if it's growing or not growing.

    #510 1 year ago
    Quoted from Pintucky:

    I'm late getting into this thread and only have read the first 2 pages. But I certainly agree with you on what you said (above). I had a young investor at a bank to give me investing advice, and I lost my ass on three big purchases. After 2 years of working with him, I saw that my own amateur analysis was better than his! I took all my funds out of that place and invested them individually myself with USAA (retired military here). I have done remarkably well over the years. I've grown a small portfolio of $32,000 into nearly a half million today! During that time I had 3 companies to go bankrupt and I lost a few thousand dollars. HOWEVER, I hit it big time with a couple of stocks that I bought dirt cheap that SOARED in 1 or 2 years time and made me many thousand when they were bought out by bigger companies, which amply negated my losses.
    Your 'weatherman' comment is very appropriate for me. Prior to THAT guy, I was using a young woman who was also very unskilled. After she worked as a broker for 2 years, she became our local WEATHER (Woman)!!! She could now use her 'investment brains' to forecast the weather!
    If anyone has read this far (because I tend to get long-winded), my wife recently quit her job and had to do something with a $40,000 401k. I rolled it over into an IRA at USAA Bank and it is parked there, as of yesterday, making about 0% interest. I want to find some new investment(s) for this by Monday so it gets to 'working'. I went through her investment portfolio with the bank she had it in, and I don't know how in hell they made THOSE picks! None of them yielded over 1% in dividends and about half of them had not made any money in the last 5 years! These were big name funds: Vanguard, Franklin, Dodge & Cox, etc.
    Anyone here can recommend an Aggressive Growth Fund (not concerned about risks) that pays a hefty dividend? She wants it parked in some kind of 'Fund' that she thinks will live forever without any failures, while I'm thinking of putting half of it in ETF's and half in REITS. Any comments highly APPRECIATED!!!
    Mike in Kentucky

    Mike

    please don't think of myself being a great investor. I think (may have said it earlier) the biggest thing that determines your net worth is *how much you save* and how early you start saving.

    Also you can NOT say someone gave you bad advice, but now you are doing better without looking at the time period.

    If you had invested in 2006-8 you would have lost money (most likely) Warren Buffett did everybody did. it wasn't the bad advice it was a bad market. Now if you had invested in the past 4-5 years it's hard to not make money. I believe one account I have went up 20% last year and I didn't do anything I just had in US and International ETFs. I mean I didn't do anything I just had the money sitting there.

    It's the same thing if I looked at my accounts in 2007-8 I could have been down 5% one month. It just depends on what the market does.

    I am not actually recommending any individual stocks. I do have some individual stocks because I bought them 10 years ago and selling them I'd have to pay taxes in huge capital gains. But if I were recommending to a new investor I'd say buy low cost ETFs that are broadly diversified US and international and just keep buying more as time goes.

    This is not sexy like buying AAPL at $1.6 and getting rich, but it's the like the old turtle and ant hair story (get rich slowly).

    That's my advice. Just look at Bogglehead.org (financial forum) and they have a lot of advice there books or wiki articles etc..

    a) make more money than you spend
    b) invest
    c) repeat
    d) easy street

    #511 1 year ago
    Quoted from Pintucky:

    I'm hoping YOU "rai" can answer this.
    I have a 29 year old son who has borrowed money from me over the years and I've finally determined I will never get it back! I have it documented in my computer, the date, the amount, and what he borrowed it for. Do you think I could knock off $14,000 for the next few tax years as 'gifts'? In essence, I'm GIVING it to him! What mechanism do you use to verify you gave the gift? Is it just one of the tax forms from the IRS?
    Thanks,
    Mike in Kentucky

    Your son doesn't count as a 501c3.

    #512 1 year ago

    Trade I made on Tuesday.

    Sold 3 Amazon January 2018 915 puts for $22.37

    NOTE: I did not buy back the November 960 Amazon puts.

    #513 1 year ago

    Please note the market has been doing well and everyone is happy.

    But this is not really something that's all sunshine and roses. The more we go up, the more overpriced the stock market is and when we buy more stocks we buying at a higher price.

    So in reality although we all love DOW 23000 it's not the end of the world if stocks went down or sideways.

    Buffett said something like he likes to eat hamburgers and he's going to eat hamburgers all his life. It's better for him if prices go down or sideways on hamburgers he can buy them on sale. Same with stocks. If you are saving and will be owning buying stocks for the next 30, 40, 50 years you don't want them to go up every year non stop. This pushes the PE higher that is a real correlation to forward gains.

    Suppose Stocks make 7-8% overall for the last 105 years. If you are in a time where they are all the sudden making 10-14% a year for years on end that will have to lead to a correction where maybe stocks will only make 3% for many years but over time the figure will be 7-8%

    Amazon is worth what $500B

    The entire US stock market is worth $25 Trillion

    Amazon is worth 1/50 of the whole US market.

    Amazon is not a bad company, Apple (market cap $800B) is not a bad company.

    But they just don't have that much head room.

    I don't say Amazon or Apple is priced too high they still *can* grow and can also give dividends (Apple does 1.6% div but they could give more).

    Anyway if you are an investor for the long term you will see good times (hello 2017) and you will see bad times (hello 1987) and you will see in between times. Don't presume if your stock picks are doing well that means you are a genius stock picker. We have one Warren Buffett and we have some other smart people who have made fortunes in the stock market but it's not easy and it can have some element of luck timing etc. Better to play it safe try to take a walk or single rather than swing for the fence.

    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    Trade I made on Tuesday.
    Sold 3 Amazon January 2018 915 puts for $22.37
    NOTE: I did not buy back the November 960 Amazon puts.

    thanks for giving me these trades. I have been selling AMZN puts as well but a little farther out of the money. I don't really post my trades because they are small beans (compared with yours) and also I don't do any intensive research so I don't want to assume to anyone that my bets are good for them. I have had some stinkers lately too.

    #514 1 year ago
    Quoted from rai:

    (Apple does 1.6% div but they could give more).

    I never look at div yield as a stock that preforms well pushes yield down. Also many high yield stocks like T grow only %2 yr average yield stock ITW grow %15 yr

    Quoted from rai:

    to a new investor I'd say buy low cost ETFs that are broadly diversified US and international and just keep buying more as time goes.

    #515 1 year ago
    Quoted from JY64:

    I never look at div yield as a stock that preforms well pushes yield down.

    I am not saying Apple has a good or bad dividend, I was just pointing out that if you look at the return on investment you can not just look at the stock price and see what you made.

    This would be like if DOW was at 10K and 10K 5 years later and saying you didn't make anything in the market. But you did if you consider ~ 2% dividends.

    I think some people like to be traders (I mean in and out of stocks making money by trading. I do that some but with options. With my stocks I am mostly an investor meaning that I hope to own the stocks for a long time or forever and dividends are a big reason to me, that I get paid part of the profits of the companies I own. (note with ETFs it's entirely possible to own the ETF forever because you don't have single stock risks). I say own forever but I mean until I sell my funds per of a retirement plan (401K etc,, the reason I am saving and investing is so I can retire and live off my savings rather than my paychecks).

    I don't clam to say only dividend stocks are better or worse than growth stocks, but dividends are good and eventually a company will become big enough and can't grow so they will start giving dividends such as Apple and Microsoft etc.. I can't say about Google or Amazon but some time in the future they may have more cash than they need to grow and they will either use it to buy other companies or return money to shareholders by dividends

    According to a report from credit rating agency Standard and Poor's, over the last 80 years dividends have been responsible for 44% of S&P 500 returns. Specifically, from the end of 1929 through March 2, 2012, an investment in the S&P 500 would have returned 5.2% per annum excluding income, a modest return. If you include income, the index has returned 9.4% per annum

    #516 1 year ago

    any thoughts on BABA India's version of AMZN . It's been hitting new highs and has a nice cup and handle chart formation .

    #517 1 year ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    ETF's trade like a stock. Another benefit of them versus mutual funds, you get to control your taxes much better via tax harvesting this time of year. Can't do that with a mutual fund.
    ETF's trade instantly, mutual funds settle at the end of the day.

    I religiously follow the stock market, and I semi-religiously follow YOU on Pinside! Seriously, I've read most everything you've posted on Pinside, and it is obvious, you are a pretty smart fellow, even if you ARE a lawyer who can imbibe a bit much! Ha.

    I have learned A LOT on this thread (just started reading yesterday), more than I have by reading any book, and it appears you and I think much alike on what we should or not be purchasing in the market.

    I have dabbled in stock for years and have had some good luck. But I sure do my research. I've got a few ETF's. It took me a long time to figure out why I didn't need to tie up money in Mutual Funds and put it in ETF's. And today, YOU CONFIRMED my beliefs. Thanks for your reassuring comments!
    Mike in Kentucky

    #518 1 year ago
    Quoted from rai:

    I'd say buy low cost ETFs that are broadly diversified US and international and just keep buying more as time goes.

    I would say you are right. And comments "iceman44" made also boost this primes. I had already pretty much decided to do the ETF route.

    All your comments are very candid and on the money (no pun intended!)
    Thanks . . . and I'll be reading your "Investment Newsletter" here on Pinside!

    Now . . . if ANYONE has a hot tip on an ETF that has share prices under $50 and pays a nice dividend, please respond. I read, weigh, analyze it all before I make any decisions. But there are bound to be some good ones out there that I am not aware of.
    Mike in Kentucky

    #519 1 year ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    Your son doesn't count as a 501c3.

    Ha! Good one! He is the largest non-profit organization I know!

    Mike

    P.S. I accidentally drained you (hit a mystery button somewhere) and then did the "undo". If you saw it, don't think I took offense. Was just clumsy!

    #520 1 year ago
    ???

    If you mean BABA, as in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA), then I think it is a winner. I bought it when it first hit the market for about $89.00 a share (September, 2014). It is now hovering around $175.00.

    I only put $5,000.00 in it based on a gut feeling it could be one of those 'break-out' stocks. It was a gamble, but after reading a lot about it, I decided it was something worth to gamble ON! And that is how I looked at it. I had enough gainers that I was ready for the roll of the dice. I put the money in there and sort of forgot it. I DID check the market each week, and it went down almost exactly one year later to the day I bought it to $64.00! Yeah, I started having doubts, but I still wasn't convinced it was a loser; just not had enough time to 'mature'. I didn't sell it to cut losses and I'm glad I stuck with it.

    I do think it will keep on growing. The same way with Ten Cent Holdings. It has performed well for me. It's a similar company.

    Mike in Kentucky

    #521 1 year ago
    Quoted from Pintucky:

    I would say you are right. And comments "iceman44" made also boost this primes. I had already pretty much decided to do the ETF route.
    All your comments are very candid and on the money (no pun intended!)
    Thanks . . . and I'll be reading your "Investment Newsletter" here on Pinside!
    Now . . . if ANYONE has a hot tip on an ETF that has share prices under $50 and pays a nice dividend, please respond. I read, weigh, analyze it all before I make any decisions. But there are bound to be some good ones out there that I am not aware of.
    Mike in Kentucky

    When *I* say low cost ETF I'm talking about index funds. With index funds you don't need to pick or get recommended because they are all the same, except the expense ratios. So I just buy Vanguard (although there is a price war and some may be cheaper now like Schwab or Fidelity). But really the ER are very low for most index ETFs. It's really a price war, people shop for the lower cost and it does not matter if it's Schwab, Vanguard, Fidelity whoever's S&P500 Index fund will contain the same stocks and get the same returns.

    What Ice was referring to is tax loss harvesting and I think it's the only closest thing to a free lunch as there is in investing. (I'm in a super high tax bracket so anything I can use to lower my tax bill is appreciated, and I trade options so that is always taxed at the highest tax rate for me, so any tax loss harvesting saves me like 40% of whatever loss I had).

    suppose I owned XOM stock and had a loss of $5000 and wanted to capture that loss to offset gains. I could sell XOM but could not buy it back for 31 days or I would be causing a wash sale: can not buy a substantially identical security and still use the loss.

    However if I had a number of shares in S&P500 (ETF) and you had a $5000 loss, I *can* sell it and immediately use the money to buy the same value of ETF that is similar but not identical. That means I could buy Total US ETF or Russell 1000 index ETF.

    I could buy the same day and not be out of the market for any time in case the market goes up I'm not sitting on the sideline for 31 days.

    S&P500 vs Russell 1000 are not identical (for wash rule) but for investment purposes they are interchangeable.

    There are active ETFs or ETFs that do things like leverage volatility, but these are not recommended by me, these are bets like stock picking or mutual fund picking.

    With index funds there is no picking, you just decide on an asset allocation such as 80% US and 20% developed international *or* 70% US, 20% International 10% emerging markets.

    So you pick an asset allocation and just buy whatever funds you need to true up the percentages.

    I think Vanguard has some of the lowest fees on index ETFs so that's what I use and if you invest at Vanguard they don't charge any trading fees for their own ETFs so if you want to buy 1 share, you just buy 1 share it doesn't cost anything to trade.

    #522 1 year ago

    I am going to go back and read over entire thread, but I have 6 more years I think until retirement so looking at my investments a lot more closely. Luckily was smart enough to put money in 401K since I was hired 30 years ago. I recently put a big chunk into AT&T. It was 43 at the time and only going up i thought. Naturally its slid back down in the past 6 months. But they are safe, give dividends, have diversified into Direct TV, and have Time Warner deal on the table. If truth be told, I thought the pokemon craze would boost stocks since everyone would be going to unlimited data plan. Now that it slid, I am not panicing, just means I get more shares for less with my allotted money. The rest of 401K I am going to let fidelity choose my stocks, but I did say no to international stocks, I just think world is too crazy right now.
    Trump wants to cut corporate tax which I think is fantastic. My girlfriend thinks upper management is just going to increase their bonuses with the money, my friend, VP of BIG company says they would definitely reinvest that money. So who knows. I would like to retire early. Worms and golfballs dont cost a fortune and my hundai is good enough to get me around. Which is also why I dont have any of the newer pins when I can go to modern pinball in NY and play all I want for peanuts.

    #523 1 year ago

    Just read thru thread, very interesting. Also tells me to let the pros handle my account. I thought oil would never go down when it was sky high a year ago. Figured everyone needs it, it can only go up. I also thought gold would stay high. Luckily I didn't invest in those 2, but I would have if I had the money. I plan on collecting ss asap. As i told my mother, when she was 65, she was wasting 2 years of collecting while waiting for the max. It would take 20 years of collecting to make up for the waiting.(My math is not spot on, too tired to get it exact). I dont plan on living past 75. Too much radiation from tv as a youth and too much alcohol. When push comes to shove I can get by on very little. Enjoying life and not sitting behind a desk is worth a few financial sacrifices, like not getting the latest Pin or driving a porsche. I can always rent a porsche when I have the urge and go to arcades with a handful of quarters. But I can also get by on first person shooter games on PC. But plans can change in an instant, which is why insurance is a must.

    #524 1 year ago

    Does anyone sell covered calls? I took a few classes in it a while back and have done it a few times, but want to get back into it. It seems to work best in a bull market, and my feeling is there is going to be a correction in 2018. I'd like to identify a technique for a bear market. I was told selling puts can be effective in those times, but I'd have to research that.

    3 weeks later
    #525 11 months ago
    Quoted from rai:

    Amazon is worth 1/50 of the whole US market.
    Amazon is not a bad company, Apple (market cap $800B) is not a bad company.
    But they just don't have that much head room.

    With stock buy backs and stock splits there is much room to run

    #526 11 months ago
    Quoted from Rdoyle1978:

    Read "The Intelligent Investor" ... that should be part of your strategy. Big companies like VISA (used to be Coca-Cola, McDonalds, etc) should be part of your foundation. IMO recently that has shifted to those low cost index funds making WAY more sense, but you shoudl still believe in and hold big companies like VISA. they're not going away any time soon

    Love Visa, owned it for quite a while now

    Core holding

    Apple is huge core holding, add on dips, make lots of $$$

    RCL and CCl trading at 17x earnings, like Apple, big discount to market, pays a dividend AND baby boomer retiring are loading up on cruises! New big ships coming online next 5 yrs

    JPM, BAC and the XLF. Financials will be good defensive play as rates rise in 2018

    Energy off its lows. I’ll take EPD pipeline for its 6.5% div which has increased for 10 yrs

    And EEM and VWO, emerging markets. Behind our markets in recovery and rate tightening

    Time for me to get defensive WHEN the 10 yr treasury tops or approaches 2.6%

    Inflation and rising rates will be a major headwind for stocks next yr

    So that also means you have to manage the interest rate risk with bonds. Rates go up, bonds go down

    Thus it’s Floating rate, High Yield and preferreds for me. FPE and HYLS yield about 5.5% PLUS you will make $$ on the position as rates rise

    #527 11 months ago
    Quoted from JY64:

    With stock buy backs and stock splits there is much room to run

    Haha yep. A LONG way to run. Don’t forget tax reform, repatriation and continued growth in ecosystem along with cloud, AR and everything else in the pipeline we don’t know about

    About 15 months ago Apple was trading at $95, HUGE buying opportunity, now of course its $175 and still trading at a big discount to the market

    Long term no brainer, buy on dips

    #528 11 months ago
    Quoted from JY64:

    With stock buy backs and stock splits there is much room to run

    Stock splits have nothing to do with the market cap. It’s funny some people still think that the cost of one share has anything to do with the value of the company. Like to say Google after a 2 split now at $900/share is any different than if no split and it was $1800/share.

    Buy backs are just spending cash or borrowing money to lower the number of shares, still same overall value before or after split or buyback.

    #529 11 months ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    Haha yep. A LONG way to run. Don’t forget tax reform, repatriation and continued growth in ecosystem along with cloud, AR and everything else in the pipeline we don’t know about

    Things like cloud ecosystem is already factored in it’s not selling on current sales it’s selling on future growth hence the high PE

    Things like tax cuts are being priced in already notice the surge since the election? That’s business frendly environment being factored in, buy the rumor sell the news.

    #530 11 months ago

    I've gone 75% cash until we get a pull back. With the market as overpriced as it is, and the tax reform stuff not a sure thing, I'd rather miss out on a minor bump up than be on board for a big drop.

    I did buy half a position of TGT today... its been trending up, with a 12PE and 4% dividend triggering next week I figure its worth the risk for a few months. see how it shakes out over the holidays.

    my biggest holding right now is a double position of DIS. Picked it up at $98 last month and intend to hold for the next 3-5 years and see how it's new streaming service works for it. wondering how ESPN might play into that. They also will be ramping up for some climactic moments in their franchises, 'Infinity Gauntlet' for marvel, and the end of the Star wars trilogy. I'm real hopeful for Disney in the next 3-5 years.

    ETF that has been most solid for me over the past year has been ROBO. that little guy just keeps marching upward. I feel bad skimming profits off the top every couple of months, but I don't even know what volatility looks like for that ETF... would love to buy more after a pull back.

    #531 11 months ago
    Quoted from rai:

    Things like cloud ecosystem is already factored in it’s not selling on current sales it’s selling on future growth hence the high PE
    Things like tax cuts are being priced in already notice the surge since the election? That’s business frendly environment being factored in, buy the rumor sell the news.

    Not yet. That's also what they said about the iPhone 8 announcement in September, "buy the rumor and sell the news", and the market gave us another gift to buy lower.

    Every stock trades on future earnings potential, not 12 months trailing PE. That said Apple, at 19x earnings today is trading at a HUGE discount to the S&P500 at 25.89x today. The median historical average is 14.87x

    Now there are many other valuation methods to look at, Price to sales, Price to free cash flow (markets are even more overvalued on that basis) but not Apple which generates mountains of free cash flow, forward PE, dividend adjusted etc.

    I used to think tax cuts were already priced into the market at this point, not so much anymore, maybe to some extent.

    It's 3%+ GDP growth driven by sensible deregulation and the resulting great earnings. Tax reform will help underpin this but multinational companies like Apple already pay a lower effective tax rate than US only companies like O'Reilly.

    What isn't factored in is the "repatriation" of $$$ from overseas at a proposed tax rate of 5%! Wow. That alone drives Apple stock up another $10-15 per share.

    The GROWTH of the Services aspect of Apple is why the stock has exploded, its not about future iPhone sales, although selling 85 million X models in the quarter doesn't hurt.

    What's also not factored in is what will they BUY with their 250 Billion cash horde? Disney, Netflix? Who knows.

    And the one of the biggest factors, they just leapfrogged everybody else on AR (augmented reality).

    Plus, what else do they have in the pipeline over the next 3-5 yrs that can't be disclosed that we don't know about. They get the best talent in the world and have the most $$$.

    Anyhow, my "buy on the rumor and sell on the news" moment will likely come after the Christmas quarters earning report. It will be a BLOWOUT quarter again and if previous cycles play out on these major upgrade cycles, that will be the time to sell and buy back in later.

    When you factor in all of the market valuation methods it is deemed mildly overvalued right now.

    If interest rates blow through 2.75% on the 10 yr treasury on up to 3% next year and inflation keeps ticking up, including wage inflation, yes its real, then I'd expect a decent selloff.

    #532 11 months ago
    Quoted from scarybeard:

    ETF that has been most solid for me over the past year has been ROBO. that little guy just keeps marching upward. I feel bad skimming profits off the top every couple of months, but I don't even know what volatility looks like for that ETF... would love to buy more after a pull back.

    I've ridden Cognex and Rockwell in that sector, 2 of the top ten holdings in ROBO. 95 basis points is an expensive ETF when the cost of ownership of the individual stock is zero but you do have a lot more diversification if you don't have the time to try and pick best in breed.

    Let's see what Disney earnings look like on Thursday. Not a huge fan with the ESPN fallout continuing BUT, the fact that they are pulling their content from Netflix could mean it might mean another monthly pay service like Netflix and including ESPN?

    #533 11 months ago
    Quoted from scarybeard:

    I've gone 75% cash until we get a pull back. With the market as overpriced as it is, and the tax reform stuff not a sure thing, I'd rather miss out on a minor bump up than be on board for a big drop

    I've move around 75% to cash as well. I'm extremely long in the market 30 years or so. I'll let %25 of my money grow. The market will correct on the next 3 years then I'll slowly drop my money back in.

    I did buy Verizon yesterday after the 4% drop. I'm long on VZ.

    #534 11 months ago
    Quoted from Vdrums:

    Does anyone sell covered calls? I took a few classes in it a while back and have done it a few times, but want to get back into it. It seems to work best in a bull market, and my feeling is there is going to be a correction in 2018. I'd like to identify a technique for a bear market. I was told selling puts can be effective in those times, but I'd have to research that.

    Covered calls are good for larger positions, you are basically just renting your stock for a time period. They work in any market. In a bear market you collect the rent and the stock never gets called away from you. The risk in this bull market is your stock getting called away from you if it runs past the strike price. Can't lose either way.

    Buying puts in a bear market is what makes you $$$ if you can get the duration and strike price right.

    One of my favorite leverage plays are LEAPS, long term options. If I think the market is going to tank over the next 2 years but not sure when I'd buy a long term LEAP, basically a leveraged put option, you can lose it all or make a ton.

    #535 11 months ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    Not yet. That's also what they said about the iPhone 8 announcement in September, "buy the rumor and sell the news", and the market gave us another gift to buy lower.
    Every stock trades on future earnings potential, not 12 months trailing PE. That said Apple, at 19x earnings today is trading at a HUGE discount to the S&P500 at 25.89x today. The median historical average is 14.87x
    Now there are many other valuation methods to look at, Price to sales, Price to free cash flow (markets are even more overvalued on that basis) but not Apple which generates mountains of free cash flow, forward PE, dividend adjusted etc.
    I used to think tax cuts were already priced into the market at this point, not so much anymore, maybe to some extent.
    It's 3%+ GDP growth driven by sensible deregulation and the resulting great earnings. Tax reform will help underpin this but multinational companies like Apple already pay a lower effective tax rate than US only companies like O'Reilly.
    What isn't factored in is the "repatriation" of $$$ from overseas at a proposed tax rate of 5%! Wow. That alone drives Apple stock up another $10-15 per share.
    The GROWTH of the Services aspect of Apple is why the stock has exploded, its not about future iPhone sales, although selling 85 million X models in the quarter doesn't hurt.
    What's also not factored in is what will they BUY with their 250 Billion cash horde? Disney, Netflix? Who knows.
    And the one of the biggest factors, they just leapfrogged everybody else on AR (augmented reality).
    Plus, what else do they have in the pipeline over the next 3-5 yrs that can't be disclosed that we don't know about. They get the best talent in the world and have the most $$$.
    Anyhow, my "buy on the rumor and sell on the news" moment will likely come after the Christmas quarters earning report. It will be a BLOWOUT quarter again and if previous cycles play out on these major upgrade cycles, that will be the time to sell and buy back in later.
    When you factor in all of the market valuation methods it is deemed mildly overvalued right now.
    If interest rates blow through 2.75% on the 10 yr treasury on up to 3% next year and inflation keeps ticking up, including wage inflation, yes its real, then I'd expect a decent selloff.

    I like the way you think iceman .I dumped all the crap stocks i had about the time the iTunes craze hit then went all in on apple stock. It was the best move ever and my dumb ass stock broker has been trying to talk me out of it ever since he says i need diversity

    #536 11 months ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    Love Visa, owned it for quite a while now

    Same here, Iceman. Pays nice dividend too.

    I love your analysis of the market. You have done your homework. While I've got Apple, Google, and all the other 'big boys' in my portfolio, I have recently loaded up on Ten Cent Holdings (TCEHY). Man, that stock has skyrocketed since September. I just put another $15,000 in it. I think it will be the next Amazon in the Orient. I'm getting out of the everyday stocks like CPG, PM, JNJ, KO . . . they paid respectible dividends but the growth rate was too slow for me. I'm 70 and I am getting away for the long hold stocks. Have had great success with RXL, another rapid climber, and Skyworks. I bought about $500 worth of it several years ago, and that little bit is now worth over $16.000 now.

    I bought BABA when it was first offered, just on a lark. That baby has climbed too. I bought it as a gamble, just like I did TESLA. I'm in those 2 for the long haul hoping for a big payoff someday. And Adobe . . . of all things . . . has made me a shit pot full of money in the last 2 years.

    I've got a couple of REITs brewing. MAIN is doing great and paying nice dividends.

    I enjoy reading your comments along with all the rest on here just to see how much stock savvy I have . . .

    Mike in Kentucky

    #537 11 months ago

    Question on AT&T. was at $43 , seems like a few months ago, now at $32. Time warner deal will most likely go through and they pay decent dividends. Why is stock so low? Or should I consider it on sale and load up? I'm looking at 6 years down the road towards retirement.

    #538 11 months ago

    So when you get out of the market and into cash, how do you know when to get back in?

    For that matter, how do you know when to get out in the first place?

    When you sell a big gaining stock, do you immediately have another in mind to buy? How do you find the winners consistently?

    #539 11 months ago
    Quoted from investingdad:

    So when you get out of the market and into cash, how do you know when to get back in?
    For that matter, how do you know when to get out in the first place?
    When you sell a big gaining stock, do you immediately have another in mind to buy? How do you find the winners consistently?

    Timing the market doesn’t work, there have been countless studies that prove this yet still people think they can sell before a crash and think they can buy at the bottom.

    The top never never is obvious and the bottom is not either. We could go on another two plus years without a correction people were saying we are due for a correction for a long time certainly after the election, they have missed a lot of gains, earning zero in cash, when the market begins to fall there is no way to be certain if it’s a true correction or a temporary dip like January 2017 when it went down 8% in one month.

    https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/05/28/3-reasons-why-market-timing-doesnt-work.aspx

    One problem with being out of the market is that you’ll miss some real big days. You are also missing dividend income which accounts for something like 60% of the stock market gains.

    Anyone in cash is earning around less than inflation and missing out on dividends which are average 2% for S&P500 stocks.

    A9C815BE-2CF7-4CF2-A0D2-A342661F77D7 (resized).jpeg

    2FFD979F-C48E-4FBF-988C-5EA99F305645 (resized).png

    #540 11 months ago
    Quoted from investingdad:

    So when you get out of the market and into cash, how do you know when to get back in?
    For that matter, how do you know when to get out in the first place?
    When you sell a big gaining stock, do you immediately have another in mind to buy? How do you find the winners consistently?

    Pure luck.

    #541 11 months ago

    Exactly.

    Which is why I continue to preach low cost funds, buy and never sell, stay the course regardless of what the market is doing, etc.

    Complicated trades to score a few thousand or tens of thousands of dollars is not appealing to me and not sustainable as a long term strategy.

    Investing is simple and requires very little work. I never understood the desire to make it complicated.

    #542 11 months ago
    Quoted from investingdad:

    Exactly.
    Which is why I continue to preach low cost funds, buy and never sell, stay the course regardless of what the market is doing, etc.
    Complicated trades to score a few thousand or tens of thousands of dollars is not appealing to me and not sustainable as a long term strategy.
    Investing is simple and requires very little work. I never understood the desire to make it complicated.

    You can be successful trading. You need to have a strategy and stick to that strategy.

    For instance, you buy company X for $50. Your plan is to sell at $47 or $55. If it hits one of those targets, go through with your plan. You're capturing 10% upside and limiting your downside to 6%.

    For all of my singles, I've had plenty of outs. I'm fortunate to have several grand slams and no triple plays to offset them.

    #543 11 months ago
    Quoted from investingdad:

    Exactly.
    Which is why I continue to preach low cost funds, buy and never sell, stay the course regardless of what the market is doing, etc.
    Complicated trades to score a few thousand or tens of thousands of dollars is not appealing to me and not sustainable as a long term strategy.
    Investing is simple and requires very little work. I never understood the desire to make it complicated.

    This is correct.

    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    You can be successful trading. You need to have a strategy and stick to that strategy.
    For instance, you buy company X for $50. Your plan is to sell at $47 or $55. If it hits one of those targets, go through with your plan. You're capturing 10% upside and limiting your downside to 6%.
    For all of my singles, I've had plenty of outs. I'm fortunate to have several grand slams and no triple plays to offset them.

    This is correct also but the first option, low cost ETF buy and hold doesn’t require any effort. It basically is dummy proof.

    Both or either method can work but the stock picking method is more prone to bad luck or dumb picks. Someone does buy CMG when it was $750/share. Some people were buying Bear Stern the day before it went bankrupt.

    If you buy broad low cost ETFs you never need to sell you just keep on doing the same thing and it’s automatic that you will not do worse that the average.

    Remember when people buy or sell a stock or option it was either the right time to buy or the right time to sell so someone lost the trade. There is a winner and a loser on every transaction.

    With broad base low cost ETF you just buy whenever you have the money such as every month, and you will be buying some high some low but overall as the market goes up the shares you bought low will become very valuable (more shares bought).

    Plus dividend reinvestment is very important part of buy and hold investing.

    #544 11 months ago

    I'm considering selling all our holdings to get construction done on our home - we are in a hot market, in a super hot zip code, and need a bit more space to work with. Meeting with the builder today to see if the cost will be sustained by the potential in the end result. We'll see...

    #545 11 months ago
    Quoted from Rdoyle1978:

    I'm considering selling all our holdings to get construction done on our home - we are in a hot market, in a super hot zip code, and need a bit more space to work with. Meeting with the builder today to see if the cost will be sustained by the potential in the end result. We'll see...

    How much equity do you have in your home?

    You may want to look at a home equity line of credit.

    #546 11 months ago
    Quoted from Pintucky:

    Same here, Iceman. Pays nice dividend too.
    I love your analysis of the market. You have done your homework. While I've got Apple, Google, and all the other 'big boys' in my portfolio, I have recently loaded up on Ten Cent Holdings (TCEHY). Man, that stock has skyrocketed since September. I just put another $15,000 in it. I think it will be the next Amazon in the Orient. I'm getting out of the everyday stocks like CPG, PM, JNJ, KO . . . they paid respectible dividends but the growth rate was too slow for me. I'm 70 and I am getting away for the long hold stocks. Have had great success with RXL, another rapid climber, and Skyworks. I bought about $500 worth of it several years ago, and that little bit is now worth over $16.000 now.
    I bought BABA when it was first offered, just on a lark. That baby has climbed too. I bought it as a gamble, just like I did TESLA. I'm in those 2 for the long haul hoping for a big payoff someday. And Adobe . . . of all things . . . has made me a shit pot full of money in the last 2 years.
    I've got a couple of REITs brewing. MAIN is doing great and paying nice dividends.
    I enjoy reading your comments along with all the rest on here just to see how much stock savvy I have . . .
    Mike in Kentucky

    I also like TCEHY.

    #547 11 months ago
    Quoted from rai:

    Stock splits have nothing to do with the market cap. It’s funny some people still think that the cost of one share has anything to do with the value of the company. Like to say Google after a 2 split now at $900/share is any different than if no split and it was $1800/share.
    Buy backs are just spending cash or borrowing money to lower the number of shares, still same overall value before or after split or buyback.

    No stock buybacks and splits do not raise the market cap first splits are purely psychological many want to but 100 shares not 10 that is why MA and AAPl split 7 to 1 second with no buybacks your eps contracts as the share count grows with officers options growing share count

    #548 11 months ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    How much equity do you have in your home?
    You may want to look at a home equity line of credit.

    Yep that's a possibiiity - I'm having to weigh the fixed risk of the higher rate loan a HELOC will represent against the potential risk of loss from the inevitable correction whenever that happens. Real estate here is a pretty good risk so we'll see how I do this, but it will most likely happen. Have to see how much it will cost first - if it's too high it won't be worth it if I can't see the house and get the money back

    #549 11 months ago

    For the last 6 months I've counted my pinball machines in my asset category along with savings/precious metals/savings/stocks/etc.

    Does anyone else do this?

    #550 11 months ago
    Quoted from Rdoyle1978:

    I'm considering selling all our holdings to get construction done on our home - we are in a hot market, in a super hot zip code, and need a bit more space to work with. Meeting with the builder today to see if the cost will be sustained by the potential in the end result. We'll see...

    So after you pay taxes on gains, do you expect the return on the home improvements to exceed what your investments will return? If not, I'd think a HELOC would be better...or save up what you need in cash if the work isn't critical, that's the most prudent option.

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