yah I was looking at that this morning.

In this bizarro world market it could end up at $400.

"valuation" is realistically $40 so ten times that seems about right these days.

I am pretty much done on tech buying but have a shopping list when it dips again. Two weeks ago I did some pull back on tech before it dipped and haven’t put all the money back in yet. I subscribed to “value and momentum breakouts” on seeking alpha and his charting helped point out that a breakdown was coming. Yes I like FSLY long term and fortunately sold 1/3 of at $94 and brought back at $72.50 over last 2 weeks. Even sold my AAPL I had for 10 years?! at $130 and $118 and haven’t bought back in yet. 10 years and I sold it. That was weird to me. Lightened on some others also. I am with you love tech long term so pick your favorites buy dips now and hold for years for gains. I like and own Pins TTD FSLY NVDA LVGO SQ MELI and SE long term and they are some of my favs for sure.

And yes I like Reits and after looking around they are my favorite come-backers over Airlines, cruise, banks and small Caps. I have bought and sold Reits, like SPG, 3 times during June and July and made about 7 or 8% each time on them over a two to three week holding periods. Last month when I bought them back lower I decided to keep Reits long term and not sell and my STOR and SPG are each up over 15% so far. STOR raised there dividend last month during Covid?!. Reits are small 3% of my portfolio but will buy dips. SPG seems like a momentum play now and will buy more during pullbacks. Never thought I would be excited about dividends being in my 40’s but times ah e changed. Don’t want to own them forever, but hold them for a while, get growth and dividends and sell them to income investors for a profit in 2021 or 2022 is the plan.

How high are Reits up there on your comeback opportunities Ice?

And SNOW will be pure entertainment for me from the sidelines. That will be fun to watch.

Hey @iceman44,

I just want to say thanks for all your input in this thread. I've been following it for a year now and finally decided to dip my toe in the proverbial trading pool. (should have jumped in in March, lol)

I'm into MAC,TISI,APHA,CCL and OXY for strong 2021 rebounds.

Also, if I'm the one who ruined that email newsletter you we're sending out....I want to apologize. When I sent you a PM I was under the impression you we're fine with emailing anyone who wanted on the list. I wasn't aware you we're only sending it to people you knew.

I hope I didn't ruin it for others. Sorry.

SNOW is insane. I like to ride the lightning as much as any stock person, know this space well, and I refuse to touch this stock. This is pure and simple gambling. Somebody is going to make a ton of money and somebody is going to get smacked hard.

I mean, I can't be sure, but I doubt it was you. I think tons of people requested to be on the list.

Its been gambling for a while now.. there is no rational explanation for the market last few months (well other then the fed).

Earlier in the thread people were talking up WKSH.. this is a company that had revenue of 92K and lost 132 million in one quarter which is pathetic.

People are buying it like its the greatest company on the planet. lol.

Its just looney some of this stuff.

You are right, but Im watching it like a hawk. Why its climbing, who knows. But I bought at $5.92 and its currently @ 27.66. Ill take the luck! Hell, I was happy when I doubled my money and still would be if it fell to $12 right now!

Yeah, but in this case I am talking specifically about SNOW. If you look at my commentary from the prior page this is just insane. A 500M/year company that is still losing money is not worth this much.

Oh yah I know but I could say the same about tons of stocks.

The inmates run the asylum at this point... great time to make money if you are that brave.

I dont blame anyone for going after stuff and trying to make a buck but its straight up looney allot of it.

Not at all and happy to help.

Here is the breakdown on SPG and the guy's research i pay for all things REIT's, he's phenomenal

Pathway back to June 8th reopening euphoria of $95 looks good?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4374455-simon-says-bring-on-amazon

SNOW will drop big time once the chasers get disappointed and lose patience . Any day now.

bought some GRVY @ 84.95 on 9/04
up over 50% to date - plenty of more room to move up

Very interesting. Actually makes $$ . 2.5 times Sales?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4353417-gravitys-new-games-be-catalyst-for-stock-price

possibly one of the more undervalued gaming stocks around

A company that actually makes money is doing well in the stock market?

How refreshing....

I though these days you had to bleed cash or make up crazy future products to double up.

I’m still learning this stuff but how does IEP look? From my rudimentary research they seem like a good company that’s still bouncing back.

I added a little bit to my SE position, got into that one later than most around here. I also opened a small position in BABA. I’m pretty interested in WORK, I think it has a lot of potential long term. At this point I’m interested in solid long term prospects and am paying close attention to this thread.

I never understood how IPO pricing work... Wasn't it supposed to be priced at $100 but the market opened at $245. So no one was really able to buy them at $100? Seems only good for investor pre-IPO in that case...?

It started at $75-85 then up from there. The demand for the outstanding shares have to balance and the price is set accordingly. Huge hype with this company and its founder.

Salesforce, Buffett and Elon Musk esque CEO drove this through the roof.

In the short run it's gonna end up being a disaster i think for those that pumped it up over $300 and are still holding the bag.

Maybe by 2023 they can justify this valuation IF they keep growing at 100% plus per year? lol

When the underwriters price the shares at what they did originally that is what they thought the shares were worth and what they could get for them.

I think the previous round was priced, pre ipo, in the $30's or less?

Compared to Mongo MDB, a database company we started buying at $37 ish post lock up almost 2 yrs ago and now plus $200, SNOW shot up in one day.....

"MongoDB is a transactional DB built for applications to run on. Snowflake is an analytical database which is more of a data warehouse for large data storage for the purpose of analyzing data not for powering apps."

I think the Price to Sales on SNOW is 120 x! Lol

Seriously wtf, this is the kind of speculation that scares me.

Like Motley said, I'd think about it for the long term up to $140 per share and that's rich.

I remember trying to get in as fast as I could on the BABA ipo and thinking how crazy it was shooting up. And that wasn’t even remotely close to what this thing just did.

Pure insanity.

Hey @iceman44, today was insane and far outstripped my imagination. I am happy for friends at SNOW but this is moronic. I talked with friends today that I have at competitors and we are all shaking our heads. More power to them but this is a sucker bet at this valuation.

Quick clarification for you on Mongo. It is an analytical database, but a different type compared to Snowflake. It is noSQL in nature, so can store structured, unstructured, and semi-structured data. You see it heavy in text and document-based analytics, amongst others, as well as underpinning web apps. If you ever want a primer and background on the analytics and database space let me know and we can discuss it over zoom drinking bourbon.

What's your thinking on Mongo now? Doesn't it have it's own noSQL language? I know they have college courses now in that DB.

Yeah DB, for sure sometime on the Zoom discussion, beers for me!

I can't figure out how AYX fits into this whole mix either.

Mongo has its own variant of SQL. I can ask my tech guys but I am assuming it is probably 90 recent plus SQL compliant.

Mongo is doing some good things. Since they are a partner, I do not invest in them but their stock has had a great run. They have good leadership and a good sector carved out for them.

Alteryx is an analytics company. They have a suite of tools that allows you to develop and run machine learning algorithms on big data. This would run on a snowflake or other data warehouse or lake. Good technology, but a crowded market. You have industry standards like SAS and SPSS on the ultra high end; BI tools like Tableau adding analytics, and of course the biggest competitors: open source. R and Python are what the cool kids are using. This crowdedness made me take a divergent path.

Crazy confusing stuff going on! Didn't Salesforce just buy Tableau? It seems like the cool kids are finicky and change what they like all too often.

I've got clients that were part of Sendgrid, the sister company that merged into Twilio. So i knew what was coming and couldn't take advantage of it until post merger.

I've got a few that work for Crowdstrike down here. Done good in that one too but OKTA was my initial cyber security play. While i don't understand any of it, it's based on the research of others that do.

At some point sooner than later the other 95% of the market that has been in the tank is going to outperform these high flying growth stocks. Gotta be real picky right now.

Good stuff DB!

Salesforce did indeed buy Tableau. I think that was around 3B or so from memory. The challenge that you have with this particular market sector is exactly what you said: things change and evolve too quickly. Timing is everything. If you are too early in a company people don't understand what you are trying to sell them and you burn out without making anything. Too late, and you are yesterday's news. For my employment, I pick companies that are a little early for my market sector and go build the business. You have to put in the hardwork, but then you get to reap it. Then, you have to go find the next one.

Sales guy motto for success is the 3T's: Timing, Territory, and Technology. You can be the best sales guy in the world but if these 3 conditions are not right you will fail, and hard. Conversely, you can have a room temperature IQ but have the 3T's going for you and make a killing.

Just tell me when to sell everything before the election.

+1 here!

FYI

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3615021-jefferies-raises-apple-target-on-5g-enthusiasm

In my re buy zone now.

I just bought a new 12.9" IPad that should arrive today, and will look to get a new phone once the 12 comes out. It has been a while since I bought the Iphone and Ipad I am presently using. Speed was becoming a problem because of the lack of RAM size.

If the IPhone12 has 5G they should sell very well.

Huh... I was thinking more like dipping under $100 to rebuy.

Appl is a tough one since every two weeks they are pimping something else.

A few months ago no one cared about the 5G cycle and that "doesnt matter anymore" it was all about services, app store... now since its the 5G cycle thats the thing again.

so it went from hardware doesnt matter to now all about the hardware. lol

My thoughts to.
For fun I put in a limit on Appl at 99 this morning. Dont think its going there today so far. I also put one in on sumo at 20, a guy can try, im cheap.

I think if you buy it at $110 you need to be prepared to continue buying in increments if the price goes down further.

Apple 5G will push the stock back up no doubt.

Here’s the question - how much farther down can amazon go? It’s almost sub 2?

WKHS and Diamond still bringing it

I’m holding Tesla for now - battery day for the win and I’m long on it anyway

REITS are big on my comeback list. They have performed every time in history and will bounce back again

As for Apple, it’s a long term cash cow money machine

It’s def NOT about the hardware, but the bigger the installed user base gets the bigger the services pie grows and future subscription revenue streams added to that monster machine

Health care, AI, streaming etc etc etc

All things being equal you are getting a 6% total return as well with the dividend payout AND the stock buyback program, depending on the timing of buybacks

If you think it will drop further, then wait it out. I hope it does

I’ve made a fortune on buying these dips so bring it on!

I bought more TTD and SPG today as well

https://twitter.com/lessin/status/1306404733700116481?s=20

Regarding Apple, they are not a "hardware" or "software" company, they are now a subscription company based upon their ecosystem. Besides the obvious software services that they are offering, they are counting on people in the ecosystem to upgrade hardware at certain intervals. Phones, for example, every 2 years or so. That is why when you try to buy a phone they want you to do the no interest 24 month payment plan. It not only makes the hardware costs more manageable, but it creates a buying event every two years for you to upgrade. This ARR (annually recovering revenue) is one of their big metrics, and is the reason that wallstreet treats them similar to a software subscription company, because they really are.

Alomst got there today

Next leg of my buy in activated today. Always did love rollercoasters....

Your knowledge of the technology companies is impressive DBLM! I know you trade but care to share some of your favorite long term holds? Thanks for sharing your info and updates.

You are too kind. I am in the tech space so it is an area I know.

As for long term, my biggest holdings are ones that you would expect: aapl, msft, a amzn, v, mcd, ba, sbux, and the like. I have made some bets on the recovery in regn and abt. I have some financials, but those are trading water right now. Some of my short to mid terms plays include rkt, lulu, cnty, zyne.

With that being said, I am always looking to see which way the winds are blowing. I tend to do a fair amount of trading and have some good calls in the past 6 months. However, I have no compunctions about cutting and running. Lots of choppy water ahead so I encourage everybody to pain attention to the markets and their positions. The old paradigms are dead.

Right on. Folks who trade short term need to learn to have long term keepers that will turn into double and triple baggers down the road. Short term gains are great, but for me longer term buys are really the best trades you can make “longer term multi bagger”. If you have a good horse don’t sell it, let it run.

I agree on watching your positions. I fortunately lightened up a couple of weeks ago and in 1/3 cash now and no hurry to buy anything. Although things are getting better looking. Thanks again

And also you have been working hard, treat yourself to a Hook CDMD

I hear you.. you are on the money on appl.

I bought it in 2018 at $150 pre split so Im not complaining, just felt like it was time to take the money and run recently.

I want back in but I am more concerned about Biden then the stock.

Should he gain traction or get elected no less the incoming bidenapocalypse is more of a concern.... just capital gains alone will have people cashing out.

I think I'll add some AAPL today below 110

Bailing on TESLA today. In at 342 last week so winning no matter what... Trying to guess what the high for the day will be. Figure it will likely go up Monday and part of the day Tuesday, then crash again.

Crazy what's happening with Amazon and apple. Amazon especially seems like it's been going down for the past month

Do we think this dip will continue next week? Who has a magic 8 ball?

Why is it crazy?

Appl went from $370 a share in March to over $500....

Its not crazy when it blows up and gets ahead of itself only when it goes down?

that's not a big jump compared to some of these other stocks not making nearly that much and still going up 500%. Prob a good time to buy more apple.

I'm long on them anyway