No, that is a macro view of the world, that misses the actual activities within Stern itself and specifically the pinball industry. Stern had been squeezing the BOM for some time. They flirted with the 'A lister' designers by contracting SR and PL but they kept the inhouse team on the cheaper side. Gary was focusing on building cheap games to meet his intended operator price point.. and as volumes kept sliding, he kept building cheaper and cheaper games trying to make the numbers work (and we got crap like NBA, 24, IJ, etc). Then, with the increased pressure of the recession, they got ultimate cutback and lay off more than half the design staff in 2008. Gary was cutting to the bone trying to keep production going and things were iffy. Then in 2009, Dave Peterson comes into the picture as an investor and leader in the business and Stern starts trying new concepts to diversify.. build more than one type of pinball machine, sold through different channels, etc. But the 'build them with these mandatory features, and build them cheap' was still Gary's mantra, and we get lightweight games like IM.
Pinballnew's 2009 year in review highlights Gary's comments about the design trend at the time - http://www.pinballnews.com/comment/2009.html
People were clamoring for richer feature games.. but Gary won't hear it, arguing his model is what is necessary to make it all work. To his credit, he did keep the ship afloat, but the trajectory was not good and home buyers in particular were calling for change. At the end of 2010, JackG believes he knows the potential market is strong enough to make that cadillac game that Gary Stern refuses to make.. and shuts down his relationship with Stern to create JJP. They introduce the WOZ concept promising to build the best game every made, promising innovation, and basically everything that Stern refuses to do.
JJP also immediately starts hiring all the top talent Stern threw to the curb. JJP promised to build a cadillac and was hiring industry vets and collector favorites to do it. JJP hired JoeB, Keefer, Nordman, Greg Freres and other well known players. JJP offers the WOZ pre-order with the promise of the Emerald City LE edition and price discounts in exchange for deposits and things go gangbusters. The market responded to JJPs moves positively... while meanwhile Stern is sitting there trying to build the Gary formula game as cheaply as possible with a skeleton crew.. heavily relying on John Borg, who up to that time had been more of a C/B lister... rather than the celebrity designers.. and relying on contracting out most disciplines he can (like art, sound, etc).
Yes, this timing also aligns with the rebound in the overall economy, but it was the movement within the pinball world that finally got Stern to pivot. Left facing new competition that is on a hiring spree, promising the world and everyone thinking this is the second coming and throwing their money at it.. Stern pivots. Gary capitulates and mends fences with SteveRitchie in March 2011 and promising he will be able to build the kinds of games they think are needed, not just Gary's vision of the world (aka NBA). They hire the king, and then go onto to rebuild the inhouse talent pool by bringing in Gomez to lead engineering, and try to lock up more talent, hire in more staff.. and start approaching game marketing entirely different. The first real splash and launch of this new company strategy was evident with Transformers. Multiple pimped editions, multimedia marketing, etc. Stern starts marketing directly to customers and not just Operators first (yet Gary is still adamant about which market matters first.. Ops)
This is also the time when the market starts being flooded with new types of customers.. and the rise of the direct home buyer starts taking off like crazy. The market is flooded with new buyers looking to buy NIB.
The recession has a lot to do with the buying demand returning... but it was the direct challenge to Stern and the arms race of what JJP was promising and building in his staff and potential that posed the threat to Stern. When the market reacted so positively to the WOZ preorder and early teasing, that's when the new blood at Stern saw the opportunity and rushed to address this "new" (or to Stern.. forgotten) market segment with NEW price points and features.
JJP made the moves Gary refused to do... proved the market viability... set a new standard.. and Stern had to react.
Remember.. Gary preached if another Pinball company was started... only one would survive or both would fail. He was wrong in that, and wrong in what the market actually wanted and would tolerate.
Obviously there are other outside activities in this 2009+ era that opened up the new demand and customer base.. but Stern's change in product direction and staffing was a direct reaction to industry shifts started by JJP... not Gary reading the tea leaves about the economy recovering.