Most older collectors already voted by choices not dollars, and we did not need a new poll.
We took our toys out of the sandbox and went home long before the end of 2016.

Plenty of other games out in the market.

Manufacturers can do whatever they wish with new games. I do hope they have a better long term game plan than WMS did in 1998. History has a tendency to repeat itself. Just biding time for eventual closeouts from a variety of sources.

This information is not pessimistic just "illuminating".

The real pinball history:

Owners/collectors kept pinball alive not Stern as some type of "Jesus Savior".
Collectors provided technical experience in restoration and reproduction of parts, many times over before Stern did anything.
Hell, they relied heavily on expert feedback to troubleshoot their own early designs out of the gate in 2001 well into 2006.
They do not seem to say much on this subject lately.
Stern, "We are the champions!!!"?
Horse apples.

I am not sure why new owners continually try to perpetuate Stern's made up concepts, propaganda, and advertising, that they proposed during their 30th Anniversary by drinking their "cool aid".
It is like people that are saying, "there is no reason to have a coin door on pinball machine".
They are just helping the process along at a nice trot.
This is the reality.

There were no "days of grandeur" on Stern's behalf before 2007.
Behind closed doors every single remaining designer, programmer, coder, or engineer will provide justification, if it did not cost them their job. Times were rough, and the future was highly uncertain.
Most of the non-management people working in every single factory were not around of anything of the past.

Stern recycled 3 specific titles (TSPP, LOTR, and SM) under multiple production runs to provide survival of their company.
They changed their business practices because they were forced in order to recognize that the collector community was even the higher importance.
Stern was just grateful for our help (and buying many of their extremely lukewarm titles), until the tide changed.
They have rode on the coat tails of the latest revival starting in 2010, and have not looked back.

It is hard for me to give Stern respect based on these current circumstances.

They are just thumbing their noses at the people that supported them, in the firm belief, that if they cater to the same boutique buyers as high end cars, in tiny volumes, they will survive.
That is the mindset of JJP and DP as well.
Spooky and Heighway are somewhere in the middle, but everybody keeps throwing out promises they cannot keep, and we are supposed to reward all of them for lying or trying promote false hype?
This does not consider the fiasco with American Pinball, which was even worse at this point, but at least they decided to keep their mouths shut until they figure out how to proceed, if ever.

I don't see BM66, MG, Houdini, or Alien shipping in less than two weeks, AS PROMISED.
At least JJP was honest in stating the game was not ready for sale, but he also turned around and said he would not take any more pre orders until the game was ready to be shipped.
How long did that last, 1 month before Expo?

I wish them all extremely good luck with that economic concept, but it is flawed stability in the long term, unless pinball machines turn into a "chicken in every pot" with growth of the hobby.
Unfortunately, the quality to cost is far from equal at this point, and move further away with every "release".
Stern is by far the worst of the lot in terms of misdirection at the present time.
They had to clean up their QA, QI, and QM acts due to the mistakes made alone in the past 6 months due to the mess they made on the neighbors backyard with GB.

Stern Surfing (resized).jpg

It does not have a REAL backglass either based on the feature listing.
(Subject to further Stern change or reduction of features at anytime)

Actual backglasses make games valuable, for their art factor alone.
More important than equivalent PDI glass.
I bet most people did not even catch this change.

- SLE gets all 3 translites (SLE)
- SLE unique translite and cabinet art by Christopher Franchi (SLE)
- LE unique translite and cabinet art by Christopher Franchi (LE)
- Premium unique translite and cabinet art by Christopher Franchi (Prem)

Basically, owners get three pieces of plastic instead of a proper mirrored and detailed backglass.
Just another reason not to be impressed, based on cost reductions.
Remember this game was supposed to be their "30th Anniversary Special" game but it ships with no real backglass?
New owners now do not even realize the true differences.
It like watery Prego, it's in there, but it does not always taste good.

Used and lightly scratched owners can always have my sheets for free in courtesy.
That is what I do for new collectors who with with to save money in restorations.
I have given away at least 4-5 sheets this year alone.
We all do it, or at least we used to overall.
I am sure you have.
Shipping is what always seems to make it worth it to take a ball peen hammer and have a fireworks display.

Some people do not realize most local glass shops will provide custom specification, round edged, non logo, tempered safety glass at proper thickness for cheaper in "one offs" that most pinball suppliers, and you can pick it up the next day.
My glass shop here will provided sheets for less than $40/sheet, and even further reduced if you buy in bulk.
Granted it may not be PDI or Invisiglass featured, but new glass increases the quality of used games ten fold in clarity.

It is like any other "fallout" in the industry between engineering, design, and coders team members.
They generally come back together, especially when their are only a handful of manufacturers.
Same thing happened with BLY/WMS in the 90s.
They need a job, particularly for exclusive pinball designers.
That is part of the reason Steve Ritchie returned to the industry.
The recent "Same Player Shoots Again" DVD, you can catch hints of this in his interview.
He had some tough times in the early 2000s.

I seriously already researched this as an opportunity.

I kept liking what I have been seeing in the market in general over the past couple of years from the significance.

Why spend money on new games, when you can have other new owners with the "fever" do all the work for you and reinvest accordingly?
You might be able to buy a new machine on the profit every 6-12 months.
It would an incredible amount of reverse humor to know that indifferent buyers were paying for my interests.

Currently, Stern is rolled into other investors and not directly public, so their was no way to isolate, manage, and evaluate changes over time of their actual profit margins based on their changes in game MSRPs.
If they do go fully public, throwing the cost of 2-3 new pinball machines for shares would be an interesting pastime.
Maybe even more fun than other stocks, because it would combine the hobby with regular market checks.

It is just an indication of how much hobbyists within the market have changed.
Three plastic translites do not equal one quality back glass.
This is another Stern cost savings measure that was overlooked by hundreds both here on PinSide and around the world.
It slipped by many Stern fanboys as well.

In the late 90s (1995-1999), hobbyists/operators refused to pay increased NIB prices similar to the significant price jumps that started with Stern around 2012, even though construction quality of games was tenfold of today.
This includes games from Data East, Sega, and even AGC from the early 1990s.
Granted some of the early games (1992-1995) had overstocks but not 1000s of games.
Everyone kept waiting for closeouts for purchases.

Many games STILL had proper backglasses such as NGG and CP.
Both these game title examples also have many more features than Stern's latest game.
The backglasses were sharp, ink screening solid, and quality superb.

The jumps of game prices to offset shrinking production runs was one of several reasons that contributed to the fall of WMS.
Does this sound currently familiar?
This is the same occurrence now with Stern's direct refocus to the home market, partial disregard of operators, and hopeful expectations in the consumer market.
It does work for a while, but the "regulations" people sometimes refer does not exactly work out as hoped.
Manufacturers just close when times are tough, not readapt to changes.
It generally does not make financial sense.
Stern almost "bought the farm" when they tried to restart in 2001 with potential closures considered as early as 2003.
TSPP saved them the first time as sales were excellent.

New buyers need to be educated on what they are receiving for their money, or Stern with planned construction of BM66 will continue to reduce features with measured effectiveness. This is also why Stern's "The Pin v2.0" has been moderately successful this holiday season. People have no real idea what they are buying, they just "want it".

"Knowledge and astute observation provides the power to ensure good purchases."

I am just here to inform people interested in the hobby to pay attention.
There are a handful of trolls here that will not take the time to understand what I am trying to explain, and I am not being negative, just direct.
You can still find superb deals on used games, just stop looking at the "buzz feed" titles.
Pinball has so much more to offer.
Stern cannot justify the increasing costs of their games with anythings logical like economic changes, wage salaries, or the fact that games are "hand made".
Stern only employs approximately 200 people with average wages less than $25/hour.
Pinball games have always been hand made, because their is no way to properly construct a industrial robot to construct assemblies, do soldering, or validate manual game testing.
I heard this last sentence from Jodi during the John's Arcade Stern tour video, like it was some type of revelation.

If they sold the same game new in 2016, they would price the game the same as BM66SLE based on the features or Stern would attempt to try. STLE has one of the best light shows designed in the past five years, especially with the cabinet phasers. BM66 SLE "whoopee light" was not an improvement or innovative.

It is roughly $4500 based on materials and workmanship.
However, this considers that a game has at least a production run of 1000 machines, anything less significantly hinders the actual ability for a manufacturer to produce profit.
This also considers existing arrangements and contracts with parts suppliers, as this company is not "starting from scratch".
This means Stern is grossing at least 35-40% gross profit margin, not considering overheads, initial development cost (including specialization design for parts and artwork), or oddity problems with licensing.
If you conservatively take this into account you must decrease actual profit margin decreases to around 20% which equates to roughly $1600 per machine.
If a person wants to do the research and understand the industry, they can find the data.
The true benefit of maximizing profit margins with any title is the ability to produce and sell the maximum number of units under the provisions of the license, which is the same for any marketed product.
This is what makes reruns so lucrative.

I will further explain industrial profit margins.
Education is helpful in making good decisions, so I am trying assist people here that may not understand what is going on.
I am basing values on a current considering of a $8000 MSRP for a Premium example, which is a little higher than most NIB previous titles, but is useful in percentage calculations for an even number instead of "$7299" or something similar. This does not consider any actual "deals" or distributor discounts.

The percentage is based off the baseline MSRP calculation and large ticket items, not TV sets or iPhones. I am not talking about the percentage of profit over production cost, but a cut percentage of a listed MSRP. There is a huge difference. It makes it easier for consumers to understand because that is what they are used to seeing "in the wild". People in market advertising think in reverse basing profits purely based on raw construction construction costs which is why people may think 20% is small. However, this does not include a comprehensive perspective.

If I speak in only percentage over construction, it may confuse people.
This standard in the latter is based on construction costs only, and is not the way operation managers think in terms of developing streamlined production.
I am not trying to provide an entire industrial production class in a simple post.

20% is not the profit margin for reruns of a product. This was only the estimated initial profit margin as the product rolls off the line. In this you have to consider production efficiency and effectiveness. On thing that should be noted is pinball remains niched, a luxury, and specialized. This prohibits higher profit margins than those found in other industries. There are only a handful that are comparable, some that charge enormous sums of money for products.

The profit margin for reruns or continued production of a product will increase over time until it reaches a cap based on reductions of mass ordering materials, labor, and streamlined construction. That is the "lucrative" factor with more expensive high end consumer products (or any marketed product). However, unlike other pinball products of the past, Stern's "modular" construction program in the assembly line has allowed production overhead costs to be reduced. If a manufacturer did not calculate this profit percentage prior to the start of production, they never make the game in the first place. It makes no sense to have a profit margin lower than 20% because with consumer products of this nature, the manufacturer assumes a huge risk in development costs.

In the long term, there is no way to directly calculate an increasing direct profit margin over time of a MSRP based on experience of workers without being on the factory floor. Essentially this is a time efficiency based calculation based on part of the management, but is is very important in determining all sorts of factors beyond just profit margins, but also the success of the manufacturer. Additional considerations are parts reduction costs based on additional mass ordering, and others. Rarely however does this percentage exceed 35-40%, which is extremely high for expensive ticket items.
iPhones are not pinball machines. There is too much hands on assembly to create them, which is a very important differentiation from many modern electronics. Also, there are simply too many variables, especially if market sales become saturated and sales drop as a result. You also have to consider introduced competing products, which causes changes in price simultaneously and will effect the percentage, if nothing is done to offset.
This means you are constantly evaluating necessary changes.
Stern is doing this very well, and have a dedicated small team to evaluating the market.
WMS from the old days went a different direction, they simply diversified their investments in order to offset any losses and stuck to their guns of the old pinball "one run and done" productions except for a few rare exceptions.

The best example of late based on Stern would be MET, as they renewed their license for the machine for continued production now preparing to enter its 4th year.
Rarely do you see any product produced consecutively without significant changes to "feed the need" of the consumer for improvements.
Quite a substantial achievement for a small company such as Stern.

People can point fingers at everybody else for increasing prices, but the reality is simply look in the mirror.
It is not just the uninformed new buyers that are stumbling over themselves for new titles.
There are in some cases very affluent older collectors that don't care what the price is overall, they just accept it as a choice.
I have several pinball collector friends where money is never an object of conjecture.
I certainly have my choices, hence I have my own pinball goals.
"Just because you have the means to buy the games new, does not mean you should."
You can have a pretty nice collection of machines, if you stay away from hype.

If you wondering why some companies succeed and some fail based on marketed products that initially sell well, look to these areas for answers. Eventually you have to become an expert at determining these factors when times or the economy is lean. Stern learned important experience in the mid 2000s, and recently reformatted their factory regarding QI/QM.
If they had not made changes, they would not be producing games now, and we would not be talking about Stern anyway.

One company in the pinball world does not understand this information very well at all, and will most likely be gone before the end of 2017.
They also have not been able to grow fast enough to meet the demands of consumers, nor provide the "released" product in a timely manner regardless of promises.
That is the industry, as has occurred many times in the past regarding pinball.
You have to "strike when the iron is hot" if you want to capitalize on any buzz generated, not 1-2 years later, if at all.
PPS for example made a smart move by not "releasing" the preproduction announcement of AFMr, as it was not the right time to do so in the changing market conditions.
When the time is right, they will do so.
Until you see a major breakout of pinball into mainstream America and the world (the "chicken in every pot" analogy), prices will always be in flux and not stabilized.
This is hard for me to happening in overseas markets right now for pinball, as the NIB prices are just too damn high for either the average collector or operators to purchase.
Hence, there is never been any significant pinball appraisers that have ever existed in this market.
As a result, manufacturers will continue to charge whatever they want, regardless of actual game value.

My primary background is engineering, operations management, and manufacturing process efficiency evaluation all of which is used to increase the effectiveness of production. This is the baseline for some of the discussion, and the rest is based my internal interests of the pinball market/industry, evaluation consideration for pinball collection/ownership, advisory status, and experience.

The one primary benefit that would help the market in the LONG term is everybody owns a pinball machine in their home.
I think every enthusiast would smile about that aspect.

You are correct, my error.
Edited.

Initial production of MET was initiated in APR 2013.
As of APR 2017, MET will started into its commemoration of its 4th year.
This was relevant as the license was set to expire in early summer.

What may be interesting is this particular title may eclipse TSPP, LOTR, or SM in production numbers.
However, it has a long way to go to currently overtake LOTR.
Surprising to see that the market is not saturated and backorders remain.

The game variants alone on this title are confusing to some people and very hard to keep track of production numbers.
MET Pro, MET Pro LED, MET Premium, MET Premium Road Case, MET Premium Monster, MET Premium Dirty Donny, and Limited Edition.
That is seven different versions, and the later versions of the same variations were all the updated backbox design and speaker panel.
If you add those to the list, you have at least one more variation, maybe two.

Certainly, the record for Stern in that area for the past 15 years.

Construction labor kicks production costs in the pants on pinball machines, always.
People underestimate these costs all the time in this industry.
An average time of construction of a machine from a playfield blank is 72 hours (3 days).
Offset labor costs alone is well over $1500-2000 (dependent on title complexity and experience on staff), not counting any materials, pre assemblies of any parts which is separately calculated, testing and quality control, or tagged license fees (if applicable).
Additionally, this still does not consider any cost overheads, rejected parts, or market advertising either.
People generally take the easiest path when calculating costs but overlook areas that impact the costs beyond things such as materials.
There are many similarities between pinball production and other areas of industrial manufacturing, but are done at a smaller scale.
The only reason that people compare modern electronics to pinball machines, is that what consumers have a certain comfortability in trying to rationalize and describe, but it simply not the case here, as the production standards are completely different.

Stern has tried to move pinball into the "modern world" with electronics, but there is only so far you can take it since it is still a physical game. There still are also "accepted standards" of what a pinball is supposed to look like, even though some parts have very little practical value.
That is why pinball remains everlasting and eternal, why EM pinball machines are still fun after over 50 years, and why it cannot be replaced with other forms of entertainment.

That is only true for benefit of collectors buying machines, not manufacturers.
Pinball remains a luxury, unless something significant changes from its status as a commodity good in my lifetime.
Pinball survives during the rough times based on the dedication of those people who decide to continue with the hobby once the glamour fades.
Some people are just so upset with Stern and their marketing, Stern may have have an extreme problem when the economy shifts.
They simply will no longer buy their games to support them, unlike what was done in the mid 2000s.
Not even a reduced closeout prices.
There are only so many "Avatar" games that collectors are willing to absorb for the glory of pinball.
Especially with other choices.
I am not trying to start a rebellion, but their current decisions are worse than what WMS did in the mid 90s.
They had much less competition than today, based entirely on changes in the market, not necessarily the manufacturers themselves.

However, this is still a good time to purchase machines for those titles, that people consider "less desirable", but not any less fun.
They are simply less interesting, because people have never had the opportunity to play the games.
Something you and I know clearly.
I keep telling people to stay away from "buzz feed" titles, and you can find some incredible examples of collectible machines in exemplary condition.
I have two machines "on the hook" to finish my Ted Zale collection less than 2 hours from my home.
Information simply passed from one collector to another for assistance.
Both will cost less TOGETHER than half of a NIB Stern game, but look and play just as nice and that says a lot for EM games that are over 40 years old!

"It's hard explain to others that people sold off their entire collections and moved on, when the previous owners are not around to talk about it."

- TBK

It has happened in the past, and still continues, otherwise dealers do not have games to sell.
It is incredible moving profitable market target that all dealers compete against.
They rely on mass market advertising to bring in owners to sell their games.
Sometimes trade games for parts, and vice versa, or even overstock NIB games.
I also have seen some insane trades for a new game where a dealer easily makes $2-3K on a flip the owner does not understand.
"Just a game."

I don't know if I have ever seen an "exit stage right" sale period however.
It is fairly constant, until the economy crashes, then a spike occurs so people can pay their bills.
Pinball machines are some of the first things to go out the door.
That is when serious collectors dive bomb into the market, just like the dealers.

All successful long term dealers manage both NIB games as distributors, and retain used game stock as supplementary income.
They buy up every mass quality collection they can afford, on a single offered price.
It is very effective.
In fact, they try to hoard as many games as they have space for overall in order secure their company during lean times, offer additional variety when new machines are not available, and still have something simply to sell other than Stern "WWE"s.
Most of the original reimports from 2001-2005 are long gone from overseas in bulk.
They ended up in the United States predominantly, with some in Australia and New Zealand.
Europe did not seem to really care at the time.
I helped move several hundred machines back to the US from 2002-2004 to several dealers, but I was not the only one.

However, if the market drives the sales, the dealers can artificially exclude availability of games, thereby retaining existing price inflations, and distribute their existing inventory that others may not believe exist, however and whenever they want.
This is called the "trickle effect" with artificial scarcity, and it seriously works for some titles.
Right now, dealers are just trying to keep up with demand and sell as many games as possible in the shortest time they can.
Smart ones know nothing lasts forever.
The dealers that don't survive simply are too small to continue business, or it was a sideshow for fun and a few extra dollars when there are "happy times".

Anybody remember this export photo to Australia?

mmrow (resized).jpg

Bingo Was His Name-O.

Once people stop worrying about epeens, they move into a complete new level of collecting and restoring.
I know I am speaking from a different perspective than some in the hobby, whether new or old.

Construction quality of EMs is extremely solid, and many of the games made in the last 15 years are long gone, yet games that are over 40 years old remain functional, intact, and have availability of replacement parts.
Incredible testament to their durability, and you are speaking from a person who enjoys modern games as well with experience with games made from about 1966-2015.
I personally don't have a lot of favorite wood rails previous to 1961 (thereabouts), only a couple.

I am not knocking any current "fun factor" or depth of ruleset of modern games, but you have to consider current generation, nodal, replacement, surface mounted printed circuit boards in only 5 years.

What will happen?
Where will we be?
Is Stern really concerned?

Stern only recently decided to make a another small batch of WhiteStar MPU system replacement boards and they sold out nearly immediately, and were prohibitively expensive at over $500 a board. There are some in some of the pinball suppliers, but I don't see this boards getting "cheaper with technology" by any means, just more obsolete and expensive. That is rough for those down the road.

There are probably more Joust (Bally, 1969) EM games left in the world that Striker Xtreme (Stern, 2000) left in the world for some obvious reasons even though the games are 30 years apart. Both productions were very close in number.

"The pinball hobby is a circle of time, if you stay around long enough to see the changes."

You should get a Bromley Little Pro to go with your Slugfest!
It may not be electromechanical, but it a hell of a lot of fun, especially with kids.
Perfect match as well.
Hard as hell to find with 200 made, but they are out there...cheap!

This has already happened, but not exclusively Stern games.

Holiday sales for used games are off the charts from dealers.
The market is going deeper and deeper into uncharted territory for very old games.
NIB games are already stalling, but this is not Stern's concern as they are not catering to the average home owner anymore.
Over blinged home games with $3K of mods have already stalled.
Overpriced HUO games recently produced in the last 5 years with "less than 200 plays" have stalled unless highly collectible LEs, and I still would not believe the owner based on code updates.
The days of flipping games are not quite over though, as they are still plenty of people "with the fever" spending money.
This has been evident with BM66 LE that have already exchanged preorder hands from people off this website.
Still humorous to watch people ogle over a sold $11K BM66 LE change hands for a "slot" and consider another "resale resale" when the games are still not ready.
Price speculation bites people in the ass sometimes, unless money and space is not an object.
If its not a problem, and its fun to do online auctioneering bartering, I say go for it.

However,when new pinball customers have a choice, they don't want to pay the price of a used car for a home toy.
Many don't know the difference between a Lethal Weapon 3 and a Four Million BC, anyway.
I cannot blame them.
Not everybody buys new games, and they do not reside on these forums.

1969 Midway Sea Raider.
EM periscope "gun" game using fluorescent lighting for targets and a light bar which represents the torpedoes.
Very popular in its age.

Example in fully restored condition: