Quoted from TigerLaw:I think we have another year or two of the pin boom. Pinball will have a bigger problem when there is an economic crisis in the US and thus far it looks like 2017 will be a pretty good year (granted that can change quickly).
Pinball manufacturing may struggle in a recession. As long as there are replacement parts to repair existing parts pinball will survive the lean years and oversupply us with titles in the peak years.
Quoted from TigerLaw:I think we have another year or two of the pin boom. Pinball will have a bigger problem when there is an economic crisis in the US and thus far it looks like 2017 will be a pretty good year (granted that can change quickly).
I think 2 things are going to happen:
1) Lots of collectors will cash completely out due to any number of reasons
2) The barcade fad is going to become stale.
That's going to hurt manufacturers.
Quoted from Nevus:I can't predict well and only speak for myself. I'm not looking to cash out. I enjoy pinball immensely. My complaint is the current NIB prices, mostly at Stern and JJP. They are just too high for the product I am receiving. I am not planing to buy any NIB at these higher prices.
This is pretty much exactly how I feel.
Quoted from Nevus:I can't predict well and only speak for myself. I'm not looking to cash out. I enjoy pinball immensely. My complaint is the current NIB prices, mostly at Stern and JJP. They are just too high for the product I am receiving. I am not planing to buy any NIB at these higher prices.
I am in the same position I certainly won't be cashing out, especially since I've just rebuilt my collection following some hard times.
But after BM66 I don't think I'll be buying anymore NIB from Stern or JPP as I don't feel they are worth the ever rising price tags especially when compared to say Alien @ just under 2/3 the price of a Stern premium.
But when it comes to the pinball addition it's best to never say never.
Quoted from Homepin:There is a thread right here on Pinside keeping readers abreast of EXACTLY this development - you should have a look
Better get your toolbox ready then....................
Where is this thread?
Quoted from TRAMD:Where is this thread?
Here you go, I literally just posted in it so had it handy
I think collectors with large collections will cash out, they should value is at all time highs, and collections will shrink down to 2-3 all time favorite games. I think Stern will go under as the volume will disappear, and smaller boutique companies like JJP and Spooky will thrive as the NIB market right sizes to 500 units a release for the people interested.
People have been speculating about people "cashing out" ever since I first got into the hobby. Hasn't happened on a large scale yet, no reason to think it's going to happen any time soon.
If it does, that's fine with me, as a big supply of pins will drive the prices down.
Quoted from tacshose:I think collectors with large collections will cash out, they should value is at all time highs, and collections will shrink down to 2-3 all time favorite games. I think Stern will go under as the volume will disappear, and smaller boutique companies like JJP and Spooky will thrive as the NIB market right sizes to 500 units a release for the people interested.
That's it you are cut off no more 420 for you 
A price increase for the US market is equal to a significant increase in price over here in Europe.
Not only that the USD is close to parity with the Euro, import taxes (19% in Germany) apply and skyrocket
the final purchasing price for the non commercial buyer.
If you or US pinball manufacturers would take a closer look at the Pin Map here on Pinside, then it´s quite obvious
where the potential buyers originate.
1. North Americas
2. Europe
3. Australia (Oceania)
No worries...this system has its own healing capabilities and the consumer will show the manufacturer that going
up in pricing might not be the best choice, risking that Europe and Australia could refrain from buying
games as they´ve used to in the past considering a more attractive currency ratio as well.
Quoted from TigerLaw:Pinball will have a bigger problem when there is an economic crisis in the US
Historically, pinball has done it's best during the worst economic times.
The 30s was the biggest decade ever for pinball right in the middle of the great depression. The 70s was it's second biggest decade and then pinball started to die out just as the economy took off. The early 90s were kind of flat economically, and we saw another resurgence in pinball.
The latest boom in pinball started shortly after the worst economic crisis since the great depression, so who really knows what effect a future economic downturn will have on it.
Quoted from RobT:People have been speculating about people "cashing out" ever since I first got into the hobby. Hasn't happened on a large scale yet, no reason to think it's going to happen any time soon.
Have prices actually fallen in that time though? If they start to drop, say, next year, then a self-perpetuating stockmarket-type crash is possible (ie people with large collections sell games to protect against expected future losses). The increasing number of games in private game rooms as opposed to locations has been quietly ratcheting up this prospect for a while now.
Quoted from o-din:Historically, pinball has done it's best during the worst economic times.
That is only true for benefit of collectors buying machines, not manufacturers.
Pinball remains a luxury, unless something significant changes from its status as a commodity good in my lifetime.
Pinball survives during the rough times based on the dedication of those people who decide to continue with the hobby once the glamour fades.
Some people are just so upset with Stern and their marketing, Stern may have have an extreme problem when the economy shifts.
They simply will no longer buy their games to support them, unlike what was done in the mid 2000s.
Not even a reduced closeout prices.
There are only so many "Avatar" games that collectors are willing to absorb for the glory of pinball.
Especially with other choices.
I am not trying to start a rebellion, but their current decisions are worse than what WMS did in the mid 90s.
They had much less competition than today, based entirely on changes in the market, not necessarily the manufacturers themselves.
However, this is still a good time to purchase machines for those titles, that people consider "less desirable", but not any less fun.
They are simply less interesting, because people have never had the opportunity to play the games.
Something you and I know clearly.
I keep telling people to stay away from "buzz feed" titles, and you can find some incredible examples of collectible machines in exemplary condition.
I have two machines "on the hook" to finish my Ted Zale collection less than 2 hours from my home.
Information simply passed from one collector to another for assistance.
Both will cost less TOGETHER than half of a NIB Stern game, but look and play just as nice and that says a lot for EM games that are over 40 years old!
Quoted from TigerLaw:I think we have another year or two of the pin boom. Pinball will have a bigger problem when there is an economic crisis in the US and thus far it looks like 2017 will be a pretty good year (granted that can change quickly).
The wave could continue in 2017?
JJP has DI and another pin release coming.
Heighway will actually have Alien in production.
Stern will finally get to Aerosmith, Star Wars, probably Pulp Fiction, Elvira and Iron Maiden!
Can they possibly roll all of those pins out in 2017 being behind on BM66 and GB? Doubtful.
Throw in some Spooky at the bargain end of the spectrum and you have a ton of pins hitting the market. Fun and interesting times!!!
Quoted from iamabearsfan:Personally I am surprised Stern keeps raising prices. If I was them I would control costs and own the mid-market. Let JJP and DP take the high-end market. I think they are leaving money on the table by going up market.
Why, they've seen time and time again they can sell product at MUCH higher margins and keep doing so to the tune of 'cant make them fast enough'. Why would the company that starved themselves to the bone to try to make the 'affordable' title want to go back to that?
Even if they fail.. and lower prices $500... people are already conditioned to the new price points and will be seen as 'cheaper' even if the prices are higher than where they started.
People payingg $500 for toppers.. $2000 for powder coated cabinets and stickers.. and throwing mmoney based on title alone is all stern needs to see to know they can keep charging premium prices.
Quoted from PinSinner:I am certain that a Star Wars pinball machine will be many peoples first time NIB purchase, for the fanboys and the serious collector. It is a license to print money for Stern. It will be a guaranteed smash hit.
Can I introduce you to Data East Star Wars? Or the other existing SW games??
Quoted from Lethal_Inc:That's total BS right there, raising all prices of distributors inventory. If it was produced prior to the new year and price increase it should be at the old price. I'm done buying NIB from Stern. Good luck buddy!
In the past distributors would use the news of the impending price increase to move existing inventory. Only new stock not yet delivered or new orders would be at the new prices.
Quoted from kvan99:Btw, Blackknight there is no way Stern's cost on a premium is that high. On a few occasions other pinsiders have enumerated the cost breakdown...IIRC the Pro came to $1200-1500 bucks. The Premium should have what, about $200 Dollars worth of bling over the Pro. I don't even think the BM66 SLE cost them $4500 to make.
If gross margin on a pinball was 75%++ you'd have a lot more successful pinball companies. You could build a game with largely existing technology with a small team and get even HIGHER margins for skipping all the innovation debt.. but it doesn't happen.
Nevus hit it on the head for me too. I love pinball, will never sell out but the NIB train is leaving the station.
I've said it before but this time I'm checking into a pinball rehab facility for NIB buyers.
I have plenty of great pins to keep me occupied.
Secondary market and exploring EMs sound good to me.
With an occasional Kapow mixed in 
Quoted from Trekkie1978:One would think that Stern is debt free. It's not like they have a fleet of trucks and heavy machinery
Stern just upsized their facility and built that out... you don't do that with cash as a business in a market where rates are so low.
Stern also has crazy amounts of inventory... that is stuff that was all bought with something. Again, not stuff you typically drain your cash reserves for.
Stern went through years of lean... years you were running the red.. so that usually requires debt to survive.
Stern took on investment.. that's money that typically isn't 'free'
They probably carry a healthy bit of debt from their move and normal operation.. as do most businesses.
Quoted from pinsanity:How is this not resale price maintenance as a form of vertical price fixing?
Simply put.. because it's one company selling their own product. What is illegal in the us is collusion between companies to manipulate the market.
Quoted from o-din:Historically, pinball has done it's best during the worst economic times.
The 30s was the biggest decade ever for pinball right in the middle of the great depression. The 70s was it's second biggest decade and then pinball started to die out just as the economy took off. The early 90s were kind of flat economically, and we saw another resurgence in pinball.
The latest boom in pinball started shortly after the worst economic crisis since the great depression, so who really knows what effect a future economic downturn will have on it.
That was when pinball was part of public entertainment... not a luxury good bought for the home.
Quoted from flynnibus:Stern just upsized their facility and built that out... you don't do that with cash as a business in a market where rates are so low.
Stern also has crazy amounts of inventory... that is stuff that was all bought with something. Again, not stuff you typically drain your cash reserves for.
Stern went through years of lean... years you were running the red.. so that usually requires debt to survive.
Stern took on investment.. that's money that typically isn't 'free'
They probably carry a healthy bit of debt from their move and normal operation.. as do most businesses.
Accounts payable is not considered debt. That's everyday business activity.
I'm talking about loans on plants and machinery, vehicles, trucks, buildings. Look at their videos. There's nothing there that's expensive. It's all hand tools.
Quoted from RobT:People have been speculating about people "cashing out" ever since I first got into the hobby. Hasn't happened on a large scale yet, no reason to think it's going to happen any time soon.
If it does, that's fine with me, as a big supply of pins will drive the prices down.
Funny. I have a friend of mine that said the same thing about Juke Boxes. Bottom line is pinball is nostalgic. It will fade with the people's memories. Will it completely die? No. I do think you will see a massive pullback and high-end companies will survive because they can demand the higher prices. It will become a specialty item.
Personally I will probably be shifting my collection more towards the JJP type games over time. I will probably keep my MM and CV just because I still love those titles. Collection will be at four games or so when I am all done.
"It's hard explain to others that people sold off their entire collections and moved on, when the previous owners are not around to talk about it."
- TBK
It has happened in the past, and still continues, otherwise dealers do not have games to sell.
It is incredible moving profitable market target that all dealers compete against.
They rely on mass market advertising to bring in owners to sell their games.
Sometimes trade games for parts, and vice versa, or even overstock NIB games.
I also have seen some insane trades for a new game where a dealer easily makes $2-3K on a flip the owner does not understand.
"Just a game."
I don't know if I have ever seen an "exit stage right" sale period however.
It is fairly constant, until the economy crashes, then a spike occurs so people can pay their bills.
Pinball machines are some of the first things to go out the door.
That is when serious collectors dive bomb into the market, just like the dealers.
All successful long term dealers manage both NIB games as distributors, and retain used game stock as supplementary income.
They buy up every mass quality collection they can afford, on a single offered price.
It is very effective.
In fact, they try to hoard as many games as they have space for overall in order secure their company during lean times, offer additional variety when new machines are not available, and still have something simply to sell other than Stern "WWE"s.
Most of the original reimports from 2001-2005 are long gone from overseas in bulk.
They ended up in the United States predominantly, with some in Australia and New Zealand.
Europe did not seem to really care at the time.
I helped move several hundred machines back to the US from 2002-2004 to several dealers, but I was not the only one.
However, if the market drives the sales, the dealers can artificially exclude availability of games, thereby retaining existing price inflations, and distribute their existing inventory that others may not believe exist, however and whenever they want.
This is called the "trickle effect" with artificial scarcity, and it seriously works for some titles.
Right now, dealers are just trying to keep up with demand and sell as many games as possible in the shortest time they can.
Smart ones know nothing lasts forever.
The dealers that don't survive simply are too small to continue business, or it was a sideshow for fun and a few extra dollars when there are "happy times".
Anybody remember this export photo to Australia?
Quoted from tacshose:I think collectors with large collections will cash out, they should value is at all time highs, and collections will shrink down to 2-3 all time favorite games. I think Stern will go under as the volume will disappear, and smaller boutique companies like JJP and Spooky will thrive as the NIB market right sizes to 500 units a release for the people interested.
Jack has stated that they do/can make 300 machines a month.
Spooky doing 500 machine runs might be right on for their timing to design and develop the following title.
Each company wants to keep the line building because that's how they bring in the money, but they all know that they need to be ready with the next title when the current title starts to near the end of production.
Quoted from Trekkie1978:Accounts payable is not considered debt. That's everyday business activity.
I'm talking about loans on plants and machinery, vehicles, trucks, buildings. Look at their videos. There's nothing there that's expensive. It's all hand tools.
Nothing I mentioned would be accounts payable. You don't buy a building on net30... when you buy parts to hold spares and inventory that you won't sell for years you don't drain your cash when borrowed money is so cheap. They would have both revolving credit and loans to preserve their cash flow and reserves.
"All hand tools" doesn't make a hundred workstations cheap... nor the thousands of square feet of production inventory that won't be converted to shipped goods for months... or the thousands of sqft of parts inventory for service/sales/volume buying. It's still a good size production facility.
Quoted from iceman44:Secondary market and exploring EMs sound good to me.
Gottlieb Sys 80s Ice, they are great and cheap.
I can understand a small price increase on new games going forward since they now include a color LCD instead of DMD, but another price increase on old stock DMD games is absurd! Are people actually going to purchase games like GOT Premium for $7K+?
The only game I would even consider spending that much money on would be an ACDC Vault Edition re-done with Dirty Donnie art and Color LCD. Paying over $7K for a DMD game is crazy!
Quoted from Trekkie1978:Accounts payable is not considered debt. That's everyday business activity.
I'm talking about loans on plants and machinery, vehicles, trucks, buildings. Look at their videos. There's nothing there that's expensive. It's all hand tools.
Accounts payable is listed under dept just as accounts receivable are listed under assets loans are listed under long term dept in liabilities
Quoted from musketd:Did everybody tell jack no his first realese was 6500$ and now was at 9$k and now at 8k$? Just curious
To be fair, Jack is offering more for your money. Price is still too high, but compared to Stern - you can see why.
Widebody, shaker, Invisiglass, headphone jack, all inserts color changing, Mirco playfields, high quality powder coat, 27 inch HD LCD.
Stern is charging more for less, end of story.
No pinball machine from today is worth $8000.
Sorry, someones signature and a new set of decals does not equate to that level of price to me.
Quoted from Rarehero:To be fair, Jack is offering more for your money. Price is still too high, but compared to Stern - you can see why.
Widebody, shaker, Invisiglass, headphone jack, all inserts color changing, Mirco playfields, high quality powder coat, 27 inch HD LCD.
Stern is charging more for less, end of story.
JJP has removed the headphone jack' invisiglass and powder coating from $8000 game
Quoted from JY64:JJP has removed the headphone jack' invisiglass and powder coating from $8000 game
And the lit ramps as I understood the matrix.
These price increases have pushed me back into the lower/mid market games including EM's. I am have much more fun with them. Parts are available. They are much better made than current Stern games and the knowledge base makes fixing them much easier. Its how I started in the hobby to be honest with you.
My friends and neighbors could care less which games I have.
I had twelve 10 year old girls over the other day for my daughter's birthday party. Do you think they played WOZ or KISS? The hit of the party was a game from 1969 and not even a pin.
Quoted from MikeS:I can understand a small price increase on new games going forward since they now include a color LCD instead of DMD, but another price increase on old stock DMD games is absurd! Are people actually going to purchase games like GOT Premium for $7K+?
The only game I would even consider spending that much money on would be an ACDC Vault Edition re-done with Dirty Donnie art and Color LCD. Paying over $7K for a DMD game is crazy!
Everyone seems to stamp their feet...followed by: "The only game I would even consider spending..."
And that's exactly why prices are on up and up! That "consider" notion is still alive an kicking among a lot of collectors, and the higher the price, the fewer they have to sell.
Quoted from Hazoff:Gottlieb Sys 80s Ice, they are great and cheap.
Alvin G's are cheap for what they are. Tough to find, but I paid 2k for a mint als with a nos pf (will be swapping pf's due to fade). Mystery is a mid 3k game, but very tough to find and probably would pull more right now due to people looking. Pistol poker is a 2kish game (getting one next week).
Quoted from 27dnast:Everyone seems to stamp their feet...followed by: "The only game I would even consider spending..."
And that's exactly why prices are on up and up! That "consider" notion is still alive an kicking among a lot of collectors, and the higher the price, the fewer they have to sell.
I don't think I'm alone here. I think it's all about perceived value for the price tag. I could justify paying a little bit more for a proven winner like ACDC with a vastly improved DD art package and large color LCD than I would for an old DMD based game with no improvements. If they are going to price old Premium games like GOT and TWD at over $7K now then they better have improvements such as color LCD and improved art to justify it. If they are going to charge you more they should be giving you more! I don't necessarily think the price is the sole issue here. I think plenty of people would be willing to plop down $7K for a GB or Met Premium with larger color LCD and updated art package.
Quoted from gearheaddropping:These price increases have pushed me back into the lower/mid market games including EM's.
Price increases had nothing to do with my interest in EMs, or classic solid state Ballys for that matter. Besides great game play, I also have to look at them when they are off, which I like to do.
At no time have I ever considered wanting to fully decorate my house with what looks like movie or concert posters from the 70s and 80s. I prefer original art with style and class and that's what suits me best
Quoted from Eskaybee:I can't wait for 2017. I want to see how many 'no more NIBs for me' people actually well.....buy an NIB!
Think you're gonna get a HUO star wars for -$1000 less than NIB 3 days after release or even 3 months? Think again.
I personally think you will be getting huge HUO discounts on the secondary market for anything they make going forward.
Especially Star Wars because they will produce LEs JJP style, meaning the stupid non LE continuous run of different models, "2500 Star Wars LE's". Patience will be required but people will be losing 4 figures on these NIBs going forward.
Always have that contingent of people that have to or need a quick sale.
Like Derek says, if you just say no to Stern price increases, wtf do you say to JJP and that Assinine pricing model.
Let's call it a $9500 LE and just make as many of them as people will buy!
I don't care what you think you are getting for $9500, it's a Guaranteed $$ loser on the secondary market if you care about such things
Quoted from gearheaddropping:EMs...I am have much more fun with them. Parts are available. They are much better made than current Stern games and the knowledge base makes fixing them much easier. Its how I started in the hobby to be honest with you. My friends and neighbors could care less which games I have.
Bingo Was His Name-O.
Once people stop worrying about epeens, they move into a complete new level of collecting and restoring.
I know I am speaking from a different perspective than some in the hobby, whether new or old.
Construction quality of EMs is extremely solid, and many of the games made in the last 15 years are long gone, yet games that are over 40 years old remain functional, intact, and have availability of replacement parts.
Incredible testament to their durability, and you are speaking from a person who enjoys modern games as well with experience with games made from about 1966-2015.
I personally don't have a lot of favorite wood rails previous to 1961 (thereabouts), only a couple.
I am not knocking any current "fun factor" or depth of ruleset of modern games, but you have to consider current generation, nodal, replacement, surface mounted printed circuit boards in only 5 years.
What will happen?
Where will we be?
Is Stern really concerned?
Stern only recently decided to make a another small batch of WhiteStar MPU system replacement boards and they sold out nearly immediately, and were prohibitively expensive at over $500 a board. There are some in some of the pinball suppliers, but I don't see this boards getting "cheaper with technology" by any means, just more obsolete and expensive. That is rough for those down the road.
There are probably more Joust (Bally, 1969) EM games left in the world that Striker Xtreme (Stern, 2000) left in the world for some obvious reasons even though the games are 30 years apart. Both productions were very close in number.
"The pinball hobby is a circle of time, if you stay around long enough to see the changes."
Quoted from gearheaddropping:These price increases have pushed me back into the lower/mid market games including EM's.
You should get a Bromley Little Pro to go with your Slugfest!
It may not be electromechanical, but it a hell of a lot of fun, especially with kids.
Perfect match as well.
Hard as hell to find with 200 made, but they are out there...cheap!
i'm out for good. With the lack of quality put into these new Spike machines and the cost, pass for good.
My sharkeys shootout has less flipper components break on it than my NIB GOT, and it has 5 times the gameplays.
i hope stern makes it, it would be a shame if i couldn't play other peoples breaking new machines i suppose.
I love stern, but i'm tired of fixing components that shouldn't break within 5000 gameplays at least.
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