Bang For Your Buck

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39

#1 4 years ago

OP

LRP

lpeters82

Pinside+ Frequent

12y 132K 5,289 8

This is crazy geeky, but for some reason I felt like using logarithmic statistics to determine the best "Bang For Your Buck" according to Pinside. With nearly 250 data points my formula for score prediction was y = 0.6485ln(x) + 2.4387. So for example:The Addams Family currently has a value of $6,100. I calculate the ln of $6,100 to be 8.71604405. Enter that into our formula and we get 8.091. This is the theoretical predicted score. I take the predicted score and subutract the actual score, which in this case is 8.533, to come up with my bang for your buck. Relative to other games in it's price point any solution above zero would be under priced. Likewise, any solution under zero would be over priced. Based on the formula The Addams Family would be 0.442, which is under priced and a good bang for your buck. Of the machines tested the top-10 bang for your buck games are: Alien Poker, Firepower, Metallica (Pro), Stingray, High Speed, Iron Maiden (Pro), Lord of the Rings, Attack From Mars, and Twilight Zone. I would add a caveat that it's not completely fair to really compare games outside of their respective price ranges.

You can also customize the formula by using your own rankings. For example, I personally have Hardbody ranked at 7.285, which is 1.387 points higher then the average. When I do the math with my personal numbers I end up with 0.305. Despite it not being a good bang for your buck for most, for my personal ranking, it's a value.

Data.pdf

EDIT: I edited this post with my most recent calculations.

Post last edited 4 years ago.

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#2 4 years ago

JAY

SDTMinSTL

Slap Save Podcast

6y 91,400 683 4

Love this. The list of the top ones seem to validate your formula.

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#3 4 years ago

C&P

Pablito350

Pinside member

Red Lion, PA

5y 100K 1,074 11 7

This is fascinating! Is it possible to put it in list form, or make the graph larger so you can see the ones mashed together?

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#4 4 years ago

T V

Olddragon

Pinside member

11y 66,050 636 4 9

Love it! Thanks for doing this. Care to share your raw data/spreadsheet?

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2

#5 4 years ago

OP

LRP

lpeters82

Pinside+ Frequent

12y 132K 5,289 8

Yes, I can share more of the data. Honestly, I just didn't want someone to get hung up on any single data point. For me, I'd look at the data and get hung up on Hardbody. I feel like it's a great value, but because of its low rating compared to more popular cheap games, like Flash, it show up as majorly overpriced. The cool thing about it though is you can enter your personal game rankings into the formula.

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13

#6 4 years ago

JAY

Phat_Jay

Pinside+ Frequent

7y 111K 2,309

D987D25B-1DD8-4EF5-8A11-6A6945D2D775 (resized).png

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#7 4 years ago

JAY

Phat_Jay

Pinside+ Frequent

7y 111K 2,309

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2

#8 4 years ago

HOW

hlaj78

Pinside member

Monroe, MI

12y 69,650 2,149 11

Remember who ended up with Betty Childs?

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#9 4 years ago

HOW

hlaj78

Pinside member

Monroe, MI

12y 69,650 2,149 11

How were the constants determined?

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3

#10 4 years ago

ROK

pinmister

Pinside member

11y 129K 7,643

One of my favorite bang for your buck pins is Black Rose-jammed packed full of goodness and typically sells for below $2600. I have had lots of people that want to buy mine, but to me it is not worth selling for $2600+/-, it is too fun of a game for the money. T3 is also another one for me.

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#11 4 years ago

GTX

gdonovan

Pinside member

7y 185K 13,220 70

Quoted from hlaj78:
How were the constants determined?

GIGO

If you are using popularity of Pinside ratings they are always getting gamed, so take with grain of salt.

Fun exercise though.

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#12 4 years ago

LAS

HighNoon

Pinside member

11y 80,100 1,144 54

What's your R-squared for that regression? Have you tried anything other than a linear fit? It looks a log regression could fit better.

--Luke

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#13 4 years ago

OP

LRP

lpeters82

Pinside+ Frequent

12y 132K 5,289 8

Quoted from hlaj78:
How were the constants determined?

I used the Pinside rankings and pricing. There were a few games where I thought the pricing just seemed off so I just didn't use them. I also tried to only use games with quite a few rankings, which became more difficult when trying to set the lower ranked games. With enough data points I don't think the outliers matter quite that much.

Quoted from pinmister:
One of my favorite bang for your buck pins is Black Rose-jammed packed full of goodness and typically sells for below $2600. I have had lots of people that want to buy mine, but to me it is not worth selling for $2600+/-, it is too fun of a game for the money. T3 is also another one for me.

Both games come up as underpriced using the formula. Black Rose is almost statistically identical to Batman Forever.

Quoted from gdonovan:
GIGO
If you are using popularity of Pinside ratings they are always getting gamed, so take with grain of salt.
Fun exercise though.

Yeah, I wouldn't trust any single date point, but overall I think the trend line seems fairly logical. I mean it's not rocket science to show there is a correlation between price and ranking. I just tried to actually draw out that line.

Quoted from HighNoon:
What's your R-squared for that regression? Have you tried anything other than a linear fit? It looks a log regression could fit better.
--Luke

R Square is about 53%. I only tried the linear. Given the unreliability in the data set, I was just looking for an overall trend but no doubt a curve would be better. My formula kind of breaks down towards the edges of the rankings. If you reverse the formula and solve for price you'd discover that you should pay someone to take your Raven or Whoa Nellie! Big Juicy Melons.

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3

#14 4 years ago

OP

LRP

lpeters82

Pinside+ Frequent

12y 132K 5,289 8

Quoted from HighNoon:
What's your R-squared for that regression? Have you tried anything other than a linear fit? It looks a log regression could fit better.
--Luke

Err...I was OCD and did the Logarithmic Regression. I do agree it's probably a better fit. Here is the updated top-10 undervalued machines based on Logarithmic Regression. As expected, this model is more favorable towards lower priced games.

Top-10 Undervalued
Firepower
High Speed
Flash
Metallica (Pro)
Meteor
Time Machine
Iron Maiden (Pro)
Taxi
Paragon
Lord of the Rings

Log (resized).JPG

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#15 4 years ago

SMK

TheLaw

Pinside+ Addict

Ann Arbor, MI

12y 162K 48,070 19 30 1

Quoted from hlaj78:
Remember who ended up with Betty Childs?

Eh now don't bring that whole thing up the internet just found out aboot!

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9

#16 4 years ago

OP

LRP

lpeters82

Pinside+ Frequent

12y 132K 5,289 8

Another interesting thing this shows is which Premiums are considers to be a better value according to PINSIDE voting. If you are looking for ACDC or The Walking Dead, this data would suggest you might want to shell out for the premium.

You could also sort the data based on your budget to see what games should be on your radar.

Under $1,000 - Flash, Meteor, Eight Ball, Comet
$1,000 - $1,500 - Firepower, High Speed, F-14, Space Shuttle, Gorgar
$1,500 - $2,000 - Taxi, Pinbot, Space Station, Sorcerer, Black Knight
$2,000 - $2,500 - Cyclone, Black Hole, Stargate, Terminator 2, Demoliton Man, Baywatch
$2,500 - $3,000 - Diner, Whirlwind, The Getaway, Judge Dredd, World Cup Soccer, Revenge From Mars
$3,000 - $3,500 - Bram Stoker's Dracula, Fish Tales, Tales from the Crypt
$3,500 - $4,000 - The Shadow, Indianapolis 500, X-Men (Pro)
$4,000 - $4,500 - Funhouse, No Good Gofers, Congo
$4,500 - $5,000 - Metallica (Pro), Star Trek: The Next Generation, Spider-Man, White Water, Star Trek (Pro), Iron Man
$5,000 - $5,500 - Iron Maiden (Pro), Deadpool (Pro)
$5,500 - $6,000 - Lord of the Rings, Creature from the Black Lagoon, Attack From Mars (Remake - Classic), Total Nuclear Annihilation
$6,000 - $6,500 - Addams Family
$6,500 - $7,000 - Twilight Zone, Attack From Mars (Remake - Special), Monster Bash (Remake - Special), Metallica (Premium)
$7,000 - $7,500 - Indiana Jones: The Pinball Adventure, AC/DC (Premium), Star Trek (Premium)
Over $7,500 - Medieval Madness, Iron Maiden (Premium), Pirates of the Caribbean, Dialed In

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#17 4 years ago

RAZ

razorsedge

FRAG

8y 78,850 3,257

Quoted from gdonovan:
GIGO
If you are using popularity of Pinside ratings they are always getting gamed, so take with grain of salt.
Fun exercise though.

Throw in numbers from IPDB.

Again, with amalgamation of numbers from both pinside and IPDB.

The being mashed together and not being able to read the titles is a bummer. Maybe, can we get a couple of zoom frames of the very dense areas?

Great stuff anyway!!

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#18 4 years ago

FJB

jasonp

Pinside member

Wesley Chapel, NC

10y 91,050 1,257 7

This list looks accurate to me since Raven is at the bottom

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#19 4 years ago

MSL

SantaEatsCheese

Pinside+ Pro!

Crofton, MD

5y 209K 9,666 6 85 1

I'm going to use this... Thanks!

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#20 4 years ago

KNT

Coindork

Pinside member

Cave Creek, AZ

7y 147K 4,623 20 74

For me the sweet spot in this data is the games in the $1500-$3500 price tier.
Looks to me like you get really good value for the money or "bang for your buck" with some of those titles.

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#21 4 years ago

MSL

SantaEatsCheese

Pinside+ Pro!

Crofton, MD

5y 209K 9,666 6 85 1

Allright... this is pretty cool. Plugging in the numbers and doing the math against the 25 games I've rated with my own ratings and approximate local prices, the best deals in pinball for me are, in order, Whirlwind, Stern Star Wars Pro, Attack From Mars, BK2K, and Medieval Madness. The worst values for me based off of personal preference are, from worst to best, Thunderbirds, Metallica, Avengers, Hobbit, and Flight 2000. This could be a good check to see if you are getting a good value or not based off of personal preference.

Name Price Rating Value
Whirlwind 3200 8.711 -1.1638
Star Wars (pro) 4700 9.07 -1.1628
AFM 7200 9.6 -1.0928
BK2K 2800 8.405 -0.9538
MM 7000 9.4 -0.9408
JP 3600 8.368 -0.7248
Pinbot 1800 7.929 -0.7178
Stern ST 4400 8.515 -0.6798
WCS 2950 8.091 -0.6038
WW 5100 8.278 -0.2748
Deadpool 5200 8.3 -0.2728
Addams 6500 8.533 -0.1938
Twilight Zone 7000 8.5 -0.0408
Fish Tales 3800 7.66 0.0312
LAH 2300 7.141 0.1902
DI 7000 8.133 0.3262
Deadpool 5200 7.578 0.4492
Big Guns 1800 6.76 0.4512
Flight 200 1500 6.511 0.6282
Hobbit 7100 7.005 1.4782
Avengers 3800 5.732 1.9592
Metallica 6500 5.884 2.4552
Thunderbirds 3000 2.294 5.2052

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#22 4 years ago

MSL

SantaEatsCheese

Pinside+ Pro!

Crofton, MD

5y 209K 9,666 6 85 1

Taking the lpeter82's math a little bit further, I've applied the formula to all NIB games available today... at least what is available between Pinball Star and 2018-2019 Sterns available NIB. Based off of this, the best bang for your buck and only games that make more sense than an average used game right now are from best to worst: Monster Bash Classic Edition, Iron Maiden Pro, Deadpool Pro, Monsterbash SE, Monsterbash LE, JP Pro, Medieval Madness LE, Iron Maiden Premium. The worse bang for your buck values out there is still Thunderbirds... Collectors Edition Jersey Jack games are generally not good bang for your buck pins, but I am guessing that is not a concern of the target market.

As always, we all have our own preferences.

Edit: As an afterthought, the math says Homepin would have to pay you $9,776 in order for Thunderbirds to be a good bang for your buck.
NIB value (resized).png

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#23 4 years ago

KWF

Fytr

Pinside member

11y 101K 3,412 8

OP
Quoted from lpeters82:
Err...I was OCD and did the Logarithmic Regression. I do agree it's probably a better fit. Here is the updated top-10 undervalued machines based on Logarithmic Regression. As expected, this model is more favorable towards lower priced games.
Top-10 Undervalued
Firepower
High Speed
Flash
Metallica (Pro)
Meteor
Time Machine
Iron Maiden (Pro)
Taxi
Paragon
Lord of the Rings
[quoted image]

This really seems like a valid analysis.

Of course, lots of games have higher values due to other factors such as rarity, artwork, etc. vs strictly game play review scores, but those are more specialty purchases for collectors.

On the whole this a useful tool for sure. And the beauty of it is that it doesn't matter if you consider the pinside top 100 review scores valid or not because they reflect the mass market sentiments as should the sale prices over time, so they correlate. And generally speaking if a game scores relatively high it is likely a decent game, whereas there may be some underappreciated diamonds in the lower rankings due to rarity, etc. but those are already outliers from this type of analysis anyway.

Could you post a high resolution version of the regressive analysis chart so we can see the game names on it?

Thanks for doing this. Be cool if pinside could implement a version of this as a realtime view on the market generated from live data each day or something.

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1

#24 4 years ago

OP

LRP

lpeters82

Pinside+ Frequent

12y 132K 5,289 8

Quoted from Fytr:
Could you post a high resolution version of the regressive analysis chart so we can see the game names on it?

Yes, I will post it up after the Thanksgiving holiday. I've entered more data points which in turn changes the formula, I'm a little over 200 games at this point.

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#25 4 years ago

OP

LRP

lpeters82

Pinside+ Frequent

12y 132K 5,289 8

Quoted from jasonp:
This list looks accurate to me since Raven is at the bottom

Yeah, I'm not a huge fan of Raven, but I was disappointed to see that Hardbody was still near the bottom. My personal belief is that it's one of the best bang for your bucks in pinball.

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#26 4 years ago

RPG

tilted81

Pinside+ Addict

11y 104K 2,389 45

Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:
Taking the lpeter82's math a little bit further, I've applied the formula to all NIB games available today... at least what is available between Pinball Star and 2018-2019 Sterns available NIB. Based off of this, the best bang for your buck and only games that make more sense than an average used game right now are from best to worst: Monster Bash Classic Edition, Iron Maiden Pro, Deadpool Pro, Monsterbash SE, Monsterbash LE, JP Pro, Medieval Madness LE, Iron Maiden Premium. The worse bang for your buck values out there is still Thunderbirds... Collectors Edition Jersey Jack games are generally not good bang for your buck pins, but I am guessing that is not a concern of the target market.
As always, we all have our own preferences.
Edit: As an afterthought, the math says Homepin would have to pay you $9,776 in order for Thunderbirds to be a good bang for your buck.
[quoted image]

No afm?

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#27 4 years ago

MSL

SantaEatsCheese

Pinside+ Pro!

Crofton, MD

5y 209K 9,666 6 85 1

Quoted from tilted81:
No afm?

I didn't have them on the list as you cannot buy them NIB from Pinball Star. Assuming a pricing structure of 6000/7300/9000 the ratings are -.0408, -.1988, .0502.... The SE is a great deal, the CE a good deal, and the LE a bad deal.

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#28 4 years ago

JPB

WolfManCat

Flip OFF!

7y 103K 897 30 1

Always felt ACNC was one of the best pins regarding price and value. Thanks for proving me correct.

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#29 4 years ago

OP

LRP

lpeters82

Pinside+ Frequent

12y 132K 5,289 8

Data.pdf

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#30 4 years ago

LKD

Luckydogg420

Pinside member

Kitchener, ON

11y 115K 5,862 14

When you add a picture, make sure you first select original size in the drop down box.

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#31 4 years ago

OP

LRP

lpeters82

Pinside+ Frequent

12y 132K 5,289 8

Quoted from Luckydogg420:
When you add a picture, make sure you first select original size in the drop down box.

Thanks, I edited the post to be a PDF. You have to zoom in quite a bit, but everything is visible. I also made this the OP, since I figure that is the post most would see if they are new to the thread.

Bonus Fact:
According to the data, the machines who's prices most closely reflect their gameplay are: Future Spa, Maverick, Pirates of the Caribbean (Stern), Bad Cats, X-Men (LE), Aerosmith (Premium), Phantom of the Opera, Silverball Mania, and Guns N' Roses.

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#32 4 years ago

LKD

Luckydogg420

Pinside member

Kitchener, ON

11y 115K 5,862 14

So, for the lay person. Anything above the line has good bang for your buck? And the farther above the line the better?

Just to be sure I'm reading it right.

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#33 4 years ago

ASH

chaz009

Pinside member

Milton, ON

4y 52,900 384 4 30

This is terrific work. Thank you for your time and sharing this with us.

I didn’t need this chart to find out my B66 is good bang for your buck but the reassurance is appreciated.

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#34 4 years ago

ED

Monk

Pinside member

7y 93,800 1,911 21

This is excellent information. One thing I might add is some game values are off in Pinside if they have been remade. One that comes to mind is AC/DC premium which has a Pinside suggested price of $7,300. This price lumps pre-vault prices for the original premium as well as the vaulted AC/DCs. I believe the price range for either a vault or an original AC/DC premium at this time is $6,000 to $6,400. I'm not sure if this effects more games or just this particular title.

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#35 4 years ago

OP

LRP

lpeters82

Pinside+ Frequent

12y 132K 5,289 8

Quoted from Luckydogg420:
So, for the lay person. Anything above the line has good bang for your buck? And the farther above the line the better?
Just to be sure I'm reading it right.

Correct.

Quoted from Monk:
One thing I might add is some game values are off in Pinside if they have been remade.

Yes, I'm sure there are several data points that are not accurate, but I'm not sure this would change the logarithmic curve all that much. If you find a game at a different price you can either do the math or just look at the chart and follow vertical line up from the price. Stop when you hit the curve, then follow a line over where you will see the projected score. So if you find a machine for $6,200 you draw your lines and estimate that you should expect a machine with a ranking of 8.1. If you do the math it's 8.102. Anything above this ranking would be a good purchase relative to other machines of that same price.

Here is the chart with axis lines to make that easier:

Pinball Data.pdf

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#36 4 years ago

???

stuckey_t

Pinside+ Frequent

Minneapolis, MN

6y 62,800 168 10 1

tagging along awesome post!

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#37 4 years ago

MBW

mbwalker

Pinside+ Frequent

7y 135K 5,325 9

This is neat. I occasionally use linear regression in my work, but maybe once or twice a year and not a lot of data points. Never thought about applying to prices vs. desirability.

Good job!

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#38 4 years ago

???

stuckey_t

Pinside+ Frequent

Minneapolis, MN

6y 62,800 168 10 1

Is Ripley's on here? Maybe I am missing something obvious but I can't seem to find it. I am assuming it is above the value curve

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#39 4 years ago

SMK

TheLaw

Pinside+ Addict

Ann Arbor, MI

12y 162K 48,070 19 30 1

Quoted from stuckey_t:
Is Ripley's on here? Maybe I am missing something obvious but I can't seem to find it.

RBION goes for a lot these days.

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#40 3 years ago

MSL

SantaEatsCheese

Pinside+ Pro!

Crofton, MD

5y 209K 9,666 6 85 1

It's been a year, but this is perhaps the best thread on pinside. Zoom in on the graphics for greatness.

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#41 2 years ago

HAR

harig

Pinside member

Wiener Neustadt

6y 51,850 549 7

what happened to that best ever pdf file?
I can see it in the preview but unable to open it? Is it related to the pinside server issue or gone for another reason?
Would be a pity

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#42 2 years ago

---

ForceFlow

Pinside Moderator

9y 238K 31,369 268 14

Quoted from harig:
what happened to that best ever pdf file?
I can see it in the preview but unable to open it? Is it related to the pinside server issue or gone for another reason?
Would be a pity

The file is still there. The link is just pointing to the wrong location. I asked robin to take a look.

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#43 2 years ago

RVM

robin

Pinside founder

Alkmaar

21y 192K 7,921 94

Thanks for the heads up. Looks like PDFs were all linking to the wrong (old) subdomain. Should be fixed now!

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1

#44 2 years ago

OP

LRP

lpeters82

Pinside+ Frequent

12y 132K 5,289 8

I'm glad some are still finding this geeky project useful. While price have certainly changed, I'd wager the resulting lists would still be fairly accurate.

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1

#45 2 years ago

HAR

harig

Pinside member

Wiener Neustadt

6y 51,850 549 7

wow-that was solved really quick-thanks!

It seems my personal favorites do match the Pinside rating very well so this plot is very useful to find the hidden gems
I´m happy with any update of that plot-please do not let it die

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#46 2 years ago

MSL

SantaEatsCheese

Pinside+ Pro!

Crofton, MD

5y 209K 9,666 6 85 1

I'm curious as to whether the results would be the same on these with recent pinflation.

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#47 2 years ago

MAT

snyper2099

Cincinnati Pinball

16y 103K 7,649

Stop wondering. The times when the price that's paid is actually how good the game plays are LONG past us! It seems people are paying good money for everything now... bad DMD games, crusty EMs that are not restored, it's getting kinda bad.

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#48 2 years ago

OP

LRP

lpeters82

Pinside+ Frequent

12y 132K 5,289 8

If what the poster said above is true and everything is up across the board, then the answer would be "yes". The games listed further above the line would still be the general concensus as best bang for your buck.

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#49 2 years ago

MIS

Lhyrgoif

Pinside member

5y 107K 8,621

Found this thread first now but it's a very interesting read. Thanks for the work put in so far and I hope it will continue to be updated with the release of new games.

Favorited.