I don't think the op is saying he's trying to make money, he just doesn't want to get burned, which is understandable if you tend to use money to buy other things. Some people are just wired a certain way and they don't keep stuff forever, so if you know yourself and that you may get tired of something in a couple years, this is a reasonable question.

Unfortunately nobody has the answer . I'd agree, though, that if you can get a good one for $2,500 it's not going to change much beyond that. It's definitely one of those pins with a relatively small spread, so you're much better off buying an excellent one for a couple hundred more than you are buying a beat-up one for a few hundred less.