lets talk about some spooky news that came out of GSPF.
charlie confirmed scott danesi is designing a second game that will be produced by spooky [SD#2].
when you might expect to take delivery of SD#2? to answer that question, we need to determine the delivery estimates for ACNC and continuing deliveries of TNA?
earlier in this thread @mjalexan posted a guesstimate timetable using a simplistic approach. he received 23 upvotes to 0 downvotes. despite offering what i believe to be a more realistic timeline, including the insight to justify it, for some reason i dont expect to fare that well.
Quoted from mjalexan:
This is a very simple model with the following assumptions:
18 months of production, starting June 1
20 production days per month
360 production days, 1.388 games per production day, 27.77 games per month
no corrections for ramp up, holidays, playing hooky or shutdowns due to godzilla attack.
mjlexan used an estimate of 27.77 gms/mo with no consideration for ongoing TNA production. i will be using 30 gms/mo as a start and go up from there, while also taking into account continued TNA production.
also posted on or around may 8, 2018 was hiltons estimate of 21 gms/mo with hopes for 30. again, ill be using 30 as a start and go up from there.
Quoted from Whysnow:
Late Sept I received game #2 (right after MRP)
It may have been the first weekend in Oct once I had it on route.
(memory is foggy but that is pretty close)
So 7 months since the first ones left the factory and now we are 150 deep. Looks like Spooky is averaging 21 built per month (through multiple shows also and initial production stuff) so that is pretty good. That would mean #420 should be getting built about this time next year
I would guess that number gets closer to 30 per month now that show season is closing, ACNC will be busy with refinement/ almost sold out?, and it is crank out the game time.
at the GSPF spooky seminar on sun may 20, 2018, kayte confirmed that after the family returned to benton, charlie would sign off on another ~16 more TNA machines making a total of 200 out the door. despite pinside numbers being around 150 at the time, spooky is 50 above that for a number of possible, as well as stated reasons:
1] games to route operators above #150 may have been shipped already
2] games destined for show appearances above #150 may have been shipped already
3] previous spooky cutomers above #150 may have moved to the front of the line
4] games above #150 headed to a common foreign desitnation may have been bundled to save on freight/customs handling
at any rate, kayte confirmed 200 completed/out the door as of the end of may.
eight months of production, from oct 2017 thru may 2018, equates to 200/8 = 25 machines/month. for the purpose of this discussion, lets increase that number to 30 gms/mo as a base figure. additionally, we will look at scenarios under capacity increases of 33% [40 gms/mo] and 50% [45 gms/mo].
in a recent interview, pinball stars joe newhart confirmed a recent jump in TNA orders. he stated that that a few months ago he was reordering and recving numbers in the 250s, but that suddenly those numbers jumped to over 300. at GSPF on may 20, it was confirmed that next TNA sale would be #426. so, 175 machines sold over the last several months. given that fact, it would appear conservative to project another 175 TNA sales will come in over the next 19 months/1.5 years, bringing total TNA sales to at least 600 by jan 2020 [the approx month spooky has stated they expect to wrap up ACNC production]. after deducting the 200 already out the door, thats an expected backlog of 400 TNAs [225 already committed and 175 more expected over the next 19 months]. when coupled with the entire run of 500 ACNC, thats 900 machines to be produced in the immediate future.
if production continues at a rounded up current pace of 30 games/month, it will take 30 months [900/30] or 2.5 years to reach TNA #600 and ACNC #500. nearly jan 2021.
of course production could take place faster, but when asked about expanding capacity, spookys response did not include expanding factory space. their expansion plans were more along the lines of making additional hires when 'schools out for summer'.
they also indicated that they were on a very timely schedule with pinballlife who is their primary parts supplier, that their trailer capacity allowed for ~25 games worth of parts per trip, and that they expected to make 2 trips a month. all in all, the impression i was left with was that they were content with, and limiting themselves to, making at the very most 50 gms/mo.
comparing the complexity of the build of ACNC relative to TNA, one would think that with ramps, subways, multiple orbits/ball guides, toys, sculpts, etc, it will be more labor intensive and require more manhours to build/fine tune an ACNC than a TNA. this could end up being a factor in their ability to increase throughput.
at any rate, here is a summary of expected completion dates at the current rate of 30 gms/mo, as well as 33% and 50% increases in capacity.
30 gms/month [current rate] = 30 months to complete 900 games = nearly jan 2021
40 gms/month [33% increase] = 22.5 months] mar 2020
45 gms/month [50% increase] = 20 months] jan 2020
when can someone expect a TNA if they ordered one today?
TNA #426 [next in line as of may 20] is currently 225 machines out, 426-200 out the door. if TNA production is balanced/offset with an equal number  of ACNC machines that puts a TNA order placed today at 450 machines out.
@ 30 gms a month = 15 months = delivery in aug 2019.
@ 40 gms a month = 11 months = delivery in may 2019.
@ 45 gms a month = 10 months = delivery in apr 2019.
production-wise, spookys plate is full.
with the guaranteed sell of SD#2 on the coattails of ACNC and TNA,
spooky will be busy making these three titles for the next 3+ years.
just be prepared to wait.
question is.. how long can you/do you want to wait?
ben heck was right.