I think what you're saying is that you never match even though it should be a 10% to match! A quick look at the schematic shows that the 10 point relay is the only thing that increments the match unit. Given that, I think you should be able to tell what score will give a match after the game resets based on the position of the match unit.
Based on the lights in the schematic it looks like the match unit sequence is:
00 40 90 50 20 80 30 70 10 60
I whipped up an Excel spreadsheet based on that sequence:
Assuming it is correct it shows that there is a 10% chance of matching, but that with certain match unit positions after reset you have zero chance (5 of them you have zero chance!), two have 10% chance, one 20% and two 30%.