Well I don't plan to just outright lose it, but I did choose my words in saying "few", "expandable" and "gamble"

I was exposed to BTC many years ago as a coworker was raving about them and we all made fun of him. The thing is that he really believed in them for all the right reasons, and good for him it made him tons of money.
Now I want to get in late on the bandwagon for all the wrong reasons. I'm fully conscious of it and I want to put a couple of bucks on 00 and see what happens.

Oh and we made fun of him because he was worried about the singularity and an AI takeover too.

Not sure why you would make fun of him for that? Unless he thinks it's going to happen next week? Because make no mistake that it is coming and most likely within most of our lifetimes. If you put a gun to my head and I had to guess I would say right around the time the last Bitcoin is being mined... give or take a few years.

You act like everyone jumped on this train 5 years ago... not the case. And even most off the ones who did bought a few Bitcoins as a goof... they aren't millionaires.

Same here. Knew about it for years -- heard about the story of someone trading 10k coins for 2x Papa John's Pizzas, but never really researched it much to understand what it was or how it was developing over the years. Looked difficult to use, had odd origins. Yet, had I known there was a bit of a stock market vibe to it all at some point, I'd probably have taken a stab at a few years back as a fun way to get a feel for basic investing & reading charts. I'm sure that's what hooked some of the younger generation.. better returns even at 3-5% than a savings account, and kind of a fun way to spend some time if you can time the market.

I'd recommend getting into the top currencies (specifically BTC, ETH, and IOTA) and avoiding the rest of the altcoins. Not that there isn't money to be made in alts, it's just that you're probably not going to have good luck predicting their movements, and just long holding some of the "proven" coins while ignoring all short-term dips and gains will likely give you better results.

The other issue is that you can expect in the near future a big crackdown on initial coin offerings (ICOs) and crypto-tokens that are designed as stores of value rather than offering utility functions for the network. For example, the SEC may ban Bitcoin in the US because it serves no purpose but to act as an unregulated currency (BTC is merely a store of value) but allow Ethereum because ether is used as "gas" on its blockchain to process smart contracts and is not designed to be a value store. I could see an exception being made for Bitcoin for various reasons, but anonymous currencies like Monero being outlawed because there's no public ledger.

Many of these ICOs/altcoins are not put together by organizations with legal teams that have been attempting to validate the existence of their coins aside from being money generators, so the SEC is probably going to outlaw them in the US. You are going to want to do significant research on an altcoin to make sure it passes what's known as the Howey test. If it fails, then the crypto token is considered a security or a share of the company that created it, and it will very likely be banned. Some exchanges like Bittrex have already preemptively started delisting altcoins that fail the test to prevent future problems.

Haha. He sounds like a funny guy

It's not like we would shame him and do it in a mean way. He was just super interested in the whole thing, we didn't get it and didn't give it enough thought to decide whether we thought it would ever fly or not and we'd kid about it.

I'm not even beating myself over the head for not buying in at that time, my point being that the very early adopters weren't necessarily speculating as much as they had a deep understanding of it and they believed it was a good thing going forward. In the case of that guy, he kind of stumbled into the riches but that clearly wasn't the primary goal at that time.

Edit: Oh sorry I hadn't read that you were talking about the AI part. There's a thread somewhere on Pinside about it and I do believe in it now as much as anybody else. But same reason, we didn't give it much thought. I now fully believe in it but don't worry about it much as I feel it's totally inevitable and I can't do anything about it.
I don't want to derail the thread, here's the AI thread in case you're interested https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/human-ai-will-we-see-it-in-our-life .

Lots of familiar faces in that AI thread. I don't think it's a coincidence that many of us in cryptocurrency also have interest in the future impact of AI. Though this thread provides more opportunities to take advantage of the future for personal benefit besides just investing in NVIDIA or SoftBank.

Over $70M in BTC stolen.

https://thehackernews.com/2017/12/bitcoin-mining-hacked.html?m=1

i posted that two days ago.

Hey Bitcoin suckers my original $400 is now down to $359.27. As we pinheads say $37.00 by Christmas!

Let this be a warning to you. As long as I'm in the Bitcoin space it will shrivel like a raisin in the sun.

Do't wanna be a party pooper, or a Don Quichot fighting against windmills and i don't have a masters in economics.
But i just want to say, we had a thing here with tullip bulbs in our past.......
When the bubble of greed bursts you could be down a lot.
Only play with what you can mis

Whaaaaat? What are these tulip bulbs you speak of?

I think we should figure out what family board game or street game Bitcoin resembles the most.

HUNGRY HUNGRY HIPPOS

I saw someone mention musical chairs somewhere..

It'll probably hover around this price for awhile. Looks like the rollercoaster is back on.

Oh good another tulips post. Thanks for the original insight!

Monopoly...and Bitcoin is Boardwalk.

$40 bucks huh? I think I might have you beat in the bad decisions department.

Last night in a smoky haze I decide to sell 160 LTC @ $97. It's trading at $130 as I type this. A $5,280 mistake there.

I take that capital and immediately buy 0.9 BTC @ $17,700. Currently trading at $16,400. A further $1,145 loss. All total, a $6,425 reduction in profit because of poor timing. A process that only took a few seconds to accomplish.

BTW, I'm up to 5.3 BTC for those keeping score at home.

Perhaps I'll get the next big trade right.

You referenced the hack. You didn't post that link which has a lot more info.

So you're suggesting I sell all of my Bitcoin and put it into Tulip bulbs??? Sorry, as I've noted before, I'm an idiot.

I'm going to hazard a guess and say that you weren't actually invested in the Tulip craze, nor were you around to witness it. I'll further assume that you didn't write your PhD Thesis on the subject. So let's just all agree to drop the Tulip issue here. Bring up something like the crude oil bubble of 2008. Or the dot com bubble. Or the real estate bubble from which we are still recovering. And you won't have a proper analogy because there is no analogy. Crypto currencies are the future. This is a fact that cannot be argued. How it all plays out, and which ones come out on top, is yet to be seen. But you are witnessing a first-time human event with crypto currencies. There simply is no precedent.

Now then, if we're going to play the bubble game, we should know the rules. The first rule of economic bubbles is that they don't pop or burst, they deflate. One must simply make an educated decision on when to get out, if what starts as a correction degrades into deflation.

In my opinion, that decision should based on the risk/reward analysis aspect of investing, and not on the ramblings of some billionaire investor, nor on the writings of some random pinball enthusiast on the internet. I have never "warned" anybody that they won't make money if they don't invest. In fact I haven't, and still don't, recommend to anybody, ever (with the exception of my business partner), to get involved in this crypto craze.

I trade stocks. Plenty of bubbles there. I trade options. Plenty of 100% worthless expired contracts there. There are plenty of ways to make money. When it comes to financials, more risk generally results in more reward. That's why I trade options more than I do stocks. Bigger risk as one could lose 100% of their investment in a matter of weeks. But when it goes right..... you could make multiples of your investment in the same number of weeks.

For the last month or two, I've been investing a couple thousand dollars a day into cryptos. Unless I experience a loss of life, or electricity, tomorrow will be no different.

I post frequently about my escapades on this thread. You'll know how it all turns out by sticking around here.

I, for one, appreciate your openness and candor about your financial trades. I'm dying to get in on cryptocurrency but have had no success in setting up on an exchange. I wanted to buy Bitcoin back when it was $3.000 and can NEVER find a way to make my application to GDAX or Coinbase work.

Mike

Wow... that blows. Got to be a way around that?

Whoops....Litecoin is one of my favorites as a long term hold.

Well, a few hundred years ago there was a precedent established. You forgot about a little thing called the tulip bulb craze.

The idiot part i don't disagree on mister know it all.
For the assume part, it makes an ASS out of U and ME!
Yes a long time ago my family actualy made a lot of money with tullips (and lost a lot ), but that's not the point.
It was just a easy to understand warning for all not so highly gifted like you, that it can be a deep pit and a los of money when the hype fades.
But not to derail your economics topic on a pinball forum any further i will leave you to it teacher smartypants.

what wallet do you guys use. coinbase requires a drivers license? you trust that?

dude you are like the 10th person to show up in this thread and shout "TULIPS!" without reading it. it's annoying after a while.

so 10 people share this opinion about the bitcoin situation an possible outcome , witch is not your opinion.... so it's annoying?????

insert welcome to pinside post in 3....2....1........

Ok, I concede. This is EXACTLY like the Tulip mania of the 17th century. You are entirely correct and I will proceed with the same expectation as the Tulip mania, which lasted a number of years. I'm going to heed your advice and expect the same outcome. So if you don't mind, it's still on the upside of the bubble so I should still have at least a year to cash in on the Bitcoin mania before it all bursts. Thank you for the generous warning.

In the season of giving, I thought I'd share a few unsolicited warnings of my own:

Don't bet on a lame horse.
Don't eat yellow snow.
When tying one's shoelaces, avoid tying the left & right shoe together.
Never lick a frozen light pole.
If it looks like dog shit, and if it smells like dog shit, it's best to ASSUME that it's dog shit, rather than proceed with a taste test.

You're welcome.

Everyone already knew about the TULIPS before the 1st person even mentioned them!!! So to hear about them over and over and over and...
Gets rather annoying yes. We're all big boys and understand the risks. If you don't understand the risks and you bet and lose your life savings...well that's on you and no one else.

The entire Tulip mania lasted about 2 years. Bitcoin has been going for eight years now. Virtually that entire time people have been yelling TULIPS! When Bitcoin got to $100...Tulips...$200...Tulips...and on and on and on it goes. BTW it's currently (down) $14,450 (thanks Underspin!) still up a bit from the original $.003.

Another interesting perspective , somewhat paraleling my previously mentioned concerns with regard to how bitcoin will perform when tested in a recession.

I'd recommend the Ledger Nano S. Cheaper than the Trezor but just as good.

He makes some good points. Is he right? No one knows. How will it handle a recession? He thinks it will totally crash in one. He's got at best a 50/50 shot at being right. Look the old farts (And I'm one of those) mostly do not get it. The millennials mostly do. They have already stated that they would rather put their money into Bitcoin than into gold in a market downturn. Will they actually do it? Who knows. Plus the "old farts" probably have a lot more cash to work with than the millennials do so that might sway things in gold's favor when the recession hits...again...who knows. Me...I bought both at the same time...gold and Bitcoin (diversify).

No. - he said he didn't know what it would do while he does have a track record on others. Uncertainty vs a probability based on past performance.

it's reversed psychology! so lets keep mentioning the tulips!
Youre welcome

Well you're right about him not saying it would totally crash. What he did say about how he thought it would perform in a recession was "My estimate, not very well".

it's not that it differs from my own opinion. it's that it is the number one knee jerk reaction that every single person who doesn't know what they're talking about tends to bring up. they pop in here without reading the thread and shout "TULIPS" as if it's some brilliant inside information, instead of the most superficial and obvious thing a person could possibly post.

...or step in it.

wopr (resized).jpg

Speak for yourself.

I'm an immature, 51 year old child who actively seeks risk.

50....and moderate risk. Although being in crypto some might argue about that.

In my younger days I totalled a snowmobile at 70mph, totalled a motorcycle (FZR-600), hit boat while pulling a skier and put a two door car through the ice a mile out from shore with 5 people on board. Luckily no one was ever hurt...except me on the motorcycle deal. Couple nights in the ICU and some new dental implants.

Anyone else watching with this?

http://bitcointicker.co/

Makes it more exciting lol.

I'ts a well known metafor in life as in economics.
One that everyone understands. yes even me!
I'ts an opinion and just like @55holes everybody's got one.
I understand that some people don't like this metafor or this opinion....but then just egnore it and read on, or go to an economics forum. Or start your' own forum no members no tulips!

in the meantime : cnn money

http://money.cnn.com/2017/12/08/investing/bitcoin-tulip-mania-bubbles-burst/index.html

Its just a opinion a name and warning in 1

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/08/bitcoin-is-dangerous-and-akin-to-tulip-bulb-mania-stefan-ingves-says.html

insert big freaking tulipbulb here:

mikedrop.

and back to pinball

it's not about your opinion. it's about not reading the thread, and busting in with the most superficial and uninformed possible take that has already been posted a dozen times.

Has anyone ever heard of any possible downsides to any investment that appears to be rising faster than usual? I can't think of any... guess I'll bet the farm.

Bitcoin futures will begin to trade today in roughly 6 hours. Talk about a stress test. This should be wild ride.

I mentioned to the wife this morning that if Google were to start it's own Crypto (I'm calling it "G-Money" because it makes me laugh) that Bitcoin would die a fast death. Google could steer results to retailers that accept G-Money, and in a final blow pair up with Amazon and essentially take over online commerce.

graphics-tulips-382197.gif

Nope...because G-money would be "centralized"

Clearly there are two kinds of people in the world - Those who know Bitcoin is a shame/bubble with zero intrinsic value and will therefore eventually go to zero.
- Those who believe that Bitcoin has a future as either a store of value or a usable currency or both. If either or both of those end up being true then the value is going to go a lot higher.

Both scenarios would look and behave the same. So we won't know who's right for quite a while. Vs traditional investments Bitcoin will "bubble" and "crash" many times along the way (already has). So until to goes to actual zero or shoots up and then eventually starts to stabilize in value we still won't know who's right.

Your call.

And option 3 - Those who don't have a friggin clue but know it's going to zero or know it's going to a trillion dollars becasue their second cousins nieces brother-n-law told them so.

And....option 4 - Cryptocurrencies are the future and blockchain is the future...but neither of those necessarily include Bitcoin itself. We've seen this scenario again and again in new paradigms. AOL was the king of the internet...until it wasn't.

AOL was the king of the internet...until it wasn't.

This Bitcoin run reminds me of AOL's run. I had coworkers that were happy to buy AOL at around $130/share. Many of them stayed in too long. I didn't have the disposable income back then to invest so I spectated from the sidelines.

I believe that any cryptocurrency that can process a simple transaction as cheap and easy as any current method will win the race. Bitcoin doesn't seem to fit that profile. Is there another crypto that does?