I guess he doesn't invest in the stock market, either. That's basically gambling.

LOL! Isn't that always the case!

But we shall see...I'll either lose a little or make a lot.

Now Coinbase is offline due to load. The big sell-off begins!

I'm surprised that Coinbase is able to stay up at all. I read an article stating they had added 100,000 accounts in a single day, following the announcement of the CME bitcoin futures.

I think Xbox Live crashes every time a new Call of Duty is released.

Well I've never known that to be an issue on Pinside.

Except for one poke at Pez on page two, not sure where I've not been nice, and the vitriolic responses from others was way out of line.

Yep, at the start. Got a time machine?

rd

Nope...already bouncing back - $9,897

You’re right, I don’t. Never have.

Every country/market is different. NZ stock market isn’t like the US market with the crazy rises.

The USA property market is nothing like the NZ property market. It makes Crazy gains if you know what you’re doing.

Like anything, knowledge in what you’re doing is king.

rd

That's the zillions of people waiting for the dip buying in.

Bitcoin had a $2,087.03 swing over about a 5 hour period today....lol

Yeah it's insane. But I decided to buy in more, in an amount I can easily lose, so I wouldn't kick myself like I did when it was $1,000 and so on.

There are a few reasons I didn't "invest" in Bitcoin several years ago (2013??).

First: anyone can run a Bitcoin exchange - do I trust the exchange? A relative lost his Bitcoins because he kept them in an online wallet. How do you know if the server hosting your wallet is hardened like a bank's online security?
https://www.wired.com/2014/03/bitcoin-exchange/

Second: Bitcoin is NOT a currency until it becomes accepted as payment for goods - beyond experimental or fringe marketplaces. At the time, I was only aware of one marketplace that accepted Bitcoin.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silk_Road_(marketplace)

Third: limitation on transaction times. From very early on, it was known that transactions would not be instantaneous. Without transaction times in seconds, adoption would be stunted.
https://coincenter.org/entry/how-long-does-it-take-for-a-bitcoin-transaction-to-be-confirmed

All that said, I am actually hopeful for a cryptocurrency - but I don't know if Bitcoin is it. If Amazon were to accept Bitcoin, it would be a watershed moment. I can't even fathom the repercussions. BTW, Amazon is the exact type of marketplace that COULD deal with the long transaction times.
https://futurism.com/rumor-suggests-amazon-will-begin-accepting-bitcoin/

an exchange is not a bank. it's a store. keep your cryptocoin in an offline wallet. bring it to the store when you're ready to buy something.

agreed ... but so what? why is it important that it be a widely-used direct currency? (honest question)

also, there are many legitimate marketplaces that take bitcoin ... but they are definitely outliers for now. i'm just saying it isn't only drugs and illegal goods.)

transactions through Fidelity and other brokers can take days to settle, and have much higher transaction fees. plus, as long as the integrity and security of the transaction is assured (by the blockchain public ledger), then the delay isn't that big a deal.

i dunno, i think they are probably waiting for the price to stablize. that's probably more important to them than the potential upside of it continuing to inflate.

You guys have to pay capital gains on profits?

Depends on your definition of “have to”. You’re certainly legally obligated to.

The "Bulls" won't let it slide.

Dash is now on a tear.

Looks like it, and ordinary if you mine it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2014/03/25/got-bitcoins-heres-how-the-irs-says-to-report-them-on-your-tax-return/?utm_term=.6192380d8d34

Because if its not... it's purely a speculative investment whose only driving force is trading between speculators and without a future for the product, you kill the outlook of future escalation = the bubble pops.

It is when you have no trust behind it. Do you hold all goods until settlement? We know how that stunts consumer transactions (holding till check clears, etc) and would make it virtually useless for real-time exchange of goods. Settlement time isn't a big deal because we are dealing with institutions that have backing.. through insurance, capital reserve requirements, fraud protections, etc.

A currency that isn't stable... is risk for a business. They don't want to take on that risk when there are safer options available.

The speculative trading is great for the people collecting the fees and for the early adopters trying to time their sells... and is horrible for everyone else and the future of bitcoin actually having a practical use.

Right now it reminds me of the Penny Bidding auction sites. The action is in the transactions, not the actual product being sold. I don't trust the trading indexes or exchanges at all... the conflict of interest and lack of oversight is pure combustibles waiting to go up...

i agree it's a speculative investment. that's definitely what i'm doing with Monero. But i disagree that the *only* force driving its value is speculation. also, i very much disagree that the product is without a future. i think the next 12 months will see a dramatic increase in the number of marketplaces that accept bitcoin as payment. i could be wrong. we'll see.

the blockchain was specifically designed to obviate the need for precisely those protections that middlemen provide. one of the main points of bitcoin was that it comes with its own built-in middleman protections in the form of a public ledger.

it reminds me of the early days of the internet, when people would wring their hands about how anonymous everyone was and how scary that concept was -- when in reality, the opposite was true. it's actually harder to be anonymous on the internet than it is in real life. same is true of bitcoin. if you want to launder money or do something shady, use cash. Bitcoin is neither anonymous nor untraceable, and people will begin to realize that eventually.

i literally just said that is probably the reason Amazon hasn't decided to accept bitcoin yet. i don't hope it goes up. i hope (and believe) it will find a stable spot so that businesses and consumers can actually use it as a currency with confidence. who wants to buy a pizza with an amount that might be worth $500 a week from now? at this point, stability would be better for bitcoin's existence as a currency than continued escalation would be.

i agree -- it's a very risky market and nobody should be investing money they can't afford to lose. it's brand new and there's effectively zero oversight, other than the protections built into the coins and protocols themselves, and basic corporate equivalent of survival instinct.

Can we please call it a mania now?

image (resized).jpg

nah. there's more to a bubble than a thing rising in value.

If it's a bubble then its a hot air balloon and someone just lit the candle.

What a roller coaster....haha.

I think the rise of Bitcoin is a black swan event and not just another tulip craze. We aren't seeing its price skyrocket just because of mania (which there has been a lot of especially in the past 5-6 months) but because there are a lot of forward thinking people that recognize that we have potentially stumbled upon the next major paradigm of currency. That's not just being a cryptocurrency, any country could make their own if they wanted, but a global currency that is not and cannot be fully controlled by any single government and is owned and operated by the people. That's doing for money what the Internet did for information.

I think we keep seeing the price rise and not stabilizing because we haven't actually felt out and found its true value yet. $10k-$11k per Bitcoin might still just be a fraction of its eventually realized value. Until we find that value ($50k? $1M???) Bitcoin is obviously a terrible currency ($100+ million pizza) but a potentially amazing investment. If Bitcoin does become a viable currency one day then we are still in the early adoption days right now, before Wall St. and big business have embraced it.

I've been willing to throw a little bit of money at this experiment. If I'm wrong I won't have lost much, but if I'm right then I will be obscenely rewarded. I think the ratio of risk to reward is significantly in my favor.

Bingo (and I agree with your assessment...only reason I'm invested).

My favorite crypto quote this morning read:

"I now predict Bitcoin at $1 million by the end of 2020. I will still eat my dick if I'm wrong."

-John McAfee

John McAfee is a looney toon, and has been for years.

Agreed, but he's been absolutely brilliant for even more years. There's a fine line between genius & insanity. Unfortunately for all, he crossed it.

"Can we please call it a mania now?"

To be fair, he questioned if it was a mania, not a bubble. And I agree that there is unquestionably a great deal of mania surrounding Bitcoin's crossing of $10k.

The top won't be called for a long time, so the bubble is in zygote level right now. That's just my opinion, I could be wrong. Fuck, I'm been wrong about millions of things in the last 51 years.

Why give up a good streak. Right?

At the beginning of 2013, Bitcoin was trading at about $25 per coin. A $4,500 (Avg cost of a NIB) investment then would have given you 180 Bitcoin.

If you sold it right now, at $9,475 ($2,000 Below its recent top) it would have net you $1,705,500. In 5 years. Doing nothing.

So, honestly, how do you feel about not having "invested" at that time?

I honestly just don't get it.

I'll admit that Bitcoin first caught my attention in 2014 when it was hovering in the $600-800 range. I didn't invest then becasue I didn't understand what it was and I didn't like the options/vehicles at the time for investing in it (they seemed "iffy/shady" to me)...so I forgot about it.

Obviously the explosion that happened this year caught a lot more eyes...including mine (again). This time I did a LOT more research, and I liked what I saw. So yes I jumped on a speeding freight train...but not just becasue it was a speeding freight train but because of what I learned about it.

The price increase this year appears absolutely insane...until you really start to think about the potential. That potential may never be realized; but if it ever is then 10k, 15k, 25k are all still early. If it really does become a new World Wide currency...even if it's just "in addition to" existing currencies...then 100k+ is well within reason.

Remember that a single Bitcoin is highly divisible. Even if the value hit 1 million then the smallest denomination (one Satoshi) would still only be worth 1 cent. That's a lot of headroom....necessary headroom, if it's going to actually work as a currency.

THAT being said there is a second option for value. Bitcoin could simply become an alternate store of value (yeah, yeah...sort of like gold). Under this scenario I do not see the eventual price going as high but we could still see prices tipping 50-100k.

Thirdly - Do not forget about or ignore ATOMIC SWAPS (so don't forget to pick up Litecoin if you do pick up Bitcoin). Atomic swaps solves many of Bitcoin's big issues right now (cost and speed of use). Atomic Swaps allows two people holding tokens on two different blockchains to trade directly – and instantly – without the risk of one party running off with the other's money before the trade is complete. That is where the word 'atomic' comes in. It means that either the trade happens in its entirety, or it doesn't happen at all. So, if a Lightning node goes offline or Bob reneges on his end of the deal, everyone gets their money back. The swap happens FREE of charge. https://cryptovest.com/news/lightning-network-first-atomic-swap-between-bitcoin-and-litecoin/

Then again it could ALL crash and burn (invest accordingly).

To date, I've accumulated 2.2+ Bitcoin, 326 Litecoin, and 38 Ether. I should have picked up more of all of them this morning when there was blood in the streets. There may be more downside to come but I'm also looking at the long term potential, not the daily ebb & flow.

Sounds like the IRS is coming for the Bitcoin tax cheats.

https://gizmodo.com/the-irs-has-come-knocking-at-bitcoins-door-1820877550/amp

So much for an anonymous currency, when you have to send in scans of your photo ID and a recent utility bill.

Will the Real Bitcoin please stand up?

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/11/get-ready-for-a-wave-of-bitcoin-forks/

We are VERY close to each other....I have slightly more BTC and less LTC and Ether. Although I definitely would like to pick up more of those.

I just bought another 3.6 Ether & 14 Litecoin. I need to slow down...

Or sell some more well routed pins, then further expand my crypto currency empire, and subsequent world domination.

2.2 bitcoin = $20,000? Ish

326 litecoin @86 = 28,000

38 Ether (etherum?) @440 = 16,700

= 65,000 ish.

Out of interest, how much did that lot cost when you bought them?

PS there really are 1000+ crypto currencies! Scroll down the list, there’s millions of them! Amazing!

https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin

rd

Less than that.

Now calculate how much I've lost since the peak of each of those cryptos just a day or two ago.

Oh and add another 3.5 Ether and 14 Litecoin to my existing wagers. I have no self control.

With that knowledge, could you afford to take $1,000 and buy $10 worth of the top 100 cryptos, based on market cap, and forget about them for 5 years?

Your entire "risk of loss" will never exceed $1,000. The potential gains could be worth tens or hundreds of millions... Or you lost $200 bucks a year.

Personally, I don't want to be the guy who saved $1,000.

Good theory. $1000 is like 5 good restaurant meals. And all you get out of that is a good poop.

Personally, I come from a very basic business background. I would buy something for $1000, sell it for $1500, buy something else, sell it for more, eventually that $1000 has turned into business Parks.

But I can certainly see the appeal of “the next big thing” ... everyone wants to be in on the ground floor of the next Apple stock ...

rd

bitcoin was never intended to be anonymous.

Isn't that graph a bit misleading? They have 2017 as "year 1" for Bitcoin.

Couple years late for this question...
As for mining you would need so much processing power at this point in the game!

For Bitcoin? You can forget about it. There all multimillion dollar farms in China, Japan, Iceland...etc... way to expensive for a solo operation these days.

Now other coins you could still mine. Litecoin, Monero, etc...

Sure, the red paperclip. Similar to what I did that with my previous rare coin company. Taught myself numismatics. Started selling coins on ebay hoping to make $5 per auction. Eventually reached a point where I was making multiple thousands on each coin.

There are millions of ways to make money. What works for you would not necessarily work (as successfully) for me, or anybody else. We all create our own path through life.

I started my current business by buying cheap arcade games, refurbishing them in my garage, then putting them out to earn... anywhere that would let me. All of my profits went into better games, more games, getting more accounts and better accounts. I worked 16 hours day/7 days week for the first 7 years growing the business. Now I work less, and play more.... until we close a deal for the arcade relocation/expansion. Then it's back to full time work for a year.

Of course! That's the easy money. The money you for which one does not have to work, to get. It just magically grows whether you're shitting or sleeping. The American dream. I've never experienced the easy money until recently with the crypto currencies. I've worked very hard, for a very long time, to reach the level of success that I have achieved. And I'm not done.

So the big question is: What are you going to turn business parks into?

More business parks.

I’m just waiting for the upcoming recession (which is overdue..) and I’ll be on a buying spree.

Buy low - sell high.

PS I was in your Fremont arcade a few weeks ago, good setup. I’ll be back there again in 4 weeks for New Years Eve! Party on Fremont!

rd

Arguing with the WSJ? You tulip deniers are killing me.

The graph represents the lifecycles of market fervor, and compares the timelines of the Bitcoin bubble with other recent events. Year one is when each episode started, not when a market was created. The article talks about Bitcoin's nine year history, so I think they got it right.

The headline said Mania, so it is officially one. Please change the thread title accordingly.

Damn. I'm jealous.

I only have 0.7BTC, 5.3 Ether and 5.2 Litecoin. I also have some Saicoin I mined and the BCH and BTG I got from the recent forks. Speaking of which, I really need to see if Trezor implemented the interface so I can claim my BTG.

I'm thinking of selling that and buying XRP.

Are you still mining? I'm assuming with an Antminer? I've been considering one, but they are incredibly difficult to get your hands on and the ROI is a little more than I'm comfortable with since I can't gauge the difficulty increases over the investment period.

Even if I were to order one now, they still aren't shipping until mid January.

I "invested" in Bitcoin for the first time on November 1st, and just sold what I had today. In a months time, I was able to make more than enough money to buy any NIB pin of my liking. Not too shabby. Once the CME futures go live, I might jump back in if there's a significant dip.

Luckily I won't have to pay any taxes (legally) when/if I convert my coins back to USD. Of course I'll have to pay the tax when I actually start taking the money but only on the amount I take.