Less than 2008? Several articles beg to differ.
www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/05/05/consumer-debt-hits-new-record-of-14point3-trillion.html
Www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/outstanding-auto-loan-balances-just-hit-a-new-record-and-delinquencies-are-on-the-rise-should-you-be-concerned-2020-02-21
Www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/11/04/we-should-all-be-concerned-about-the-student-debt-crisis.html
Quoted from wolverinetuner:Ah, Levi, you did not let me down. I was watching for that post.
(edited)
I am seeing this across every collectibles market right now.
- Sports Cards
- Dungeons & Dragons vintage games
- Vintage home games (e.g. Atari)
just to name a few.
I'm liquidating a ton of stuff right now while prices are high...
Quoted from alexanr1:If more a-holes like Levi spend more time helping others solve technical issues rather than being the thread nazi and bitching about someone’s thread is a repeat of one, we would have no broken pinball machines.
Not sure what Pinside would do if we had a few less a-holes like this. Guess it would be a nicer place to visit.
Thanks Wolverine tuner for adding to the a-hole list.
Normally I might agree, but you've blown off any common sense answers anyone has given you that doesn't fit your 'view' of the pinball world. The reality is as he posted...people have been claiming the bubble pop for years. Will there be one? Sure. When? No one knows.
Quoted from Zablon:Normally I might agree, but you've blown off any common sense answers anyone has given you that doesn't fit your 'view' of the pinball world. The reality is as he posted...people have been claiming the bubble pop for years. Will there be one? Sure. When? No one knows.
What common sense answers? Everything is opinion. I believe this, I think this...
I wanted was to understand if there was much leverage in the buyers community. It’s a data driven approach at the question hence the poll.
- The data so far says roughly 10% of the people on Pinside buy leveraged.
- That’s pretty low, so I would tend to think there is no bubble.
- The only unknown is, what portion of the buying community am I getting from this poll.
- Most noobs aren’t on here so it’s a very specific part of the collector community I a, getting data on.
If the 182 people who voted is a strong complete representation then I would say close to ZERO likelihood of any economic bubble in pinball.
- The only other risk would be the shear interest waining off. That is a complete guess which is why I stuck with an economic view.
So based on your comment, what are you saying my view is besides using data to formulate a more fact based answer?
I understand where you’re going with this thread but using the 2008 crash as a comparison is extremely off base. It’s like comparing apples to bicycles. Just because high sales prices are being post doesn’t mean they are selling for those prices.
The one that has my head scratching is the Pirates JJP ce going for crazy prices. JJP has a history of remaking machines. The people buying those games for 20k plus will be burned IMHO. Remember the Black Arrow Special Edition? But that’s not the same as the Hobbit Limited Edition. Lmao.
Quoted from kklank:I understand where you’re going with this thread but using the 2008 crash as a comparison is extremely off base. It’s like comparing apples to bicycles. Just because high sales prices are being post doesn’t mean they are selling for those prices.
The one that has my head scratching is the Pirates JJP ce going for crazy prices. JJP has a history of remaking machines. The people buying those games for 20k plus will be burned IMHO. Remember the Black Arrow Special Edition? But that’s not the same as the Hobbit Limited Edition. Lmao.
In 2008, people were buying houses for crazy prices and there were two factors that led to the crash.
#1) highly leveraged buyers (nice way of saying people buying houses when they couldn’t afford them)
#2) The belief that you could flip them and make a profit (leveraging borrowed money)
As soon as the market went south, all of the over leveraged buyers who thought they could flip them for a profit, couldn’t afford to hold their properties and had to sell. It was a house of cards toppling from there. I know it’s different, but leveraged buyers are a risk in any market. (The GME fiasco and Robinhood investors is another interesting case study)
Just was trying to see if leveraged buyers was a potential risk in the pinball market. From Pinside ads I see, a lot are being sold for large dollar amounts. (Sales pending or archived sales)
Like I shared above, roughly 10% is leveraged, so really no risk based on the data and not people’s opinions.
- As my dad always said “opinions are like assholes, everyone has one”
Quoted from CrazyLevi:It's ok. He did a "search" which revealed there hasn't been a price bubble thread in 4 years, and that there has always been a dire shortage of moronic price speculation speculation threads. Not sure how he missed these though, must have slipped through the cracks of his Sherlock-like investigation:
2000:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/high$20prices$20market$20collapse%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/gzU8ZAOxvUE/qII_fx4klQ0J
2001:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20decrease%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/3XZf_itbXjY/QI04T4Qr9UkJ
2002:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20price$20bubble%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/8CDhldb5kyw/JxQRQPIGmQwJ
2003:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20market$20price$20fall%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/clAO0zIHHfQ/CbExiOZrldIJ
2004:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20decrease%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/pXZDb-2V6Yk/GSPWq06-nWsJ
2005:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20bubble%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/ACTs0HpQktA/x-C5LZAF180J
2006:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20price$20bubble%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/dBrqPnk7mkk/nQYyh65_fewJ
2007:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20prices$20fall%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/femnxuH8a1k/oeXzsItDbOQJ
2008:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/high$20prices$20market$20collapse%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/44iMVjwb68o/wXb8-3F9vOIJ
2009:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20market%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/JsgTrS05pCc/8pB5t9oUqTAJ
2010:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20market%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/hNRZGnOAZ-Y/bs8Js1M7sUAJ
2011:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/high$20prices$20market$20collapse%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/DlcZoruS0Bo/VO_cueyPCEQJ
2012:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-price-bubble-think-it-cant-happen-think-again
2013:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-price-bubble-will-pop
2014:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/this-is-not-a-rebirth-of-pinball-its-a-bubble
2015:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/we-all-want-the-ass-to-drop-out-of-pinball
2016:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/when-will-the-stern-bubble-burst
2017:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/are-we-in-a-pinball-bubble
2018:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/why-i-feel-pinball-prices-are-going-to-plummet
2019:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/will-pinball-prices-come-down-
2020:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/prices-dropping-
2021:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-pricing-bubble-due-to-covid-one-nine
I think you are being generous by only showing one example of multiple threads that appear every year.
The economics is simple. You have a near fixed/degrading supply (with the exclusion of new pins in limited themes being built in recent years), and what seems to be a rapidly growing demand as more people are introduced to the hobby. On top of that, unlike many other assets, this is not a one or two to one ratio. I have no idea how many pins the average owner has, but what I can tell you is that for the majority of us the number of pins we desire is "just one more".
There is never going to be a fixed point in time where a significant number of owners either want or are required to liquidate their pins (i.e. a bubble burst) simultaneously. However, I do believe there is an expiration for the hobby, in general. As generations pass in the next few decades to come, I do see the interest in pinball slowing dying out, so to speak.
Quoted from Mr_Tantrum:I think you are being generous by only showing one example of multiple threads that appear every year.
The economics is simple. You have a near fixed/degrading supply (with the exclusion of new pins in limited themes being built in recent years), and what seems to be a rapidly growing demand as more people are introduced to the hobby. On top of that, unlike many other assets, this is not a one or two to one ratio. I have no idea how many pins the average owner has, but what I can tell you is that for the majority of us the number of pins we desire is "just one more".
There is never going to be a fixed point in time where a significant number of owners either want or are required to liquidate their pins (i.e. a bubble burst) simultaneously. However, I do believe there is an expiration for the hobby, in general. As generations pass in the next few decades to come, I do see the interest in pinball slowing dying out, so to speak.
Not sure why this would happen? There really is nothing else like pinball!
Quoted from Mr_Outlane:Not sure why this would happen? There really is nothing else like pinball!
I am not a member of Google groups shared so I have no idea what those are. Maybe he should have included some encyclopedia Britannica references too since I don’t have that either, thought this was Pinside?
I also came to realize that he is a pinball repairman. I now get the need to attack a poster, it’s in defense of his profession. Don’t worry there will always be pinball machines to fix.
Quoted from CrazyLevi:It's ok. He did a "search" which revealed there hasn't been a price bubble thread in 4 years, and that there has always been a dire shortage of moronic price speculation speculation threads. Not sure how he missed these though, must have slipped through the cracks of his Sherlock-like investigation:
2000:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/high$20prices$20market$20collapse%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/gzU8ZAOxvUE/qII_fx4klQ0J
2001:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20decrease%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/3XZf_itbXjY/QI04T4Qr9UkJ
2002:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20price$20bubble%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/8CDhldb5kyw/JxQRQPIGmQwJ
2003:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20market$20price$20fall%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/clAO0zIHHfQ/CbExiOZrldIJ
2004:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20decrease%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/pXZDb-2V6Yk/GSPWq06-nWsJ
2005:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20bubble%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/ACTs0HpQktA/x-C5LZAF180J
2006:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20price$20bubble%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/dBrqPnk7mkk/nQYyh65_fewJ
2007:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20prices$20fall%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/femnxuH8a1k/oeXzsItDbOQJ
2008:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/high$20prices$20market$20collapse%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/44iMVjwb68o/wXb8-3F9vOIJ
2009:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20market%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/JsgTrS05pCc/8pB5t9oUqTAJ
2010:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20market%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/hNRZGnOAZ-Y/bs8Js1M7sUAJ
2011:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/high$20prices$20market$20collapse%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/DlcZoruS0Bo/VO_cueyPCEQJ
2012:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-price-bubble-think-it-cant-happen-think-again
2013:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-price-bubble-will-pop
2014:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/this-is-not-a-rebirth-of-pinball-its-a-bubble
2015:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/we-all-want-the-ass-to-drop-out-of-pinball
2016:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/when-will-the-stern-bubble-burst
2017:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/are-we-in-a-pinball-bubble
2018:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/why-i-feel-pinball-prices-are-going-to-plummet
2019:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/will-pinball-prices-come-down-
2020:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/prices-dropping-
2021:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-pricing-bubble-due-to-covid-one-nine
That is how you make a point with examples. Well said...
Quoted from alexanr1:Don’t worry there will always be pinball machines to fix.
Yes! There's no way pinball is dying out IMO! 
The recent resurgence should be an indication.
Quoted from Mr_Outlane:Yes! There's no way pinball is dying out IMO! The recent resurgence should be an indication.
Oh thank god!
If the bubble bursts I may just starve! Everybody knows I depend on the 2 pinball repair calls I take a year to feed my household!
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