May not be 50% for wizard mode, but I would say at least 1 in 4.
Game is great fun for a while, then becomes.
1.) Start illusion skill shot.
2.) Hit trunk.
3.) During illusion, only shoot letters to spell magic.
4.) Shoot at trunk, if three hits, start illusion, if misses goes in circle to lock ball.
5.) Shoot adv clock skill shot on locked ball, miss and get Theatre letter..
6.) Shoot at trunk, if three hits, start illusion, if misses goes in circle to lock ball.
7.) Shoot adv clock skill shot or miss and get Theatre letter.
8.) Shoot trunk score multiball.
9.) Forget jackpot, shoot to score clock.
10.) Rinse and repeat.
The game is not about scoring objectives, the points come from getting to the wizard mode and with skips can be attained extremely often. Even your bad shots score towards wizard mode.
Last time I played the game was a year or so ago at a movie theater and I scored the wizard mode on my first game out.
Like I said, I want to say it is 50% but it could be closer to 1 in 4. At the end I played the game so infrequently because it became only about breaks, not about beating the illusions.