Quoted from Enaud:I
Health insurance is the big unknown for me. In order to qualify for ACA you have some strict income guidelines you have to stay within. Make too much money and you lose your subsidy. Make too little income and you'd be forced on Medicaid (if you had no assets. But hey, we have pinball machines, so we have assets and that's a strike out.). Make too little income and you get no subsidy and are faced with horrible expenses. Here's a link to a good explanation of how the ACA works. It's complicated and takes some time to navigate through. But it should help answer your questions.
https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-health-care-reform-questions-about-health/
My goal is - in addition to the small pensions I'll receive at retirement, withdraw enough retirement funds so that my income falls above the 138% of the FPL(Federal Poverty Level). Small income, and withdraw from taxable accounts for expenses, while still qualifying for ACA. (I'm using Ken Steiner's actuarial spreadsheets to determine how long my assets will last.)
Regarding how long it will last, none of us know how long WE will last. So, back to the actuarial tables, I see the need to plan for the money to last up to age 94. Likely won't make it that long, but it would be better to have some money at that age than to have none.
I haven't read all of the retirement information out there today, but I haven't seen this point covered too well in things I read in the past. Most of these tables and plans don't account very well for negative events. Not talking about black swan events here, but things that do happen more to older adults than younger ones. Did you guys know that 1 in 4 adults 65+ falls every year? Car accidents, that same accident that a young adult may walk away from with a couple bruises can break bones in an older person. Normal chores around the house can become more demanding. For us guys, setting up or breaking down a pinball machine should become a two person job.
Why bring this up? In my last ten years of retirement, my wife has fallen 4 times with broken bones on three occasions. Try as I might, I just can't always be there to catch her. I have read and implemented fall safety items, yet some people just aren't as steady on their feet. In each of these events we had to spend much more money on healthcare related items in that year than was typical. Insurance policies covered a lot of stuff but deductibles have to be satisfied and some care is just not covered.
So when I see a post trying to nail income right down to the gnat's ass, I gotta say that things are going to come up. Can't plan for everything, but you have to place flexibility in the plan. Most everyone understands the benefits of trying to stay healthy and the actions needed. OTOH, not as many people seem to understand the risks and events that impact health as we age, some of which may be out of our hands. Outside of healthcare, things are going to break or need to be replaced and they won't always last as long as they should. In short, sh*t happens, be prepared for it.