(Topic ID: 356304)

Random prediction

By jeffgoldstein2

70 days ago


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  • 44 posts
  • 30 Pinsiders participating
  • Latest reply 66 days ago by underlord
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    #1 70 days ago

    Stern spike 3 system comes out for the next game launch. They will use the excuse by saying that now that they’re using Spike three that their cost has gone down and they want to pass that value to the customer and we will see the first price drop. It will be followed with significant more online activity that will have paid services available or some kind of subscription model.

    If sales are sluggish on John Wick, I think this can possibly happen.

    Or the reverse will happen, which I don’t think it will that they will release spike three with a price increase but doubtful because I feel that they will feel that they will make their money back on subscriptions and online content to purchase which will likely turn off many home collectors.

    #2 70 days ago

    You might be onto something there. Venom was a flop. If the distributors get stuck with a bunch of games again, then there may certainly be some changes coming. The price points for LE’s are excessive.

    11
    #3 70 days ago
    Quoted from jeffgoldstein2:

    we will see the first price drop

    In the 30 years I've been in the hobby, this would be a first.

    #4 70 days ago
    Quoted from schudel5:

    In the 30 years I've been in the hobby, this would be a first.

    Stranger things have happened!

    #5 70 days ago
    Quoted from jeffgoldstein2:

    Stern spike 3 system comes out for the next game launch. They will use the excuse by saying that now that they’re using Spike three that their cost has gone down and they want to pass that value to the customer and we will see the first price drop. It will be followed with significant more online activity that will have paid services available or some kind of subscription model.
    If sales are sluggish on John Wick, I think this can possibly happen.
    Or the reverse will happen, which I don’t think it will that they will release spike three with a price increase but doubtful because I feel that they will feel that they will make their money back on subscriptions and online content to purchase which will likely turn off many home collectors.

    We’ve known for quite some time that Spike 3 will drop this year, and that Metallic is being retooled as an LCD game. Take a known winner and pair it with new tech to minimize losses.

    Smart game plan by Stern

    #6 70 days ago
    Quoted from Isochronic_Frost:

    We’ve known for quite some time that Spike 3 will drop this year, and that Metallic is being retooled as an LCD game. Take a known winner and pair it with new tech to minimize losses.
    Smart game plan by Stern

    I heard a rumor also that it’s supposed to be a full redesigned game. I’m hoping for a redesign and not an enhanced version of the original game, which will likely piss off many LE owners. They already made that mistake twice with the Jurassic Park and Elvira new LE runs.

    #7 70 days ago
    Quoted from schudel5:

    In the 30 years I've been in the hobby, this would be a first.

    Stern has dripped prices 100 before, but it was street price days.
    Although I think we're thankfully back in those times

    #8 70 days ago

    I think the price drop is a good prediction. I’ve always been of the mindset that they will not do DLC as they know their customer base quite well. We’ll see though.

    #9 70 days ago

    This is an interesting idea. Of course, they'd need an excuse to lower the price of the existing games too. But yeah, I think this is all possible. Except a price bump - that would seem like a kiss of death for NIB sales at a time when sales are slumping, inventory is large, and used prices are going down.

    #10 70 days ago

    It really depends on their PNL statement IMO. Yes sales have obviously slowed but with the huge increase in prices over last few years, their total amount of profit has potentially stayed the same or possibly increased. I also think it will be highly dependant on their distro network and how they can pressure Stern because all those games sitting in inventory still means money in Sterns pockets. This leaves distros holding the bag not Stern. Stern is great at keeping the lines moving. Do we think a $100 or $200 decrease is really a win for consumers? Yes money is money but a few hundred dollars at these insane prices really wouldnt entice me to buy more. I have shifted to used older games for now unless there is some super theme in my top 5. Every new game is attainable for $500-thousands less in just a few months. Just my 2 cents.

    #11 70 days ago

    My prediction is NIB prices will remain unchanged.

    #12 70 days ago

    Do you know what that would do? Kill the distributor model.

    #13 70 days ago

    Dropping prices is tricky, just ask Tesla. It may have led to increased short term sales but it really pissed off current owners and may have led to long term sales damage.

    #14 70 days ago
    Quoted from Mr68:

    My prediction is NIB prices will remain unchanged.

    Agreed. A price increase would turn Stern into a chasm-jumping lemming. Epic stupidity piled onto a quicksand foundation.

    Price decrease is a nuclear option according to Stern; a sign of ego weakness. Seth-unacceptable.

    Price staying the same is having one pawn and the King left on this bad business chessboard.

    Junk Spike 2 like they did Spike 1 and leave Spike 3 as last man standing.

    #15 70 days ago

    Prices aren’t coming down. I bet they were planning a price increase with Spike 3, which is now on hold. Stern will allow distributors to lower retails on Spike 2 inventory once Spike 3 is out.

    #16 70 days ago
    Quoted from jeffgoldstein2:

    Stern spike 3 system comes out for the next game launch. They will use the excuse by saying that now that they’re using Spike three that their cost has gone down and they want to pass that value to the customer and we will see the first price drop. It will be followed with significant more online activity that will have paid services available or some kind of subscription model.
    If sales are sluggish on John Wick, I think this can possibly happen.
    Or the reverse will happen, which I don’t think it will that they will release spike three with a price increase but doubtful because I feel that they will feel that they will make their money back on subscriptions and online content to purchase which will likely turn off many home collectors.

    For those keeping score, Jeff is predicting that the prices will go down. Or they will go up!

    #17 70 days ago
    Quoted from CrazyLevi:

    For those keeping score, Jeff is predicting that either the prices will go down. Or they will go up!

    He’s 50% right!

    #18 70 days ago

    If Stern drops prices, I’ll eat my powerball.

    #19 70 days ago

    Up until 2014 or so Manufacture retail price on Sterns meant nothing. It was always street price and who you knew. At that time the street prices were roughly 15% less than Suggested price. Stern won't lower their suggested price; it will be up to the distributers to do it. Remember Distributers can't post a price lower than what Stern allows, but if you call a distributer deals can be made.

    #21 69 days ago
    Quoted from schudel5:

    In the 30 years I've been in the hobby, this would be a first.

    Price drop never gonna happen

    I remember buying AC/DC le for $6500
    Now these things are $13,000 !!!!

    #22 69 days ago

    I predict at least a dozen more threads in the next 48 to 72 hours questioning the future of pinball prices as well as their grievances over John Wick?

    #23 69 days ago
    Quoted from rvdv:

    Price drop never gonna happen
    I remember buying AC/DC le for $6500
    Now these things are $13,000 !!!!

    Prices are definitely going to come down via Stern. They are coming down from distros already, which is a sure sign. It might not be their next title, but saturation and the effects of high interest rates are here. Eating 2 or 3k on nib will only last so long. We've seen the peak!

    #24 69 days ago
    Quoted from Tranquilize:

    Prices are definitely going to come down via Stern. They are coming down from distros already, which is a sure sign. It might not be their next title, but saturation and the effects of high interest rates are here. Eating 2 or 3k on nib will only last so long. We've seen the peak!

    We, as the collective customers have, Stern is eternally pricing for the stars.

    Why be smart when you can be smrt.

    #25 69 days ago
    Quoted from jackd104:

    If Stern drops prices, I’ll eat my powerball.

    I predict we will then have another pinball in the toilet thread

    #26 69 days ago
    Quoted from Bud:

    I predict we will then have another pinball in the toilet thread

    Two or three white knights, couple of LE buyers posturing aggressively, and then everyone else who sees the real situation.

    It’ll be fun.

    #27 69 days ago

    Got to hear the George Gomez interview

    1st of all he’s always been a really nice guy and what I perceive to be genuine.

    I don’t believe there were any “hard questions” asked. It was just a platform for George to explain what happened with gun gate.

    He made the comment that the goal is to grow the company by “getting more eyeballs to see games outside the pinball community”

    Obviously why they do CES etc. A worthy goal.
    We all want pinball to thrive and survive.

    Seth Davis was brought in to “run the business” and carry on the legacy of Gary and Stern pinball.
    No “pricing” questions.

    While trying to GROW the pinball world you don’t want to lose some of your BASE at the same time.
    We never get to hear anything about what can be done to maintain the “loyal base of customers”.

    All manufacturers tend to take us for granted, not by their words but by their actions.

    Have you ever heard of a “loyalty” or “rewards” program?

    It’s kind of a thing companies use to promote loyalty to the brand.

    Maybe earning points towards a small discount on accessories or future games.

    There was that tough question regarding why the outsider dude got the game to review 1st.

    George said they need to do a better job of involving the “media” and distributors in the rollout process.

    Great, that’s all that matters, the talking heads are happy.

    Two full teams are dedicated to IC related integration. More of the BOM diverted to something that many people just don’t use. Ok, is what it is.

    Finally, with regards to preserving Gary’s legacy of Stern pinball. He recounted the times that Stern nearly went bankrupt and took Gary under.

    I’m happy they have their huge new offices/factory, and current success BUT don’t make the mistake of forgetting about your LOYAL BASE of customers.
    Saying it isn’t enough. The valleys of pinball history can’t ever come again? Ok

    Loving Bond and Jaws, Wick is in the study phase for me. Won’t make the same mistake I made on Jaws

    #28 69 days ago

    And my random prediction. ZERO chance there is a price increase.

    A decrease wouldn’t be meaningful.

    #29 69 days ago

    No change in price, they will just let it ride and eventually it will seem reasonable as inflation continues.
    Problem solved.

    #30 69 days ago

    In 2017 Stern Pros were $6199, but in 2018 they went down to $5999 IIRC. So the price has dropped before, but a couple hundo isnt going to move the needle for many.

    #31 69 days ago

    Prices won't come down. Why would they?

    They build them based on demand, and for titles that pile up in inventory, they'll just discount them like they did for Turtles and Zeppelin.

    It makes no difference if they sell all LEs the first day, or after six months, or if they end up only making 700 of a 1000 run.

    Making more profit on less sales may be the sweet spot for them.

    #32 69 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    Loving Bond and Jaws, Wick is in the study phase for me. Won’t make the same mistake I made on Jaws

    Bond is awesome. Jaws shoots well. What mistake did you make on Jaws?

    #33 69 days ago
    Quoted from schudel5:

    In the 30 years I've been in the hobby, this would be a first.

    Not to long ago, Stern allowed distributors to do a clearance sale of a few older titles that weren't moving: TMNT, Rush, LZ

    https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/stern-has-apparently-dropped-the-mandatory-msrp-pricing-from-distros

    But as for a day 1 NIB price reduction compared to recent spike 2 NIB game prices, no, I don't imagine that would be likely to happen. There's no benefit to do that from Stern's perspective. They're still selling games--just not to those of us who don't want or can't swing a NIB purchase at current prices.

    #34 69 days ago
    Quoted from kklank:

    You might be onto something there. Venom was a flop. If the distributors get stuck with a bunch of games again, then there may certainly be some changes coming. The price points for LE’s are excessive.

    I agree 100%. I’ve saved 72k since Godzilla was released. I have not bought a Stern LE since. If we all did this prices would come back down. 13k for a stripped down(nonmechs) LE with no topper etc is ridiculous.

    #35 69 days ago

    $13k is just Stern pumping up the books before Gary cashes out with a sale; ya gotta make the business look as profitable as possible before you exit. I really wonder if the buyers of Stern realize that saturation is on a knife edge and could make selling mediocre games more difficult in the future.

    #36 69 days ago

    To me the “loyal customer” or “people outside the pinball community” doesn’t really exist. I would venture to say that it all starts and grows first with a loyal customer and pinball community. Pinball simply wouldn’t exist without these people to introduce layman people to pinball. I don’t know a single operator that doesn’t fit into those categories. I would think there is no such thing as an operator who is just blindly buying any machine without first being into one or both categories. They operate because they love it or were raised into it.

    When I was an operator, I didn’t buy any machine for route that I wouldn’t want at home. So if I didn’t like a particular title or brand, I had others to choose from. Non pinball people who came to my locations wouldn’t have a clue of what the latest title is or selection out there.

    #37 69 days ago

    As stated previously by several people, it is getting nearly impossible to make money as an operator. Especially if one is starting new from scratch. The old statement of a machine being on route for ten years is not a good business plan to finally see a ROI for a decade of hard work and serious time and money.

    #38 69 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    Got to hear the George Gomez interview
    1st of all he’s always been a really nice guy and what I perceive to be genuine.
    I don’t believe there were any “hard questions” asked. It was just a platform for George to explain what happened with gun gate.
    He made the comment that the goal is to grow the company by “getting more eyeballs to see games outside the pinball community”
    Obviously why they do CES etc. A worthy goal.
    We all want pinball to thrive and survive.
    Seth Davis was brought in to “run the business” and carry on the legacy of Gary and Stern pinball.
    No “pricing” questions.
    While trying to GROW the pinball world you don’t want to lose some of your BASE at the same time.
    We never get to hear anything about what can be done to maintain the “loyal base of customers”.
    All manufacturers tend to take us for granted, not by their words but by their actions.
    Have you ever heard of a “loyalty” or “rewards” program?
    It’s kind of a thing companies use to promote loyalty to the brand.
    Maybe earning points towards a small discount on accessories or future games.
    There was that tough question regarding why the outsider dude got the game to review 1st.
    George said they need to do a better job of involving the “media” and distributors in the rollout process.
    Great, that’s all that matters, the talking heads are happy.
    Two full teams are dedicated to IC related integration. More of the BOM diverted to something that many people just don’t use. Ok, is what it is.
    Finally, with regards to preserving Gary’s legacy of Stern pinball. He recounted the times that Stern nearly went bankrupt and took Gary under.
    I’m happy they have their huge new offices/factory, and current success BUT don’t make the mistake of forgetting about your LOYAL BASE of customers.
    Saying it isn’t enough. The valleys of pinball history can’t ever come again? Ok
    Loving Bond and Jaws, Wick is in the study phase for me. Won’t make the same mistake I made on Jaws

    What was the jaws mistake? I'm really lovin ours.

    #40 69 days ago
    Quoted from jeffgoldstein2:

    I heard a rumor also that it’s supposed to be a full redesigned game.

    I don't see Stern spending the time and money to do this. Make it a showpiece for Spike3's power with their first Spike3 vault of a SAM game - a well-regarded game. The only major change would be (hopefully, praying) updating the graphic to the LCDs color and different aspect ratio. Oh, and maybe remaster the audio to take advantage of Spike's improved sound capabilities. Call it a day. If they just emulate the DMD like the spike2 system menus do that would be worst case scenario, but I don't see it happening.

    #42 69 days ago

    Didn’t American Pinball release Hot Wheels much lower in price than Oktoberfest?

    #43 69 days ago
    Quoted from jeffgoldstein2:

    Didn’t American Pinball release Hot Wheels much lower in price than Oktoberfest?

    Yes, they massively cost-reduced the game to get the price down for Hot Wheels. No special machine-specific mechs, less overall mechs, generic cabinet, etc.

    #44 66 days ago
    Quoted from Hayfarmer:

    What was the jaws mistake? I'm really lovin ours.

    I believe Doug was referring to the price nib.

    Otherwise…

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