One word: G&R.

This.. priced to sell to buy newer machines.

I'd like to pitch a theory that I believe is the first of it's kind here:

The bubble has burst!

I think this time the bubble is really gonna burst and prices are dropping. Unlike these false alarms:

2000:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/high$20prices$20market$20collapse%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/gzU8ZAOxvUE/qII_fx4klQ0J

2001:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20decrease%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/3XZf_itbXjY/QI04T4Qr9UkJ

2002:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20price$20bubble%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/8CDhldb5kyw/JxQRQPIGmQwJ

2003:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20market$20price$20fall%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/clAO0zIHHfQ/CbExiOZrldIJ

2004:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20decrease%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/pXZDb-2V6Yk/GSPWq06-nWsJ

2005:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20bubble%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/ACTs0HpQktA/x-C5LZAF180J

2006:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20price$20bubble%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/dBrqPnk7mkk/nQYyh65_fewJ

2007:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20prices$20fall%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/femnxuH8a1k/oeXzsItDbOQJ

2008:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/high$20prices$20market$20collapse%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/44iMVjwb68o/wXb8-3F9vOIJ

2009:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20market%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/JsgTrS05pCc/8pB5t9oUqTAJ

2010:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20market%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/hNRZGnOAZ-Y/bs8Js1M7sUAJ

2011:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/high$20prices$20market$20collapse%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/DlcZoruS0Bo/VO_cueyPCEQJ

2012:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-price-bubble-think-it-cant-happen-think-again

2013:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-price-bubble-will-pop

2014:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/this-is-not-a-rebirth-of-pinball-its-a-bubble

2015:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/we-all-want-the-ass-to-drop-out-of-pinball

2016:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/when-will-the-stern-bubble-burst

2017:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/are-we-in-a-pinball-bubble

2018:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/why-i-feel-pinball-prices-are-going-to-plummet

2019:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/will-pinball-prices-come-down-

2020:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/prices-dropping-

Drops mike!

Hahah it makes me so happy every single time Levi posts that!

I wasted way too much time at work on that search NOT to post it every time!

I'll have to update it with this thread through.

Man, 500 machines just sold out at $12,500. I don't think that is a bubble popping indication.

It will pop when they come back to the market because people got epilepsy crisis !

And still overpriced! It (along with Munsters) are the NASCAR and Roller Coaster Tycoon of their age.

(No, that isn't an insult to RCT, I owned one and enjoyed it for years, but I'd still never call it a top tier game)

Economic collapse soon.

Lightly used games of the last decade are dropping in price. Older games are still rising. A decent WCS was 2500 2 years ago. Now it is 3200. Black Knight was 1500 2 years ago. Now it runs about 2500. With manufacturers putting games back on the line after initial runs it hurts resale value. Anything they are still making or can still make is hurting. Until these companies limit their remakes newer games will continue to drop like a rock. Look at R and M and Pirates vs. even a popular unlimited game... like JurassicPark, Star Trek, or WOZ.

Popular & well received games seem to hold their value pretty well, and in a few cases, sell for above what the MSRP was. Games that are not as well received seem to sell for a bit less. It's not really that surprising.

I wouldn't say the games of this era are dropping like a rock, but prices for these particular games seem to be a bit more volatile, and prices tend to shift a little every time there is a new release that stirs up excitement. Likely because these are usually the games that end up on the chopping block more often than classic titles in order to pay for the latest new game release.

LOL. hell no. Come Jan the DOW going to be way over 30k

I click these threads just knowing you will update us with that historic list.

Yeah but that's before pre GnR. JJP has ruined the industry. GnR will be going for $20000 and everything else impossible to give away. It's not a bubble burst but a whole new bubble - GnR bubble!

Plenty of people still asking high prices. 13k POTC standard edition that is getting plastered all over fb today.

But, since a lot of people are selling off to get Avengers and GNR the market is going to be soft at least for upper end titles. Lower end titles don't seem to be seeing the massive sell off so this doesn't seem across the door. This will subside in a few months, this isn't the first time this has happened.

Prices are just starting to be a bit more “normal” than a few months ago. But this pandemic spurred a huge growth in home collectors so we won’t see a “bubble” it’s just yet more demand outpacing supply

RCT is a fun shooter, and that’s why you kinda gotta spend some time on it to really understand why the rules and score tuning are so seriously disappointing

Just waiting but when I start seeing more home foreclosures on the listings than can pinball machines be far behind? Prices for homes here have went far up in the last few years.

This happens every time jersey Jack releases a new game.

The last housing crash in 2008 had little to no effect on the pinball market. Pinball seems to be recession proof.

They said that about gold too but it falls given time. I go with shelter, car and food everything else is a luxury. If a persons income remains the same things are ok but if loses a job gets behind on bills, etc I think his hobby and a pin or two will be trimmed. Time will tell as I still look for another downturn in homes as they cannot keep forever at the top.

No bubble burst. COVID overpricing is probably over.....GnR had some part of this as well. $10-$12K is a good chunk of change to free up for one game. If I went after a GnR LE, I'd be selling two games most likely, and wanting to sell quickly.

If you aren't jumping on a GnR, now's a good time to jump on some pretty fair deals out there.

It appears the demand for sys11's may be going down due to too many newer pins in the market, that may be permanent.

Isn't this like the 1 millionth thread on this?

I dunno, ask Levi. I think he was saying there might have been one or two.

We live in a unique bubble here. I like how Levi shows us this has been discussed once or twice before.

we have ebbs and flows but pinball is immortal in our lifetime. IMHO.

Pinball is immortal. I like that.

I think a little about wood rail collectors. Not fully my thing. But I know the rails that they get are still in high demand.

It's a nice bubble to reside in.

Where’s the Indys for less then $8k?

Hanging out with the 3k Next Generations.

10 million by Christmas.

Meh. Prices don't have to go up. I've sold quite a few games for much less than the "average" or whatever you want to call it, making good deals for other hobbyists. For whatever monetary loss those might have been, you can't put a price on the smiles and discussions during those sales. I guess that's why I get a little peeved at listings that are shooting for the stars (or aimed at the sucker).

That is what I liked about wood rails most collectors didn't like them and gravitated towards the electronic ones but now the prices on them are going up too. Could it be flippers? (Yes I know this has been discussed on another thread but not wood rail)

When there is a HUGE new release, People actually price their games to sell because they need the cash NOW. Perhaps a temporary dip, but prices will quickly bounce back. Nothing permanent. Similar to the housing market, more inventory means a buyers market right now. But the overall long term trend is still up.

I would have to say no way and this article pretty much substantiates it. People are buying them up the second they hit facebook and craigslist.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/coronavirus-leads-to-spike-in-pinball-popularity

Pinflation is driven by two factors:

1. Growing number of middle-aged folks with expendable funds discovering pinball as a hobby.
2. Regularily increasing NIB prices well above real inflation.

So long as Stern can keep increasing the prices for their games every year they will keep dragging the prices of all games upward with them. It's basically a bubble, and will continue until the market demand for every expensive toys is truly saturated. This will occur once those of us who knew pinball back in the day (came of age in the 70s, 80s, and early 90s) grow too old to move 250lbs boxes around, or too broke to pay for them.

I'm not completely discounting the Millennials interest in pinball here, but there numbers are too low to sustain the market on their own without a large amount of contraction, hence, the bubble pops.

Make no mistake though, once "peak-pinball" occurs, it's going to be a bloodbath, with way more games available than interest in buying and prices collapsing as a result. Maybe another 20 years, maybe 20 months, who knows.

s-l1600 (resized).jpg

Man, I hope you are right! If you are, I'll have to buy you a beer!

To be fair, there were a lot less pinball machines in homes in 2008.

When the economy takes a shit, and people start getting foreclosed on, most won't be able to take those machines with them.

When does this happen exactly?

I’m about to buy a TZ for 4700 but wondering if I should wait.

As a renter I don’t have to worry about foreclosure so I think I’m ready to pounce on deals.

Prices only go down when Im selling, when Im buying though.....

The way the winds a blowin', it could start in just a couple of weeks. But, like 2008 it took months for it to totally bottom out. It was a day after day selloff from hell. But, I'm still holding out hope that Americans aren't panicking yet.

Lack of leadership on a national level has proven folks can function fine without. Market will reflect that.

Yeah, well, it could get a lot fucking worse two weeks from now.