If you can get 20k for it, then take it and run!

I think 15k is more typical for a TBL from what I have seen.

What are there now, 100ish out there and 60 more built and sitting in a warehouse?

check pinside. A few that were asking 20k plus (including Kims which did not sell for months) and the ones that are archived as sold are all 15k or less in many cases

https://pinside.com/pinball/market/classifieds/archive?s=1&radius_latitude=43.116930141923994&radius_longitude=-89.32459831237793&keywords=&ad_machine_key=2205&ad_condition=0&machine_type=&ad_machine_manuf=&year_from=&year_to=&radius_distancekm=322&sort_by=ad_end_date&sort_order=DESC#results

actually after reviewing those sales, I would say 14k is fair in current market. TBL has been effectively dead for years now and I dont think the most recent news really changed anyones opinion on value or rarity of the game.

Pinside puts a value of 12.5k on it so I would say somewhere between 12.5 and 15k is the range.

just game specific parts but board set is all P-roc as I understand it.

What number is this Kim? I know there are some differences in the earlier ones compared to later ones.

ummm... I think you are one of those high end collectors?

From what I have seen over the years your collection is amazaballs and all high end stuff.

You are right that there is a whole separate market for the rare and uber rare stuff. I do think the market has spoken pretty clearly based on past sales that 12.5-15k is what you should expect to get.

If you want to compare to other rare stuff you have Alien and MG from recent history. MG has fewer made. Alien has more made.
TBL has the benefit of being P-roc which is a detriment to the others for perceived conductibility/reliability long term.

MG is just a show piece for the collectors of the uber rare and the drama story. I would put it in a different category from TBL and Alien (i.e. it is a crap game but more collectible due to very limited numbers and original sale price pushed the secondary higher)

I think reality is that both Alien and TBL are similar reliability long term and any experienced tech will have no problem keeping them running ling term.
TBL has been frozen in time codewise but Alien got polish. In both cases there are examples of games that are lemons and games that play fine (like yours)

I do think the currently unknown status of both (and 40 already built TBL in storage) will prevent some huge price spike. Either game could be made in great numbers (and a better build iteration) in the future.

Time will tell but given the recency of TBL build, I dont see any major jump coming. It will creep over time, but I dont think the price just jumped 5k due to the recent news. If we are honest, most of us assume they were dead years ago and no more would make it out the door.

It does not play very well and was just made recently. BBB only sells for 17k+ because of its age combined with rarity.

Give TBL 10 years and it could creep up.

TBL needs to change hands a few more times before more get locked down in hard core collector hands.

He had his add running for the past 3 months and no takers at 20k. That makes the top pretty clear I think. Nobody is paying 20k and he was not willing to sell for less. Others have been happy to sell for 12, 13, and 14k.

We have the outside edges defined at this point. 15k offers will for sure find you a TBL. 20k asking does not sell.