It's a tough call, as finding near pristine HUO versions of older games doesn't seem to happen every day. And it isn't like the number of them out in the wild is going up. If you don't buy it, you may never find another in that condition for any price. And you probably have a decent idea of what a 'regular' condition version is worth. I think this worth every bit of $2,500 to $3,000. If you love the game and can afford the price, you should go for it. What's the worst that will happen - you will not like it and sell if for a non-catastrophic loss?

Then there is this, which looks to be in nice cosmetic condition. And yes, I realize it was not working.

https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/for-sale-fireball-classic-16