Perfect example from RGP. Games for sale..MM, AFM and Getaway. Look at his picture and notice whats not for sale ; )

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I would like an AFM in my collection; it is on my desired pin list and has been for a long time. Same with MM. That said, everything I said remains fully valid. If I was trying to manipulate something I'd rank those machines, oh, I don't know, a 5.707 or something like that. The truth is, I call things as I see them, always do, and a technology shift is happening right now in the industry. Even though Stern didn't deliver on the promises of TF . . . just the simple fact that they made those amazing promises is a sign of the shift; they will deliver on them next time.

When color televisions first came out last century everyone said the same thing about the television set industry. How could it possibly develop further than full out color television they would say. Well....televisions have continued their evolution in many ways that people couldn't predict and the same will occur with pinball machines.

One of the things people say about why they dislike video modes in PB machines is because the video mode is such a low quality affair...they go from playing a kick butt PB machine to playing something that looks worse than a game on the original 80's gameboy - while I personally like video modes if they are well intigrated (like DW's) I can't argue with people that feel this way, as they are correct. LCDs are going to allow for a shockingly improved quality to video modes, for certain.

The above possible example in mind, you will note that I actually expressly said I wasn't specifically pointing out the LCD as THE game changer that was going to make all the 90's pins look old:

How significant will the LCD screen be? Hard to say. I find it hard to believe if a CFTBL was sitting next to WOZ on location that the CFTBL would attract as much attention, but who knows. The LCD's are not out yet but once both JJP and Stern bring their product to market we should be able to guage things better when we see how they implement them . . .

iceman and I were talking about this on another thread last week . . . patience is hard to have in this world of instant gratification (which is what drove PB prices through the roof), but everyone should see that we are at the start of what looks like it is going to be an epic period for the pinball industry . . . and that epic period is going to revolve around the new, not the old, machines - though the old machines will benefit as well from the drive of new players to the market (which is why the prices have temporarily soared).

I think this is a very good point (that I did not consider earlier) and will be what allows the classic machines to have a "soft landing" when they devalue. Someone who has 13k into a fully restored AFM is not going to dump it fast for $8,500. This means people who have them and want to sell them to make room for a new machine (or whatever) will hold on to them because they just can't stomach the price decrease. This will mean fewer will go to market and will allow the prices to decline more gradually...but they will still decline and eventually settle at the lower figure.

Anyway, good thoughts Whysnow . . . I enjoy debating, if you couldn't tell, and always like hearing contrary opinions as I learn from them. I could tell on the thread last week about ways to improve the rankings and make them more reliable that you put a great deal of thought into your posts, I thought all of your improvement recommendations should be adopted.

I don't really see there being much change coming in pinball. At least nothing that is really revolutionary and will change things or dramatically shift the collective perspective to where we all start thinking of LCD compared to DMD in a similar way that many see DMD compared to EM currently.

LCD screens soon to become the new normal.
JJP being new competition to Stern.
Some botique pins by small companies (BHZA, Predator, etc..).

Are these the rapid changes in the next 2 years?

While I see these as all being good things for pinball I do not see them as anything revolutionary. Maybe the competition that is a result of these thing will lead to the next era (I hope it does), but these things that are the predictable future of pinball in the next 2 years do not scream fast paced change to me. These will still just be fun games involving electrical mechanical beauty with a few fun toys/ bling to make them look purdy. JMHO of course.

This post sums up in one paragraph what I tried to do with my novel post earlier . . . great post and mirrors my experience. After playing Tron, seeing the promises that were simply made (not kept, but made) for Transformers, hearing what respected posters like Jim are saying about AC/DC, seeing the public information about BHZA, the buzz about the expected quality of WOZ . . . I just was no longer willing to shove out big bucks for a PB from last century.

I suspect more and more people will begin to see the light....we are ahead of the curve....and I do think the LCD is a major game changer, JJP knows it too, look at the slot machines in Vegas....

Not much but enough. And its not just the LCD. Its going to be the lighting, LCD, Soundtracks, play,code, updateablity, internet connections and more. You wont see the one big moment but already a TRON next to MM makes the differnce very clear.

I don't know why so many comparisons are made to TV's technology and pinball. A better comparison is with classic cars. Muscle cars from the 60's aren't dropping in value because of electric cars or hybrids are they? They hold their value. A-list titles will settle in current price range and your choice will be a new Stern/JJP or a 90's A-list. It will simply be preference of new vs classic, but value will not drop.

I go to the ICE/ATE tradeshow in London every year and have for many years, for work (sadly, they moved the arcade portion of the show to a different event center, so the last day is not as fun as it once was when we could go bang on the arcade machines all day).

Anyway, you should see what WMS and Bally's are doing with slot machines that are just now coming to market (I saw them at the most recent show this past January). They have clear glass that when a jackpot is hit changes from clear glass to high definition video and graphic displays to wow and amaze the player . . . and it does one heck of a great job. Stunning technology.

I would guess, but very sadly did not get into line soon enough (so I missed out), that BHZA is going to have glass like this for its pinball glass . . . I think (and again, I do not know) that the LCD screen in the teaser is in fact NOT in the lower playfield as many suspect right now but is the actual glass itself . . . see through most of the time but capable of displaying video when useful. This will be EXPENSIVE to replace for air ball hit cracks . . . but it will be spectacular.

And the technology exists, and is in mass production, right now by none other than WMS and Bally's (they will never, under any circumstances, re-enter the pinball market; but the pinball market will copy their technology advances for certain....sooner or later, my bet is BHZA will do it...and if it doesn't another will).

When this new technology glass comes out, it will make invisiglass look like a relic from the past. "What, your glass doesn't display explosions? You have to hear the words jackpot to know you got one? Wow! I can't believe people use to be all into games like that." This probably sounds rather odd to people right now . . . but there are some major things coming down the pipeline and eventually MM, AFM, and MB will look old.

I think the Op wants to know current value, so I don't understand what all the future price speculation is about.

Great example though because when the generation that found these most collectible peaked they started selling at record prices. 90-100k plus. 5 years later and the same car sells for 25k.
Yes prices will stabilize but where?

So maybe we are still answering the OPS question in that some believe this is the time to sell and make that 12k. Some think that will hold and some think it will not. As mentioned above I dont see a buyer of a 12k pin selling it for less but I do se many folks who paid 2500-3500 being happy with 6-8k if thats the market. As I said, personally I wont spend 6 when I can get a new game for that. Some will but I already see pins sitting that 3-6 months ago would have sold in a day.

Yep; another thread I thought was interesting was the one about the pinball party at the cabin in Arizona a couple weeks back. As I recall, two new games were brought (1) a black, maximum modded and completly rebuilt, AFM and (2) an AC/DC BIBLE. From the reports of those pinside members who attended that party, and there were many apparently, the BIBLE simply made the AFM look old . . . the AFM sat around mostly unplayed while the BIBLE was played constantly.

I was not at that party and still haven't gotten to play AC/DC, but from the sounds of it the AC/DC game just plain and simply looked and played better than the fully restored AFM...and this was the concensus of all who where there (at least the ones that came back here and reported).

With this era of competition between the manufacturers we all stand to win a great deal. But it is just not sound advice to tell someone, like the original poster, he should spend 12k on a MB game and that it would be a good "investment" for him to do so. See what I did there, it took me awhile, but I returned the thread back to the OP's topic!!!!!!

Anyone looking for a MB might want to check into this:

orangecounty.craigslist.org link

Not mine and don't know if it's real or not, but it looks pretty decent in the pics

I read the OP's posts as being about how much money he could make off flipping the machine once he got it from the original owner - he discusses this flip as being the reason he would buy the machine . . . so I believe all of this speculative discussion on pricing is right on topic as the point is: get ready for the prices on the 90's games to hit their ceiling and start a steady decline.

Granted, my discussion of the WMS/Bally's new glass (for their current slot machines) probably should be in a thread all its own (and that glass has the potential to take over this industry right when it comes out) . . . but that was just illustrative anyway . . . there is more than just the new glass and the LCD that are on the way in this industry that makes the thought of buying a game from the 90's as an investment, and not for fun, a poor decision.

The Back in Black was the game that got all the play that is for sure. The Black AFM held its own and looked very fresh sitting next to the BIB . BIB is a great game and my favorite right now .

Docs AFM is one of the best ,smoothest AFMs I have ever played ! A regular AFM would have looked like shit next to Docs BIBLE !

AC/DC is just a ton of fun and I would choose it over AFM because I have played AFM to death and beat it many times. AFM is a much easier game than AC/DC ! In fact Mark Ruled the Universe on Docs AFM Saturday , Game got beat in under 50 plays ! You won't do that with a AC/DC !

Jim

I know you are mostly kidding, but I'm not trying to tell myself anything. I'm really looking forward to WoZ. It looks like it has a lot to offer. But from an objective standpoint....well, there are a lot of similarities with TSPP. Not to mention the software is being done by the same person.

Haven't decided 100% whether I'm staying in on BHZA yet.

I was thinking the op was intending on buying and flipping within a few weeks time, if not sooner. If that's the case, i think it's foolish to think it's going to depreciate much, if at all.

Hey OP! How long are you planning on holding that game before you "flip" it?

Sweet! At least you can have some fun while you are losing...

Was this the same MB being sold on coinop doc? I notice it is not listed any more.

Coin op doc is here in MD. Sounds like this was out West

The retail price of new games also make older games rise in asking price...... If a new production game is worth $8500 then a used one must be worth $6500. I'm over simplifing, but you get the point.
Scott