I'm staying in, but I'm a little surprised that one third are not totally committed. (I also understand its a select sample size, and the poll changes) I guess I can understand. It would make sense if you're not a diehard to get on the list. Its not a big risk. So if it gets closer you can always bail out.
I think a decent amount of people on the wait list might get in. Especially if it's takes a lot longer than is currently thought. People have been patient so far, but that can change.