A few thoughts on the POG (Price of Gold):
- Usually at this time of year, the POG is beaten down into the summer lows, as per (below) this 40 and 15 year chart at http://www.321gold.com/charts/seasonal_gold.html
This price action rhymes with 'sell in May and go away' but makes for a nice bullish annual cup and handle formation.
- However this year, the POG has been unusually (and understandably) strong, as displayed in yesterday's exceptionally wide $54.10 trading range, from a low of $1824.20, to a high of $1878.30 and closing out near the high at $1872.20.
- This week's raging inflation numbers and stock market meltdown would normally require a concerted smackdown in the POG. Yesterday's smackdown attempt was unusual in that it totally failed.
- I note with interest that the usual reason given for a POG smackdown coinciding with a general stock market meltdown is "gold was sold to cover stock market margin calls."
Well, they can't say that after yesterdays action! Why?
- Covering margin calls from general stock market losses now seems to be at the expense of formerly frothy other sectors like cryptocurrencies, high tech, unicorn IPO's, SPACs and the like. Over the years a lot of money went into these sectors and now a lot of it is coming out through fear and margin calls. For example. the Ethereum long term chart has finally broken down into bear market territory (Bitcoin already had). As sector leaders, they signal a wider bear market in that sector and plenty of margin call and rotation selling cash is/will be available.
The PPT (Plunge Protection Team) will no doubt attempt to remedy this, or not, if that is the plan (but they can always regroup for Monday though, like in 1987!)
However, this year's and particularly Friday's POG action only underlines gold's strength.
(As always, not investment advice and dyodd)
seasonalgc2015 (resized).png