I met this financial writer, Avi Gilburt, tonight when he came in town for meetup for his subscribers. He is a market follower and follows metals also. He mentioned that during bad financial periods you want to own things that “hold value”. He explained that during the housing crisis stocks dropped 4 times lower than gold. He added that gold may not go up during the next down period but “could” hold value well during that time. It gave me good perspective on expectations of “holdings” during a down period - own items that hold value the best.

I think pinball machines could do “ok” value wise during a downturn. Why? Once you own them they provide entertainment at a low cost compared to say a second home, boat, or collector car. The people who own these machines now are more financially secure in general and they love their games. So pins will go down but will likely hold their value a lot better than say Apple stock, it that does not mean a pinball machine will not go down on value, it likely will.

And I was thinking, if folks here are accumulating gold as a hedge for an economic down period which will “probably” come in the next 2-3 years. I would follow the stock market. Avi Gilburt has free articles on Seeking Alpha that a very informative. He has been a bull and guided me through 2020, but is going to start preparing later next year for a possible “large” market pull back. He writes about the downturn sometimes. I would highly recommend him as one of the authors to follow as we go into 2023. He has interesting ideas. For example he recommended tonight that he will likely be taking his IRA accounts out of brokerages and transferring them by opening IRAs with certain banks which will be more stable than others - likely not the big banks. He said he is having one his analysts on his staff start to do research to find the most financially secure banks and will have a list next year for his members to reference. Might not be a bad idea.

I am a stock investor with one foot on the pedal but I have one foot on the brake and will hit it before the bad times come, so I am following metals.

Here is link to his free articles. And this is all FYI if you are interested. I wish you all well

https://seekingalpha.com/author/avi-gilburt#regular_articles

Example of a 2-3 year from now Bear article which he writes every now and then

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429877-sentiment-speaks-its-the-roaring-20s-again-begin-to-prepare-for-the-same-ending

Curious to see what happens to prices after the fed talks about interest rates.

Reddit group Wall Street Silver has a coordinated Silver Raid tomorrow. The group is 160k strong. Should be interesting.

It's a good time to buy now, even if price is up a bit.

I think you were right. Could drop a little and then go up again but looking reasonably good over next couple of months and into 2022 and good for a while from there, so not a bad time to add. And for price appreciation I still lean Silver over gold for the future. As I mentioned I don't hold actual metal but etf trusts an miners. It’s been a little bit of a ride but a month ago I posted about and GLD is up around 5% and SLV 11%. Minors I mentioned NEM up 8% and SILV up a huge 38% since then. I am holding a lot more SILV and riding it out into 2022 and likely 2023. I like a miner AG also.

Not to say how smart I am or brag but wanted to give you an update and also if miners do well Metals do well also, they kind of “rhyme” a little. Both could drop a bit before they go up. With pricing in metals or stocks pullbacks are good and actually healthy to get rid of the quick buck folks and will hopefully lead to a more steady rise as more longer term holders feel comfortable to join in. But pullbacks can test even the higher conviction holders.

I hope your holdings do well over the next year or two which is a view I am leaning towards as of now. But things can change and change quickly as we all know. Also the metals market does not give a flying crap what I think will happen or my plans for it. I fully know this and will adjust along the way.

Take care out there everyone

I think it is only a matter of time before a world currency. I am not sure where precious metals will land when it happens but they always prop up the new economies. So I am optimistic.

You mean manipulation by traders, institutions or Governments? All?

I have been researching about how things will go over the next decade to try to plan the best I can for an economic downturn which is very possible as of now and pushing towards probable. Currency and metals come up a lot in my research. Lyn Alden is good at explaining financial systems with how things work and how the past got us to where we are at today.

https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470161-qe-wealth-concentration-and-political-risk

Avi Gilburt I follow for what will could happen with the stock markets and he follows metals also. He just goes over set pattens of human behaviors, their waves over time and how they can change. He follows charts and doesn’t care about “news” and follows investor sentiment for the overall market and looks for opportunities. He is not a perma bull or bear. Here is a recent video of his and he goes over his expectations for the stock markets, miners and metals 22:30, whether gold is a hedge during market volatility 33:00, and answers other questions at the end. In general his view on metals is he will accumulate when they are oversold but may sell at market tops. He mentioned gold hitting $2200 in next year or so and he may sell some of his long positions.

I follow Avi because he is the one who explained out the path of the stock markets the best coming out of the 2020 downturn. I will follow him more now as he focuses on the timing of my exit since there is a fairly chance of a major market pullback coming I. The next few years. He feels we have a lot more upside before this happens though.

All FYI. Have a nice Thanksgiving

Not at all. To be honest I am just very interested how the financial markets may go through the end of the decade, what type of speed bumps we may hit along the way, and how assets stocks, bonds, real estate and yes metals will do before during and after an economic drop.

Metals interest me a lot and I like this guy and pay $100 a month for his service, with no referral discount by the way. Went to him for stocks but he follows metals and is an owner and follower BUT not a perma bull or bear. Over the last few months he got me interested in metals. He has 7500 members and 1000 of them are asset managers, 15 analysts on his team and has been doing what he has been doing for almost 20 years. He does give free guidance though and all his advice paid or free is just ONE way of gathering info so one can make better financial decisions. Good to take in a lot of views about metals. Once again no referral given on anything.

It’s hard to get information from someone who is very bullish or bearish not matter what. I would rather get info from someone who accumulates metals during certain years and is at least open to selling at certain tops. He also gives short term analysis of pricing waves which can be helpful. Really if metals raise up over next few years, which they have a higher chance of doing at this point, its likely going to be in part from folks buying who do not hold it for the same reason as you do. They will be out faster once things slow down. Like it or not the buy and holders will be along for the ups and downs which is true with any asset one owns or wants to own. Like he is a bull on stocks now, like he was coming out of Spring 2020, but warning of a bear market in the near feature and will start to plan an exit in late 2022. Stocks performance does not rhyme with metals, but sometimes they run together. For me it’s all part of learning and planning, keeping track of possibilities and probabilities of ups and down and with any asset including metals plan ahead before the masses join in or sell out. But always do what best for you.

With the whole background thing I am learning about the history of how we got to where we are at now. Why GOOG AAPL TSLA are so valuable and hard assets, commodities and metals a lot less. But it’s just views and you know a lot more about what has happened with metals over the years.

Following this thread because it interests me and interested in following and accumulating some metals over next few years. I just own some gold coins now and invest in miners and metal trusts as of now.

Hope I explained things ok. Don’t worry, I won’t post a lot though. And yeah my posts can be long. Sorry. : )

I see. Yes the article above “Wealth concentration and political risk” goes over how the US Fed 25 years ago decided that having a strong stock market was one of their jobs besides helping control inflation and keep employment at good levels. The Fed backs the large banks and they can manipulate the markets. This can work until it doesn’t and depositors may be more on the hook during the next drop compared to 2008 which is what that metals guy I follow has mentioned also. We will see. The more I look into things from the past the more I feel kind of blah about how things work.

Thread will be quiet but may pick up if metals make a run over the next year or two. Maybe then you won’t be “weird”.

Have a nice Thanksgiving

Probably the Guns Up America round you can break in half.

Guns-Up-America-Your-Right-to-Bear-Arms (resized).jpg

Yes, most likely silver quarters, dimes, and halves at first. A coin shop owner covers that well in this video, particularly at the 7:30 mark. I've seen a sign at a gas station someone shared on social media where a gallon of gas was $0.25, if you had a silver quarter. I can't find the photo now.

Found the sign! Silver bartering is real!
Gas_20_cents (resized).jpg

https://inflationdata.com/articles/2012/02/27/gasoline-20-cents-a-gallon/

https://selfreliancecentral.com/2016/02/22/5718/

https://dailyreckoning.com/why-gas-prices-are-actually-falling/

Its interesting how gold went up yesterday but silver remained low. The ratio almost hit 78 to 1. The banks can't manipulate silver much longer, look what happened just a couple weeks ago.

If anyone has a Godzilla or Stranger Things Premium and would rather have five 1oz American Gold Eagles, let me know.

Picked up this Harry Potter silver piece for my niece for Christmas!

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I had to change the battery in my car keys (2018 Toyota) and...

...there it is inside, nice beautiful shiny gold, doing its high tech thing, making critical electrical connections that don't corrode and fail. Now multiply this by billions if not trillions of essential electrical connections used around the world by the public, industry, internet and government agencies and it's easy to see where 10% (and growing) of annual gold production goes. That amounts to more than the #1 (Newmont) and #2 (Barrick) world gold producers, combined, can produce in a year (source, World Gold Council).

Gold is vital to the nations of the modernizing world but it is very unequally distributed, with more than 75% of reserves present in only twenty countries. Also, the top producing countries so far in 2021 are, in order, China, Australia, USA and Russia. Gold is very strategic, not just vaulted (swapped/stolen/depleted) away as a monetary cornerstone or secured in a jewelry box but stockpiled, coveted, protected and used as a strategic high tech asset.

Gold helps to make sure and start my car in -20 degree winter weather from fifty feet away, gets my car to the grocery store, opens the trunk remotely and locks the valuables inside!

So...as for "You can't eat gold,"...Well, seems to me I can't get food without it!

And, oh yeah..."It's a barbarous relic,"...indeed, hardly!

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Very interesting, I wonder how much gold that is? Does it compare to a Goldback (1/1000th of a Troy ounce)?

I don't know Crash...but multiply by an ever increasing number of these gadgets/cell phones/MIC stuff/cyber miners/self drivers/e-bikers and other electrical varmints hogging on the quality of gold electrical connectivity and you're talking a lot of tons!

Industrial use of gold in 2020 = 357 tons.

Gold recycling (resized).png

phil-lee, many cell phones and lap tops etc. are stored away in a drawer, warehoused or wiped and sold after upgrading, not taken to the recycling. Always a chance contained information will be needed again or...cough...inadvertently make its way into a courtroom.
Best if kept stacked and unhacked!

A friend of mine is big into gold and silver, buying mining stocks like Barrick instead of physical assets. We’ve had lots of discussions about investing and I’ve come to the conclusion that metals just aren’t what they used to be. Gold / silver used to be a traditional hedge against bear markets, but looking at the last 10 years it seems to me that dollar cost averaging into S&P 500 stocks regardless of market volatility is better. I suspect crypto is taking most younger investor’s interest as a hedge against inflation and the gold crowd is becoming the old crowd.

One trap I see my friend falling for is search engine algorithms feeding him information that only reinforces his confirmation biases. He wants his investments to do well, so he only reads articles that are reassuring to him. His example is a cautionary tale for me. When I’m ready to invest again, I’m steering away from traditional metals. I think the current state of play in this arena is unlikely to revert to traditional hedge strategies unless there’s heavy governmental regulation of crypto.

I agree. There is nothing going on with Russia, no different than 2 years ago.

Here I am! Ha. Yes possible, not probable, drop to as low as $16-17 Phil. The expectation is still the same of a high possibility of a late 2022 and 2023 run though. All based on the chart voodoo magic mumbo jumbo.

Hope you are doing well

If only you knew who you were speaking with…Pinny has impressed me greatly with his knowledge in a variety of investment fronts.

Your issue is not with me. I am just taking up for Pinny who you were going after. I know Pinny to be a well read and sophisticated investor. I think you are off base with your assessment of the questions that he is asking you, but that is between the two of you. But for what it is worth, Pinny is not a young'un.

I grew up relatively near where you are from and have kin all throughout southern VA and NC. It does not surprise me at all that you know folks that were taking advantage of these scams as I do as well. A lot of them were perpetuated via church as that is a big part of the culture down there. AMWAY, Cosmetics, Tupperware, Clothing; hell, there was even a tire scam going on. You are right, it was a lot of greed that got people into this, but they were led there by folks that had somewhat "legitimacy" from whom they were or who they are affiliated with. From my experience these people were not stupid, but were gullible, too trusting, and not sophisticated at all when it came to money. In a lot of cases, they are behind on things, don't have a lot of options, and are looking for ways to get ahead. Makes them turn off their better senses. You do see this behavior everywhere.

FWIW, EMP's do not work the way that you probably think. An EMP is a fairly localized event, with the range being roughly line of sight of the fireball of the explosion. If it explodes higher, it would get more distance of course. And with the banking and internet being decentralized, you would need a bunch to take out the networks, all coordinated. There is a lot of inaccurate information out of the web in particular on a lot of prepper and science fiction sites. When I worked in this space right out of college, we spent a lot of time looking into this.

It's all good, @phil-lee. Unlike you, I was and am only blessed with moderate intelligence. It took a lot of time and effort and luck, but I found a way to stumble through life. After I worked for a major defense contractor for a few years I found my true calling: that of a dastardly sales guy! I shit you not, that is my profession. I think that I am only fair to middling at what I do, but others don't and they pay me well, so I guess that is all that matters. Another true fact: I have had to take a bunch of personality tests throughout the years for jobs (buyer wants to know what they are buying, you know what I mean?) and I had more than one test say that I would be good as either a sales man or a religious leader. Evidently, they share a lot of the same skill sets. Who knew? As for the secrets of being a sales guy, we dress based upon the occasion of whom we are meeting (I wear everything from suits to jeans and a sports coat), presentation skills are not as important as one would think, but communication skills are even more importation. I have never been able to shake my Piedmont accent, but I have found out how to overcome. But the real key to sales is differentiation; how do you make similar thing seem different. You figure that out and you can sell anything.

Enough about that. I fully agree that nobody knows what way anything is going in the longterm. As a dumb (but pragmatic) investor, I think precious metals are a crap investment for returns and a so-so hedge against inflation, I think crypto is a crapshoot right now and will ultimately fail due to crypto 2.0 due to regulation (governments are going to figure out how to get their beaks wet), I think tech stocks and reopening plays are good for about 60-90 days before a rotation occurs (don't know what that rotation will be, but I will figure it out then), and I will personally be lightning up my investment exposure for a bit. Could happen, could not; I'm just a dumb redneck from the VA/NC line who grew up in a trailer park. But I will let my financial advisors and my Ouija board figure it out for me.

I am not mad or upset Phil. But realize I am not Making money off folks here, not claiming to be an expert on metals or anything. And you saying I am following and spreading views from folks who are in on some kind of scam like Amway or scammer like Madoff or saying they are talking about “guaranteed returns”? What the heck are you talking about??

I just follow and subscribe to folks because I don’t use an expert to manage my money. I feel a lot of pressure on me since I have always managed my own finances, have done well over the years and recently subscribed to folks who help guide me for peace of mind. 2020 I was lost after the downturn. I felt clueless. For the first time in my life I felt I needed help and luckily got in with a few good folks. I would have not done what I did without them and actually folks on Pinside helping also last year. Go figure? I know.

And keep in mind the charts guys I am referencing who you keep your ears closed to are kind of rhyming with what you are saying Phil. In future could be problems with currency and debt which could effect markets poorly and effect the US and world economies negatively after. But they are not guaranteeing anything. Is that kind of your view of what could happen? So whats the problem? I hope they are wrong by the way.

Is what I mentioned all “guaranteed” no. Should you listen to me or anyone here? Maybe. Should you do everything I say? No. Is it worth looking at views and seeing how they go and following a group of folks who make sense, aren’t know it all aholes, or not perma bulls or perma bears who are guaranteeing they will be right and will stick with their views until they go down with their ship and then from all these views form your own opinion on what works for you, your needs, risk tolerance and time frame, get a plan and go and adjust along the way? Sure.

I really have to take this seriously since I have a lot of money in. Will I always be totally correct short term on stocks and my little play on metals? No but you can be damn sure I will have a good shot at getting some more gains i they come and of avoiding the next big stock downturn and being safer during a possible economic downturn. I am 50 and have no need for a risky victory lap when a storm may be brewing. That being said I am not a bear now. No. And I won’t do the story about how I grew up middle class, barely, then middle class divorced family worse - ugh, so didn’t have a lot or about how I had parents who grew up really poor. Not a competition here. Lol. But yeah that was me.

I just know DBLM from the stock thread we followed. We owned PLTR for a while and kept in touch on it. I sold half at $29 and half at $25 after buying thousands of shares at $13. He did well on it also. I also told him when I sold all my 2020 big winners last February. I actually told everyone on the stock thread. It saved me alot of losses. Posting in public what you do is the best. You can look good or bad. Oh but me selling all those stocks in Feb is a good lesson on following folks. A guy I subscribed to Spring of 2020 Andres Cardenal got me in those stocks early, but he still had a long term view on them in 2021. I won 2020, had a bad feeling about them and thought they were way to hot and didn’t need to take a victory lap in 2021, so I then sold all my 2020 winners. Some went up after but most are down and waaaaay down. Like PINS sold my last 1000 shares at $81. Now? Yikes! After I sold I messaged Andres and said thanks for all his help but I am selling out and his reply was “I am very happy for you and it seems like you know what you want from playing this game”. And thinking back he always said “I give guidance but the ultimate decision is up to you.” So figure out how you want to play the game, follow who you want or no one and it’s up to you what you do in the end. Pretty much right I think?

So no student teacher stuff Phil. Or preacher or expert views with guaranteeing returns stuff from me. Just started to lightly invest in and follow metals and stumbled upon this thread. All general discussion. Predictions- who knows? But have to have a little plan at least for what we all want to do. If you noticed I said “voodoo magic” charts because some folks follow and some say they are BS but that’s ok. What is interesting is that they were along the lines of what you said “possible lower then $20 coming on Silver.” Yes You could very well be right is all they were saying and I was posting. Not stealing your thunder but realizing I read the same thing last week. Just another view backing your opinion on possibilities of Silver pricing.

Like voodoo I also mention myself as the old man yelling at the clouds with my downward stock view coming within next few years. It means I take it seriously but not too seriously and saying yeah I could be wrong. I will tell folks when I am in or out though. But folks need to not do what I do and do what is best for them.

Just some background. All good and no ill will here Phil. I hope you everyone here does well.

I just realized something interesting about nickels... check the 11:25 mark.

I stack copper…. J/K. I just wanted to break the tension.