Black Hole
Gottlieb, 1981
Dogies
Bally, 1968
Four Seasons
Gottlieb, 1968
Meteor
Stern Electronics, 1979
Show Boat
Gottlieb, 1961
Strikes and Spares
Bally, 1978Quoted from dung:Pinside is just a small pool that skews numbers heavily toward newer games. Lot of older collectors who don't use this and homeowners out there that will never list there game on here.
I think that's the point though. Pinside collections can only ever be conservative estimates. If even on pinside for a less desired game 50 people have it, there's probably way more still in existence.
Quoted from dung:Pinside is just a small pool that skews numbers heavily toward newer games. Lot of older collectors who don't use this and homeowners out there that will never list there game on here.
I mean, this is a 17 thousand post thread all about finding those non-pinside deals.
-Hans
Quoted from zacaj:I think that's the point though. Pinside collections can only ever be conservative estimates. If even on pinside for a less desired game 50 people have it, there's probably way more still in existence.
I opined about this very thing in another thread recently:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/question-about-the-rarity-of-rocky#post-5720542
Quoted from Daditude:I opined about this very thing in another thread recently:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/question-about-the-rarity-of-rocky#post-5720542
Most of what you say there is sound, until you get to "Pinballs from this era dwindle by approximately 30-60% every decade. ". That feels like a completely arbitrary estimate? I don't see any reason why that would be the case
Quoted from zacaj:Most of what you say there is sound, until you get to "Pinballs from this era dwindle by approximately 30-60% every decade. ". That feels like a completely arbitrary estimate? I don't see any reason why that would be the case
I have studied hundreds of games from the era. 30-60% holds true. It happens for a variety of reasons, however, as was mentioned previously.
There is a post below the one I made that pulls info on 30 year old pins that states only 5-10% remain...you will find that is right in line with the 30-60% declination per decade.
Nothing is finite, and (as I mentioned) there is no way to 100% "prove" the numbers, but those estimates hold for pins of that era.
You may "feel" that it is arbitrary, but I would implore you to go study production numbers, sales ads, owners, wanted ads, auctions, repair questions, reproduction playfield and backglass info, sold listings, repro ramp/target info, repair guides, etc for a minimum of 300 pins across various websites, social media forums, databases, and auction sites and then get back to me with your findings.
Quoted from stlscott:Non-working I agree I think $3k is way high. CounterForce & Star Race are worth maybe $500 being early 80's machines in non-working condition. Delta Queen is maybe worth $350 non-working since it's a 70's era machine. So IMO, I put the price tag at $1350 for all 3 due to age and non-working condition. I know from my restorations, that CF and SR will likely need 300-500 in parts and LEDs just to get them working again and will require many hours of cleaning, soldering, and adjusting and that's after you get the MPU or controller boards working again (or replaced).
Exactly what I was thinking and I offered him $1400. I explained that these were non working titles and it's just crickets at this point.
Sorry to keep being off topic but:
Quoted from Daditude:There is a post below the one I made that pulls info on 30 year old pins that states only 5-10% remain
I've seen that claim posted before, and I laughed at it then too... Random sampling suggests just the pinside owners count for games 30 years ago surpasses 5-10%, and as already noted, that's an extremely conservative number.
saying 30-60% are lost each decade also seems impractical. Maybe that number happens to match up now, but there's no way the losses stay consistent decade to decade. A majority of machines lost were most likely lost within the first few years as they were taken off route and junked, losses would have been way lower afterwards, and I'd bet they drop off even further as more games get into collectors' hands. Even then there's so many factors at play beyond just general attrition due to different events in the industry, etc.
Not to mention that 30-60, when compounded over a few decades results in a range of like 1-20% remaining. That's a giant margin of error, and so of course it lines up with the random 5-10% estimate. You could as easily state a flat rule "less than 20% of games survive 40 years" and be just as accurate. Do you really think that in 10 years half the games that are registered on pinside now will have been destroyed?
Quoted from zacaj:Sorry to keep being off topic but:
I've seen that claim posted before, and I laughed at it then too... Random sampling suggests just the pinside owners count for games 30 years ago surpasses 5-10%, and as already noted, that's an extremely conservative number.
saying 30-60% are lost each decade also seems impractical. Maybe that number happens to match up now, but there's no way the losses stay consistent decade to decade. A majority of machines lost were most likely lost within the first few years as they were taken off route and junked, losses would have been way lower afterwards, and I'd bet they drop off even further as more games get into collectors' hands. Even then there's so many factors at play beyond just general attrition due to different events in the industry, etc.
Not to mention that 30-60, when compounded over a few decades results in a range of like 1-20% remaining. That's a giant margin of error, and so of course it lines up with the random 5-10% estimate. You could as easily state a flat rule "less than 20% of games survive 40 years" and be just as accurate. Do you really think that in 10 years half the games that are registered on pinside now will have been destroyed?
You are missing the point and not reading what I actually wrote. I will PM you.
Quoted from zacaj:Sorry to keep being off topic but:
I've seen that claim posted before, and I laughed at it then too... Random sampling suggests just the pinside owners count for games 30 years ago surpasses 5-10%, and as already noted, that's an extremely conservative number.
saying 30-60% are lost each decade also seems impractical. Maybe that number happens to match up now, but there's no way the losses stay consistent decade to decade. A majority of machines lost were most likely lost within the first few years as they were taken off route and junked, losses would have been way lower afterwards, and I'd bet they drop off even further as more games get into collectors' hands. Even then there's so many factors at play beyond just general attrition due to different events in the industry, etc.
Not to mention that 30-60, when compounded over a few decades results in a range of like 1-20% remaining. That's a giant margin of error, and so of course it lines up with the random 5-10% estimate. You could as easily state a flat rule "less than 20% of games survive 40 years" and be just as accurate. Do you really think that in 10 years half the games that are registered on pinside now will have been destroyed?
You're assuming that every pinball machine and pinball collector that is active today will remain active and in good condition...think about it. People have fires, floods and other natural disasters. Pinball collectors die and machines get moved to a shed, basement, garage, barn or front porch when priorities change...some pinball machines quit working and are never fixed...some of those machines end up junked. Some machines that could be saved are parted out.
The point isn't a mathematical constant that can be relied upon to save lives, the point is that over time there is an "attrition variable" that could be helpful in determining the real number of examples out there. A big pin collector told me last month that it was about 50% population reduction per decade. Will you find games where it was worse? Yes. Will you find games where more examples exist than this "rule of thumb" suggests? Sure.
Coins. comics and cars have the same kind of thing--maybe they have some different variables in the assumptions about attrition or graded populations--any collectible that is "kept track of" is some manner or fashion can always have new examples found but the ones that were already in collector hands can and are lost. Is it precise? No. Can you count on fewer examples a decade from now? Yes. With certainty.
"The perfect is the enemy of the good or good enough."
Quoted from vdojaq:Exactly what I was thinking and I offered him $1400. I explained that these were non working titles and it's just crickets at this point.
I was going to offer half of what you offered. They’re B titles, and hard to trade/sell for good money.
Searching for a project pin preferably around the New England area, although the Northeast and East coast are fine too, depending on the final cost.
I'm fine with either EM or Solid State from the 1970's onward.
I'm not looking to spend very much as I'd like to gain repair experience and get better at working on machines to hopefully trade them up for a dream machine down the road! 
Quoted from bluespin:I was going to offer half of what you offered. They’re B titles, and hard to trade/sell for good money.
I was about ready to call vdojag a cheapskate----and then bluespin shows up.
May not be a reasonable price, but there might be some Knockout fans in here:
1974 Bally Knockout
Winter Park, FL
$1000
https://www.facebook.com/marketplace/item/304517240915180/
Quoted from cottonm4:I was about ready to call vdojag a cheapskate----and then bluespin shows up.
And damn proud of it buddy! I bought nine of my pins for $500 or less, and all in the last three years.
Not really a project, but a nice World Championship Soccer Pin in Kansas.
http://www.ottoauctioneering.com/upcomingauctions/july18th.html
Another Big Indian for sale here....
Got a cheap Gottlieb Bonanza I'd sell....located in Western Mass. Message me if interested.
Quoted from HydrogenHuman:Searching for a project pin preferably around the New England area, although the Northeast and East coast are fine too, depending on the final cost.
I'm fine with either EM or Solid State from the 1970's onward.
I'm not looking to spend very much as I'd like to gain repair experience and get better at working on machines to hopefully trade them up for a dream machine down the road!
Quoted from thedefog:$350 Popeye on Long Island
longisland.craigslist.org link
I saw that this morning.....i bet its sold
Quoted from hawkeyexx:I saw that this morning.....i bet its sold
such a crappy game, I wouldn't drive to get it if someone paid me $350.
Quoted from hawkeyexx:I saw that this morning.....i bet its sold
I'd put dollars to donuts that Mike Hooker snagged it already.
Quoted from thedefog:such a crappy game, I wouldn't drive to get it if someone paid me $350.
I would so, so that I could shop it, and sell it to get a pin that I wanted with the profit. But yeah, that pin is really boring
That's way out near the tip. Too much hassle for me. I hate driving through that parking lot anyway.
Good enough deal if you're already out there.
Quoted from thedefog:$350 Popeye on Long Island
Quoted from RonSS:Anyone near Hempstead want to pick this up for me?
I was in Farmingdale yesterday. With a huge rental SUV as well. I could have picked both. Oh well.
I'm not going back. OMG, the traffic was horrible, lots of construction, had to weave through the Bronx for almost 2 hours.
I must be getting lazy in my old age.
Quoted from DropTarget:I was in Farmingdale yesterday. With a huge rental SUV as well. I could have picked both. Oh well.
I'm not going back. OMG, the traffic was horrible, lots of construction, had to weave through the Bronx for almost 2 hours.
I must be getting lazy in my old age.
No, just wiser!
I live north of NYC, I can't stand driving "downstate".
Quoted from HHaase:I'd put dollars to donuts that Mike Hooker snagged it already.
I'll take those donuts Hans. It was 350 until someone stepped on my deal. I was 1st to respond 5 mins after he posted and my 1st question was why so cheap? He explained the mpu had acid damage and no longer boots up. I told him he undervalued his pin and I would bring some more $ with me. He told me no that he had his fun with it and the wife asked him to clean out the whole garage so he just wanted to get rid of it. I told him I'd bring more cash with me and scheduled to meet him at 6 when he got off work. 15 mins later he called back and told me a collector named Joe in Commack told him he would be a fool to sell it for that price after he was told the game is sold. He than told him I can be there in 3 minutes with 1400. The seller told me he just didn't feel comfortable with him yet was now intrigued at how adamant he was about the price so he now wanted 1500. Thanks Joe
Quoted from Crispin:I'll take those donuts Hans. It was 350 until someone stepped on my deal. I was 1st to respond 5 mins after he posted and my 1st question was why so cheap? He explained the mpu had acid damage and no longer boots up. I told him he undervalued his pin and I would bring some more $ with me. He told me no that he had his fun with it and the wife asked him to clean out the whole garage so he just wanted to get rid of it. I told him I'd bring more cash with me and scheduled to meet him at 6 when he got off work. 15 mins later he called back and told me a collector named Joe in Commack told him he would be a fool to sell it for that price after he was told the game is sold. He than told him I can be there in 3 minutes with 1400. The seller told me he just didn't feel comfortable with him yet was now intrigued at how adamant he was about the price so he now wanted 1500. Thanks Joe
I don’t get involved in auctions like this either. If I’m the first one to contact the seller I offer asking price or a little more if it’s really underpriced. If the seller responds that they received a higher offer I pass on the pin. I used to participate in these types of auctions but I never won and all I did was drive the price up for the person who won the auction.
I hear you John but it was 10 minutes north of me on the island. At least the seller didn't just take the $ without calling back like in my friend Brendan's case. Brendan called the woman he made a deal with to go pick up his pin after work and this guy had already swooped in and snagged out from under him. If he knows he's not getting it he will run the price up.
Quoted from thedefog:$350 Popeye on Long Island
longisland.craigslist.org link
I called yesterday 40 minutes after it was listed & left my number. No response back. At least it was only a Popeye.
Who's this Joe in Commack guy? Sounds like a real piece of work.
Quoted from Crispin:If he knows he's not getting it he will run the price up
Sounds like the kinda guy that will die with a bunch of projects stacked in a shed. #hoarderswith$$$
Quoted from jibmums:I called yesterday 40 minutes after it was listed & left my number. No response back. At least it was only a Popeye.
Who's this Joe in Commack guy? Sounds like a real piece of work.
Joe in Commack? I wonder if that's the guy I bought my WhiteWater from.
-Hans
Quoted from alexmogil:$300 Gold Ball in Toledo.
toledo.craigslist.org link
Anyone know who would ship from Ohio to Mass for a reasonable price?
Quoted from HydrogenHuman:Anyone know who would ship from Ohio to Mass for a reasonable price?
You could try Fast Eddie. He moved my BK from NH to Ohio.
Not his normal route but it worked for him.
Quoted from HydrogenHuman:Anyone know who would ship from Ohio to Mass for a reasonable price?
Bob Cunningham will do it on the cheap. But it could be a month or more before you see the machine depending on his route.
Quoted from Ritewing:Not really a project, but a nice World Championship Soccer Pin in Kansas.
http://www.ottoauctioneering.com/upcomingauctions/july18th.html
World Cup 1994 actually. MUCH better game.
Quoted from Murphdom:Bob Cunningham will do it on the cheap. But it could be a month or more before you see the machine depending on his route.
A month or more is being generous.
Quoted from HydrogenHuman:Anyone know who would ship from Ohio to Mass for a reasonable price?
Define "reasonable".
Quoted from John_In_WI:Define "reasonable".
Purely depends on the pin price. If a got a project pin for free or $100, I'd be fine paying a couple hundred to ship.
I know Bob's average is around $350 for long routes.
Quoted from Crispin:I'll take those donuts Hans. It was 350 until someone stepped on my deal. I was 1st to respond 5 mins after he posted and my 1st question was why so cheap? He explained the mpu had acid damage and no longer boots up. I told him he undervalued his pin and I would bring some more $ with me. He told me no that he had his fun with it and the wife asked him to clean out the whole garage so he just wanted to get rid of it. I told him I'd bring more cash with me and scheduled to meet him at 6 when he got off work. 15 mins later he called back and told me a collector named Joe in Commack told him he would be a fool to sell it for that price after he was told the game is sold. He than told him I can be there in 3 minutes with 1400. The seller told me he just didn't feel comfortable with him yet was now intrigued at how adamant he was about the price so he now wanted 1500. Thanks Joe
I just don't understand this. Just because you're not caller "1" why ruin it for the lucky guy that is. We all watch different outlets hopping for a good deal, sometimes a great one and when it comes its awkward when you arrive to pickup the machine and some other pinball collector has spewed his opinion on the seller. If I am not the first caller I just give the seller my name and number and ask if the buyer does not show to give me a call. Call it a day and maybe I'll be lucky on the next one!
Airport
Gottlieb em
$250
Cherry Hill, NJ
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1495208617395027?view=permalink&id=2617156968533514
Astro
Gottlieb em
$500
Sackets Harbor NY
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1495208617395027?view=permalink&id=2617156968533514
Me: Rough playfield and cabinet. Major project for someone.
looking for a project Bally Playboy. Can be missing backglass and have the playfield trashed. Needs to have sturdy cabinet, all the boards, and displays, and transformer inside. Playfield can be missing parts.
Quoted from Mikespinball:I just don't understand this. Just because you're not caller "1" why ruin it for the lucky guy that is. We all watch different outlets hopping for a good deal, sometimes a great one and when it comes its awkward when you arrive to pickup the machine and some other pinball collector has spewed his opinion on the seller. If I am not the first caller I just give the seller my name and number and ask if the buyer does not show to give me a call. Call it a day and maybe I'll be lucky on the next one!
Exactly!
Quoted from Mikespinball:I just don't understand this. Just because you're not caller "1" why ruin it for the lucky guy that is. We all watch different outlets hopping for a good deal, sometimes a great one and when it comes its awkward when you arrive to pickup the machine and some other pinball collector has spewed his opinion on the seller. If I am not the first caller I just give the seller my name and number and ask if the buyer does not show to give me a call. Call it a day and maybe I'll be lucky on the next one!
Yep Mike that's the class move.
Quoted from Mikespinball:I just don't understand this. Just because you're not caller "1" why ruin it for the lucky guy that is. We all watch different outlets hopping for a good deal, sometimes a great one and when it comes its awkward when you arrive to pickup the machine and some other pinball collector has spewed his opinion on the seller. If I am not the first caller I just give the seller my name and number and ask if the buyer does not show to give me a call. Call it a day and maybe I'll be lucky on the next one!
Looks to me you did not read what Chrispin wrote. He was the 1st caller. And made a deal for more money that the seller was asking. The seller said SOLD. And then the seller turned it into an auction. The seller did not give Chrispin the chance to even match the $1400.00. Do I hear $1500.00? I got 15, now 16, now 16, and 17, now 17, and now 18. ....
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Rochester, NY
Ottawa, ON