IMO

Average price is for average shape 100% working condition.

I think that price is pretty high.

That said there are things that can make it worth a little more.

Not ES but in general. Condition first and foremost if it is like new or HUO expect to pay more for it. If it is loaded with good working mods not always but most of the time more money. Same is true for LED lighting, Toppers etc..

Sometimes Samples or early production units of certain machines can fetch more.
ES sample has a sinking building "earthquake institute" This will fetch closer to 2K in good working order. In great shape maybe more.

If you like the game and it is in great shape I would try to get on it closer to 2K but that is just me.
If it is the sample the belief on prices very greatly.

Best of luck
Welcome to our community and have fun

And yet shadow is still stuck at 1100 something with the pricing does not seem up to date.
A couple NGGs on ebay went for around 3K. I am use to seeing it like 1800-2200. Just not recently.