(Topic ID: 279148)

Pinside average game values are not realistic in 2020


By d0n

3 months ago



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  • 141 posts
  • 57 Pinsiders participating
  • Latest reply 61 days ago by DocFinlay
  • Topic is favorited by 7 Pinsiders

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    #1 3 months ago

    This has probably been brought up before but... when a buyer of a game wants to find out its current value, many times they go to pinside and get a number from the "average value".

    Unfortunately, that average value number includes games sales from 5+ years ago... back when you could buy a TZ or a TAF for $4k. Pinside is using game sale prices from 5+ years ago to formulate a current value. That's crazy and a disservice to buyers and sellers.

    We all know pinflation is out of control lately and good working DMD pinball games are pretty hard to find for sale locally... for any amount.

    When someone lists a game for sale... say, a waterworld for a reasonable $2600 - $2800, a buyer sees pinsides average value from $1800-$2150 and thinks the $2800 price is way too much.

    Is there a better algorithm that pinside could use to give a more realistic valuation of pinball games now and going forward? I'd suggest maybe only using sales within the last 12 months?

    #2 3 months ago
    Quoted from d0n:

    Is there a better algorithm that pinside could use to give a more realistic valuation of pinball games now and going forward? I'd suggest maybe only using sales within the last 12 months?

    Which sales? Ebay prices which are awful, "reported" prices for sales on Pinside which are always wrong and never reported?

    10
    #3 3 months ago

    If someone tells me that my game is worth $1,500 less or whatever than I'm asking, then I tell them go find that machine for that price and ignore them. The game will sell at my price and I know it.

    #4 3 months ago
    Quoted from TheLaw:

    Which sales? Ebay prices which are awful, "reported" prices for sales on Pinside which are always wrong and never reported?

    Ebay sales shouldn't be included on pinside.

    All sales on pinside should be reported & public. If you want to sell you game on pinside and you actually do sell it to a pinsider, you would have to allow pinside to post the sale price. Not reporting sales prices does a disservice to the entire pinside community. The way pinside has it now, it's too easy to lie to save a few bucks on fees.

    "decided to keep"... yea right?! LOL

    #5 3 months ago
    Quoted from d0n:

    ...Not reporting sales prices does a disservice to the entire pinside community.

    Sure, but that won't happen to here we are.

    #6 3 months ago
    Quoted from d0n:

    Unfortunately, that average value number includes games sales from 5+ years ago... back when you could buy a TZ or an AF for $4k. Pinside is using game sale prices from 5+ years ago to formulate a current value. That's crazy and a disservice to buyers and sellers.

    Games with more sales on Pinside tend to reflect a more accurate price range. For instance, TZ and TAF seem to be up to date.

    https://pinside.com/pinball/machine/twilight-zone

    pasted_image (resized).png

    https://pinside.com/pinball/machine/addams-family

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    Quoted from d0n:

    When someone lists a game for sale... say, a waterworld for a reasonable $2600 - $2800, a buyer sees pinsides average value from $1800-$2150 and thinks the $2800 price is way too much.

    https://pinside.com/pinball/machine/waterworld

    pasted_image (resized).png
    It doesn't look like there are too many recent sales for waterworld.
    https://pinside.com/pinball/market/classifieds/archive?s=1&ad_machine_key=797

    All the price estimates come from confirmed sales data.

    And keep in mind, those estimates and are just a starting point. Sellers are free to do additional research and put whatever price they want on a game, and buyers are free do to additional research before buying a game.

    A price estimate is not gospel. It's an estimate.

    #7 3 months ago
    Quoted from TheLaw:

    Sure, but that won't happen to here we are.

    It would happen if pinside got rid of the "not reporting price" option. That wouldn't be difficult.

    #8 3 months ago
    Quoted from d0n:

    when a buyer of a game wants to find out its current value, many times they go to pinside and get a number from the "average value".

    Unfortunately, that average value number includes games sales from 5+ years ago... back when you could buy a TZ or an AF for $4k. Pinside is using game sale prices from 5+ years ago to formulate a current value.

    There is no great tool for valuing pinball machines or any other relatively small volume item. Big data may eventually help but teasing out accurate information from the lies and omissions is currently an impossible task and may never be possible.

    Restricting to a specific date range, using the median value, and throwing out the outliers MIGHT help but obviously it's more work. Possibly asking in the feature request area would get robin thinking about it but would the new numbers be significantly better than the current numbers? I doubt it since condition varies so widely.

    #9 3 months ago
    Quoted from ForceFlow:

    All the price estimates come from confirmed sales data.

    Yes, confirmed sale from the last 5+ years. It says there were 25 sales of waterworld and the pinside value of it, based on those 25 sales (many from years ago) is 1850 to 2100. And this is just one game. They're all misvalued like this due to the pinside model of calculating its average game values.

    #10 3 months ago
    Quoted from d0n:

    Yes, confirmed sale from the last 5+ years. It says there were 25 sales of waterworld and the pinside value of it, based on those 25 sales (many from years ago) is 1850 to 2100. And this is just one game. They're all misvalued like this due to the pinside model of calculating its average game values.

    Keep in mind that estimates include games in various states and conditions. Not just fully restored plug & play examples.

    #11 3 months ago

    Slightly off topic, but is there any way to view sold listings and what they sold for for a specific game on Pinside? If there is I haven't been able to find it.

    #12 3 months ago

    As usual the OP misses the point.

    These “pinside values” are not there to actually give you lockdown accurate information, they exist to drive traffic to pinside and it works.

    Exact same thing as another “10 thread a year” subject, pinside pinball machine rankings.

    These are to drive traffic to pinside, and for novelty use.

    -2
    #13 3 months ago
    Quoted from ForceFlow:

    Keep in mind that estimates include games in various states and conditions. Not just fully restored plug & play examples.

    Right and there should be categories included in the past sale game prices for the games condition. Like... for parts only, not working but complete, players quality, 100% working/good clean condition, shopped/topside teardown, HUO 1 owner, HUO 2 owner, HUO 3 owner, NIB

    I don't feel like it would that hard to force sellers to pinpoint their each games condition during the listing procedure. And, force sales price to be public on all sales. Then, the past sales data could be more easily interpreted by people looking for an average value of a game they're looking to buy.

    45
    #14 3 months ago
    Quoted from d0n:

    The way pinside has it now, it's too easy to lie to save a few bucks on fees.
    "decided to keep"... yea right?!
    LOL

    Seems to be your method,
    46 unsold
    “Decided to keep “. Hmm

    13
    #15 3 months ago
    Quoted from moto_cat:

    Seems to be your method,
    46 unsold
    “Decided to keep “. Hmm

    Oh snap

    #16 3 months ago

    anything to keep the value of pinball machines down is a good thing. Not sure what you are complaining about.

    #17 3 months ago
    Quoted from moto_cat:

    Seems to be your method,
    46 unsold
    “Decided to keep “. Hmm

    I usually have to unlist my games due to the pinside peanut gallery price police. I have NEVER shirked a fee on a game I've actually sold through pinside. I've also donated to pinside for no reason. So, lets keep this on topic and not turn it into a personal witch hunt.

    #18 3 months ago
    Quoted from d0n:

    It would happen if pinside got rid of the "not reporting price" option. That wouldn't be difficult.

    I really wish that wasn't an option. The only thing worse about pinball price inflation is where people don't disclose what they sold for. I wonder if the estimated average includes all sold values even though they are not displayed in the classified when it is archived? That would be helpful to know.

    Bottom line is if you want something a bit close to current value... just look up the archives and take a look at asking price, if it sold, and if you are lucky...a reported value of sale.

    14
    #19 3 months ago
    Quoted from d0n:

    I usually have to unlist my games due to the pinside peanut gallery price police. I have NEVER shirked a fee on a game I've actually sold through pinside. I've also donated to pinside for no reason. So, lets keep this on topic and not turn it into a personal witch hunt.

    The point here though is that you are complaining they aren't using recent sales data, but you also aren't giving them any recent sales data. I understand if you didn't sell these machines on pinside, but how do you propose solving the problem of getting sales data if you yourself don't even sell games through pinside? Where should the data come from?

    -2
    #20 3 months ago
    Quoted from porkcarrot:

    The point here though is that you are complaining they aren't using recent sales data, but you also aren't giving them any recent sales data. I understand if you didn't sell these machines on pinside, but how do you propose solving the problem of getting sales data if you yourself don't even sell games through pinside? Where should the data come from?

    Honestly, it's really difficult to sell a game through pinside. Mostly due to the pinside average game values being so far off. Then, based on the incorrect average values... the price police trash the game, the asking price and the seller in a subsequent attached forum post that all potential buyers see, most buyers aren't local and want shipping but most sellers don't want to ship, sellers want cash on the glass not an electronic payment etc etc etc.

    But there are obviously LOTS and LOTS of sales on pinside each month. Those sales could be better categorized and data compiled & presented for members in a more useable way.

    12
    #21 3 months ago

    I like the idea of discussing this, but would really disagree that $2800 is reasonable for a frickin' Waterworld pin. Yeesh. I am one of those guys that uses the pinside value and see alot of folks listing way over and it bugs me.

    #22 3 months ago
    Quoted from mystman12:

    Slightly off topic, but is there any way to view sold listings and what they sold for for a specific game on Pinside? If there is I haven't been able to find it.

    Sort of but not really.
    You have to go to "archived listings" of a particular game and then scroll through each one to see if it sold and then if the sold price was made public by the seller. It's very convoluted.

    #23 3 months ago

    www.pinballprices.com lists the average sale price by year so you can what's going up, or down and by how much.

    #24 3 months ago
    Quoted from d0n:

    Honestly, it's really difficult to sell a game through pinside. Mostly due to the pinside average game values being so far off. Then, based on the incorrect average values... the price police trash the game, the asking price and the seller in a subsequent attached forum post that all potential buyers see, most buyers aren't local and want shipping but most sellers don't want to ship, sellers want cash on the glass not an electronic payment etc etc etc.
    But there are obviously LOTS and LOTS of sales on pinside each month. Those sales could be better categorized and data compiled & presented for members in a more useable way.

    As far as I know, you can still turn off the forum post feature for sale ads and avoid any price policing. I think a lot of pinsiders who have and buy games have a good idea of value if they are looking at a title to buy w/out relying on ave Pinside sale price.

    43
    #25 3 months ago

    If you are having problems selling a game here the reason is simple: your asking price is too high.

    Not pinside’s fault.

    #26 3 months ago
    Quoted from ForceFlow:

    Keep in mind that estimates include games in various states and conditions. Not just fully restored plug & play examples.

    This. A broken project game and a highly restored game go to the same price guide. The price guide is fundamentally flawed.

    It's only accurate for relatively recent games and the most in demand games.

    #27 3 months ago

    I actually think the pinside average is pretty good. You just like to try to sell your games for 50% than they are worth.

    #28 3 months ago
    Quoted from CrazyLevi:

    If you are having problems selling a game here the reason is simple: your asking price is too high.
    Not pinside’s fault.

    bingo

    #29 3 months ago
    Quoted from d0n:

    Mostly due to the pinside average game values being so far off. Then, based on the incorrect average values... the price police trash the game, the asking price and the seller in a subsequent attached forum post that all potential buyers see, most buyers aren't local and want shipping but most sellers don't want to ship, sellers want cash on the glass not an electronic payment etc etc etc.

    I'm pretty sure that's just correlation, not causation.

    -4
    #30 3 months ago
    Quoted from RC_like_the_cola:

    I like the idea of discussing this, but would really disagree that $2800 is reasonable for a frickin' Waterworld pin. Yeesh. I am one of those guys that uses the pinside value and see alot of folks listing way over and it bugs me.

    Right, you use it a lot and see people listing games for way over the pinside value... what's that tell you? The pinside values are wrong. They're using games sales from years and years ago to come up with a current value for a game. It's baffling.

    I just used waterworld as an example. I am quite sure I could list my waterworld for $3k locally on CL and end up selling it for $2600-$2800 in a couple days. If I listed it on pinside for $3k, I'd have to deal with the price police, the ensuing negative forum post where the price police trash my price, my game & myself .

    So yea, a waterworld ISN'T worth $2800 on pinside but in the real world it is. Find ANY DMD game that's fully LED'ed, working 100%, shopped and reliable for $2800. They just aren't out there. And if they are, they're gone in short order. Yes, even waterworld. LOL

    #31 3 months ago
    Quoted from TreyBo69:

    This. A broken project game and a highly restored game go to the same price guide. The price guide is fundamentally flawed.
    It's only accurate for relatively recent games and the most in demand games.

    Exactly. And how easy would it be to fix this? Fairly simple I'd guess.

    14
    #32 3 months ago
    Quoted from d0n:

    When someone lists a game for sale... say, a waterworld for a reasonable $2600 - $2800, a buyer sees pinsides average value from $1800-$2150 and thinks the $2800 price is way too much.

    Honestly, I dont know that a waterworld for $2600-$2800 is reasonable.

    -4
    #33 3 months ago
    Quoted from CrazyLevi:

    If you are having problems selling a game here the reason is simple: your asking price is too high.

    I totally agree... "your asking price is too high" according to pinsides faulty average value.

    #34 3 months ago

    You also have to factor in location. A Waterworld may be $2800 where you are, but is probably much less in bigger markets. Pinside includes everything. It has no mechanism for adjusting to your local market.

    Also, here are the "recent" sales ads for Waterworld that I see. One is $4000 for a "high level restoration". One is $2500, the rest are under $2000. This is the data. How do you propose we fix this?

    https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/for-sale-waterworld-9
    https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/for-sale-waterworld-8
    https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/for-sale-waterworld-7
    https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/for-sale-waterworld-6
    https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/for-sale-waterworld-5

    13
    #35 3 months ago
    Quoted from d0n:

    I totally agree... "your asking price is too high" according to pinsides faulty average value.

    That's not how it works. I've sold dozens of games on Pinside and I've never once looked at "Pinside's suggested value."

    You think a Waterworld is worth $2800. Clearly, you are clueless on what games are "worth", are having no luck selling your ridiculously overpriced games, and are taking it out on some dumb algorithm that nobody but the greenest noob takes seriously.

    People don't check that when they see a For Sale ad. They just see the For Sale ad and if it's $2800 for a waterworld they chuckle and move on.

    Everybody gets pissy when their games don't sell. Most adjust their asking price or declare in a huff they are "going to ebay!" or "taking it off the market!"

    Others whine about Pinside.

    Only one of the above stated options actually helps you sell your game - guess which one!

    #36 3 months ago

    Hell, I'm looking at sales posts on one of the larger Facebook sales groups and they are all low $2000 or less. Waterworld ain't worth $2800 to most people in most of the country. You may be able to find someone to pay that, but that doesn't reflect the value to most people in the market.

    #37 3 months ago
    Quoted from d0n:

    Exactly. And how easy would it be to fix this? Fairly simple I'd guess.

    No it would be impossible to fix because so many people over price their junk

    There just isn't going to be an accurate price guide. It all too highly dependent on condition and location. It is what it is.

    But again, I don't mess with those people. I price my games fairly for my area. If someone doesn't like it, then they move on. I've never had to lower my asking price. But I guess I'm not asking absurd enough prices to begin with.

    22
    #38 3 months ago
    Quoted from d0n:

    This has probably been brought up before but... when a buyer of a game wants to find out its current value, many times they go to pinside and get a number from the "average value".
    Unfortunately, that average value number includes games sales from 5+ years ago... back when you could buy a TZ or a TAF for $4k. Pinside is using game sale prices from 5+ years ago to formulate a current value. That's crazy and a disservice to buyers and sellers.
    We all know pinflation is out of control lately and good working DMD pinball games are pretty hard to find for sale locally... for any amount.
    When someone lists a game for sale... say, a waterworld for a reasonable $2600 - $2800, a buyer sees pinsides average value from $1800-$2150 and thinks the $2800 price is way too much.
    Is there a better algorithm that pinside could use to give a more realistic valuation of pinball games now and going forward? I'd suggest maybe only using sales within the last 12 months?

    Frankly, this post smells like someone who overprices their pins and wishes Pinside values would catch up to their opinion of value.

    $2600-$2800 for waterworld is way too much.

    I find the pinside average values are mostly fairly accurate. Price right and it moves.

    #39 3 months ago

    I don't whine about Pinside, or whine about pinball pricing on a certain game in a certain ad per se. What I whine about is not having the cash back when TZ was going for $1200 a pop!!! Who could have imagined that NIB prices would get this high?!? Or that the average price for a pinball machine in working condition has gone from $1500 to $3k within about the last 5 years. I remember when you could find player pins for $1K that now go for $4K depending on the title. I remember when reproduction playfields were a pipe dream, but now have fueled and driven a frenzied restoration push that has some prices of "restored" machines topping the CE/LE prices. And the collector market has gone freaking nutz... I sometimes wonder if all this "restoration" is not just pin shaming others to spend money on a machine that they are never going to recoup. Who (in their right mind) would pay big bucks to restore a Raven or Hollywood Heat, or Genesis? And after they did, who (in their right mind) would pay for a fully restored Genisis machine? (My appologies to Genisis owners everywhere)

    #40 3 months ago

    Some people just don’t understand, or care to understand, the condition variable. I agree with TreyBo69 above, if you know your machine is worth once price but someone else disagrees, great, they are free to purchase somewhere else at that price. If they can. And if they can, hooray on them.

    Also, some people truly don’t care about condition, which I get. I am not one of those people.

    #41 3 months ago
    Quoted from d0n:

    I usually have to unlist my games due to the pinside peanut gallery price police. I have NEVER shirked a fee on a game I've actually sold through pinside. I've also donated to pinside for no reason. So, lets keep this on topic and not turn it into a personal witch hunt.

    And yet you have the grey heart?

    You seem to have your own price guide that doesn’t come close to reality
    Based on some of your recent postings

    #42 3 months ago
    Quoted from CrazyLevi:

    As usual the OP misses the point.
    These “pinside values” are not there to actually give you lockdown accurate information, they exist to drive traffic to pinside and it works.
    Exact same thing as another “10 thread a year” subject, pinside pinball machine rankings.
    These are to drive traffic to pinside, and for novelty use.

    The "as usual" snipe was unwarranted.

    #43 3 months ago
    Quoted from Bublehead:

    I don't whine about Pinside, or whine about pinball pricing on a certain game in a certain ad per se. What I whine about is not having the cash back when TZ was going for $1200 a pop!!! Who could have imagined that NIB prices would get this high?!? Or that the average price for a pinball machine in working condition has gone from $1500 to $3k within about the last 5 years. I remember when you could find player pins for $1K that now go for $4K depending on the title. I remember when reproduction playfields were a pipe dream, but now have fueled and driven a frenzied restoration push that has some prices of "restored" machines topping the CE/LE prices. And the collector market has gone freaking nutz... I sometimes wonder if all this "restoration" is not just pin shaming others to spend money on a machine that they are never going to recoup. Who (in their right mind) would pay big bucks to restore a Raven or Hollywood Heat, or Genesis? And after they did, who (in their right mind) would pay for a fully restored Genisis machine? (My appologies to Genisis owners everywhere)

    That stings, man.

    #44 3 months ago

    Pricing a game really isn't that hard unless the seller has put a bunch of mods on the game. Most sellers want to see a return on those, but the reality is their lucky to see $.50 on the dollar. There are a few exceptions i.e. color dmd, maybe PDI glass, and a few rare mods that were made (WOZ witch and monkey)....I typically price my games based on whats recently sold the last 6 months + whatever I think is fair for the upgrades or give the seller the option to buy the game with some removed (i.e. color dmd). That being said I don't like to ship as you can eliminate a lot of drama if you can sell locally. That way the buyer can inspect, and play the game and theres no surprises....

    #46 3 months ago
    Quoted from pb456:

    That stings, man.

    Well, I see so many “less than desirable” titles jacked to $4k+ after the owner, usually a noob, finds out his uncle has a Genesis in the basement, buys it for $500, dumps a little into restoring it, Does a basic shop job, all LEDs, powder coated everything, new reproduction plastics, new targets, new playfield, new Translite/BG and then throw it up on CL for $5000... yeah, that’s doing us all a lot of favors for sure...

    #47 3 months ago
    Quoted from d0n:

    Ebay sales shouldn't be included on pinside.
    All sales on pinside should be reported & public. If you want to sell you game on pinside and you actually do sell it to a pinsider, you would have to allow pinside to post the sale price. Not reporting sales prices does a disservice to the entire pinside community. The way pinside has it now, it's too easy to lie to save a few bucks on fees.
    "decided to keep"... yea right?! LOL

    True in theory. Application is tricky. Keep it anonymous? Invites abuse. Keep it public, invites judgement. Short term, pita. Long term, yes, a huge boon for accurate pin prices. I suggest Robin look into a real world application as Pinside could be the hub of pinball reference pricing.

    #48 3 months ago

    Now maybe if it was Punchy the Clown... I could see it.

    #49 3 months ago
    Quoted from moto_cat:

    Seems to be your method,
    46 unsold
    “Decided to keep “. Hmm

    46 unsold

    13
    #50 3 months ago

    To be fair, he thinks Waterworld is a $2800 pin. So maybe he does have 46 unsold.

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