(Topic ID: 243801)

Pinsaturation poll- is it real?


By ATLpb

4 months ago



Topic Stats

  • 24 posts
  • 18 Pinsiders participating
  • Latest reply 4 months ago by underlord
  • Topic is favorited by 2 Pinsiders

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    Topic poll

    “Is Pinsaturation real?”

    • Yes- and it’s getting “worse” 67 votes
      59%
    • Yes- but the impact has plateau’d 2 votes
      2%
    • No- but it’s coming soon 16 votes
      14%
    • No 28 votes
      25%

    (113 votes)

    #1 4 months ago

    I have my own opinions and thoughts (yes- and it’s getting worse) about this personally as I’ve bought and sold a few dozen games over the 5 years I’ve been in the hobby, especially in the last 18 mos.

    I’ve noticed buying appetite has waned while supply and choice continues to grow. There’s so many great games out already. And high expectations and money reserved for future games (Wonka, Toy Story, Elwin #2, Danesi #2, Eddy ‘19-20, etc etc)

    The impact is certainly greater for vaults and remakes, as it should be, but I’m noticing a general trend that’s very different than when I got into hobby in 2014. Factory price increases aren’t helping. When I explain my passion to uninformed friends, coworkers, etc I don’t even bother to say “yeah but they mostly hold their value” anymore.

    I mean, when you buy a $6, 7, 8k+ machine these days (NIB, or used), how much is it really gonna be worth in another year when there is even more supply, and continued gradually satiated demand...

    I just bought a BKSORLE to operate for a few mos and then take home, knowing full well that my cost per play given depreciation is gonna be much much higher than just a couple years ago. It’s the last time I plan on spending more than ~$6,500 on a machine nib or used. The cost per play at that level is now too rich for me, whether operating or not.

    Wondering what others think.

    #2 4 months ago

    Not as bad as the snowmobiles I own. The cost per mile makes no sense. Plenty of other things we buy and that decrease in value.

    I play my games often and that's what I enjoy. Sold boat and quit golf so pinball keeps me happy and occupied which makes my wife happy as well.

    #3 4 months ago

    The problem is you're equating a hobby to "value". You are buying a machine already thinking about selling it,.....so you've kinda made buying a business decision and not a 'fun' decision.
    I'm trying to save too cash buy a Deadpool, because I like it, not because of 'what it'll be worth when I sell it".

    #4 4 months ago

    Not really thinking about selling when buying, just learned to accept the reality that it’s likely it will be sold for one reason or another.

    #5 4 months ago

    For recent model and higher end games, the saturation is real and it will hurt new game sales.

    One of the most crazy things about this hobby is that these things have held almost all of their value when we go to sell them. I don’t know of many luxury items that hold value like that. Supply is catching up with demand. This is changing somewhat and will cause many to think twice before a new in box purchase.

    Wait until Deeproot actually releases something. It will accelerate. The addressable market for NIB buyers simply isn’t that huge.

    But for older / more affordable (call it less than $3000) model games, they are NOT going down in value in my experience. I have sold over 30 games since being in this hobby and most of them are in this category.

    #6 4 months ago

    I assume you are asking if we agree that supply is increasing beyond demand. Yes, it probably is, but we consumers are reaping the benefits right now. I definitely remember the days 2-3 games per year, all from Stern.

    It will be sad indeed when if the likes of JJP, Spooky, CGC or American etc. close the doors.

    #7 4 months ago

    When all these booming businesses (barcades, arcades, etc...) go out of business, then you’ll see what saturation is.

    #9 4 months ago
    Quoted from guard:

    The problem is you're equating a hobby to "value". You are buying a machine already thinking about selling it,.....so you've kinda made buying a business decision and not a 'fun' decision.
    I'm trying to save too cash buy a Deadpool, because I like it, not because of 'what it'll be worth when I sell it".

    Well said ^^^

    do you buy for fun or for investment.....Pinball machines aren’t really commodities, just curious does anyone buy a pool table thinking about over saturation? How about buying an air hockey table, hot tub, sauna, lawn tractor, computer, iPhone, boat, new corvette thinking about saturation?

    Pins like many other “fun things” are substantial investments and certainly worth evaluating how deep into the machine you are, but resale value is completely unpredictable. Know one knows the value years from now.

    Curious how the “potential future value” of games influences your decision as a buyer? If you think you are going to lose money do you skip buying the title?

    #10 4 months ago

    This is the model in any successful hobby. Starts out as small, collection gets larger, items in collection get better and better. Top tier goals met. Then saturation point.

    Other hobbies begin. Rinse and repeat.

    Stern needs to up the game, literally and figuratively. JJP needs to down prices. If these goals are met hobby saturation can be delayed for years.

    #11 4 months ago

    Collecting pinballs costs money but more importantly - space. The only way to deal with that is for new space to come online. Most of that is done by new people, and the influx of new people continues to grow and I don't see that ending any time soon.

    Stern claims to be selling more pins per year than any time in their history, and you have multiple other companies out there producing pins. Those are going somewhere.

    #12 4 months ago

    The vast majority of pinball guys here are not JUST thinking about the commodity value of the machines they buy, they are RELYING on that value to be there in order to perpetuate the hobby and have the liquid funds easily recoupable to pay for real-life stuff. Unlike cars, snowmobiles, boats and other high dollar hobby items, pins are not really available through loans (unless you use your own credit card or HELOC or something). The hobby didn’t previously require a massive cost of entry it now does. Buying and flipping games for 500-2000 is a lot different than 5000-20000. If you aren’t thinking about long term value when you buy these things you are either wealthy enough not to care or you are lying to yourself

    #13 4 months ago

    Someone above said it best.....and they are right....pinball is very popular right now and prices are sky high because of the recent surge in opening barcades all over the country. Once that novelty wears off and those places change with the times to remain relevant in business the values of the pinball machines in the used market will come crashing back to reality. NIB pins right now are also helping to saturate the market....expect a few casualties there when the downturn starts too.

    #14 4 months ago

    I can honestly say that when I sell, buyers beat me up on price and it seems difficult to sell newer sterns and others for what I used to be able to sell them at. So when I'm buying, I'm definitely being more selective and looking for what I consider a good price instead of just jumping to get that title I want so bad (like a lot of people, I get excited and just want to get the pin once I have made the decision and have the money).

    And I don't know why this is, but when I'm selling, everyone wants to low ball me compared to what I'm seeing people sell games for elsewhere and/or on Pinside. When I'm buying, it seems like everyone wants more than market... it's frustrating. Not sure if it's just my area or what, but it makes me less inclined to buy/sell like I used to... I look at a pin that I am thinking about selling and hate the thought of the B.S. I'll go through trying to move it. Oh, and everyone wants free delivery (if I want to sell then I need to drive it 2 hours one way or something like that) or whatever.

    #15 4 months ago
    Quoted from Cobray:

    I can honestly say that when I sell, buyers beat me up on price and it seems difficult to sell newer sterns and others for what I used to be able to sell them at. So when I'm buying, I'm definitely being more selective and looking for what I consider a good price instead of just jumping to get that title I want so bad (like a lot of people, I get excited and just want to get the pin once I have made the decision and have the money).
    And I don't know why this is, but when I'm selling, everyone wants to low ball me compared to what I'm seeing people sell games for elsewhere and/or on Pinside. When I'm buying, it seems like everyone wants more than market... it's frustrating. Not sure if it's just my area or what, but it makes me less inclined to buy/sell like I used to... I look at a pin that I am thinking about selling and hate the thought of the B.S. I'll go through trying to move it. Oh, and everyone wants free delivery (if I want to sell then I need to drive it 2 hours one way or something like that) or whatever.

    I relate 100%, but it’s very surprising to read this given you’re in Philly.

    #16 4 months ago

    In China alone there's been a huge increase of pinball popularity. And to add perspective, if Stern produces 12,000 machines that's 12k to be sold world wide. If these pins were only sold in the US that would equate to 240 per state. Now let's add in the fact that operators generally purchase multiple of the same title.
    This world has and always will run on supply and demand. I'm waiting for the day a person can buy a kit that contains decals, trans light and assembled playfield. No factory assembly labor, less shipping cost, no cabinet and associated hardware cost. There's a butt ton of crap titles out there aching to be reborn as something else.

    #17 4 months ago

    I've definitely noticed a change. Used to be I could sell a pin in hours or days at most. Last few have been weeks and only after dropping price. I agree, best to stick to cheap pins that new people can afford

    #18 4 months ago
    Quoted from CLEllison:

    In China alone there's been a huge increase of pinball popularity. And to add perspective, if Stern produces 12,000 machines that's 12k to be sold world wide. If these pins were only sold in the US that would equate to 240 per state. Now let's add in the fact that operators generally purchase multiple of the same title.
    This world has and always will run on supply and demand. I'm waiting for the day a person can buy a kit that contains decals, trans light and assembled playfield. No factory assembly labor, less shipping cost, no cabinet and associated hardware cost. There's a butt ton of crap titles out there aching to be reborn as something else.

    Stern can make and sell in China, then good luck to them. Chinese will just take Sterns ideas and build a China only factory and outsell stern in the end. Just don’t bring that low grade crap back here; we’ve got enough QC issues as is.

    #19 4 months ago

    It would be very interesting to see some objective data here such as total number of newly produced pinball units per year for the past 20 years.

    Good discussion.
    I doubt the tally of annual new production units has increased over time; more likely the trend has been downward when grouped decade by decade at least?

    The sustainable solution would be to call more people into the hobby and honestly if prices need to come down to enable more families to gain access then that might be the best situation for long term health of the industry.

    Cost of maintenance and repair for these machines tends to increase over time. Symmetrically, I think we should expect a reasonable depreciation schedule. Very few are legitimate collector items.

    Keep striving to make the industry relevant to the young families out there. Parents need to play with their children and enjoy the experience together. Otherwise good luck competing with whatever Fortnites and VR immersive games are going to be commonplace for the next generation.

    This is my second post today and ever actually so I feel like I'm really nailing this couch expert thing.
    Cheers
    Cullen

    #20 4 months ago
    Quoted from CullenT:

    It would be very interesting to see some objective data here such as total number of newly produced pinball units per year for the past 20 years.
    Good discussion.
    I doubt the tally of annual new production units has increased over time; more likely the trend has been downward when grouped decade by decade at least?
    The sustainable solution would be to call more people into the hobby and honestly if prices need to come down to enable more families to gain access then that might be the best situation for long term health of the industry.
    Cost of maintenance and repair for these machines tends to increase over time. Symmetrically, I think we should expect a reasonable depreciation schedule. Very few are legitimate collector items.
    Keep striving to make the industry relevant to the young families out there. Parents need to play with their children and enjoy the experience together. Otherwise good luck competing with whatever Fortnites and VR immersive games are going to be commonplace for the next generation.
    This is my second post today and ever actually so I feel like I'm really nailing this couch expert thing.
    Cheers
    Cullen

    Dang, I didn't even know you were around. Nice collection. Sometimes the happiest pinball people are those who post the least on here

    #21 4 months ago
    Quoted from underlord:

    Stern can make and sell in China, then good luck to them. Chinese will just take Sterns ideas and build a China only factory and outsell stern in the end. Just don’t bring that low grade crap back here; we’ve got enough QC issues as is.

    #22 4 months ago
    Quoted from Chicoman:

    pinball machines in the used market will come crashing back to reality

    We are still waiting for that and something tells me we are going to be waiting for awhile.

    #23 4 months ago
    Quoted from CullenT:

    It would be very interesting to see some objective data here such as total number of newly produced pinball units per year for the past 20 years.
    Good discussion.
    I doubt the tally of annual new production units has increased over time; more likely the trend has been downward when grouped decade by decade at least?
    The sustainable solution would be to call more people into the hobby and honestly if prices need to come down to enable more families to gain access then that might be the best situation for long term health of the industry.
    Cost of maintenance and repair for these machines tends to increase over time. Symmetrically, I think we should expect a reasonable depreciation schedule. Very few are legitimate collector items.
    Keep striving to make the industry relevant to the young families out there. Parents need to play with their children and enjoy the experience together. Otherwise good luck competing with whatever Fortnites and VR immersive games are going to be commonplace for the next generation.
    This is my second post today and ever actually so I feel like I'm really nailing this couch expert thing.
    Cheers
    Cullen

    Your insight is appreciated Cullen. Don’t quit on us now!

    #24 4 months ago

    extraballz, Exactly.

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