http://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-price-bubble-think-it-cant-happen-think-again

http://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-price-bubble-mm-as-an-example

http://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-price-bubblenotice-some-strange-things-here-in-the-north-east

http://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-price-bubble-will-pop

It's only a bubble if the prices are artificially inflated. Otherwise, it's just the prices.

$7,000 for the same game with different artwork and theme, and prices are rising? Doesn't seem to be a good economic reason for that. Peoples' money is going less and less far with every new Stern game.

I personally believe the prices are going up for multiple reasons. First, the people who played these games as kids now are old enough for hobby money, second, the government has been lowering interest rates which increases the amount of money out there, and third now that housing and college are insane, where should people put their money? Can't take it with you and without a clear replacement bubble, why not hobbies?

Blah, blah, blah, it's just supply/demand in action, for the most part.

Nice to see your trolling starts early in the morning. Same game with different artwork and theme. Geez. Not even worth discussing.

Here's how your "bubble" works:

1. A NIB AC/DC usually sells for $5,000
2. BillyBob posts his NIB AC/DC for $9,000
3. 600 Pinsiders laugh their asses off
4. 1 person buys it for $9,000
5. The new price for a NIB AC/DC is $9,000

Wow, I'm a troll just because I have an opinion? Many others, including Clay, have said the same thing. The games Stern makes kind of all feel the same, not much innovation. For example, how many times have we seen moving target banks and spinning disks in the center? If people were satisfied with this there wouldn't be so much buzz about other games being made. Open your eyes.

Exactly.
Terry.

This has to be post of the year........talk about hitting the nail on the head

And with 3 new Stern LE titles next yr, plus JJP plus Skitpinball plus JPOP, how many of us can keep buying NIB??

Oversupply has to kick in soon, especially as NIB prices are at all time high.

As long as there's greed, and people that don't know any better buying them, prices will increase. Ipso facto: bubble will never truly burst. Underspin pretty much summed it up.

I agree that every market has a tipping point, but the A-list games just keep going up. I think that pinball is cool again. I have seen more pinball machines in movies, commercials, and ads lately.

I also think that pinball machines are being embraced by a younger crowd. The Michigan Pinball Expo is a prime example of a show that has a majority of families and younger, college-aged people playing the game. Add the fact that machines are showing up at Comic-con and similar shows and they are getting a new audience.

One thing I can say about the bubble, is that it is really only affecting A and high B-list games. I do not see games like the Flintstones, Popeye, LAH, Corvette, etc. going through the roof like MM, AFM, CC, and LOTR. The same holds true for SS and EM games. The A-list titles that have always been scarce are going up while the others are staying put.

"I don't like any recent games" <-- this is an opinion.
"All stern games are the same game with different theme and artwork" <-- this is ridiculous and anyone making such a claim has got to be *trying* to just work people up.

Oversupply? Forgive me, but when did the powers that be start making all the old classics again?

I think he means when the current generation passes, there will be no one to give the games to.

The housing bubble burst because most people didn't really own much of their home. The idiotic banks where giving people huge sums of money with little to no money down. Since buyers had no "skin in the game", it was easy for many to simply walk away.

I know many pinball collectors and have bought/sold many machines myself. It's almost always a cash transaction. The percentage of pinball machines purchased on credit must be extremely low.

The only financial bubble that compares with the housing bubble is the student loan bubble.

I have no idea if pinball prices will continue to rise, however I don't see them falling dramatically either. Decades from now, when folks who grew up with pinball die off, there might be a soft patch. All depends on how many younger folks get hooked. Since there is such a limited supply, it won't take much to keep prices stable.

I figured he was saying that with at least 5 new titles hitting next year, the NIB supply will be high as we can't buy them all.

Yep, when everyone who grew up with these pins die no one will want them. Just like old cars, toys, comics, coins...oh wait.

where is that 'beating a dead horse" emoticon when you need it?

I agree that Stern's designs are basic and not very innovative. From my perspective, that doesn't imply they all play the same. I currently own 3 (LOTR, POTC, & AC/DC Premium) and they all have wildly different rule sets and game play/appeal. I like all of them.

I'm on the list to get a WOZ, and I don't expect to see "wild innovation" on it either. At this point, it looks like superior build quality and "fit and finish" are what's attracting many people (artwork, clear coated cabinet, great speakers/audio, many toys, etc.). I guess you can say the huge LCD is innovative, however I see this as more evolutionary (though I understand all the hard work Keith is putting into the software...programming for a large LCD is certainly a big change and a lot of work).

I still have a lot of room for new pins so demand for new games is not in jeopardy ; )

My AFM is FS for 12k so hope the bubble burst once its gone.

Beating a dead horse

We just went through one of the worst recessions in a long time, and pinball has been its strongest with sales going through the roof more so than any other time in history.

There is no bubble. There will be no bubble. There isn’t the supply for a bubble to exist. Please, sticky thing and let this be the LAST bubble thread ever...

Hi, my name is Bob and I want to own lots of pinballs but don't like the prices. Can we talk about bubbles….

Obama wins = Less Money for Pins

Prices will stall when Tax cuts expire. The 2% Social Security is going to expire Jan 1, 2013 for everyone.

If you make 50K a year that's 1K gone that may have bought a pin.

Where is the market on Pins going? I can only see underrated games like Demo Man and Judge Dredd etc.., hitting the 2K price point while the higher end A titles like MM fall back down to below the 10K mark.

Stern or JJP will not sell many more Pins at the $6500.00 price point next year. The market will simply not be there.

Yikes!

Not sure how you figure? Thats what they cost and thats what we will pay. More folks coming in and sales seem to be doing ok if not better. I plan on a couple per year.

this is probably the best argumented price bubble thread. It's not like housing (inflated value), it has to do with current supply/demand. If all the collectors (those that played pinball growing up) pass on, and there isn't enough new generation to demand it, guess what.. suddenly the supply exceeds demand, and MM's could realistically drop thousands in value.

Other things to add to inflation:
* people buying NIB only to resell and profit
* flippers selling crap for overinflated prices to newbies in the hobby, driving up prices on good quality pins even higher
* unavailability of replacement parts, either because nobody wants to go through the trouble of recreating them, or they can't get a license to sell legally, so those that have working pins with no damage suddenly have a "rare" part (see whitewater topper, see whitewater boulder, etc)

With all of that said, I can see a time when early solid state ends up looking/playing to MOST people like we view EM's today, not as interesting (not my viewpoint based on my collection), and those prices will either stabilize, or possibly drop.

What's funny was going back to the same thread started 1 year ago.

And prices have done nothing but go up since then (at least on all the A & B titles).

90's DMD's will continue to rise for the foreseeable.

New machines will do whatever the market decides - If it's a great pin in limited supply the price will rise. Pretty simple.

I think I've told you this story before, but I've been holding off buying pins for quite some time hoping the market would drop a bit. However, it just kept going up. I decided to get in now while I can still afford it, and bought 10 machines in a little under 3 months. I'm hoping the market does come down to more reasonable prices soon, but I somehow doubt it will happen for the next several years.

Please read the terms of service for pinside! Politics = NO

Why in the world did big duke thumbs down you?? Cmon!

Wow, I thumbs down somebody.( On accident.) Sorry. But even tho it doesn't make any sense I made a stand!

It was just odd. Had to ask.

I've said it before, but I'll repeat it: AFM had a huge spike in value in a very short amount of time and I personally attribute it to a single sale that was posted here at Pinside where an average condition AFM sold for $8100.00. I think the going rate before that, for similar condition, was in the low to mid $6k range. Since then, average/nice AFM's are worth $8k "all day long".

People who live across the country posting "Great price, wish you were closer" in every FS thread certainly doesn't help. How many of those people would actually follow through on that purchase if they lived across the street? How many are actually in a position to buy?

Let that bubble burst so i can fill my basement with games! I will take the loss (?) on my MM & AFM and go out and buy 20 more games to console myself.

Great Post wish you were closer..Sorry I couldn't resist.

I do agree though

You know thats a standard joke for it costs too much, right?

wrong. Obama will keep the tax breaks for everyone under $250K a year. Its the "other guys" who say they'll let all the tax cuts expire before making them only apply to the $250K+ income people. They've refused to negotiate on this. Blame the right people please.

_{Post edited by TheFamilyArcade : this is a post re: economics...not politics.}

I think what many seem to be missing is the demand side of the equation. The assumption is that demand will stay high and/or increase. It's historically high now but you can't assume it will stay that way.

I heard an interview with John Popadiuk where he said pinpall popularity goes in cycles. We're riding the wave now but inevitably this too will pass.

For the most part, I think the wave crested last summer. Not to say prices will be crashing but certainly stabilizing.

People have gone on and on about this supposed bubble burst for years as if there retirement fund were attached to it. If you love pinball than you would have to agree bring on the bust. We can all have an MM for 3 grand. Infact we should all start a rumor that playing pinball can give you leprosy. I keep seeing new bastards getting into the hobby and making more demand on the pins I want. Go away we have no pinball here!!

Pins like cactus, Medieval , Attack will come crashing down pretty soon.. The price are ridiculous right now when you think of all the other nice things in that price range and The brand new games you can get for 5-6k. Im putting good money on the fact they will drop and so will others, twilights are already coming back down.

Something similar happened the other month when Tatman sold his amazing looking Williams IJ for $6k. Within a week every IJ for sale suddenly jumped 1k-1.5k.

Horrible argument. Housing and Pinball are quite different. The supply for housing was seemingly endless, pinball supply is quite limited.

Might be, but I just got an MM, I know I bought on top of a massive bubble and don't care, I got it because I wanted it, it was extremely nice, and I don't plant to sell it.

I know many pinsiders are worried about a bubble bursting so I'll put an offer out as a community service. Any time you think the bubble's about to burst, I'll buy your games for $.50 on the dollar.

It may not sound like much but you'll escape the risk that they will only be worth $.10 on the dollar tomorrow, and your health will benefit from not carrying that worry.