(Topic ID: 4443)

Pinball price BUBBLE ... think it can't happen? THINK AGAIN!

By Hyperion

12 years ago


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  • 1,050 posts
  • 289 Pinsiders participating
  • Latest reply 51 days ago by JWilberdog
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    Topic poll

    “Do you think there is a Pinball Price Bubble?”

    • Yes 265 votes
      45%
    • No 202 votes
      35%
    • Maybe 83 votes
      14%
    • I don't care long as I make more $$$ 33 votes
      6%

    (583 votes)

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    #281 2 years ago
    Quoted from phil-lee:

    When cash gets short you reach for the easiest possession to unload.
    I have standing offers for most of my meager collection. Where I could make a call and they are here before dark.
    I'm sure there are Folks here with better machines who could liquidate just as quick(right now).
    The question is, will this continue?
    The speculation for a significant price drop hinges on the Avalanche Effect.
    A few crumbs are sold, then someone gets cold feet and lists similar games. A small bidding War, same Titles showing up for sale in the usual places.
    People already freak here when there are several of the same Title offered in Marketplace.
    "Does the game suck? What do they know I don't?"
    Personally, I am alarmed at the amount of Pinball machines that have been sold/ Auctioned/ offered for sale this Year.
    Forget the high prices for a moment.
    Fact is HUNDREDS of machines have moved in 2021.
    Large Museums and Barcades sold out.
    Large Collections liquidated.
    A lot of Newbies have their dream machine.
    How fast are they going to sell if the rent is due, the Baby is hungry?
    Most of the Older Collectors watch the direction of the Sales Wind closely.
    They have been banking on the Big Sale to fuel retirements.
    Disturbing downturns could (will) hasten their decision to call the Auctioneers.
    My opinion only, thats how I see it.

    I think you're onto something here.

    I'm one of those annoying newbies who got their first pin this year and I do plan on keeping it for life, but it's a LOT of money that I know I could recover very quickly in a pinch.

    If there is a downturn in the economy that is sustained you may see a lot of the people who are newer to the hobby selling to recoup money they thought they didn't need. A long time pin owner is probably less likely to be in that situation.

    1 week later
    #283 2 years ago
    Quoted from TechnicalSteam:

    The wisest advice I ever got was from a veteran in the pinball industry.
    Never think of Pinball machines as an investment. Only buy a game because you love it.
    That logic was hard to follow in 2021 and I think 2022 is going to be different.
    When times get tough - and o'boy they are about to get tougher for a large % of population.
    We've hit the Apex. When FOMO is the SELL something is wrong. Personally I've hit
    the peak. Will wait out the storm.
    Many of us are sitting on the sideline and have sold out at this time. I'm not adding
    to my collection any more just shuffling titles..

    Good advice for peace of mind but it sure turned out as bad advice return wise haha. Easy to say now though of course.

    I agree we are on the brink of an extended economic downturn though. A lot of people are going to need to sell their pins. I have a newer stern, that's several month's income for me personally. If it comes down to it I need food more than my pin. (that's why I have a good stockpile of food as well. I want to keep this pin forever!)

    #295 2 years ago
    Quoted from Grandnational007:

    Everybody want to feel better about all this price bubble hoopla? I've told this story a few times over the years...
    Back in 2001, I bought my first game, an Adams Family, from a large operator in my area, who offered it to me because it was "at the end of the line" for him (aka, it started out new in a few popular venues, after a couple years he moved it to a few bowling allies, then it made the rounds to a few dive bars and social clubs; finally finding its way to me at its last stop at a club I hung out before he would take it off route). He offered it to me for...wait for it...
    $800.
    Sure, it was banged up, filthy, and had been through hell, but it played nice how an Adams should. I had probably spent that much in quarters playing Adams over the years, so I said screw it, and grabbed it. I spent the next few months cutting my teeth on taking apart the mechs, cleaning everything, and getting it spiffed up. The operator was even kind enough to sell me some little bits and pieces I needed for it to be fully functional.
    Fast forward a year. Same operator offers me a Twilight Zone. Same deal, $800. Same condition as the Adams was originally, good bones, solid player's game. I sold the Adams for $900, which I "almost" felt guilty about, but figuring I put a few bucks and a ton of sweat equity into it, I didn't feel that bad. I was shocked somebody would pay that for a game at the time, honestly.
    I got the Twilight Zone and got it running (mostly) well and cleaned it up. It hung around in the "party room" of a house a couple buddies and myself rented in college. We probably played thousands of games on it, and it was kind of an interesting thing to show guests.
    Then graduation happened, and we had to move out. I wasn't moving the TZ again, so I threw it up on craigslist for...you guessed it, $900. It actually took a couple of days to sell. I figured, should I ever get the "itch" again to own a game at home, I could just buy another TZ, or whatever, for $900.
    Fast forward about a decade, and I was in a house I owned, and had a decent job. I was sitting on my couch having a beer, and thought to myself, "gee, I should buy another pinball machine". I googled "used twilight zone pinball machine" on my phone. Ooops. And this was 2012/13ish, so they were that much cheaper then, but I was still shocked at what they were going for. Story of my life, haha.

    I feel your pain. I was kind of obsessive as a kid and saved every box, manual and piece of memorabilia from every game or system I owned from NES all the way up to Xbox 360. Then when I graduated university and saw prices were higher than I expected I basically sold it all. A year later it was worth double, today probably close to 5 times what I sold it for.

    I guess I just wasn't paying attention but I really didn't see this insane explosion in nostalgia for this stuff coming. It got me too, I have no idea why I sold that stuff. I guess it's easy to say now that I have some money, but back then selling Earthbound for $80 felt awesome.

    #307 2 years ago
    Quoted from arcademojo:

    Let me ruffle some feathers here.
    Are we finally in a real pinball price bubble? Caused by surge of new people in the hobby and lack of supply to keep up with the new trend. Has pinball become the new hip thing? Are rising prices giving people a false seance of security that they won’t lose money and spending every penny they have to keep up with the Jones’s? I keep meeting more and more people that just got into the hobby within the last 2 or 3 years that already have 40 to 60 k in pins in just those few short years. Took me 22 long years to get to get to that point. Of course I only paid about half of what they are worth now. Will these crazy prices keep going up, will we see the crazy prices come down like they did in 2008/2009? Funny you can easily tell who the resellers are on here and who is just in it for fun just by they way they reply to these threads.

    I think an argument could be made that what you're describing is not a bubble but the natural consequence of rising demand and limited supply.

    I think the deciding factor is whether or not the quarantine situation is the main driver of that new demand or is this organic and just happening to coincide with it.

    If the quarantine is driving demand we might see the bubble deflate a bit when that eases (if that eases I should say). If it really is just people getting older and being able to afford things they couldn't before one could argue it's not a bubble but the new state of the market.

    The other enigmatic factor is inflation. We see the price of everything go up, the power of our dollar go down. It's hard to say how much of the price increase is a result of that as well.
    I have a feeling it's a mixture of all three factors and there is no great way to tell which is the bigger driver.
    There is also going to be some variability just based on machine too. It seems like there is a sweet spot for machines that are out of production but not that old so supply really is significantly lower than demand. I imagine it's because these machines are sought after more by newer players who don't appreciate the older machines like many in this hobby do. Every new player wants an Adam's family or a TZ.

    I got into this hobby as a result of the quarantine and the fact that I'm old enough to afford nice stuff now. After getting my first arcade machine I realized I enjoyed it a lot and started collecting. I kept seeing you crazy pinball guys with your dozen machines and got curious. Started playing and here I am as an owner.
    For me this hobby that will not end with the quarantine. I just never really realized owning my own arcade machines was a possibility until I was stuck at home all day searching for stuff to do with some extra cash on hand.
    Some people will go back to playing in arcades and bars after things ease up but many of us are here to stay and with so many cool new machines coming out I don't expect that to end.

    #312 2 years ago
    Quoted from CrazyLevi:

    What's it like seeing thread after thread where people make it clear they despise you and others like you, blame you and others like you for rising prices and "ruining the hobby", and continue to insist that you and others like you will lose interest when the next shiny thing comes along?
    Must be gettin' fuckin old!
    I don't know why so many people - many of whom were noobs just a few short years ago - keep insisting this gigantic new wave of noobs is just gonna get sick of pinball in two weeks causing all the prices to settle back down to "normal" levels. Just doesn't jibe with reality; the reality being that pinball fuckin' rules!

    I don't take it personally because I feel like those comments don't apply to me. I've been playing in arcades all my life and I started with a DDR machine, something I was totally obsessed with as a kid because I genuinely wanted to play it. No desire to flip machines or make money, I'm doing this because I enjoy it.

    Quoted from arcademojo:

    That would be true if it wasn't for the world wide product shortage we are going through caused by the pandemic. This isn't just another simple increase in demand. Demand has been picking up for years and there has never been a price increase in the secondary market to this scale before. Yes people have always flipped LE's for a marked up price on some games. However there has never been a time when people were flipping/reselling premiums and pro's while still in production over MSRP in this quantity before in the secondary market.

    You're probably right. This seems to be happening in a lot of places, not just pinballs/arcade machines. The car market is absolutely stupid right now.

    #315 2 years ago
    Quoted from arcademojo:

    Many things are crazy right now. We bought a leftover 2020 SUV at the beginning of the year for a good price. 6 months later the same dealership was offering us 8K more for it cash sale. At one point they only had 2 vehicles on their lot that weren't already sold. And this isn't a small dealership..

    Yep I've heard this from a few people who were offered cash to buy back their car they just bought. Crazy when cars are so notorious for depreciation they're used as the watermark by which most other goods are compared against.

    Quoted from the9gman:

    Hit the nail on the head. No matter how you look at it pinball machines are cool and when most people see them in your house they have the urge to play. When you I Look at some peoples collections and houses that are on this site, I sometimes think to myself that I chose the wrong line of work. But when I think again, I didn't because I thoroughly enjoyed what I did for a living and I don't think I would have wanted to go back and change that just for money and things. Plus after working in electronics for over 40 years, I really hate computer problems. So having a new machine is not that attractive to me. I like finding older machines to learn how they work and marvel at how they were designed. Price bubble or not, I could give a shit anymore. There are a lot of ways to enjoy the hobby without spending a lot of cash, the least expensive being playing on site.
    One thing I can guarantee though .....if you put up a price bubble thread..... Levi will come !

    This is a good point too. I've got a few arcade machines and people think they're cool but that's about it. With the pinball machine EVERYONE wants to try it and most people end up having a lot of fun. That word kinetic satisfaction from that Elwin video comes to my mind a lot. There is something special about interacting with a real ball using real physics that goes beyond the fun of a video game.

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