Certainly didn’t help matters.

I think at this point, every wpc game, especially the ones with unloved themes just a few years ago, have basically transcended the actual theme (looking at you shadow, congo, demo man, johnny mneumonic, bram stokers, etc), and are just now seen as 90’s nostalgia/cheesiness/generic themes unto themselves, that basically everyone now loves and wants.

Considering you can basically build a wpc game out of a catalog at this point, and every possible problem has been well documented, I don’t see the price of any of them ever going down. Even if some revolutionary new idea comes along in pinball relegating them to today’s version of a woodrail, people will still covet them because they are mostly all fun to play, with a few, small exceptions.

The only ones that haven’t massively increased in price compared to their brethren from a few years ago, are seemingly star trek, demo man (though it’s gone up), and judge dredd, and it’s likely because they can be a pain to keep running perfectly, and are on the tougher side to tune up/shop for most people. And they’re kind of on the easier side for most serious players.

At the end of the day, people love wpc games, and will pay dearly for them, regardless of the status of certain games amongst aficionados. I almost shit when I saw a Popeyes for sale locally for $5k, and it apparently sold because the ad was gone in a day.

Ive got a few WPC’s and demo man is among my favorites.

Agree with levi and don't really get this math... the old games have gone up in price as well. Unless they're going for new LEs, they should be able to get at least 3 newer pro level games for 5-6 older games in good shape. Or just trade out 2 old for one new to have something fresh? Or just wait out the supply-chain problems like the rest of us?

It sounds like they weren't into pinball quite as much as we are and saw dollar signs. Not many hobbies let you exit with more money than you entered. Too bad they'll learn that when they get bored with the next new thing.

If we keep on postin', the bubbles goin' to break
If we keep on postin', the bubbles goin' to break
When the bubble breaks, Levi's got nothin' to say

Mean old Levi taught me to weep and moan, Lord
Mean old Levi taught me to weep and moan
He's got what it takes to make a pinball man leave his hobby
Oh well, oh well, oh well

Don't it make you feel bad
When you're tryin' to find a cheap pin
You don't know which way to go?
If you're goin' down Texas
They got no pins for you
If you're going down to Chicago

A-ah, a-ah, a-ah

Cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't get you no pin
No, cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't get you no pin
When the bubble breaks, mama, you got to move, ooh

All last night Pinside spat on the Levi and moaned
All last night Pinside spat on the Levi and moaned
Thinkin' 'bout my pinballs and my happy home

Ah-oh

Ah, ah, ah, ah
Ah, ah, ah, ah
Goin'
I'm goin' to Chicago
Goin' to Chicago
Sorry, but I can't take you, ahhh
Prices goin' down, goin' down now
Prices goin' down, goin' down now
Prices goin' down, goin' down
Prices goin' down, goin' down
Prices goin' down, goin' down now
Prices goin' down, goin' down now
Prices goin' down, goin' down now
Prices goin' down, goin' down-down-down-down-down

Let me ruffle some feathers here.
Are we finally in a real pinball price bubble? Caused by surge of new people in the hobby and lack of supply to keep up with the new trend. Has pinball become the new hip thing? Are rising prices giving people a false seance of security that they won’t lose money and spending every penny they have to keep up with the Jones’s? I keep meeting more and more people that just got into the hobby within the last 2 or 3 years that already have 40 to 60 k in pins in just those few short years. Took me 22 long years to get to get to that point. Of course I only paid about half of what they are worth now. Will these crazy prices keep going up, will we see the crazy prices come down like they did in 2008/2009? Funny you can easily tell who the resellers are on here and who is just in it for fun just by they way they reply to these threads.

I think an argument could be made that what you're describing is not a bubble but the natural consequence of rising demand and limited supply.

I think the deciding factor is whether or not the quarantine situation is the main driver of that new demand or is this organic and just happening to coincide with it.

If the quarantine is driving demand we might see the bubble deflate a bit when that eases (if that eases I should say). If it really is just people getting older and being able to afford things they couldn't before one could argue it's not a bubble but the new state of the market.

The other enigmatic factor is inflation. We see the price of everything go up, the power of our dollar go down. It's hard to say how much of the price increase is a result of that as well.
I have a feeling it's a mixture of all three factors and there is no great way to tell which is the bigger driver.
There is also going to be some variability just based on machine too. It seems like there is a sweet spot for machines that are out of production but not that old so supply really is significantly lower than demand. I imagine it's because these machines are sought after more by newer players who don't appreciate the older machines like many in this hobby do. Every new player wants an Adam's family or a TZ.

I got into this hobby as a result of the quarantine and the fact that I'm old enough to afford nice stuff now. After getting my first arcade machine I realized I enjoyed it a lot and started collecting. I kept seeing you crazy pinball guys with your dozen machines and got curious. Started playing and here I am as an owner.
For me this hobby that will not end with the quarantine. I just never really realized owning my own arcade machines was a possibility until I was stuck at home all day searching for stuff to do with some extra cash on hand.
Some people will go back to playing in arcades and bars after things ease up but many of us are here to stay and with so many cool new machines coming out I don't expect that to end.

What's it like seeing thread after thread where people make it clear they despise you and others like you, blame you and others like you for rising prices and "ruining the hobby", and continue to insist that you and others like you will lose interest when the next shiny thing comes along?

Must be gettin' fuckin old!

I don't know why so many people - many of whom were noobs just a few short years ago - keep insisting this gigantic new wave of noobs is just gonna get sick of pinball in two weeks causing all the prices to settle back down to "normal" levels. Just doesn't jibe with reality; the reality being that pinball fuckin' rules!

I still don’t get the “I don’t have a ton of money, but owned pinball games I bought years ago at lower prices, but since prices went up on new games I wanted, but I can’t or don’t want to spend up for them, I sold all my games for more then I paid for them and quit pinball”. They made a decision to sell and get out and that’s there choice and it’s totally fine. BUT! Where the money from the pinball sales went to next is unknown. Perhaps they found something as enjoyable as pinball that is lower priced than it was years ago. Curious to hear what that is. Maybe they now enjoy boating, RV, PSA graded sports Cards or a classic car they bought with the pinball sale money, since pinball prices are insanely crazy now!! Juke boxes? No idea, but would love to hear.

I also don’t understand the “I haven’t bought NIB games in 5 years so that makes me smarter than all of you who did!” Well apparently not since over the last 5 years they missed out on a lot of great titles at a lot lower prices than now - ELWIN! Just because you owned 1, 5 or 20 games five years ago many others didn’t. It’s good for you if that was you for sure, but zoom out and realize others didn’t.

Also believe it or not there are new folks getting into pinball daily. They have no choice but to pay current prices and actually if you ask them they are fine with it. Telling them you got a IJ for $4000 or “loaded tank of a game” LOTR NIB for $3800 or how stupid prices and low quality games are now isn’t helpful. What are they going to do go back in time? They just shrug and go buy a $9000 Godzilla and enjoy it. On the other side - Can you imagine if someone got in 5 years ago and listened to these people’s “don’t buy!” advice? They would still be game less. Maybe next year those “make a stand” folks will be right and games will be more loaded, better quality at lower prices? Maybe the BW greats will go down in price? $3800 LOTR NIB and $4000 IJ’s - Maybe next year. If they didn’t buy that is fine, but I wouldn’t brag about it like they are smarter than most.

“Buy a game at a price you can afford that’s within your comfort zone, don’t get stuck mentally to prices in the past, buy what you enjoy, play and have fun and importantly adjust to what is going on around you along the way and if you like it buy another one later” is the advice I have always told friends throughout the years.

That would be true if it wasn't for the world wide product shortage we are going through caused by the pandemic. This isn't just another simple increase in demand. Demand has been picking up for years and there has never been a price increase in the secondary market to this scale before. Yes people have always flipped LE's for a marked up price on some games. However there has never been a time when people were flipping/reselling premiums and pro's while still in production over MSRP in this quantity before in the secondary market.

Aside from COVID and all the great point above, pinball is spreading into more homes because it is becoming more socially acceptable. When I was a kid (I'm 35), my parents admonished my siblings and I for playing too many video games because adults don't and it's childish... How does that hold up today?

I will also say that where it is acceptable and seen, it spreads. I had not played much pinball since childhood until 5 years ago when my pinhead boss put a pinball machine in the company office. Within 5 years, there are now 4 people in this relatively small company (100 employees) with home pinball machines and 15 machines between us. It is an exceptionally well paid small company but still.

Pinball is EASIER to do at home now than it ever was before. Got a credit dot on that Indiana Jones? In 2002 there are 0 spare parts and you are consulting a reference manual on electronic repair from the library. Now you can just buy an entire replacement MPU board for that same machine.

I think that the biggest potential change in pinball right now is happening with STERN and if they are successful I think pinball could absolutely moon, and that is internet connectivity and more importantly internet competition. People will absolutely eat up the ranking up, quests, high scores, and other features that are just starting to roll out on their games. Maybe not pinside, but I believe it is the best way to get hooks into the younger generations. This wouldn't have much effect on older games, but Spike2 games may be getting a new floor.

Also, praise to king Elwin for making games we want.

I don't take it personally because I feel like those comments don't apply to me. I've been playing in arcades all my life and I started with a DDR machine, something I was totally obsessed with as a kid because I genuinely wanted to play it. No desire to flip machines or make money, I'm doing this because I enjoy it.

You're probably right. This seems to be happening in a lot of places, not just pinballs/arcade machines. The car market is absolutely stupid right now.

Many things are crazy right now. We bought a leftover 2020 SUV at the beginning of the year for a good price. 6 months later the same dealership was offering us 8K more for it cash sale. At one point they only had 2 vehicles on their lot that weren't already sold. And this isn't a small dealership..

Hit the nail on the head. No matter how you look at it pinball machines are cool and when most people see them in your house they have the urge to play. When you I Look at some peoples collections and houses that are on this site, I sometimes think to myself that I chose the wrong line of work. But when I think again, I didn't because I thoroughly enjoyed what I did for a living and I don't think I would have wanted to go back and change that just for money and things. Plus after working in electronics for over 40 years, I really hate computer problems. So having a new machine is not that attractive to me. I like finding older machines to learn how they work and marvel at how they were designed. Price bubble or not, I could give a shit anymore. There are a lot of ways to enjoy the hobby without spending a lot of cash, the least expensive being playing on site.

One thing I can guarantee though .....if you put up a price bubble thread..... Levi will come !

Yep I've heard this from a few people who were offered cash to buy back their car they just bought. Crazy when cars are so notorious for depreciation they're used as the watermark by which most other goods are compared against.

This is a good point too. I've got a few arcade machines and people think they're cool but that's about it. With the pinball machine EVERYONE wants to try it and most people end up having a lot of fun. That word kinetic satisfaction from that Elwin video comes to my mind a lot. There is something special about interacting with a real ball using real physics that goes beyond the fun of a video game.

Oh how the turn tables.

When I was 17, my parents asked: "Do you expect to still listen to Ozzy when you are 50 years old?"

When I was 50, my parents: " I can't believe you've never seen that show, Chris you HAVE to watch it! Ozzy is just SO FUNNY!!" They were bigger OZZY fans than me, got me the whole Season 1 DVD for Xmas - and YES I was still going to Ozzy shows and Ozzfest.

So much this. Now CHILDREN are building amazing professional grade pins with custom boards, full art packages and deep rulesets. Price bubbles don't matter with SO many options. Can't afford Early Stern? Just BUILD ONE. Want a Pulp Fiction pin? JUST BUILD ONE. I love everything about it. Pk2k should have more titles? Yeah THAT GUY agrees.

Says it all RIGHT THERE.

I got in just as covid started. I bought an Atari Superman. 3 months later I bought a deadpool pro NIB. Then I bought a couple broken older pins and and fixed them. During this time I saw the prices rising a lot and noticed my small collection of the used pins had basically doubled. Also noticed everyone wanted DP and it just wasn’t my cup of tea, So I traded my DP for a Munsters LE. A couple months ago I sold every pin I had including the Munsters and bought a NIB LZ and NIB Mando premium. I saw the opportunity to basically flip my collection and get 1 NIB premium free from the profits. So I must really be the guy people hate. I am newb and I rode the wave of opportunity. Like you said pinball rules.

I’m restoring a DM, black nickel, Ron kruzman nos pf, the whole nine yards. Would never have considered this title to a high end restore 10 years ago but now it’ll pay for itself. JD is next. With Colordmd, Pinsound boards, etc, games have become so much more immersive than the 90’s when they were new.

How did this happen? Supply and Demand, massive Marketing efforts paying off, ignorance of masses, or Price police getting shit on.

I heard a funny take the other day on why prices have increased and it was just off the hook hilarious. Until I thought about it a minute.

A friend of mine is convinced that games really are not selling for 1000-3000 over the asking prices NIB. That it is a conspiracy set in motion by pinball media mafia.. (his words). That the prices are just "fake adds" that don't sell. That the perception of public is wrong and it is all a big conspiracy. He goes on and to say that since "Price Policing" on facebook has been frowned upon. People just relist the adds and hope someone bites. I told him that the "wait" for games is real but he just doesn't believe and has began selling his entire collection. He doesn't do pinside but he did originally jack the prices of his game to see what would happen. That didn't work out and now he's under MSRVP . I would imagine he will probably get bought out by reseller soon . Anyhow he's a bit disgruntled because of the great pinflation conspiracy hasn't turned out in his favor. Not going to reshare his adds but some good deals on a few newer sterns can be had.

I think he has a couple good points. I will say that here in Midwest its a bit harder to sell a game over MSRVP even NIB unless its grail material.

Post pix when it's done! IMHO, an underappreciated title that can still be found for a relatively decent price.

did machines level off in 2008, 2009? there wasn't any crazy increase, but you still had your "make a buck" guys that ran around,
snagged up the craigslist deals, just to windex them and flip them on the same site.

i've been waiting for this bubble to pop since the 2010s. i have a bad feeling i'll be waiting a long time with what people
pay for now: site unseen, game unplayed, and all that. limited rush powdercoat: black. wow. thanks. but the flipping
of limited titles will do nothing but cause st3rn/JJP/spooky to constantly increase the MSRP.

when dealers have to pay 20% over cost to buy a jurassic park in today's market, you know there's a bigger problem.

I don't know - I do know the early days of the internet and before reproduction art was available, pinballs were crazy cheap. I think someone posted on another thread a really good breakdown - it depends on the pinball being sold. If it's relatively rare, wanted by a lot of people, and popular, the prices are going to keep going up. If it's easy to find, and popular, prices are pretty level. If it's common and not very popular, you might find a bargain. That said, I've got a Centaur for sale that will test that theory.

But for new pins, I haven't a clue. It's not my market or interest.

Pinball is still becoming more and more popular. Manufacturers can't keep up with demand = High prices!

I noticed there are still deals to be had. Fortunately a number of pinheads are still listing at relatively sane prices. In general still up but they seem to be stabilizing a little.

Is this right? Are prices on “common but popular” machines really level (ie about the same as they were a year ago)? My impression is the price on anything pinball has been rising markedly, and that it’s not limited to a specific band of games.

As prices have continued to rise I have seen a few people trying to cash out. I saw someone on facebook yesterday trying to sell their entire collection (mostly premiums) for an even $100,000. Showed a buddy of mine and he mentioned bailing if he could get that much.

My best performing assets of 2022 have been my pinball machines. I'm almost tempted to load up my garage with a bunch of desirable titles and just sit on them a few years.

The bubble will eventually pop. For example, when the sun goes super nova. Pinballs will be worthless.

Market is definitely in a pullback but it will never burst. The bubble breathes in and out constantly. Right now the bubble is definitely shrinking as people are spooked by the state of the economy coupled with the yearly summer pin spending freeze. Prices are reducing as a result.

....unless the sun goes supernova, great point!

The price of turds will pop. People are paying way too much for games that suck. I think what will happen is the truly good games will remain high, tied to whatever MSRP of new games is.

Any evidence of this, or just trying to will it into existence?

I don't think I can speak to that. I haven't seen much of a price hike on that category.

Is this really a thing?

As far as seasonality and a summer dip in demand, that is one of the first things I asked when I joined the hobby. Here is the pre-COVID turning the world upside down question and answer on that one https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/is-pinball-pricing-seasonal .

If you don't want to read it, prices don't really dip in the summer, but things may sit a little longer.

I think a big reason for a pull back or slump right now is not necessarily the price of games but the cost of shipping. Had four or five people said they wanted to buy my game but then vanished after checking on shipping.

Follow the pinside market - it is evident

There is no aggregate tracker of prices, or of total sales that I know of, much less an filter specific aggregate of sales. Trend lines would be impossible to judge without it, because any small subset you might look at by archived sales is going to be too small a sample, plus the time to weed out those not sold, sold offline, etc.. Am I missing something?

There used to be. The pinball price guide. But even he stopped making the book because he couldn’t keep up with the fluctuation, and the ridiculousness prices have gotten to.

All of the older books are now obsolete. The Boston Pinball list is now severely outdated as well.

You're missing how closely I watch the market and buy/sell Its a subjective measure, but things like a NIB deadpool premium for 9450 not being sold is a solid example to start with compared to the $11500 they were going for several months ago.

And the reality is too many people are buying NIB these days, or NOB on the secondhand market. Only A and B titles are selling.

Most of the people that have older solid state that are unrestored, or EM’s have either left the hobby, or are just playing the games they have because they now can’t afford to get anything new.

Most people don’t want to sell the games they have, because they will never be willing to pay the price it will take to get one back later, or wouldn’t want to, assuming prices stay stupid.

I have been offered crazy stupid money for my restored and chromed out TAF, but I would never pay the prices pitched to me to buy one back.

Yeah, disagree. I don't care about new Sterns. I want to know about classic Stern, Bally and Gottliebs. Or 90s DMD games. Your sample is outside of what I'd care about. Not trying to be snarky, but you see how it's not useful information to anyone not buying specifically a deadpool?

And Deadpool doesn’t count because Stern just did another small run of them starting three or so weeks ago. So that explains why no one’s paying 9500 to 11,500 for a Prem.

Just buy a new one yourself directly from the factory that actually comes with a warranty.

Yup

I saw this topic on fire and started reading/skimming at post #1. I didn’t even realize how old this thread is until someone mentioned the possibility paying $1500 instead of $1000 for a Fish Tales. Folks have been saying a lot of similar things for quite a while, only the price levels have changed.

Well crap, NOW the bubble is popping?!
I sure picked the wrong week to get in line for Godzilla.

Well I wouldn’t say that. My buddy just got a premium, and it has to be one of the best layouts Stern has thrown out there in the last few years.

Very fun game to play, especially the building mech and that top orbit. Very satisfying to rail that five or six times in a row.

Anyone that bought a DP premium simply to flip would do well to hang onto it for a bit. No indication if/when another run will happen and plenty of people who missed this run are too pissed to pay a scalper….Combined with what you mentioned already (economy/gas)

I also think a lot of people got on the list for DP/GZ and JP a long time ago not expecting them to all be on the line within a few weeks of one another

You got 14 loops on my pro

Yours was the first GZ I played in a home environment, so it’ll always hold a special place in my heart. Lol

RE market is about to blow too…I’m dumping all my holdings. Just listed one today. Y’all should get out too…