KC is officially the edge -- Until you hit Denver, CO.. Then your back in the thick of things.

Pinside: the sky has been officially falling since the turn of the century!

First of all, I'm impressed you took the time to lookup and paste all of the thread references on the top (I've done this on occasion myself). Secondly, I'm always a little surprised (and agitated) how many different threads pop up on the same general topic. I'm on a constant mission to teach people how the Pinside search function works.

There really is not point in teaching. I've tried this in owners threads. There's a new newb every week asking the same damned question that's been discussed 8000 times, and I become the 'asshole' no matter how polite I try to educate.

The secondary market is different. The people that may lose money on NIB later are still paying more than anyone has ever paid for NIB. The prices aren’t going down any time soon. The rate at which they increase could decrease though.

I'm embarrassed to think of the number of those threads I have participated in. Especially back over on RGP.

I've been collecting now for 25 years. Or at least inactively collecting I would say, I haven't bought or sold much for the last 10 or so years. My favorite vice used to be the coin op auctions where I would normally come home with one or sometimes two machines. Back when those were held in Columbus and Indy and sometimes Kentucky. With $2000 in your pocket you could normally snag 1 or 2 nice machines.

I wonder how many collectors are like me? I basically have amassed a nice "dream" collection, at least what myself/everyone wanted 15 years ago. When the coin op auctions folded and prices started skyrocketing I just held onto what I have and counted myself lucky to have them. Now I would like to start collecting the newer machines but I can't bring myself to drop ~$8000 on a pinball machine (kudos to everyone that can, I'm not judging, it's just not for me). Certainly I could sell/trade my long term collection to pay for new games but then I like what I have and I know I could never get them back at today's prices. So I'm essentially stuck. Am I alone in this (admittedly not awful) situation?

I'm "like you" in that I started collecting cheap back in the day and have always had a large collection, which I've used to "trade up" many times.

I'm unlike you in that I've managed to breach the mental barrier of $5000, $6000, even $9000 when I thought a game was a good deal. I've accepted reality and increased my budget on games when appropriate...a good deal is a still a good deal and it's pretty clear that it's still pretty low risk to buy a $7,000 game when I'll be able to sell it for more, or worst case, get my money back, or trade up or down.

I guess I'm really not married to any game, beyond the AFM that I have no intention of selling. It's just kind of boring to keep the same games year after year.

It's either wheel and deal, or just pray for the imaginary "bubble burst" that will never come, when everybody ELSE in the hobby suddenly either goes broke and/or loses complete interest in pinball. Doing the math in my head, it just seems unlikely that's going to happen before I'm in an assisted living home, so may as well adapt and participate.

This is good advice which I've actually received from other collectors. And honestly I don't really have a problem with games costing more than they did 20 years ago at auction. Pinball is awesome and it always has been so they should be going up in value. Anything cool should. Heck, I have a new F-150 on order right now that is dangerously close in price to my first house. That is life.

Maybe I will test the waters by trading something before the end of year. Maybe it's like drugs, once I let the first one go the rest will go down/in/up easier?

Been collecting for almost 11 months and I’ve already participated in to many

Where it as a badge of honor my friend, and keep up the good fight!

Oops, I meant "wear".

Hmm...I wonder if you have a nice TAF?

Viper: Trade in the Episode 1 and the Fire! and grab one new Stern. I bet you play the Stern 10x more than either of those two. Any chance getting an EHOH in the basement?

Not alone for sure. Alot of people I know, myself included, have moved more into a sell a game to buy a game mentality. I didn't start collecting until about 2015, but even then you could find alot of DMD games for 2.5K and it was much easier to swallow just paying cash out of pocket. Now I'm looking at people asking and getting 5K for games like NGG and just can't pull the trigger with "real" money.

Lots of very successful smart guys on this site and thread.

I started a bubble thread a year ago

I believe what stops a bubble burst is “leverage”

Ask yourself how many guys are leveraged on their games? Not many is my guess mostly cash buyers.

Any good bubble burst requires leverage of some type, bank calling a note, broker demanding money, divorce (all us ar once getting divorced).

I just don’t see or can’t imagine where this hobby would suddenly get some type of leverage pressure.

So I’ve been busy buying. Just got my Elvira 40th anniversary edition today.

Space.

If games start dropping in price, some people might think "I don't want to get stuck with all these games if they're not worth as much" and then they sell and contribute to the crash.

Now, IMHO this scenario is unlikely anytime soon, as there appears to be an unending supply of people who want to own pinballs and will find any space they can to stash them in.

Agreed, I know people that have pins in almost every room of their home!

I learned Lloyds middle initial is R. Stands for ‘Rocket?’

Everything selling out would support this theory.

Ha, the states just west of us are also midwest. Missouri is damn near right in the center of the country.

Wow, one price bubble thread a month this year.
It has to pop any minute now!
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I read all of the previous responses to this thread. It's amazing how correct certain people were with their predictions 10 years or so ago. That is except for the bubble forecasters. It did pain me a bit reading about those that said they were in on Predator and RAZA.

There’s a X factor this time ,a global pandemic .I myself got in this hobby just before Covid .I know I’m in for good but what about the others that came after it started ? Will they go back to whatever they were spending $ on before they’re lives changed ?Funny thing is I purchased RR as my first .After a year I sold it for 1k more than I had in it .Just recently I seen one sold for 2.5k more than that .I’ve made a nice profit on the other two games Ive sold .Going through some history I’ve noticed those who buy new and sell fast (pros/prems) seem to lose but just a bit .Anyone who keeps a game for a few years or more will at the least break even .Keeping those same pins for a decade your guaranteed a profit (all this minus Tbirds and a handful of others).So what I’m getting at is it takes time for games to settle in they’re resting spots .Once there they become scarce .Scarce is where it’s at ,so buy a LZ now

Okay.. I'm going to go out there and predict a very mild bubble bursting in a few key areas of the market. By mild bubble burst I mean a 10% drop in the price of certain used pins. These pins are: Deadpool Premium, Jurassic Park Premium, Elvira Premium... most of the in demand late model Stern Premiums waiting on a rerun. There is more demand than supply on these which is keeping used examples above NIB prices. Once Stern Re-runs these games (supposedly in 2022) we will go back to them going back to NIB -10% in the secondary market. I don't care what the market is doing, but when I can buy a NIB for less than used I will buy NIB. This will happen again on certain select titles. Turtles and Hot Wheels are about the only pins available NIB in stock right now and I don't see either going for huge premiums.

And theme. Any theme that has broad appeal to more casual players, especially family friendly, also does well. Games like Munsters and TH that are not highly regarded by more serious players are doing amazingly well with so many new people entering the market. I don’t believe the bubble will burst, but wouldn’t be surprised if titles like these fell back into line, relatively, with their pre-pandemic place.

Wise words from 10 years ago.

The “THINK AGAIN” Tagline on this thread title cracks me up every time.

Personally, I've never bought a pinball as an investment. I don't care what happens to the value. However, IF the "bubble" were to burst, or even start to deflate, I still think older classic machines with finite numbers in existence will hold their value pretty well. The newer machines that are readily available would be the first to suffer price wise. I don't think that will happen anytime soon though.

I think you're onto something here.

I'm one of those annoying newbies who got their first pin this year and I do plan on keeping it for life, but it's a LOT of money that I know I could recover very quickly in a pinch.

If there is a downturn in the economy that is sustained you may see a lot of the people who are newer to the hobby selling to recoup money they thought they didn't need. A long time pin owner is probably less likely to be in that situation.

The wisest advice I ever got was from a veteran in the pinball industry.

Never think of Pinball machines as an investment. Only buy a game because you love it.

That logic was hard to follow in 2021 and I think 2022 is going to be different.

When times get tough - and o'boy they are about to get tougher for a large % of population.

We've hit the Apex. When FOMO is the SELL something is wrong. Personally I've hit
the peak. Will wait out the storm.

Many of us are sitting on the sideline and have sold out at this time. I'm not adding
to my collection any more just shuffling titles..

Good advice for peace of mind but it sure turned out as bad advice return wise haha. Easy to say now though of course.

I agree we are on the brink of an extended economic downturn though. A lot of people are going to need to sell their pins. I have a newer stern, that's several month's income for me personally. If it comes down to it I need food more than my pin. (that's why I have a good stockpile of food as well. I want to keep this pin forever!)

I'll eat ramen for every meal if it allows me to keep my Shadow!

Where are you buying MM for $1000? I bought my first one ~20 years ago for ~$4000. They were never $1000.

First, that's not what he said. He said other people told him that.
More importantly, he said that 10 years ago. A bit late to call him out now.

The prices of today aren’t the only thing that sucks.

I know about 10 people that have left the hobby since prices got stupid in the last two years, and two more of my friends decided to bow out and sell all their pins within the last month or so.

Both of them collected older SS games, and Bally/Williams titles for the most part. Games you could get for $1800 to $3k even a few years ago.

They didn’t have a ton of disposable income and couldn’t afford a new Stern, and they were a goddamn blast to hang out with and play. Kept great care of the games they did have. Now gone.

And the people in the hobby price-jacking and certain newbs spending endlessly are just hurting the entire hobby.

Everybody should be able to enjoy pinball, no matter how much money they make.

If your friends can’t afford to buy pinball machines now, then why did they just sell all their pinball machines that they got cheap and get out of the hobby? Sounds like they were sitting pretty.

Everybody want to feel better about all this price bubble hoopla? I've told this story a few times over the years...

Back in 2001, I bought my first game, an Adams Family, from a large operator in my area, who offered it to me because it was "at the end of the line" for him (aka, it started out new in a few popular venues, after a couple years he moved it to a few bowling allies, then it made the rounds to a few dive bars and social clubs; finally finding its way to me at its last stop at a club I hung out before he would take it off route). He offered it to me for...wait for it...

$800.

Sure, it was banged up, filthy, and had been through hell, but it played nice how an Adams should. I had probably spent that much in quarters playing Adams over the years, so I said screw it, and grabbed it. I spent the next few months cutting my teeth on taking apart the mechs, cleaning everything, and getting it spiffed up. The operator was even kind enough to sell me some little bits and pieces I needed for it to be fully functional.

Fast forward a year. Same operator offers me a Twilight Zone. Same deal, $800. Same condition as the Adams was originally, good bones, solid player's game. I sold the Adams for $900, which I "almost" felt guilty about, but figuring I put a few bucks and a ton of sweat equity into it, I didn't feel that bad. I was shocked somebody would pay that for a game at the time, honestly.

I got the Twilight Zone and got it running (mostly) well and cleaned it up. It hung around in the "party room" of a house a couple buddies and myself rented in college. We probably played thousands of games on it, and it was kind of an interesting thing to show guests.

Then graduation happened, and we had to move out. I wasn't moving the TZ again, so I threw it up on craigslist for...you guessed it, $900. It actually took a couple of days to sell. I figured, should I ever get the "itch" again to own a game at home, I could just buy another TZ, or whatever, for $900.

Fast forward about a decade, and I was in a house I owned, and had a decent job. I was sitting on my couch having a beer, and thought to myself, "gee, I should buy another pinball machine". I googled "used twilight zone pinball machine" on my phone. Ooops. And this was 2012/13ish, so they were that much cheaper then, but I was still shocked at what they were going for. Story of my life, haha.

How did I know you would be the one to chime in.

Because they didn’t want to sell the nice 5 or 6 game collection they bought...to have only one two at today’s prices.

And the two fellas that left recently aren’t even on this site, and sold their games for reasonable prices to people that actually wanted the games.

It’s funny that even long timers like you don’t see the damage to the hobby (or the sadness) of people that truly enjoyed it leaving.

The ‘ol “If they can’t afford it, then they shouldn’t be in the hobby mentality”. Cool.

I knew you’d get all pissy when I asked for a simple clarification but I still don’t understand.

You have friends that aren’t rich. They had a bunch of games that they had fun with and bought cheap.

So far so good right?

But then They sold them and are no longer in the hobby.

I still don’t get it. If they just kept their games they’d still have pinball machines. They didn’t need to leave the hobby or sell their games.

I only get pissy because you never understand someone else’s perspective other than your own.

They wanted to switch some of their games out, but didn’t want to pay the stupid prices of today to get what they wanted.

The games they had wouldn’t sell for 3 or $4000 each. The games they wanted, are now selling for 5 - 8k.

Given that they had their fun with the games they owned, and were unable to upgrade without reducing their collection to one or two games, they decided just to leave.

Is that clear enough?

As I feel there’s no way I could answer this without you getting mad at me I’ll just say I’m sorry you have friends that left the hobby and I’m sorry if I had anything to do with it by accepting current market conditions and continuing to buy and sell pinball machines.

Thanks a lot man, I appreciate that (although I realize it’s pure sarcasm).

The bottom line is people leaving the hobby sucks. No matter what the reason. Especially people you’ve known for a long time, and had fun enjoying it with.

I feel your pain. I was kind of obsessive as a kid and saved every box, manual and piece of memorabilia from every game or system I owned from NES all the way up to Xbox 360. Then when I graduated university and saw prices were higher than I expected I basically sold it all. A year later it was worth double, today probably close to 5 times what I sold it for.

I guess I just wasn't paying attention but I really didn't see this insane explosion in nostalgia for this stuff coming. It got me too, I have no idea why I sold that stuff. I guess it's easy to say now that I have some money, but back then selling Earthbound for $80 felt awesome.

I do hear what you are saying here but I still feel like there are great games to be had on the cheap. Certainly not NIBs...from Stern and the others of course. I'm lucky I can have the collection I have and never take it for granted. But if something went south, I would like to think I would keep some of my games or keep some of the older less expensive games and turn them around for others often. I don't see myself ever getting out of the hobby.

I’m trying to understand who’s buying these games at these crazy prices. $7k+ for pros, $10k+ for premiums and $15k for LEs in the secondary market. Used to be nib prices would fall until about a year or two after production ended, now they rise from the day of delivery. I’ve been out of the secondary market for a while, and have stuck with nib. haven’t sold anything either in about 6 months, mainly because I know I won’t be able to get it back without having to pay up. Looking at the pinside market each day is pretty depressing.

You know things are nuts when people are paying $5k for demo man, a game you couldn’t give away 10 years ago.

Wtf? https://pinside.com/pinball/market/classifieds/ad/123713

Slim pickins these days. I saw a Street Fighter II listed for like $5k a while back. Now that is a game even four or five years ago you couldn’t give away.

People got price policed if they listed one for over $1500.

^^This^^

Although I'm not seeing as many "Sale Pending" flags of recent.

Banning auction had quite the effect.