(Topic ID: 4443)

Pinball price BUBBLE ... think it can't happen? THINK AGAIN!

By Hyperion

12 years ago


Topic Heartbeat

Topic Stats

  • 1,050 posts
  • 289 Pinsiders participating
  • Latest reply 29 days ago by JWilberdog
  • Topic is favorited by 36 Pinsiders

You

Linked Games

No games have been linked to this topic.

    Topic poll

    “Do you think there is a Pinball Price Bubble?”

    • Yes 265 votes
      45%
    • No 202 votes
      35%
    • Maybe 83 votes
      14%
    • I don't care long as I make more $$$ 33 votes
      6%

    (583 votes)

    Topic Gallery

    View topic image gallery

    720 (resized).jpg
    Beef-Stroganoff-Recipe-9 (resized).jpg
    medicine.gif
    IMG_0285 (resized).png
    C0F20021-920D-43FF-B712-0B224763EA5A.gif
    df8bcdcc-0fc4-41da-a236-dc499c05614c_text.gif
    revenge-of-the-nerds-fire-3.gif
    revenge-of-the-nerds-fire-4.gif
    06AF2B45-791D-4627-84CE-2EFEE9688266 (resized).jpeg
    IMG_1997 (resized).JPG
    IMG_2006 (resized).JPG
    IMG_1811 (resized).JPG
    Screenshot_20230719_191134_Brave (resized).jpg
    6350EBD5-B1CD-4607-82FB-D27100639F3E.gif
    IMG_8068 (resized).jpeg
    IMG_8067 (resized).jpeg

    There are 1,050 posts in this topic. You are on page 5 of 21.
    #201 2 years ago
    Quoted from Tranquilize:

    Thanks to all Americans. Your system produces pure entertainment.

    Upvoted, because I can’t argue with that.

    #202 2 years ago
    Quoted from swampfire:

    I’m sure I’m not the only one who thinks the guy in your profile pic sucks, I’ll just leave it at that.

    Dudes got tons of cocaine, whiskey & cash…what sucks about that?

    #203 2 years ago

    I’ve been collecting pins for 23 years and I’ve never seen prices go down. We can only hope.

    #204 2 years ago
    Quoted from CrazyLevi:

    Yes you and 100,000 other people.
    That’s why it won’t happen.
    Everybody seems to have this erotic fantasy that the bubble will implode violently and they will be the only person on the planet left who wants pinball machines, and they’ll swoop in and build an A list collection for $3000.
    It just doesn’t work that way.

    I was more referencing that this thread was started 10-years ago, when the OP thought that prices were too high. Now those prices seem like a steal.

    #205 2 years ago

    I didnt think these guys would identity so close with a registered pillow biter; but fair enough.

    #206 2 years ago

    Let’s go…

    #207 2 years ago
    Quoted from Pinfactory2000:

    Looks like remakes are going from $13-19K...Are originals really going for more than $20K?????

    Until CGC does another run next year

    #208 2 years ago

    While I don't think the pinball bubble will ever burst, I do believe that some of this boils down to supply and demand. The manufacturers with pins that people want cannot keep up with demand right now. How long is the backlog over at Stern right now? What month's orders of Guns and Roses are being filled right now? We are in a rare MSRP+ cash environment right now. Eventually manufacturing will catch up, and the supply chain shortage will be alleviated but I see this happening in 2023 or 2024.

    When that happens, the price will come down to earth (or at least back to MSRP +/= $500) on in demand pins like Deadpool, Jurassic Park Premium, and Elvira still in manufacturing. I think the higher prices in the secondary market are here to stay.

    Also, the number of people in the pinball market looking for late model games is higher than ever. More and more 30 somethings (like me) are getting into the hobby, and there are only so many pinball machines to go around... for now.

    #209 2 years ago

    I dont think it´s a bubble but it probably needs a downward adjustment.
    New games need to drop 20% and old games 40%.

    #210 2 years ago
    Quoted from Pinfactory2000:

    Looks like remakes are going from $13-19K...Are originals really going for more than $20K?????

    This just means more are interested in the hobby and that companies need to produce more product.
    It´s a good thing and prices will adjust downwards when companies realises they leave lots of money on the table.

    #211 2 years ago

    Prices adjust downward when there’s more supply than demand. We’re a long ways away from that.

    #212 2 years ago
    Quoted from chuckwurt:

    Prices adjust downward when there’s more supply than demand. We’re a long ways away from that.

    I don't think we are going to get much more supply of old games... especially ones with complicated licensing aspects like Addams Family.

    #213 2 years ago
    Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

    I don't think we are going to get much more supply of old games... especially ones with complicated licensing aspects like Addams Family.

    The overall supply of new and old games. The prices of older games are driven by the overall availability of games. Fewer collectors looking for games increases the supply of games available to buy. If that supply is greater than the demand, prices decrease.

    #214 2 years ago

    A bubble requires evaluations of 2-5x+ historical/relative value………Pinball pricing has never reached that level and has never been in “bubble” status. The rise in pricing has been similar to the rate of inflation and pressure on hobby growth. Could there be 10-20% pricing pressure if the hobby doesn’t continue to grow at the rate it did during Covid? Yes, when the supply and demand side of the equation balance. Heck that could take 2 more years at this rate, especially given the back log of games. I don’t think a recession could slow down this hobby much given its small base and wealthy demographic. Simple math, if the average pinhead has a 4 pins in their collection and we got 15,000 new HUO owners to enter the hobby during Covid (world wide), that’s 60,000 games are needed to balance the supply demand equation. Add the other 1000 locations (world wide) that needed to buy back games for their locations, i.e 10,000 and finally add in the distributors (world wide) that need to replenish their inventory, i.e, 15,000. Total 85,000 games would have been needed to saturate the pinball market during Covid and post Covid time frames to accommodate hobby growth. Given the number of manufacturers and the number of games they are able to produce annually, I’d say we have another 1-3 years before this pinball train slows down.

    #215 2 years ago
    Quoted from thedarkknight77:

    I’d say we have another 1-3 years before this pinball train slows down.

    If demand is projected to continue to grow then Stern should add another production line(s). Constructing a new line would be relatively cheap/easy, but increasingly labor and part supply are obviously constraints right now.

    I was in manufacturing and in a situation like this the pressure would be intense to quickly bring on new production. More important than short-term profits, it creates an opening for competition. Stern’s competition is generally inept at getting product out the door but I still wouldn’t give them a sustained opening.

    #216 2 years ago
    Quoted from luckymoey:

    add another production line(s).

    What will that do? They cannot even run at their current 115 game capacity because of supply chain issues.

    #217 2 years ago
    Quoted from ralphs007:

    Yeah but there's probably a lot of them that can afford to just call a technician to fix there game.

    Yupp, buy a 10K machine, but balk at a couple hundred repair bill..

    #218 2 years ago
    Quoted from chuckwurt:

    What will that do? They cannot even run at their current 115 game capacity because of supply chain issues.

    I said that supply issues were the key constraint, but if demand is projected to continue to grow, i.e. not a bubble, then adding production may be the right move. I don’t know the degree of supply constraints, especially capital intense manufacturing like chips, but if the mid-longer term outlook is strong then you should be aggressively working constraints, which a well run business like Stern is obviously doing.

    My point is that if new consumers are a major growth driver, vs. short term easy money, then added Stern production is a major or the key factor to the pinball pricing outlook.

    #219 2 years ago

    I think the problem will come down to SPACE.

    The influx of new hobbyist will move on (post COVID). They'll get out as quickly as they came in.

    When I did my last move, I wanted to move my games fast. If you've been in the hobby for a while you realize what a pain in the ass it can be to relocate 20-25 pins can be (with a 30 day escrow). Unfortunately, it wasn't at the time when people are buying anything they can get their hands on at practically any price.

    These machines take up a ton of room and the "bubble" will happen, when the new blood in the hobby starts moving out their latest purchases. This will of course take up market share and drive the demand downward.

    #220 2 years ago

    I remember buying my first game ... Williams Indiana Jones which the only issue was slight fading on one side. I paid a huge $1500 for it and that was expensive back then. I remember my first NIB Stern, LOTR, at a whopping $3500 delivered. Then there was Tron LE that I preordered for $5100.

    Remember those NIB CVs for $2k?

    pepfarm_remembers (resized).jpegpepfarm_remembers (resized).jpeg
    #221 2 years ago
    Quoted from luckymoey:

    I said that supply issues were the key constraint, but if demand is projected to continue to grow, i.e. not a bubble, then adding production may be the right move.

    They currently have 115 a day capacity and were at 75 games a day pre Covid. In this market, I would be shocked if 115 a day didn’t meet demand. But maybe you’re right.

    #222 2 years ago

    Would Levi sanction this as THEE price bubble thread, I have never seen so many old timer accounts in one place Before. I’ve been trying to find the root of this topic for a while now. It’s like trying to find the arc in that warehouse at the end of raiders The lost arc. I think this might be the one.

    #223 2 years ago

    One thing I haven’t seen mentioned is profit-driven selling pressure. If I have an older game that’s selling for 2x-3x what I paid for it, I have a much stronger incentive to sell it than 5 years ago. Having said that, I’m still not selling any because I love my old SS pins.

    #224 2 years ago
    Quoted from Mogg:

    Would Levi sanction this as THEE price bubble thread, I have never seen so many old timer accounts in one place Before. I’ve been trying to find the root of this topic for a while now. It’s like trying to find the arc in that warehouse at the end of raiders The lost arc. I think this might be the one.

    Top. Men.

    #225 2 years ago

    Are we still doing this?

    #227 2 years ago
    Quoted from gambit3113:

    Are we still doing this?

    It’ll never, ever end.

    We’ve discussed this many times. Fantasy is more attractive than reality, and the fantasy that suddenly everybody but the Royal You will lose interest in the hobby and pinball machines will be incredibly cheap is just too attractive to surrender.

    Surely I’ve already posted the “pinball price bubble thread graveyard” list here, no?

    #228 2 years ago

    Soooo.....Which guy are you talking about? Could be either Lol.

    #229 2 years ago
    Quoted from gweempose:

    It took you 10 months to formulate a response, and that was the best you could come up with?

    I would never sell a pin less than what i paid.. no bubble, prices will continue unless the game sucks. Just like the stock market, 90 percent owned by the 1 percent.

    #230 2 years ago
    Quoted from Lamberger:

    I would never sell a pin less than what i paid.. no bubble, prices will continue unless the game sucks. Just like the stock market, 90 percent owned by the 1 percent.

    Are you suggesting only the richest 1 percent of pinsiders own 90 percent of the games?

    OCCUPY PINSIDE!!

    #231 2 years ago
    Quoted from luckymoey:

    If demand is projected to continue to grow then Stern should add another production line(s). Constructing a new line would be relatively cheap/easy, but increasingly labor and part supply are obviously constraints right now.
    I was in manufacturing and in a situation like this the pressure would be intense to quickly bring on new production. More important than short-term profits, it creates an opening for competition. Stern’s competition is generally inept at getting product out the door but I still wouldn’t give them a sustained opening.

    Good point. Will Stern use production volume and cost advatages to put pressure on the competition? If they could add a line and avoid or absorb some costs "hold my beer" time.

    #232 2 years ago

    I think the Bubble's going to burst in certain regions as the Hyper Inflation starts pricing out the people
    that built this hobby. When I started in this hobby as a avid player in the 90s games were cheap if you could
    find them. When I got into a position where I could own a game 11 years ago prices were low and I was easily
    able to build up a very large collection of games. That gained in value and I traded my way to the collection I have
    today. At some point the reality that I'm getting older and probably shouldn't burden my family with 20+ games.
    I started downsizing last year right when the bubbles started. Which was good. However with NIB prices going up
    it kind a wash.

    I hate to say it but I think 2022 on we will start to see some Bubbles bursting . Unless we start getting more people into
    hobby under the age of 30. I think it will be a long slow decline until I find myself at retirement age. Wish I had some
    real statistics . Wonder if IFPA collects any demographics on average players age.

    Cv

    #233 2 years ago

    I think for the every 1 person lost to being priced out there is another 3 guys who don't care and will continue to buy, this craziness ain't going away any time soon

    #234 2 years ago
    Quoted from TechnicalSteam:

    I hate to say it but I think 2022 on we will start to see some Bubbles bursting . Unless we start getting more people into
    hobby under the age of 30.
    Cv

    This literally made me bust out laughing.

    We've heard this exact statement or a variation thereof a million times.

    The only new twist on all this is the "hyperinflation" rap, which is more of a political statement than a pinball economics one, and is really en vogue right now.

    By the way, the top 10 finalists at last weekend's Pinball Expo tournament, where most of the top US players were competing, were all under the age of 30. I believe 9 out of 10 of them were under the age of 21. The winner and runner up are both 18.

    I know competition pinball and collector pinball are different things, but that's got to tell you something about the veracity of the supposed aging / impending nursing-home related bubble burst theory.

    #235 2 years ago

    I've got some 10-12 year olds into hobby . i hope time will tell.

    It's not a political thing though. Here in the Midwest its a much different picture than out East.
    At least where I live not lot of people that can afford a 10k 5k or 3k machine.

    #236 2 years ago
    Quoted from CrazyLevi:

    Are you suggesting only the richest 1 percent of pinsiders own 90 percent of the games?
    OCCUPY PINSIDE!!

    crazy Levi! The rain stopped so don't break. haha! I don't have the data, but definitely a interesting question. I'm part of the 1, gotta fight inflation one way or another.

    #237 2 years ago
    Quoted from Kiwipinhead:

    Until CGC does another run next year

    Yeah, likely to see another drop in the prices of the originals then too. Good point.

    #238 2 years ago
    Quoted from The_Pump_House:

    You cant compare that way. I picked up a heavily routed MM that never tested the market. I bought it as is as it sat (half the bulbs burned out, playfield so dirty around the pops you cant even see the artwork.

    You think with a A+ shop job on the one you picked up you'd get $20K? If so send it to me, I'll pay shipping, I'll shop it and split the $9K profit with you.

    #239 2 years ago
    Quoted from Pinfactory2000:

    You think with a A+ shop job on the one you picked up you'd get $20K? If so send it to me, I'll pay shipping, I'll shop it and split the $9K profit with you.

    MM is going to get shopped and put on the floor for a while, then it will get a full restoration.

    None of my pins are for sale until I retire

    #240 2 years ago
    Quoted from TechnicalSteam:

    It's not a political thing though. Here in the Midwest its a much different picture than out East.
    At least where I live not lot of people that can afford a 10k 5k or 3k machine.

    Not sure what midwest you're living in, but Ohio is full of cheap housing that we're filling up with pins. Much easier to load up here than on the expensive coasts. Ohio, PA, MI, IL, WI, MN are some of the biggest pinball states in the country.

    EDIT: I see you're in MO, that's kinda on the edge of midwestern civilization...

    #241 2 years ago
    Quoted from swampfire:

    I’ve been collecting pins for 23 years and I’ve never seen prices go down. We can only hope.

    I take it you never collected old EM wood rail games. Also many of the top EM games and some early SS games. They all went down or were flat lined from their hayday years. Although most of them have now gone up in the past 2 years with everything else. But for a while they were worth more in 2000 then in the 20teens.

    #242 2 years ago
    Quoted from CrazyLevi:

    Yes you and 100,000 other people.
    That’s why it won’t happen.
    Everybody seems to have this erotic fantasy that the bubble will implode violently and they will be the only person on the planet left who wants pinball machines, and they’ll swoop in and build an A list collection for $3000.
    It just doesn’t work that way.

    Well, my retirement plans are now destroyed. I’m out.

    #243 2 years ago

    When cash gets short you reach for the easiest possession to unload.
    I have standing offers for most of my meager collection. Where I could make a call and they are here before dark.
    I'm sure there are Folks here with better machines who could liquidate just as quick(right now).
    The question is, will this continue?
    The speculation for a significant price drop hinges on the Avalanche Effect.
    A few crumbs are sold, then someone gets cold feet and lists similar games. A small bidding War, same Titles showing up for sale in the usual places.
    People already freak here when there are several of the same Title offered in Marketplace.
    "Does the game suck? What do they know I don't?"
    Personally, I am alarmed at the amount of Pinball machines that have been sold/ Auctioned/ offered for sale this Year.
    Forget the high prices for a moment.
    Fact is HUNDREDS of machines have moved in 2021.
    Large Museums and Barcades sold out.
    Large Collections liquidated.
    A lot of Newbies have their dream machine.
    How fast are they going to sell if the rent is due, the Baby is hungry?
    Most of the Older Collectors watch the direction of the Sales Wind closely.
    They have been banking on the Big Sale to fuel retirements.
    Disturbing downturns could (will) hasten their decision to call the Auctioneers.

    My opinion only, thats how I see it.

    #244 2 years ago
    Quoted from arcademojo:

    I take it you never collected old EM wood rail games. Also many of the top EM games and some early SS games. They all went down or were flat lined from their hayday years. Although most of them have now gone up in the past 2 years with everything else. But for a while they were worth more in 2000 then in the 20teens.

    Never wood rails, but I’ve moved through some EMs and prices have definitely climbed on those. I remember Gottlieb Atlantis and El Dorado going for ~$1500 around 2015, and I thought that was high. Those seem to fetch $2K+ easily now, in nice condition.

    Generally I do agree that older games sell more slowly these days. There’s sadly a lot of antipathy toward EMs among most newer collectors: “too slow and boring”.

    #245 2 years ago

    Forgive me... I didn't read all the posts from the last 10 years.

    Did the bubble happen?

    I jumped in head over feet into this hobby during Covid.

    #246 2 years ago
    Quoted from TechnicalSteam:

    I've got some 10-12 year olds into hobby . i hope time will tell.
    It's not a political thing though. Here in the Midwest its a much different picture than out East.
    At least where I live not lot of people that can afford a 10k 5k or 3k machine.

    Maybe not in St. Charles, but I’m sure Ladue, Clayton and Chesterfield can. There’s more money in St. Louis than you may realize.

    10
    #247 2 years ago

    The bubble will burst when all of us that remember playing pinball as a kid die off.

    oh... wait

    kidz (resized).jpgkidz (resized).jpg
    #248 2 years ago

    Demand is increasing, and the number of older machines is finite. Therefor being that the hobby is gaining in popularity, the prices will continue to increase. Since the prices of new machines continue to increase, and increases a lot recently; the prices of older machines have followed, and will continue to do so.
    We can all hope to be able to afford more machines, but reality is that pinball machines hold their value pretty well; as long as they are taken care of. There are not many electronic and mechanical items that hold their value, and are as fun to use as pinball machines are. As more bars are opened up with pinball machines inside, more people will find the hobby. When the manufacturers increase the number of pins being made per title to the point where everything is not sold out immediately, it will stabilize. Prices are not going to go down anytime soon, and it is absolutely not a bubble. It is a silently booming hobby/business which has a lot of room to grow. This is a great thing for the hobbyists, because quality and innovation will improve this great hobby as more and more money is being spent on it. Also, it should make everyone pretty happy that you can use a machine for a year, and not lose more than 10 -15% from what you paid when you sell or trade it in. that is amazing. It costs less now to keep a machine for a year, and then sell it than it would to rent a game for 2-3 months. Pinball is a great hobby, and pretty much cash in the bank long term. That is not going to change, and eventually collector condition machines will be considered in the same aspect as some artwork is. Thank you to Gary Stern for keeping the business alive. He deserves all of his success, because if it was not for him; we might not have such a great hobby to look forward to everyday, and we surely would not have so much interest and such a bright future with this hobby.

    #249 2 years ago

    I always thought that saturation would hit and considered liquidating a few years back.

    The anomaly is that the global borrowing ponzi scheme has no end in sight. Even when times become tough for a lot of people, there are many, many new millionaires. Pinball is getting close to just a rich man's hobby, and there are simply too many rich men. As long as it grows, prices will at least be stable.

    We did see prices coming down before covid. People were taking losses on NIB. I think it will come back down to that soon, but not lower. Crazy times, my friend.

    #250 2 years ago

    "Investment" is just the label we put on all of our big-boy toys when trying to justify our purchases to our spouses (and sometimes to ourselves).

    There are 1,050 posts in this topic. You are on page 5 of 21.

    Reply

    Wanna join the discussion? Please sign in to reply to this topic.

    Hey there! Welcome to Pinside!

    Donate to Pinside

    Great to see you're enjoying Pinside! Did you know Pinside is able to run without any 3rd-party banners or ads, thanks to the support from our visitors? Please consider a donation to Pinside and get anext to your username to show for it! Or better yet, subscribe to Pinside+!


    This page was printed from https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-price-bubble-think-it-cant-happen-think-again/page/5 and we tried optimising it for printing. Some page elements may have been deliberately hidden.

    Scan the QR code on the left to jump to the URL this document was printed from.