Hmmm.... Think..... Think.... Uh.... Think...

I do agree with you alot of us are in this hobby for the love of the game
but alot guys are in this hobby to make money and dont care anything
about it and its like everything else around us.There are more sellers out
there than there are collectors.

I guess it's about what you see going on around you
if the place you live in is selling or buying?

I know maybe 2 years ago C-list was jumping ever 1-2 weeks you would find great pins
and now it's like months go by before something good comes up........dead

Yes i agree to some extent but with me at least im not collecting for their 'value' or 'what there worth' or an investment...im buying the machines i want in the condition i want and what i can afford right now.

Sure i would be most happy if in 10 years time they held there price,but if not im not bothered either as its the machine and enjoyment of having it that i like over it being an investment.

I have a couple of friends that have been collecting over 10 years and both have all if not most the A grade titles and they got them at sickeningly cheap prices compared to what i have to pay NOW to own.

As long as you pay what your happy to pay i dont think the bubble burst will hurt to much

Not sure I see it happening.....Even with Stern & JJP competing the best games from the mid 90's are getting harder & harder to find as most people who are collectors are holding onto them & the others are pretty beat up. The top quality games will always fetch pretty high prices & I think we have already started to see the mid tier pins start to rise in value too.

I think there are two generations right now vying for pins, which are driving demand.

Boomers, who are late middle age or retiring. Their friends bought Harleys and they bought pins.

Gen-x grew up in the last hurrah of the arcades, and the last heyday of pinball. Now Gen-x is buying houses, raising families and wondering what to do with the basement.

Neither generation is going away anytime soon so I think the collector market will be around for another couple decades before pinball becomes the next pitch 'n bat. One caveat, though, is if some miraculous "game changer" occurs in pinball, making previous games less valuable.

Like WOZ or maybe SR next pin!Just wishing

They are not making TZ any more or WH2O. These are not comic books!!
There are many more collectors than there are pinball machines.
Once the best ones get scooped up there will only be 2nd rate pins left.

Remember, Price is all about supply and demand.

As the supply gets smaller the price gets higher.

And they are not making MB anymore.

There is no bubble.

People aren't feeling as poor as they did in 2008 and 2009, so you aren't seeing the games coming out of the one-off households. There was a time not too long ago that great games were being listed at low prices because people needed money and they were fire selling. Now that the economy has recovered some, they are content to have that broken machine keep sitting there for another year or two. It seems that the only sellers out there are high end collectors and people trying to make a big profit. I wont be surprised if the market picks up again when we get a little closer to Christmas when people need some extra cash.

I'd say even if Jersey Jack Pinball does nothing else, they've kicked Stern into shaking things up. Let's just hope that Gary isn't right about his prognostication of (paraphrased) "if another pinball manufacturer comes on the scene, it'll dilute the market and both companies will fold".

I don't agree, but I wouldn't say there's a bubble either. I think we are looking for something new and fun. If anything the bubble might form if JJP can revitalize the market somewhat.

I agree. I think more people are getting into this hobby. And there are only a fixed number of classic/childhood memory games out there (90's games from my perspective I'm in the gen X group) which would naturally drive up the prices.

I wish I got into collecting 10 years ago - and wasn't spending my money buying new cars every two years!

Since when did having a hobby equate to expecting to make money? If you're in it to make money that is called a BUSINESS and you need to be looking at pins in a whole different way. There are still deals to be had out there if you are patient. People collect pinball machines because they love the games, the art, the lights, the sounds.

If you're collecting in the hopes that your collection will represent your 401K someday then you are screwed. It is true that pin prices have been historically cheaper. Hell I bought a virutally new Fathom in 1983 for $250.00 and look what they go for now. Same thing with WH20, I bought the first one I had for $450 and it just needed to be cleaned. The titles that are the most desirable go up as demand increases and supply decreases. The supply will never change but demand as time goes on will increase for nice machines. This is all predicated on if we have electricity next year to use these games as the jackasses in our Government toy with our future...

I think the demand and prices will go up as more Gen-Xers with disposable income buy bigger homes, have the kids move out, etc. Most people I meet don't even realize that there is a market for privately-owned pinball and arcade games and that you can actually buy them for a somewhat affordable price. As that awareness goes up, so will demand.

Perfect example of supply/demand. I think the only thing that will drive the prices down is when the people that were playing these machines as kids or young adults start croaking because the people that care about them will be gonzo. Since pinball was still very popular up until the early 90's I would assume there are alot of mid-20 year olds still playing pinball. That, imo, will be the last generation to keep this hobby alive. So I am thinking that this hobby will be around for at least another 30 years.

Think about the machines 30 years from now. They may still be around, but look at parts. That is what I think is going through the roof! I have a CFTBL and all I can think about when I play is "I hope the hologram doesn't go out" because there is no replacement for it.

Just my opinion, wth do I know!!

Thinking about this more...

In the near term I could see prices on older games coming down a little if collectors want to sell games to make room for WOZ, JJ second pin, and whatever games come from Stern's new design team. But only if there is not enough demand or new people getting into pinball to snatch up these older games fast enough.

Could just be wishful thinking on my part, hoping I can score a great deal!

the reason the Comic book and Baseball card market crashed it because it is to easy to fake those. Advances in the printing trades made it easy to reproduce. Who is going to buy an original when they can buy a copy for half the price? Who's going to buy at all if they don't know if it's real?

There are no counterfiet pinball machines. The price will only be limited by the cost it takes to reproduce them. And JJ is setting the market at 7500. That's why MM has come down in price. It was too high.

I think it can depend on your area. Right now my local Craigslist is crawling with Pinball buyers/flippers (no pun intended, really). Almost every day there are new wanted ads posted. There are rarely any for sale ads and the ones that are listed are asking top dollar. As some of the flippers drop out, I can see the price dropping, but as long as you do your homework and don't overspend on a pin, I don't see any major bubble.

I 100% believe there is no bubble. The Gen X statement is correct. I grew up in arcades in the 90s while my mom shopped for hours. Now i have a good job (a lot of people still don't but eventually the economy will turn around) and a basement and want to relieve my fond memories of the arcades. And I believe there are many out there.
Comics and sport cards died because of eBay and the over-saturation of the market. There was only 1 Mickey Mantle rookie cards but 100s of different Lebron rookie cards thus the value completely deflated. Whereas for pinball they only made so many MBs, AFMs, etc and each year their numbers dwindle which should only drive up the price.
The only thing that may burst the old bubble is another golden era like 91-99 with numerous companies making awesome machines. But that probably won't happen with arcades being all but nonexistant. Plus with Stern currently being the only game in town and 2 of their 3 games they make a year being crappy or a lame movie license no one cares about, that would only make players enjoy the old ones even more.

If woz and or stern with steve are successful in creating great games they bring new people into the hobby who then want the top rated games from the 90's. When I bring someone over to my place to play for the first time they have a great time and start asking questions about upkeep and cost. There is no bubble, How many people reading this thread are new to the hobby within the last 3 years?

Precisely! As much as I hate to say it, I don't see prices going down any time soon. There has been a huge influx of new collectors into the market (myself included). The economy may be hurting, but as a whole, pinball collectors have a larger disposable income than the general population. These same people, many who are rapidly approaching middle age, are yearning to recapture some of their youth. Pinball is a means of escapism, and this is even more important in these stressful times. When you combine all of these factors, it just adds more fuel to the fire.

The only thing on the horizon that I can see having an effect on pin prices is if both Stern and JJP start pumping out super desirable games. This could potentially result in a flood of less popular titles hitting the market as people try to make some quick cash and/or make room for the new pins. I don't see this having an effect on the "A-list" titles, though. Those games will always be prized by collectors.

Bingo! When I'm feeling stressed, a beer or three coupled with blowing away Terminators on T2 or waterskiers on FT calms me down!

While some appear optimistic that the economy is recovering a bit I'm not buying that at all. I think things will get much much worse before they get better. With the system we have now looking to take money out of medicare, social security, and education well it seems like desperation to me. And when it comes to choosing to feed a family or a pin well bye bye pin. Sorry for the bleak outlook I just call it like I see it. Even if they do fall though I really don't care. I buy pins for the hobby they provide to play and fix them up more than for investment purposes. I think there are much more profitable investments than pins.

Me too. When the Bulls lost in the playoffs 2 hours straight of playing and I felt okay....

their was a thread a while back where people stated what they did for a living. If i recall correctly most of the people stated fairly high income/professional jobs. i.e. this hobby is attracting people with spare cash which equals price inflation.

True the economy is in difficult times but a aerospace engineer or doctor or biotech scientist will still pay up for a TZ, spiderman etc...

Me. I was born in '64, and was a pinball junkie in the late 70's and early 80's. Then, college, job, wife, kids and other ReaLife events took all my time. Only in the past few years have I gotten back into the hobby. Bought my 1st pin in Aug.'10, and have purchashed four more since then (sold one). From my perspective - it does seem like more people are getting into the hobby recently. ...or perhaps that's just me being more aware. FUnny thing though - just yesterday I was watching a commercial on TV for a 'lighting' store - and they said something like "and that's not all - we have pinball machines too~!" When's the last time you've heard an add like that on TV?

All I know is that the games I am looking for now, back then I could find fairly easier. The price doesn't matter or the value to me. It would be actually nice for more machines to be "dumped" to buy these newer machines. I don't see most of these going down. More and more people are scooping them up.We want more people to like pinball but when they buy all of ours up we get pissed. The only time I get pissed is when you get people who enter the market and see the prices on some these machines and try to make more and more on them. Hey I would rather have one of these pieces of art than a Picasso any day. That's what these are, pieces of electronic art that you can only experience by playing. Wizard Of OZ looks like a masterpiece already. I asked one of the dealers around here if he is getting one and he said "They won't even come out". I had to walk away.

While I see your point I don't necessarily agree with it. Your talking about the few there not the majority. When demand of the majority goes down price goes down as well. But I am always willing to agree to disagree with a fellow pinhead.

Funny I never thought of myself as a "collector"......, more of an enthusiast, (hope I spelled that correctly). I own, buy, and sell only because I love to play the game. I only own one pin now and have never owned more than two at any given time and on top of that I love the old SS Gottliebs most don't care for like the star race I have now. Yes I am a Boomer and I'm sure to some extent that plays into my choice of pins but, I hardly think us Boomers are driving any part of the market.

I agree with two statements on this thread. 1. Generation X has now entered the hobby which in turn has increased the amount of collectors. 2. The economy is gonna get worse before it gets better.

I just hope there are more people getting into the Hobby for their love of pinball rather than to make a quick buck!

ebay.com link: ws

Does this represent the future of pin pricing? If so, I am buying 10 new Trons and retiring on my own island in 15 years after I sell them each for $100k!

What? You don't think that stainless steel POA is worth an extra 10 grand?

This thread is going to set me off get me going...

First, comics and pinball machines are not f%@$ing relative at all.
-Kids collect comics, Adults collect pinball machines
-Comics are leisure sit down kill time and pinball machines are stand up action
etc etc...
A collection of pages folded and stapled together with ink on them
is not something you can compare in relation with a machine.
You'd have to compare machines with machines.
Like arcade games or cars or boats or something more substantive.

Second, Inflation
If ya don't know of the word then ya should learn it.
The buying power of the US dollar AKA Federal Reserve note has gone
straight down since 1913 and the creation of the third private bank over America.
Yes, our government makes money out of thin air and the more of it
that exists, the less each dollar is worth, simple math.
That had to be prefaced, now it is no wonder why you could buy
more Pinball machine for your hard earned dollar 5, 10, 15 years ago.

Third, A Bubble
The last great one in American history was the Housing bubble.
A house has very Little intrinsic value!
It isn't made of silver, gold, platinum and
it does not yield anything (products, goods, work).
A primary house is liability.
A primary house is not an investment (read Rich Dad Poor Dad).
Therefor, I don't see the .com suckers and house suckers
now flooding in and investing in pinball machines, those suckers are broke.

Fourth, Pinball is a niche market
The average person isn't going to go out this year and buy
the used machine that you have been dreaming of for a long time.
The market is US, the players and collectors.
This market is and will grow, but it is the Gen Xers buying
and most aren't that stupid.

Fifth, The Free Market
The price for goods/services in the private sector is based on this.
So does the price of Pinball Machines!
If I could get a great Fish Tales for $1000 I'd be f'n happy!
Seeing that I will most likely pay $1500 does not affect my desire to plans to buy one.

End of my Rant

_{Post edited by absocountry2 : profanity edited}

I know of a few .com suckers that are filthy rich, Mark Cuban being one of them.

i agree with 99% of High Protein's rant, all except .com suckers being broke.

And that a house is not an investment. Of course a house is an investment, It may not be a good investment right now but it's still an investment....I built many many homes in the 90's and I did very very well. There is plenty of money to be made in the housing market. I was fortunate enough to get out of that biz before it crashed.

Sorry to disagree with you on the comic analogy.

The comic book market NEVER CRASHED. If you have a Silver Age or Bronze Age CGC comics, that are highly graded, your investment went way up. Speculators of the late 80's and early 90's didn't hit it big.

Death of Superman, X-men, Todd McFarlane's Spider-man print run was in the hundreds of thousands. Plus Superman returned, so it wasn't really a "death". The relaunched X-men 1 had a print run of 5 million. These were never collectible. The window to flip these were a year at the most, especially after they kept making more print runs.

In reality, CGC + Ebay = Huge gains in the comic market. Merge this with the movies coming out and silver/bronze age books have never been in more demand. If you want more proof, get a Heritage Auction catalog and compare hammer prices from 5-10 years ago to today. Look at the Milehigh Collection as another example.

CGC is an independent company that grades and assures the buyer they are not getting a restored/altered book. The books are heat sealed in a UV protective hard plastic. The company only started 11 years ago.

I sold an Avengers 57, CGC 9.8 for 4500 bucks 2 years ago, bought it for 600, probably worth more now. Universal High Grade Blue Label books sell 6-10 times higher than a similar non-CGC book. When the stocks fell below 10,000 a couple years ago, people were diversifying there portfolios with CGC books. (Not with the speculative "Collector" stuff like Knightfall)

Pinball is different. Smaller market, less product, and based on technology. A lot of different variables

In price, with a few exceptions: DMD>SS>EM (Once again some exceptions, FH>Popeye) 90% of the DMD's price higher than SS.

I'm sure LCD will be worth more than DMD pins in the future as the technology will put them more in demand.

Too many variables to decide about the values of pins. I like have nice pins to play, but I really don't see them being a great investment.

The tide comes in and out with everything in one way or another
Comic books, baseball cards, electric model trains, muscle cars you name it it's been bought n sold over and over again.
The players that play the game well have an uncanny sense to get out before a crash - then jump back in 'HEAVY' when prices are super low.
If you develop a rule sheet or a criteria that you will stick to almost religiously yet can tweak as time goes on then I see no problem buying a selling for the next 20 years.
- Of course what screws everyone up is greed and lust

I think there is a bubble but it depends mostly on location. At the moment here in Ontario Canada good collector pins are relatively scarce. If they do come up for sale they are usually gone in a few hours of posting.

But the prices here are really out of wack, An AFM in ok shape $6000, a TOM that needs every plastic replaced and a new DMD $3500. A beat up TZ $5000. AF in bad, bad shape $4000 You get the picture. It is not only the fact that collectors are holding onto their pins, but also the fact that the demand is way higher than the supply.

I am in no way a person who wants to inflate the price of pins but... I bought a Pinbot for $700 the same day the ad was posted, fixed a few diodes and misc stuff. shopped it added LED's and sold it for $1600 a year later, the same day I posted it, and that was to another collector. Just because they don't come up for sale,(at least not in that condition) and if they do they are beat to all hell and really only good for parts,unless you have a new Playfield but still $1000+.

The problem is Ebay price listings, and shops even if you tell a seller that it is not realistic, they still stand by that price. So really it is the actual shops driving up the prices of pins not the collectors, but if we sell for the actual realistic prices they end up being sold down the line for more later, either by a retailer who bought it after it broke on someone who couldn't fix it. Or someone who looks at the availability and waits for one of us suckers who just has to have it to come along.

You can find EM's for $200-600 all day long in good shape, but if a decent system 11 or DMD machine comes up prepare to pay a pretty penny. Any system 11 game $1000-$2000+ and when I give the low end thats for a machine that needs alot, ALOT of work.

Recently a non working pin 2000 SWE1 (not mine) with a bad playfield sold for $2500. WTF? I posted mine on a collectors site locally for $2800 or trade. Last run machine w/ plaque, New monitor, new playfield, mint cabinet, Full Led kit, etc, etc, and I have collectors offering me $1500-$1800. Again WTF? Just to see it up for sale a week later for $3000+. If I actually posted it for sale on craigs list or Kijiji it would more than likely sell, but I was hoping for a decent trade offer from another hobbiest.

Its frustrating, but true. So yes, the 30 somethings have a bit of disposible income now(I'm one of them) and guess what, because of this, the price will always go up especially in areas where the demand is so high, 4 million people in a 100 mile area around here means no reasonable prices. Or collectable pins left. But also they guys buying up loads of machines and waiting on them is driving up the prices too. Just like the last few NIB williams pins that have come out lately.

If it sold for that NIB, than my mint one must be worth this much.

But guys here have started going to the U.S. buying pins and flipping them at double what they paid with no other work other than border costs to the pins. Working or not.

Sad but true. Just my two cents on the subject.

Hobbyest !

there is a upcoming generation that could really get into pinball be cause of hobbyest like us.

But guys here have started going to the U.S. buying pins and flipping them at double what they paid with no other work other than border costs to the pins. Working or not.

So that's where all our precious pins are going!

Blame_Canada.jpg

GREAT PIC!

I know of a few places here that hold auctions monthly that sell imported pins from the U.S.
I went to an auction about 2 years ago that was in a warehouse that had nothing but pins and vids from a place that closed and some guys bought out of the states, honestly hundreds of them. Some of the best prices I have ever seen at the time on arcade machines anyway, But the pins were (of course) way bid up and overpriced. Plus none of the pins were in full working condition.

With NIB pins from Stern coming in at $5500 (LE), and with JJP selling WoZ at $6500, I don't know that prices of used pins are going to come down anytime soon.

Difficult call.

You could argue the more great games JJ makes, the more older pins that will be sold to finance them.

Or, there might be a small comeback for pinball and so people new to the hobby will want the older classic titles.

Good condition A titles will always be easy to sell ( well for the next 10 years ) but prices will bounce around for sure.

maybe not a bubble bursting, but i do forsee a price correction for certain A list games. mm and afm could see a slightly reduced price if woz turns out to be amazing.
i was on the fence as to buying the new woz with all its possible advancements, or spending the same amount for an afm 16 year old machine. i still will get afm, but if the price is the same as a new jjp machine, that is what i will buy.

i have been in the hobby for a short time, otherwise i would have owned an afm when prices were more reasonable a few years back.

My thoughts as well, but I bought an AFM with new decals, new playfield etc etc for less than the WOZ........prefer the theme.

I am waiting for JJ pin number 2......

The value of the DOLLAR has alot to do with prices! Also, if the banks only pay out 2% interest, and the stock market too volitle, I'd rather put my $ into pinball, or some "fun" hard asset. Gold is good, but you can't play with it!!!

I never thought of my pins as an investment. I don't think my pins were supposed to last this long.

I don't think you can compare pinball to anything, its history and attraction makes it unique.
Just my 2 cents.

The excitement about pinball is worldwide.

bumping a 10 month old thread to make a point that the bubble does not exist?

It took you 10 months to formulate a response, and that was the best you could come up with?