In regards to playfield plastics warping, I have installed a lot of vinyl siding over the years. With vinyl siding, you have to leave a gap in the J channel in the corners for the siding to expand and contract with the weather. Plastics don't have any room to expand with screws or posts holding it down. Heat is the cause of the expansion but where is the heat coming from? Incandescents could be causing it but it would likely not be just the one underneath a plastic. It would probably be the combined bulbs of the whole playfield. The heat from the bulbs would be trapped under the glass causing a little hot box and making the plastics expand and warp. The proposed experiment with LEDs on one side and incandescents on the other may not be the correct way to recreate these conditions.
Now I can't account for where my machines have been through the years either. So another cause of warped plastics could be that a game was simply left in a garage or shed in extreme summer heat. That would cause plastics to expand as well.