Pinball Arcade is great for determining if you like a table or not -- it's also great to learn the rules of a table that is on location so that you'll have more fun when you do play the real thing. It's a lot easier, and the only skills that will transfer over to real tables is knowing the rules (which is a huge help actually) and maybe learning to trust dead flipping.

Obviously, if you have 20 pinball machines or are obsessed with real pinball you'll probably be bothered by the difference in physics enough to not like the game, but for most people it captures the fun of pinball really well and it's a lot cheaper. Anyway, I would guess that if you like a pinball machine on PA you'll like it in real life. It worked for me with the Addam's Family. Of course now that I have the real Addam's Family table I can't stand the Pinball Arcade version, but I still enjoy the other tables.