I was in Montreal this past weekend for a tournament. I met a crazy number of people who had only been playing pinball for less than 1 year. They told me that there is a huge following that is growing so large that they are running out of space at the local establishments. The demand is increasing for both private ownership and public recreation. It can probably be evidenced by the growth of these forums as well.
Do we have too few dollars chasing too many new games? I don't think so. If the player-base is increasing, I'd bet that it's probably increasing with players of all ages, and therefore the market at all levels is also growing, new games included.
I think we'll see some NIB games at lower prices soon. Stern sold several Iron Maiden games at less than 6k. I'm sure they would be able to make a very basic EM-looking game for half that. I imagine that someone is going to tap into a market like that which doesn't yet exist, and they'll be successful doing it. Imagine being able to buy a brand new Paragon or Joker Poker? It's just drop targets and spinners, so let's make some games similar to those already!