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(Topic ID: 70193)

Peak Oil! Peak Pinball?

By Aussiepinwiz

6 years ago

Topic Stats

  • 75 posts
  • 39 Pinsiders participating
  • Latest reply 6 years ago by BlackWidow
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    Topic poll

    “When will Peak Pinball be reached?”

    • By 2015 45 votes
    • By 2020 10 votes
    • By 2030 6 votes
    • By 2040 1 vote
    • Sometime between 2050-2099 5 votes
    • Not for at least another century 1 vote
    • Never. The world will completely run out of oil before pinball dies! 21 votes

    (89 votes by 0 Pinsiders)

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    #1 6 years ago

    Peak Oil, according to M. King Hubbert's Hubbert peak theory, is the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline. Global production of oil fell from a high point in 2005 at 74 mb/d, but has since rebounded setting new records in both 2011 and 2012. There is active debate as to when global peak oil will occur, how to measure peak oil, and whether peak oil production will be supply or demand driven. According to the theory, when Peak Oil is reached, the world dramatically changes!

    Peak Pinball is the term I have coined which refers to the next and final downturn in the pinball industry, and specifically the theoretical point in time when the maximum amount of pinballl machines are squeezed into the homes and garages of pinball enthusists world-wide, assuming no reversal in the lack of interest in pinball machines by people who frequent arcades, after which the rate of production of new pinball machines will enter terminal decline.

    Will Peak PInball be realised?
    How close are we to Peak Pinball?

    #3 6 years ago
    Quoted from pinsanity:

    We are in the 'dead cat bounce' phase right now.

    So you think pinball manufacturing has no medium to long-term future?

    #6 6 years ago
    Quoted from teekee:

    Why is 2013 not on your Poll?

    I think that is a reasonable question but a highly unlikely scenario with only a few weeks to go until the end of the year, and with ACDC & Metallica still selling well, enthusiasts being positive about JJ, and Star Trek about to take off (if the LE is a hit) or at worse, from many initial reports, sell in reasonable quantities.

    #7 6 years ago
    Quoted from Wamprat:

    I am unsure?
    How long is a piece of string?

    When will Brisbane homes of a small number of enthusiasts not be able to fit many more pinnies inside them?

    #11 6 years ago
    Quoted from RCA1:

    You should have 1993 as a poll choice.

    Well 1993 was indeed a crucial time but we're looking for the final downturn in pinball machine production after which there will be no upswing: Peak Pinball.

    #12 6 years ago
    Quoted from wayout440:

    I say let the rate of production of new pinball machines enter terminal decline. The inherent value of existing/antique collectable machines will continue to rise.

    It will be a sad, sad day when the terminal decline point, Peak Pinball, is reached. The modern machines are amazing. One can hope that new ground can be broken to see technological advances take pinball to yet another level. But NOTHING lasts forever.

    And yes, you are right, if and when manufacturing dies, the price of existing machines will escalate, just as oil prices hit the roof when shortage fears hit the market.

    #25 6 years ago

    The poll is showing interesting results so far.

    A small majority of Pinsiders believe the industry will reach Peak Pinball by 2015, after which the industry will be in terminal decline. But then next largest group polled believe pinball is here forever!

    Let's see how this pans out with a bit more discussion.

    Quoted from Incognito:

    Dammit! I thought this was a thread announcing JJP 3 pinball "peak oil". I was IN!!

    I suppose it's relevant to whether there will ever be a JJP 3!

    #27 6 years ago
    Quoted from maddog14:

    I love other peoples drama

    It's great isn't it?

    34 votes already, before the first day of polling closes!
    It's clear that Pinsiders are very, very pessimistic about the future of their hobby!

    Is there any hope?
    Are they any possible solutions?
    Are we doomed to accept Peak Pinball within the next few weeks without a fight?

    #29 6 years ago
    Quoted from Pinball-is-great:

    Based on production numbers for flipper pinball,
    would you say that peak pinball was around 1978-1979?
    ...with a total production 2ndary peak occurring around 1992-1993?

    Recent trends and current production numbers of pinball machines does not indicate that we are about to surpass production numbers of '92-'93 or '78-'79 do they?

    The dead cat bounce analogy/comparison is sort of a bummer when you think about it.

    It certainly is a bummer. Quite depressing really.

    But Peak Pinball is the point at which production declines and there is no bounce, no upswing, no hope of the future of pinball. So while the peak of 1978-1979 surpasses the current production levels, since we are currently at a bounce (and theoretically production could keep trending upwards), peak pinball is sometime in the future.

    But when ail the top of the next peak be reached?
    And will there be a bounce after the next decline?

    #32 6 years ago
    Quoted from TheFamilyArcade:

    This is too weird a thread to read first thing in the morning.

    Morning? I'm about to go to bed.
    Have a good day, and come back to this thread later after you've had your cup of coffee!

    #33 6 years ago
    Quoted from wayout440:

    They don't make new model T cars, and that hobby is still around. In fact, there are a lot of antiques that are not produced that are still highly collectable, still with a hobbyist following. This discussion is pointless really, I don't see any death of the pinball hobby.

    Peak Pinball is not the point at which the hobby disappears. It's about when manufacturing of pinball machines takes its final dive, never to recover.

    Yes, pinball machines will be highly sought after for some time to come, especially after peak pinball. The point of this discussion is to work out when peak pinball will be reached, and to then discuss the consequences.

    So far, most Pinsiders polled think peak pinball will be sometime in 2015! If that's true (I'm not saying that it is), what will the industry look like in 2016?

    What will, for example, an ACDC LE be selling for in 2020?
    What will happen to pinball parts suppliers and how long will they continue to manufacture parts?
    Will Stern down-size and be making 1 or 2 machines a year, or close down altogether?
    What will be the title and theme of the last pinball machine to be mass produced for the retail market?

    The pinball hobby is here to stay for a little while longer, but will any manufacturer be around long enough to produce the 40th Anniversary (since his death) Elvis pinball machine in 2017? And if manufacturing of pinnies still has a future, what can be done to push back peak pinball for another decade or two?

    Look into the future Pinsiders.
    What do you see?

    #34 6 years ago

    Poll votes keep trickling in.

    59% of Pinsiders polled think Peak Pinball will be reached by 2015.
    That means, most Pinsiders believe manufacturing of new pinball machines is in deep, deep trouble, and we will see that within the next 18 months or so.

    What will happen then?

    Which manufacturer will feel it first?

    What consequences for the hobby can you see?

    Keep your thoughts trickling in …

    #36 6 years ago
    Quoted from Hobbypinball:

    I think you are making a very incorrect assumption that pinball's only market is the existing one. Think about what happens when China and India gets to a level of disposable income to afford a pin. And no they won't be paying what we're currently paying either. They'll be pumped out in higher volumes and sold for a fraction of the cost. 1.2 billion people in India and 1.3 billion in China. 2.5 billion. I can see both cultures latching onto pinball. As they're cultures and freedoms grow, these are still social cultures - I can see the equivalent of our arcades in the 70's and 80's becoming very popular there. While there will be another dip in pinball in western culture - I don't believe it will die there. Not by a long shot. So our culture might be close to peak pinball - the global market is not. If even .01% of their populations latch on to pinball is still 250,000 pinball machines

    You make a very good point, but …

    I too thought of the increasing prosperity of China and India, but then I realised that people living in these countries do not live in big houses, and they do not usually have garages, and they are not likely to in the future because there simply isn't enough land. The wealthy Chinese of 2025 will be living in 2 bedroom apartments. Where will they put these 250,000 machines? I don't think these countries will rescue the pinball industry because they tend to live in very small apartments, and I cannot see how the arcade business will succeed there despite declining everywhere else.

    Have I missed something that would suggest otherwise?

    #62 6 years ago

    As more Pinsiders vote in the poll fewer Pinsiders consider that Peak Pinball will be reached by 2015.
    But … they are still in the majority!

    Keep the debate going!

    #66 6 years ago
    Quoted from Jags:

    So lets all make sure we keep a real pinball machine in our game room and a real woman in our beds!!

    Many of us will make sure we do so!

    However, while I am very happy with my one real woman, one pinball machine is not enough, but how many more pinnies can I squeeze into my home? What happens to pinball manufacturing if enthusiasts world-wide simply run out of space (or their one woman's permission) to fit any more machines in their garages?

    2 weeks later
    #67 6 years ago

    In the last week we have seen

    1. Lots of good reviews and excitement on Pinside for ST LE.

    2. Breathtaking near-silence from Stern critics

    3. Excitement (understandably from USA Pinsiders in particular) about Mustang.

    Will it make any difference in delaying Peak Pinball?

    2 weeks later
    #70 6 years ago
    Quoted from Hwawonyu:

    I like cars and new pins but out of room and down to the pins I don't want to sell.

    I know a lot of people are in your situation!

    What happens to pinball manufacturing when 1,000 other enthusiasts also run out of room in the coming years?
    Will there be enough new enthusiasts joining their ranks to buy the new pins?

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