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(Topic ID: 70193)

Peak Oil! Peak Pinball?


By Aussiepinwiz

6 years ago



Topic Stats

  • 75 posts
  • 39 Pinsiders participating
  • Latest reply 6 years ago by BlackWidow
  • No one calls this topic a favorite

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    Topic poll

    “When will Peak Pinball be reached?”

    • By 2015 45 votes
      51%
    • By 2020 10 votes
      11%
    • By 2030 6 votes
      7%
    • By 2040 1 vote
      1%
    • Sometime between 2050-2099 5 votes
      6%
    • Not for at least another century 1 vote
      1%
    • Never. The world will completely run out of oil before pinball dies! 21 votes
      24%

    (89 votes by 0 Pinsiders)

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    There are 75 posts in this topic. You are on page 1 of 2.
    -1
    #1 6 years ago

    Peak Oil, according to M. King Hubbert's Hubbert peak theory, is the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline. Global production of oil fell from a high point in 2005 at 74 mb/d, but has since rebounded setting new records in both 2011 and 2012. There is active debate as to when global peak oil will occur, how to measure peak oil, and whether peak oil production will be supply or demand driven. According to the theory, when Peak Oil is reached, the world dramatically changes!

    Peak Pinball is the term I have coined which refers to the next and final downturn in the pinball industry, and specifically the theoretical point in time when the maximum amount of pinballl machines are squeezed into the homes and garages of pinball enthusists world-wide, assuming no reversal in the lack of interest in pinball machines by people who frequent arcades, after which the rate of production of new pinball machines will enter terminal decline.

    Will Peak PInball be realised?
    How close are we to Peak Pinball?

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    -1
    #2 6 years ago

    We are in the 'dead cat bounce' phase right now.

    -1
    #3 6 years ago
    Quoted from pinsanity:

    We are in the 'dead cat bounce' phase right now.

    So you think pinball manufacturing has no medium to long-term future?

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    #4 6 years ago

    Why is 2013 not on your Poll?

    #5 6 years ago

    I am unsure?
    How long is a piece of string?

    -1
    #6 6 years ago
    Quoted from teekee:

    Why is 2013 not on your Poll?

    I think that is a reasonable question but a highly unlikely scenario with only a few weeks to go until the end of the year, and with ACDC & Metallica still selling well, enthusiasts being positive about JJ, and Star Trek about to take off (if the LE is a hit) or at worse, from many initial reports, sell in reasonable quantities.

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    #7 6 years ago
    Quoted from Wamprat:

    I am unsure?
    How long is a piece of string?

    When will Brisbane homes of a small number of enthusiasts not be able to fit many more pinnies inside them?

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    #8 6 years ago
    Quoted from Aussiepinwiz:

    When will Brisbane homes of a small number of enthusiasts not be able to fit many more pinnies inside them?

    images-12.jpeg 5 KB

    I have always had that problem, I live in a small house.

    #9 6 years ago

    You should have 1993 as a poll choice.

    #10 6 years ago

    New pinballs are a fraction of the small niche hobby of pinball today. I say let the rate of production of new pinball machines enter terminal decline. The inherent value of existing/antique collectable machines will continue to rise.
    Keep producing and the value gets bashed, just like the comic books industry. Within the past few decades as the number of titles and editions available outstripped collector demand -- leaving old 10-cent titles with the most inherent value.
    Also, there's always new space for pins, many stacked in a shed or warehouse. System 11s preferably.

    #11 6 years ago
    Quoted from RCA1:

    You should have 1993 as a poll choice.

    Well 1993 was indeed a crucial time but we're looking for the final downturn in pinball machine production after which there will be no upswing: Peak Pinball.

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    #12 6 years ago
    Quoted from wayout440:

    I say let the rate of production of new pinball machines enter terminal decline. The inherent value of existing/antique collectable machines will continue to rise.

    It will be a sad, sad day when the terminal decline point, Peak Pinball, is reached. The modern machines are amazing. One can hope that new ground can be broken to see technological advances take pinball to yet another level. But NOTHING lasts forever.

    And yes, you are right, if and when manufacturing dies, the price of existing machines will escalate, just as oil prices hit the roof when shortage fears hit the market.

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    #13 6 years ago

    Price, space and peak of new folks has been realized. Add to that a bunch of new machines all hitting the same time in 2014 and its here.
    Besides new folks there was a certain allure of new machines that fanned the old guard from LCD in WOZ and Sterns releases. That has worn off as well adding to less steam in the engine.
    The last big push was the remakes and MM flew out of the gate but even the 1000 sold out issue has come back down to earth. We have over a 1000 WOZ and then 1000 MMs that will be in homes and as usual a percent will go "not what my dreams were" and want to move those.
    Tons of games about to be sitting around.
    2014 is a great year to have your collection where you want and to just play and enjoy.

    #14 6 years ago

    I would expect we'll be fine for a few years. If you compare this rise in pinball with the resurrection in the mid 80's with space shuttle and high speed, then again in the mid 90's with TAF and the rise of the other manufacturers like Sega and Capcom, both bubbles lasted about 5 years and died for 5 years. The difference in the late 90's/2000's was the death of the arcades as well which prolonged the downturn beyond 'normal' and it lasted until, I would say, 2010-11 ish? It wasn't until after Tron that I recall NIB prices pulling a steep upward climb.

    If you apply the roughly 5 year 'boom' cycle to it, we're looking good until 2015-2016. I expect we will see pricing become more competitive by mid 2015, and by end of 2016 I would expect we will lose at least one of the big manufacturers (Stern, JJP, PPS) not necessarily to failure, just to less money in the market.

    Where I think there will be money available is for any of the really high quality small-run machines. People making 1-50 machines based on very popular layouts or themes (along the lines of the Matrix machine, but maybe/maybe not licensed - think JPop or Predator type games) will probably still sell for a big dollar amount as the rarity and uniqueness will offset the cost for the right person.

    #15 6 years ago

    2014 is the answer with the glut of new and remake games coming and the prices being too high for the market to support.

    #16 6 years ago

    I think Stern ,JJP ect are very aware that pinball is in a huge bubble at the moment and are pushing for max profit . They are producing great products that us pinheads are willing to pay for NIB ( and we are enjoying them ) They are also smart enough to know it won't last for too long ,so they are feeding the frenzy with good product .

    This is great for all concerned ( stern makes cash , spends on R&D ) and we are getting big numbers of new pins into the market . What's also great is these pins will be added to the second hand market in the near future .

    So we have a fairly small number of home player/collectors who have limited space /budget , thus the influx of newer pins is added to the growing used pool of pins . We will get to a point soon when most will have to sell pin Y+Z to purchase Pin A + B

    Add to the mix we don't see any large numbers of younger or older people having any interest in owning a pin let alone a collection . Sure they will play them but from my experience they don't want to purchase pins ( Pins are big , heavy ect )

    So we are going to have this huge flood of used pins in the near future on the second hand market . This is going to put Stern / JJP in a position of having to compete with this used flood , they will have to innovate and or reduce costs to entice buyers . In theory we should see cheaper prices across the board .

    Enter The new Bally/Williams remakes and we are in for some interesting times . They are going to suck big big money that would otherwise be in for used pins or Stern NIB's .

    When the bubble pops is hard to say ( I'm guessing in 2 years )

    #17 6 years ago

    I believe in abiotic oil and as such will also predict that peak pinball happened in the mid 90s and the current trend's peak cannot be predicted because the market of buyers is changing in an unpredictable way. When people are paying $400 for a PS4 and then buying a bunch of expensive games to play on it, it shows that people are willing to pay large amounts on entertainment items. This has always been the case in good economic times and bad.

    Your real question is whether or not pinball is and will remain competitive for those entertainment dollars (and whether entertainment dollars will increase or decrease to a lesser extent).

    #18 6 years ago
    Quoted from Aussiepinwiz:

    That's potentially going to destroy the industry

    You nailed it. The surge fueled prices and then how many new pinballs? Predator, WOZ, Spooky, RAZA, Nemo and Stern with 2 in the line and now remakes by PPS. You can bet that's going to be an issue really soon.
    Pre orders have now sucked the dollars out of the secondary market. Its already a huge issue.

    Quoted from criss:

    When the bubble pops is hard to say ( I'm guessing in 3 to 4 years )

    I bet way sooner. Based on the current situation I think this time next year pinside will be better than general hospital ever was.

    #19 6 years ago
    Quoted from Hwawonyu:

    You nailed it. The surge fueled prices and then how many new pinballs? Predator, WOZ, Spooky, RAZA, Nemo and Stern with 2 in the line and now remakes by PPS. You can bet that's going to be an issue really soon.
    Pre orders have now sucked the dollars out of the secondary market. Its already a huge issue.

    I bet way sooner. Based on the current situation I think this time next year pinside will be better than general hospital ever was.

    Yes I did nt think of the current pre orders pulling lots of cash from the market , ill change my guess to 2 years .

    Thunderbirds pinball is also on pre order ( 1000 units ) so add that to the growing list of new titles all jockeying for the available funds .

    #20 6 years ago
    Quoted from DCFAN:

    2014 is the answer with the glut of new and remake games coming.

    My take is that JJP and PPS will be very short term players in the market. No offense against either of them but they both are dependent on 8k+ price points for their products. Once they have sold, or fleeced, the guys with that kind of money to spend they won't be able to drop back down to a more reasonable price and be able to stay profitable. Stern is smart in that they are dipping their toes into both pools, even if the economy tanks they may be able to survive on their "Pro" pricing model.

    #21 6 years ago
    Quoted from viper001:

    My take is that JJP and PPS will be very short term players in the market. No offense against either of them but they both are dependent on 8k+ price points for their products. Once they have sold, or fleeced, the guys with that kind of money to spend they won't be able to drop back down to a more reasonable price and be able to stay profitable. Stern is smart in that they are dipping their toes into both pools, even if the economy tanks they may be able to survive on their "Pro" pricing model.

    I agree 100% , what ever people say about stern they are smart players and will likely be the last man standing .

    I'm quite shocked that JJP was not smart enough or did nt want to produce a sub $5K version to capture that market . Drop the LCD add a DMD ,drop the cab clear ect ect .

    #22 6 years ago
    Quoted from criss:

    We will get to a point soon when most will have to sell pin Y+Z to purchase Pin A + B

    I think from a hobbiest persepctive the 'sell 1 to buy 1' mentality exists in all niches. Cars, boats, snowmobiles, RC, pinball, etc... the number of people that have dozens of pinballs are few much like people who collect dozens of cars. And they don't usually sell any because they have the space and funds for it, but all these hobbys still exist today despite ebbs and flows in the market.

    10-20-30 years ago the market was operators, and the focus was making money thru the general public. Today's sustainable market is the hobbiest/collector segment which I don't see fading away if the bubble bursts... in fact it would potentially grow thru the secondary market. I personally have no intention of ever leaving the hobby, and I'll always be interested in the next NIB purchase, but I doubt 5k pro models will sell in the quantities they are today as I will be looking at used machines for my deals.

    I still do think a 100-200 machine run of something like big lebowski or spaceballs would always fetch a premium though due to the hobbiest appeal. Like all the Sideshow collectable and First 4 Figures stuff - limit the quantities and deliver a product a select few REALLY like and you can charge a premium regardless of how popular the overall industry is at the time.

    #23 6 years ago

    Dammit! I thought this was a thread announcing JJP 3 pinball "peak oil". I was IN!!

    #24 6 years ago
    Quoted from Hwawonyu:

    You nailed it. The surge fueled prices and then how many new pinballs? Predator, WOZ, Spooky, RAZA, Nemo and Stern with 2 in the line and now remakes by PPS. You can bet that's going to be an issue really soon.
    Pre orders have now sucked the dollars out of the secondary market. Its already a huge issue.

    Yep. Supply and demand. And here comes the influx of supply.

    #25 6 years ago

    The poll is showing interesting results so far.

    A small majority of Pinsiders believe the industry will reach Peak Pinball by 2015, after which the industry will be in terminal decline. But then next largest group polled believe pinball is here forever!

    Let's see how this pans out with a bit more discussion.

    Quoted from Incognito:

    Dammit! I thought this was a thread announcing JJP 3 pinball "peak oil". I was IN!!

    I suppose it's relevant to whether there will ever be a JJP 3!

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    #26 6 years ago
    Quoted from Hwawonyu:

    I bet way sooner. Based on the current situation I think this time next year pinside will be better than general hospital ever was.

    I love other peoples drama

    #27 6 years ago
    Quoted from maddog14:

    I love other peoples drama

    It's great isn't it?

    34 votes already, before the first day of polling closes!
    It's clear that Pinsiders are very, very pessimistic about the future of their hobby!

    Is there any hope?
    Are they any possible solutions?
    Are we doomed to accept Peak Pinball within the next few weeks without a fight?

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    #28 6 years ago

    Based on production numbers for flipper pinball,
    would you say that peak pinball was around 1978-1979?
    ...with a total production 2ndary peak occurring around 1992-1993?

    Recent trends and current production numbers of pinball machines does not indicate that we are about to surpass production numbers of '92-'93 or '78-'79 do they?

    The dead cat bounce analogy/comparison is sort of a bummer when you think about it.

    #29 6 years ago
    Quoted from Pinball-is-great:

    Based on production numbers for flipper pinball,
    would you say that peak pinball was around 1978-1979?
    ...with a total production 2ndary peak occurring around 1992-1993?

    Recent trends and current production numbers of pinball machines does not indicate that we are about to surpass production numbers of '92-'93 or '78-'79 do they?

    The dead cat bounce analogy/comparison is sort of a bummer when you think about it.

    It certainly is a bummer. Quite depressing really.

    But Peak Pinball is the point at which production declines and there is no bounce, no upswing, no hope of the future of pinball. So while the peak of 1978-1979 surpasses the current production levels, since we are currently at a bounce (and theoretically production could keep trending upwards), peak pinball is sometime in the future.

    But when ail the top of the next peak be reached?
    And will there be a bounce after the next decline?

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    #30 6 years ago

    This is too weird a thread to read first thing in the morning.

    #31 6 years ago

    Hmmm. They don't make new model T cars, and that hobby is still around. In fact, there are a lot of antiques that are not produced that are still highly collectable, still with a hobbyist following. This discussion is pointless really, I don't see any death of the pinball hobby.

    #32 6 years ago
    Quoted from TheFamilyArcade:

    This is too weird a thread to read first thing in the morning.

    Morning? I'm about to go to bed.
    Have a good day, and come back to this thread later after you've had your cup of coffee!

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    #33 6 years ago
    Quoted from wayout440:

    They don't make new model T cars, and that hobby is still around. In fact, there are a lot of antiques that are not produced that are still highly collectable, still with a hobbyist following. This discussion is pointless really, I don't see any death of the pinball hobby.

    Peak Pinball is not the point at which the hobby disappears. It's about when manufacturing of pinball machines takes its final dive, never to recover.

    Yes, pinball machines will be highly sought after for some time to come, especially after peak pinball. The point of this discussion is to work out when peak pinball will be reached, and to then discuss the consequences.

    So far, most Pinsiders polled think peak pinball will be sometime in 2015! If that's true (I'm not saying that it is), what will the industry look like in 2016?

    What will, for example, an ACDC LE be selling for in 2020?
    What will happen to pinball parts suppliers and how long will they continue to manufacture parts?
    Will Stern down-size and be making 1 or 2 machines a year, or close down altogether?
    What will be the title and theme of the last pinball machine to be mass produced for the retail market?

    The pinball hobby is here to stay for a little while longer, but will any manufacturer be around long enough to produce the 40th Anniversary (since his death) Elvis pinball machine in 2017? And if manufacturing of pinnies still has a future, what can be done to push back peak pinball for another decade or two?

    Look into the future Pinsiders.
    What do you see?

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    #34 6 years ago

    Poll votes keep trickling in.

    59% of Pinsiders polled think Peak Pinball will be reached by 2015.
    That means, most Pinsiders believe manufacturing of new pinball machines is in deep, deep trouble, and we will see that within the next 18 months or so.

    What will happen then?

    Which manufacturer will feel it first?

    What consequences for the hobby can you see?

    Keep your thoughts trickling in …

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    #35 6 years ago

    I think you are making a very incorrect assumption that pinball's only market is the existing one. Think about what happens when China and India gets to a level of disposable income to afford a pin. And no they won't be paying what we're currently paying either. They'll be pumped out in higher volumes and sold for a fraction of the cost. 1.2 billion people in India and 1.3 billion in China. 2.5 billion. I can see both cultures latching onto pinball. As they're cultures and freedoms grow, these are still social cultures - I can see the equivalent of our arcades in the 70's and 80's becoming very popular there. While there will be another dip in pinball in western culture - I don't believe it will die there. Not by a long shot. So our culture might be close to peak pinball - the global market is not. If even .01% of their populations latch on to pinball is still 250,000 pinball machines

    #36 6 years ago
    Quoted from Hobbypinball:

    I think you are making a very incorrect assumption that pinball's only market is the existing one. Think about what happens when China and India gets to a level of disposable income to afford a pin. And no they won't be paying what we're currently paying either. They'll be pumped out in higher volumes and sold for a fraction of the cost. 1.2 billion people in India and 1.3 billion in China. 2.5 billion. I can see both cultures latching onto pinball. As they're cultures and freedoms grow, these are still social cultures - I can see the equivalent of our arcades in the 70's and 80's becoming very popular there. While there will be another dip in pinball in western culture - I don't believe it will die there. Not by a long shot. So our culture might be close to peak pinball - the global market is not. If even .01% of their populations latch on to pinball is still 250,000 pinball machines

    You make a very good point, but …

    I too thought of the increasing prosperity of China and India, but then I realised that people living in these countries do not live in big houses, and they do not usually have garages, and they are not likely to in the future because there simply isn't enough land. The wealthy Chinese of 2025 will be living in 2 bedroom apartments. Where will they put these 250,000 machines? I don't think these countries will rescue the pinball industry because they tend to live in very small apartments, and I cannot see how the arcade business will succeed there despite declining everywhere else.

    Have I missed something that would suggest otherwise?

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    #37 6 years ago

    Agree, an 80 screen in the wall and ps4 but a huge box , probably not.

    #38 6 years ago

    At this point you might as well start a peak oil thread on when your peak oil pinball thread will reach it's peak oil point.

    #39 6 years ago
    Quoted from Aussiepinwiz:

    You make a very good point, but …
    I too thought of the increasing prosperity of China and India, but then I realised that people living in these countries do not live in big houses, and they do not usually have garages, and they are not likely to in the future because there simply isn't enough land. The wealthy Chinese of 2025 will be living in 2 bedroom apartments. Where will they put these 250,000 machines? I don't think these countries will rescue the pinball industry because they tend to live in very small apartments, and I cannot see how the arcade business will succeed there despite declining everywhere else.
    Have I missed something that would suggest otherwise?

    ya - the equivalent of our arcade from the 70's and 80's. That's where the machines go and not in the homes.

    #40 6 years ago
    Quoted from sammiesguys:

    At this point you might as well start a peak oil thread on when your peak oil pinball thread will reach it's peak oil point.

    IMO it was the moment the first "dead cat bounce" image was posted. Can we get a poll up to settle this?

    #41 6 years ago

    I predict peak pinball will happen somewhere in between peak Twister and peak Chess.

    #42 6 years ago

    I like twin peaks

    #43 6 years ago

    If there was going to be a bounce it happened in the 90's in terms of the numerical numbers. Other wise its a meh market from 99 - 09 then a swing up period 09 - now.... How long will the up swing go who knows but its not a dead cat bounce.

    #44 6 years ago
    Quoted from Hobbypinball:

    ya - the equivalent of our arcade from the 70's and 80's. That's where the machines go and not in the homes.

    Arcades there are high tech. No place for pinball...
    srg2.jpg

    #45 6 years ago
    Quoted from wayout440:

    Arcades there are high tech. No place for pinball...

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    get those girls some sammiches. stat!

    #46 6 years ago
    Quoted from wayout440:

    Arcades there are high tech. No place for pinball...

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    I want to go to there......

    #47 6 years ago

    The answer is March 13, 2023 4:51 p.m est, go ahead and close the thread now

    #49 6 years ago

    Peak Pinball will occur at the same time as Peak Oil.....along with every other hobby.

    #50 6 years ago

    Pinball is being fed mostly by nostalgia. Unfortunately that means that eventually there will be a time where the people who grew up on high-energy pinball (80s/90s) eventually are not collecting because they're retired or dead. I think you see that even with the EM market now. EM pinballs command a much lower price because the population who grew up on them are aging out of the hobby.

    I'm enjoying the games that are coming out now, and it's certainly nice that I'll get to play more new games. But I'm not under any illusions that pinball will last forever. Entertainment is in the home on portable devices and available very cheaply. Adults in 30 years will collect antiquated iPads and not pinball machines.

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