Ransom high prices? For LOTR? I bought and sold 2 super nice HUO LOTR's in the last year right around the $5k mark (one just under $5k one just over $5k). Not sure if I'd classify that as ransom high prices.

Some WOZ LE owners have most definitely complained about that. The fanboys, not so much.

Got ya.

I think the OP was talking more about LOTR.

Nah, no worries, I understand what you were saying. Other than that confusion (re LOTR), it was a well written post with great points.

Like I've said before, I don't consider you a fanboy.

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I'm with Snaroff on this one. No, we certainly haven't seen anything remotely like a market crash, but I definitely think that pins do not sell nearly as easily as they did a year ago. Not only do they take longer to sell, they seem to be selling for less. Of course we don't usually know what the final sales price is, but when you see pins listed for awhile and the price continuing to be dropped, you can often guess the sales price.

Another barometer is to watch the guys who flip pins. Keep track of their ebay listings. They are not listing nearly as many pins for sale, and again, they are taking longer to sell. A lot longer in many cases.

Again, it isn't anything drastic by any stretch. Not even remotely close to a market crash. But there are definitely signs of a weakening used pin market, and with more new pins being made and sold (some of them at $8k) like WOZ, Hobbit, and MMr, and additional remakes of B/W titles from PPS, and Vault editions from Stern, and more offerings from the small guys like Spooky and the Predator guys, and TBL, and Timeshock, and P3, and yes, even JPop, (not to mention Stern's next title...which may be TWD which will get a lot of sales), I don't think it is remotely unreasonable to talk about the potential for over saturation of the pinball market, which can lead to (much) lower prices.

Of course there will be plenty of people who think that much lower prices for pins across the board is nothing but a positive thing, but that's not the case. There are plenty of people who won't be able to afford (or not willing to accept) these new $8k pins if they can't sell their current pin(s) without taking a huge hit. That means less sales of the new pins, which in theory would not be good for the pinball community.

Whether there is enough demand (new people coming into the hobby?) to absorb all this new inventory is going to be interesting to see. But it seems to me that something's gotta give.

And that is completely consistent with a post I made yesterday about the potential for a Vault edition of LOTR: I bought and sold two really nice HUO LOTR's right at the $5k mark (one a few hundred below $5k one a few hundred over). This isn't unusual. $5k for a nice HUO LOTR seems to have been the going rate for awhile now. If anything, I'd think the value is/has gone down a bit, like the rest of the market.

One local, one was shipped.

I agree.

But I think MMr might just be the starting point for lower prices.

The question I have is where are we going to be in a year or two from now? Like I said in my earlier post, with more new pins being made and sold (some of them at $8k) like WOZ, Hobbit, and MMr, and additional remakes of B/W titles from PPS, and Vault editions from Stern, and more offerings from the small guys like Spooky and the Predator guys, and TBL, and Timeshock, and P3, and yes, even JPop, (not to mention Stern's next title...which may be TWD which will get a lot of sales), I don't think it is remotely unreasonable to talk about the potential for over saturation of the pinball market, and potentially much lower prices, as there are plenty of people who won't be able to afford (or not willing to accept) these new $8k pins if they can't sell their current pin(s) without taking a huge hit.

No, that's not what I was saying. My point was that if prices did drop precipitously, meaning someone who paid $5.5k for a LOTR now has to sell it at $3.5k (a price that LOTR used to sell at all day long), it could have a snowball effect on NIB market as a lot of those people will just keep the pin instead of trading it in on a NIB.

The $5.5k vs $5k is not significant at all. Obviously.

Exactly.

Huh?

How many people over the last few years bought an LE for the sole reason that they thought they were going to be able to flip it for a profit? Pins like Tron LE, BIB LE, and even MET LE (early on) gave a lot of people the impression that there was money to be made by "getting in" on the new LE release. I think plenty of LE sales went to people who bought them simply because they thought they were going to make money and had very little risk of losing money.

Luckily it appears that that model is disappearing, in part due to the fact that pins like STLE weren't so "limited" with 800 being made etc

The truth is that we have no idea how many STLE's even sold. While there were a lot of early reports saying that Stern had sold them all, it appears that may not have been accurate.

Anyone can buy a nib STLE if they wanted to. No idea why anyone would though, with HUO prices being as low as they are.

But yeah, I think STLE was another lesson for the flippers in terms of knowing that they aren't going to be making money on the LE model very often. Of course the smart flippers already knew this, based on the fact that they were making 800 of them to begin with.

Me too. One of the best looking pins from Stern ever! Too bad the gameplay didn't hold up to the blingy bling for me.

Yep, it sure does. Stern got paid. It's sold!

But I don't think Stern ever sold all 799 of them.

Absolutely. I never said that people don't do exactly that. I said I don't know why they would!

Actually I honestly don't know why I do that! Yes, it's always fun to get a nice, shiny new toy. It just isn't the "smart" thing to do! NIB pins that I pre-ordered before playing have not worked out well for me. X-Men and STLE were let downs (the former much more than the latter). I'm learning my lesson though. No more pre-orders for me.

I'm very interested in The Hobbit. TWD would be awesome! I won't pre-order either of them, or anything else. Plenty of other people are taking this approach now who used to pre-order pins on a regular basis.

Star Trek's gameplay has yet to be set in stone. You bailed before the update. Time will tell.

Agreed, not set in stone. But while new code can certainly help, it's never going to be completely different than the base of it is now. It's always going to have those 18 modes which is the heart of the pin. Just not for me.

Fail.

Wait.

PacDork is you?? Holy crap. How did I not know this?

The IM video is the best one out there on how to play the pin! That's really good stuff Greg. I know it's time consuming, but you should really keep doing those. They are really helpful.

Hmm...I would think the Mac would be even easier. Just import the video to iMovie.

Kind of cool thinking about the fact that IM video was shot 3 years ago...and you just got another NIB IM!

Couldn't agree more.

I really think that Robin needs to look at this ridiculous policy of having threads closed just because the OP asks for it to be closed. Actually I'm not even sure if it is a "policy" or just something that the mods do on their own?

It's just as much speculation to say that they sold all 799 as it is to say that they didn't!

I think a lot of what he has said with regard to the market is valid. Whether that is a "concern" is probably what most people take issue with. I.e., most people in this thread appear to think a market downturn is a good thing.

Quoted for posterity.

You are really something else. Truly unbelievable.

And just to set the record straight: I absolutely did not report your stupid post to a moderator!

All because I posted a rolling eyes emoticon. lol

You have no idea what you are talking about. As usual.

If the mods protect me as you claim, can you please tell them to un-ban me from the thread that I got permanently kicked out of yesterday?

You are one of the most pompous people here. Funny that you accuse me of insults towards others, but that is exactly what you did in the post that I responded to.

Says the guy who said "F you Rob" because I posted a rolling eyes emoticon!

I see PinballHelp has edited his post to remove the "F you Rob" and the "and F whatever moderator you reported it to" from his post.

Which is why I quoted it to begin with.

Overreact much?