(Topic ID: 246645)

NIB retaining value


By dnapac

11 months ago



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  • 66 posts
  • 39 Pinsiders participating
  • Latest reply 11 months ago by Tomass
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    There are 66 posts in this topic. You are on page 1 of 2.
    #1 11 months ago

    I know...pinballs are not investments, and I don’t see them as such. But, I have noticed that the newer NIB Sterns seem to loose value quicker than the other companies pins (Spooky, CGC, JJP, American Pinball). Is this due to Stern making so many pins? If deeproot really follows through, will their pins second market value plummet? Has Stern reached saturation value with second market newer pins?

    17
    #2 11 months ago
    Quoted from dnapac:

    I know...pinballs are not investments, and I don’t see them as such. But, I have noticed that the newer NIB Sterns seem to loose value quicker than the other companies pins (Spooky, CGC, JJP, American Pinball). Is this due to Stern making so many pins? If deeproot really follows through, will their pins second market value plummet? Has Stern reached saturation value with second market newer pins?

    Yup the spooky rob zombies are holding their value really well.
    JJP hobbits are doing great too.

    #3 11 months ago

    The market is saturated with an abundance newer pins. Supply is up, and demand is being met no problem.

    Quoted from dnapac:

    If deeproot really follows through, will their pins second market value plummet?

    Without seeing any games yet there's no way to tell. But, it's probably safe to assume there will be a price drop on on secondary market, unless production numbers are limited and the games are highly desirable (ie, low supply high demand).

    #4 11 months ago

    To answer your question, within 6 months pins will be worth pennies on the 2019 dollar, especially sterns!

    For lack of a better turn of phrase, the bubble is guaranteed to soon burst!

    #5 11 months ago

    Every new pin will lose value unless it winds up being rare or they stop producing them. Example: TBL, Alien, JJP POTC, etc.

    Spooky pins are selling for $1000 or more less than the cost- example I just sold a TNA for $4700 that originally cost $6000.

    American Pinball Houdini is selling for $5000 range when it cost $6500-7000

    CGC pins seem to hold their value a little better, but they are also top pins that everyone wants to own

    #6 11 months ago

    Most NIB games lose value it's normal in my opinion some just lose more value than others.

    #7 11 months ago
    Quoted from Coz:

    I just sold a TNA for $4700 that originally cost $6000

    Hmmmmm. Good to know. Pinside sellers must be inflating their prices.

    #8 11 months ago
    Quoted from dnapac:

    Hmmmmm. Good to know. Pinside sellers must be inflating their prices.

    Well, to be fair, most TNAs for sale are home use only and very low plays. My TNA was on location and while still looking like new, it was routed. So expect to pay a premium for low plays.

    #9 11 months ago
    Quoted from dnapac:

    I know...pinballs are not investments, and I don’t see them as such. But, I have noticed that the newer NIB Sterns seem to loose value quicker than the other companies pins (Spooky, CGC, JJP, American Pinball). Is this due to Stern making so many pins? If deeproot really follows through, will their pins second market value plummet? Has Stern reached saturation value with second market newer pins?

    I don't think pins from those makers hold their value any better than Sterns.

    Best bet to minimize your losses on NIB is to stick with Stern Pros and CGC Classic Editions. Those are well-built, economical and operator friendly pins.

    #10 11 months ago
    Quoted from NorCalRealtor:

    I don't think pins from those makers hold their value any better than Sterns.
    Best bet to minimize your losses on NIB is to stick with Stern Pros and CGC Classic Editions. Those are well-built, economical and operator friendly pins.

    Agreed on the value of the pros, but again, not an investment, just an observation...and a question on the future direction of used pins.

    #11 11 months ago
    Quoted from Mitch:

    JJP hobbits are doing great too.

    You kidding Clark?

    #12 11 months ago

    Sorry? Is this question “do NIB pins retain their value?” The answer is NO. Next question.

    15
    #13 11 months ago

    YOU WILL LOSE MONEY ON A NIB PIN FROM ANY MANUFACTURER IN THE CURRENT MARKET.

    #14 11 months ago
    Quoted from Rdoyle1978:

    Sorry? Is this question “do NIB pins retain their value?” The answer is NO. Next question.

    No. This is a relative question to the manufacturer.

    #15 11 months ago

    In just about every market items can be found cheaper on the secondary market.

    It’s simple really, why would someone pay the full price for a used item they can still acquire new? Hence a used pin is going to sell for less than one that’s brand new from a distributor. If it wasn’t cheaper, people would just buy the brand new pin.

    #16 11 months ago

    Missing the point. I am asking manufacturer compared to other manufacturer...and their amount of production. Not merely NIB to used across all manufacturers.

    #17 11 months ago
    Quoted from dnapac:

    Missing the point. I am asking manufacturer compared to other manufacturer...and their amount of production. Not merely NIB to used across all manufacturers.

    In that case I think it depends on the popularity of the game and is not specific to manufacturer.

    #18 11 months ago

    Some quick research would have shown you how misinformed your post was...

    You can buy my rz for 6k cuz it’s doing so well on resale

    #19 11 months ago
    Quoted from dnapac:

    Missing the point. I am asking manufacturer compared to other manufacturer...and their amount of production. Not merely NIB to used across all manufacturers.

    We are definitely all missing your point.

    You know none of us can see the future right?

    #20 11 months ago

    I looked at the prices (although quickly) on pinside. Just an observation on these prices from other people. Merely a question...doesn’t need to be so controversial.

    #21 11 months ago

    I think another factor is how much time between releases. Some people like to be the first to own something. But then something new comes out and they need to sell to fund the next shiny thing. So its not only title related, its probably timing related.

    No offence intended to NIB buyers. But if i ever decide to buy a NIB stern i’ll just wait three months after it gets released lol. They will still look the same.

    -7
    #22 11 months ago

    This is one of the stupidest posts in a while. The kind of stuff I’d expect from a new collector. My head hurts.

    #23 11 months ago
    Quoted from extraballingtmc:

    This is one of the stupidest posts in a while. The kind of stuff I’d expect from a new collector. My head hurts.

    Sorry to offend. Let those who are above interject. I do miss the old pinside...the one that loved pinball...and not the one that tore it down...and all that loved it. I now understand those old school that loved it/made it. If there is anymore nastiness, I will report to the moderators and deactivate. Not worth the drama.

    #24 11 months ago
    Quoted from dnapac:

    ...Is this due to Stern making so many pins?

    Yes

    Quoted from dnapac:

    If deeproot...

    Shut up

    #26 11 months ago
    Quoted from extraballingtmc:

    This is one of the stupidest posts in a while

    Can’t be any worse than mine...but I think nib pins are a decent investment.
    For example, I bought a $5k mattress, 8 years and 2 kids later I was only expecting to lose a grand or so....Nope!
    Had to pay to have it hauled away.

    #27 11 months ago

    These are big boy toys, and there is no such thing as a truly limited edition.

    Expect to lose money, just like you would on any other consumable.

    Buy, older, rare games at the right price if you want investments...

    #28 11 months ago
    Quoted from Shapeshifter:

    Buy, older, rare games at the right price if you want investments...

    Keep in mind, a few of those were remade and the price on the originals dropped a bit

    #29 11 months ago

    Let’s switch to the good ol’ cargument analogy.

    Dose a Ferrari retain its value more then a Porsche? I’d assume that it would depend on the model not the manufacturer.

    Will a Ferrari be worth more on the secondary market then a ford? Absolutely.

    If Tesla starts producing as nice, and as many cars as those three manufacturers, will they collapse the resale market? Maybe, I doubt it.

    #30 11 months ago

    There has always been a NIB tax. It was a few hundred bucks to open that box. As Stern raised the roof on prices (yes, Stern raised Stern’s prices, not JJP), the secondary market wouldn’t support that level. So now the NIB tax can be over a grand on a new Pro. Sure, some of them are less, but the hit is much larger than it used to be. In the past, I would have already bought a Deadpool NIB. Now, I’m just waiting for a nice HUO for a lot less money.

    That’s called a self fulfilling prophecy. I won’t buy NIB because I don’t want to take the huge hit, so there are less HUO games later.

    And hey, real life example. My AC/DC VE Pro. My NIB hit on that would be about $500 if I sold it today. However, if I bought the exact same game NIB today, the hit would be over $1300. What is that, 2 years old? There is the problem.

    #31 11 months ago
    Quoted from DaveH:

    There has always been a NIB tax

    When I bought my GoT, my assumption was that immediately it would loose a grand off the price. And I’m ok with that.

    #32 11 months ago

    I would never Buy a used spike pin.
    I think most pins loose value, with Stern loosing the most.

    #33 11 months ago

    Stern pros are often routed, and I bet most ops don't pay full retail for new games. Also ops make money off coin drop and can write off depreciation. So it wouldn't be surprising to me if games that are geared towards the operator market take a bigger hit than collector-oriented or higher-maintenance games. Of course collectors also tend to be less patient and more likely to panic sell when the need for cash arises or the next shiny new thing comes out. So who knows...

    #34 11 months ago
    Quoted from dnapac:

    I am asking manufacturer compared to other manufacturer...and their amount of production. Not merely NIB to used across all manufacturers.

    Then you’ve already had the definitive answer:

    Quoted from NorCalRealtor:

    Best bet to minimize your losses on NIB is to stick with Stern Pros and CGC Classic Editions. Those are well-built, economical and operator friendly pins.

    #35 11 months ago
    Quoted from Dr-pin:

    I think most pins loose value, with Stern loosing the most.

    Getting my grammar police hat on. Seeing this more and more and getting to pet peeve status. Both the OP and here....

    LOOSE is generally an adjective and means not tight. “The loose wire caused an intermittent short.” LOSE is a verb and essentially means to not win. “You lose.” Or “Bad pinball machines lose value faster than good machines.”

    Loose as a verb might be “Loose cougars on the prowl attacking men at the barcade.” That might be both a verb and an adjective.

    #36 11 months ago

    When I buy a game, I factor in a $1.00 per play depreciation because that is what it would cost me to drive to any location and play. Mind you the experience would be a great deal inferior given the weak flippers, poor sound and broken mechs I would have to deal with. From a cost and enjoyment perspective buying pinball machines has been the best hobby I have ever participated in.

    #37 11 months ago
    Quoted from Dr-pin:

    I would never Buy a used spike pin.
    I think most pins loose value, with Stern loosing the most.

    Loose as a goose. But it’s gotta be tight to be right.

    #38 11 months ago
    Quoted from holminone:

    Loose as a verb might be “Loose cougars on the prowl attacking men at the barcade.” That might be both a verb and an adjective.

    To those cougars that’s an objective.

    #39 11 months ago
    Quoted from Coz:

    Every new pin will lose value unless it winds up being rare or they stop producing them. Example: TBL, Alien, JJP POTC, etc.
    Spooky pins are selling for $1000 or more less than the cost- example I just sold a TNA for $4700 that originally cost $6000.
    American Pinball Houdini is selling for $5000 range when it cost $6500-7000
    CGC pins seem to hold their value a little better, but they are also top pins that everyone wants to own

    I have yet to see a 5k Houdini, reference please?

    #42 11 months ago
    Quoted from dnapac:

    I know...pinballs are not investments, and I don’t see them as such. But, I have noticed that the newer NIB Sterns seem to loose value quicker than the other companies pins (Spooky, CGC, JJP, American Pinball). Is this due to Stern making so many pins? If deeproot really follows through, will their pins second market value plummet? Has Stern reached saturation value with second market newer pins?

    The simple quick answer to the first question is yes.

    Without knowing the price point, supply, and consumer demand, there's no telling right now how the secondary market will be for Deeproot.

    In terms of a saturation level on the secondary market, Stern pins most likely will always have a certain "sell-off" and saturation feeling compared to other companies. This is simply due to the number of secondary market products always increasing because Stern puts out a high volume of primary products each year.

    #43 11 months ago

    A game can only rise in value if:

    -It’s GOOD.
    -It’s out of production.
    -Everyone wants one.

    People forget that not too long ago, for every TSPP & LOTR that held value, every other new Stern lost half its value or more. $1500-$2000 South Park, T3, Austin Powers, Sopranos all day long. Current games aren’t dropping as much due to being HUO & not route auction sales...but I don’t think the years will be kind to the value of games that aren’t excellent.

    #44 11 months ago

    I dont think Sterns lose anymore money than any other games at all. I'm just glad that i buy my games with the intent to keep and play and not with the intent to sell, that way i dont have to worry about these things.

    #46 11 months ago
    Quoted from holminone:

    Getting my grammar police hat on. Seeing this more and more and getting to pet peeve status. Both the OP and here....
    LOOSE is generally an adjective and means not tight. “The loose wire caused an intermittent short.” LOSE is a verb and essentially means to not win. “You lose.” Or “Bad pinball machines lose value faster than good machines.”
    Loose as a verb might be “Loose cougars on the prowl attacking men at the barcade.” That might be both a verb and an adjective.

    You gotta give non-native English speakers a break, if the Trollhattan location of the poster is accurate (although I personally believe Vid really was in Yemen)

    On topic, if someone really wanted to dive in I think the data are there, albeit imperfect. You could build a statistical model to predict the depreciation with variables that might affect long term price, such as manufacturer, number produced, code updates, etc.

    If someone has a kid who's looking for math fair idea, I think that would actually be a great project.

    #47 11 months ago

    Across the board, pretty much all NIB pins loose money within the first couple years of attempting to resell them.

    But, if it’s a good game and not many were made, an odd thing COULD happen at the 5-7 year mark, when there is little chance of the game being remade. The game will creep up in value because there are so few available in the open market. Still, that is rare and would only still hold true for games like Met LE, both versions of Tron, and to a lesser extent games like TSPP, BDK, and LOTR. With Stern rerunning their most popular titles, it’s even less likely now, for their releases.

    Boutique games in very short supply that barely got out the door will also rise over time. Alien, Big Leb., etc. Again, exceptions, not the rule.

    It’s sad to say but if you want a game to go up in value, try to buy the game from the company that is on the verge of bankruptcy after their first game starts shipping. I am not going to list those companies or games but I know that 10 years from now, those titles will be impossible to track down and more importantly, repair.

    There is a BIG difference between collecting NIB or games worth 10k+ on purpose, just playing pinball for fun, or playing pinball competitively. Most often, I don’t see the 3 groups of people cross over very often. It does happen some, but these groups are usually different types of players and pinball circles. Resale value and play value are dramatically different to these different types of pinball enthusiasts.

    Sometimes you have a beautiful game that plays amazing and is in short supply. Tron LE is one for certain. Like stated earlier, those games that check all the demand boxes for all types of pinball enthusiasts do not show up that often but when they do, it’s usually big $.

    #48 11 months ago

    I wonder if we can apply Burgernomics to pinball pricing, using the Big Mac Index. I’m not an economist but they seem to k ow what they are doing!

    B53D2E76-EBDF-4ADA-B39D-C32099EBB31E (resized).png
    #49 11 months ago
    Quoted from dnapac:

    Missing the point. I am asking manufacturer compared to other manufacturer...and their amount of production. Not merely NIB to used across all manufacturers.

    Asked and answered.

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