Across the board, pretty much all NIB pins loose money within the first couple years of attempting to resell them.
But, if it’s a good game and not many were made, an odd thing COULD happen at the 5-7 year mark, when there is little chance of the game being remade. The game will creep up in value because there are so few available in the open market. Still, that is rare and would only still hold true for games like Met LE, both versions of Tron, and to a lesser extent games like TSPP, BDK, and LOTR. With Stern rerunning their most popular titles, it’s even less likely now, for their releases.
Boutique games in very short supply that barely got out the door will also rise over time. Alien, Big Leb., etc. Again, exceptions, not the rule.
It’s sad to say but if you want a game to go up in value, try to buy the game from the company that is on the verge of bankruptcy after their first game starts shipping. I am not going to list those companies or games but I know that 10 years from now, those titles will be impossible to track down and more importantly, repair.
There is a BIG difference between collecting NIB or games worth 10k+ on purpose, just playing pinball for fun, or playing pinball competitively. Most often, I don’t see the 3 groups of people cross over very often. It does happen some, but these groups are usually different types of players and pinball circles. Resale value and play value are dramatically different to these different types of pinball enthusiasts.
Sometimes you have a beautiful game that plays amazing and is in short supply. Tron LE is one for certain. Like stated earlier, those games that check all the demand boxes for all types of pinball enthusiasts do not show up that often but when they do, it’s usually big $.