I'm a few months in, so I can relate to what your're going through somewhat. I would take the "buying"advise or pin suggestions your are getting on pinside, try and find them on the Pinball map ( you may have to drive some distance)and play them again and again until you find the right one or the right deal.
I would not recommend a non working project(unless your extremely talented, patient and a quick learner). Anything where you can clean stuff up and bolt stuff on(working) may be a good starting point. NIB games can and will have some down side financially, the pro's in a good title at $4800 won't lose you a ton of money. Sometime the market changes and you may be looking at $3500-$4000 on a used pin in the event you need to sell right away. Something to keep in mind. I've been buying all of my games figuring I will lose 10-15% and if I come out any different it will be a good thing. Be patient, buy smart and play lots of machines before you buy(use the pinball map to find). When you are ready, come on here and ask the masses for advise and take someone that knows what they are doing with you to look when you are ready..Now if I could just follow this advise all the time for myself
When in doubt post questions on this forum. There is a lot of really good people here that have been doing this for a long time.