Any Stern Pro machine from the last 10 years will be close to your $ and you could buy new in box. Or CGC Monster Bash classic is $6k NIB. Any NIB purchase will drop $500 or so in general to the re-sale market.

You need to talk to ZMeny pinball’s newest distributor.

Buying newer modern games used at a cheaper price would definitely hold a better value over a NIB. Most mods don't really add value to a game.

Go to many to many pinball shows as you can. There would be many for sale there that you can ask friend's of their opinion on condition and price.

Agree with this. If you can find a HUO used Stern Pro from someone who did not like the theme, it will cost loss (and depreciate less than a NIB). Plus you can look and pinside ratings and reviews to help find a popular title and more importantly one that resonates with you!

There are always exceptions, but non licensed themes and boutique pins are generally the riskest when it comes to holding NIB value. Most of the hit usually occurs in the first few years so you're probably OK buying a used one at a fair price. But there are so many great Stern pros for $4-5k why not start there.

Above all, take your time and buy a title you have actually played and enjoyed. Some titles may be hard to find locally. In the past, I had based some of my purchases on youtube videos. That had helped me to weed out many games that had not interested me that I may have otherwise bought sight unseen.

You can probably score a Rob Zombie for a great price now that shouldn’t drop any lower. I actually think later it will be worth more but that’s pure speculation.

Huo stern pro is an good choice. Lots of great titles available from $4000-$5000. Find a theme that you love and have fun

A Monster Bash remake or Attack from Mars Remake should hold more of their value than a generic Stern, long term.
Though $6K so you'd have to save a little more.

Reason for this is the top 3 ranked nature of these games- they have extra value to collectors and on route, even in their basic iterations.
I mean, Id still expect to lose a few bucks, but the NIB smell is pretty darn sweet for $500, and you know exactly where its been- not a bad bonus.

Yeah, I don’t think you can go wrong with most all of the newest Stern machines in the last two years. The one that has dropped the most is probably Aerosmith but it still has quite a following and it is a good game. So, if you take that as an example of the worst you could do, that’s pretty damn good.

The first two horror titles from Spooky have been hit or miss at holding their values, depending on condition.
Also, they play more like "homebrew" pins than legit top tier games,
So I'd really put a Spooky game dead last between a Stern and a CGC

Get a HUO MET pro

Huo stern Pros are the best bet for $5000 or under. They are the best value in pinball for play and cost. TWD, SW, DP, ST, MET, IMDN and IM are all great titles and should have interest from other collectors down the road. MB and AFM Classic editions are good values also and are $6000 NIB. Huo MB may be hard to find since it just came out but I got a huo AFM recently.

This local MET looks interesting -

https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/2018-met-promium-huo-200-plays-color#post-4798416

IMDN Pro is sub $5000????? Holy shit. That's a solid deal.

To the original poster, get AFM CE and call it a day. They've been produced nearly a full year, so no growing pains/factory tweaks for you to deal with. It is always a hit to play alone or with family and friends. There's a reason they remade it: pure demand and fun.