It all really depends on where you put your "values" at the most.

The Shadow is the best of that group (and also the deepest) and Goldeneye is easily the worst. Pins in a home environment usually do better long term when they are deeper.

ToM and fish tales are the most kid friendly, but they also present the least challenge. As a father of 3, I can tell you that you should NEVER buy a pin just for your kids. They wont play it as much, and regardless of how much they like it, they usually don't care in a month (or less). BSD is nice, but not kid friendly...and I really think it doesnt hold up well long term.

With your current collection, I think that The Shadow will also give you the best variance. Variety is the spice of life, and i wholly believe that is very true with home pinball collections.

P.S. Why isn't LOTR a consideration? It is a great game, on your wishlist, kid friendly, and it works extremely well in a home collection. I think it meets all your criteria.

ToM is a beautiful game with lots of toys that is kid friendly. It is also very repetitive, not deep, and the most expensive game on your list. Heck...you could get a fish tales AND a bram stokers dracula for that price.

Everyone buys, plays, and enjoys pins for different reasons. When asking others opinions, you are bound to see their own ideas that reflect those reasons. Longevity (deep rules and enjoyment), price, and variety within ones collection are my values.

Playing a game enough times to really see what you like is important. Otherwise I would recommend checking out all the reviews. You will see a lot of recurring thoughts on games...which usually indicates a good amount of truth and value from people that have played those pins a lot.

As much as some pan the top 100, I feel it is really helpful as well. If you take out the recency bias for newer games, it is pretty solid. Once again, however, it doesn't reflect ones nostalgia and personal values for a pin. Only you can decide that.