As many of you know I have long been in the camp that a pinball machine is like MOST CARS and should be a "depreciating asset". Therefore, for me everyone is focusing on the immediate impact on MM but I am focusing on the "collateral damage" to the other titles that are high priced. Personally, I would be surprised if that is not as bad but time will tell.

I truly doubt many are going to step up to the plate for a nice shape MB for over $12K with the strong possibility it can be remade as well. Same goes true for a CC in my opinion.

I have ALWAYS felt that the value in a pin is its FUN FACTOR coupled with its AVAILABILITY. A fun pin with limited availability is PRICED HIGH. I have NEVER nor will I ever believe that a pinball machine is fine art (i.e. a Picasso painting as they can't be recreated). If I am right then the price of a mint MM will be priced less then a re-make. For me, the newer one should be worth more not less since you have no maintainance issues and a warranty so I am going to follow this closely.

My feeling is the prices of the older MM's will be priced closer to TZ's now which is supposedly the #2 machine. That would make sense to me.....so my feeling is ones in good shape will be had in the $5K range and the really nice ones closer to $7K.....

Again, my opinion but more importantly it will set the bar on the other high priced pins. Main reason the most expensive older pin I have purchased (and I am very new to the hobby) was a TZ about 6 months ago fully modded out for $4,850.....that was my "high water mark" and a SS for around $4K. I never bought into this "appreciation forever" and assumed both my SS and TZ (which for me will always be worth the money I paid) were priced fairly and even if they re-make those titles I would keep mine as I feel new titles will depreciate as well so why pay almost double just to have a new pin of the same title....not worth it to me.

So my bet the more I have thought about it......and I just found out about it a couple of days ago so my "knee jerk reaction" was a 10-15 percent hair-cut on high priced pins is that they will sell for LESS then the re-makes in short order unless I am wrong and the older machines are like "fine art" or "classic cars" and I have never bought into that argument so we ALL FINALLY GET TO FIND OUT WHICH CAMP WAS RIGHT. I always bet that I was right and why I always stayed away from these older high priced titles when I built my collection 6 months ago.

Dave truly it will be interesting but I feel the "train has left the station" and for all the guys on this site that say "hey, value will not be effected" very few if any will step up and pay what they would have before this announcement.

So many are "talking the talk" but I doubt many will "step up to the plate". Your honesty is appreciated. I feel there are so many that bought pins because they felt prices could not drop. Myself, I allocated a certain dollar amount and like EVERYONE even myself would hope they never dropped (yes, I would love them to go up) but I bought them knowing they could go down and still would have made the purchase. That is why for me a good average cost was around $4K or so with a lot of diversification in my collection (mix between old "value titles" which I identified as TZ, FH, SS, HS2 and I500 which probably cost me an average of little under $3K which I was fine with since I knew I was building my collection after prices went way up....only 6 months ago) and some decent value newer titles (Wolverine LE after it got hit hard due to code, SM, IM, TSPP, AC/DC premium)......basically my newer titles I expect to lose an average of $1K-$1.5K per title over the next 5 years.....I am fine with that as I love playing them.....I figure if I lose $200 per year and play 100 games per title that is $2 per play.....sounds expensive but not really as I can play anytime and in the comfort of my home. Most likely it will cost me a $1 per play as my worse case scenario will probably not materialize and I will probably only lose $100 per year per title but even at $200 per title per year it is a CHEAP HOBBY in my mind. However, for those that want to make $100-$200 per year or more per title those days are gone in my opinion so if that was someone's "expectation" they need to find a cheaper hobby as this hobby will start to cost money rather then make money in my opinion.

HOWEVER, it will still be cheap compared to golf, boating, sporting events, etc......but the days of buying a $5K machine knowing you can sell it for at least that in 2-3 years I believe for MOST PINS is a thing of the past.

THIS WILL BE GOOD for the HOBBYISTS (which is so many on this board) but bad for the INVESTORS in my opinion. Overall a win for the HOBBY in my opinion !!!

Plus, it will truly show how many people (so many claim they didn't care about pricing) truly love the hobby.

I am laughing to myself as I really believe there are a GOOD PERCENTAGE of guys on here that tell their wives "hey, my hobby doesn't cost us anything".......well boys better come up with a better line when you buy your next pin......more pins for me to buy....hey a MM and MB for under $6K and I am IN !!!! How about a nice AFM for around $5K (and yes if TZ is under $5K it can happen) and I would buy that as well !!!

Personally, I think we get there quicker then people expect we will. How about people with money that have older titles but truly just want the new ones (less maintainance and nicer appearance) they aren't going to care and will sell their old titles at a price the market will pay (yes, even if it is below $6K !!!). People forget most people there cost basis on so many MB's and MM's are under $6K (all you had to do was buy 4-5 years ago so again that will fuel this decline in my opinion on these titles).

Dave.....you will be fine. It is a SMART MAN that gets it and you do. I agree 500% with your assessment and you will be fine.

What you are seeing and you are an owner is what is HAPPENING. So many are truly in denial....my bet is MOST of them would take the old prices (months ago) and get out in a NY MINUTE so there are so many on here that are just in TOTAL DENIAL and trying to come up with reasons why the prices on an MM will not go down. I never bought it and don't buy it now. If they held hoping they would go up they LOST....no different then buying a stock.....you win some and you lose some and truly MOST OF THEM WON based on what they paid even if they take between $8.5K-$10K like you are willing to do.....I would say 90% of them will make money so it is funny to see so many "crying over this"......damn, the housing market collapsed.....it happens....stock collapsed.....even GOLD has corrected from its highs but a MM can't drop 20-30 percent.....I was off this board for a few weeks and when I came back and "caught up" I was dying last night reading the DENIAL so many are in.

Good news is this is a long overdue "market correction".......it happens guys.....some are not going to deal with it well.....I am thinking like I always do how can I take advantage of the pricing when it "over corrects" which it will....always does.....patience is the key. The bottom is not next week it may not be until late next year or the following year who knows.....but under $6K (which is my personal limit) I get interested in MB and MM. Might not get there but I feel it will eventually but probably not until after the title is released assuming it is made well and plays like the original.

Dave.....you will be fine. It is a SMART MAN that gets it and you do. I agree 500% with your assessment and you will be fine.

What you are seeing and you are an owner is what is HAPPENING. So many are truly in denial....my bet is MOST of them would take the old prices (months ago) and get out in a NY MINUTE so there are so many on here that are just in TOTAL DENIAL and trying to come up with reasons why the prices on an MM will not go down. I never bought it and don't buy it now. If they held hoping they would go up they LOST....no different then buying a stock.....you win some and you lose some and truly MOST OF THEM WON based on what they paid even if they take between $8.5K-$10K like you are willing to do.....I would say 90% of them will make money so it is funny to see so many "crying over this"......damn, the housing market collapsed.....it happens....stock collapsed.....even GOLD has corrected from its highs but a MM can't drop 20-30 percent.....I was off this board for a few weeks and when I came back and "caught up" I was dying last night reading the DENIAL so many are in.

Good news is this is a long overdue "market correction".......it happens guys.....some are not going to deal with it well.....I am thinking like I always do how can I take advantage of the pricing when it "over corrects" which it will....always does.....patience is the key. The bottom is not next week it may not be until late next year or the following year who knows.....but under $6K (which is my personal limit) I get interested in MB and MM. Might not get there but I feel it will eventually but probably not until after the title is released assuming it is made well and plays like the original.

For what it is worth I like to think I have made some good calls in my life (some really bad ones but some really good ones that have offset the bad ones thank god).

I used the same thought process when I buy anything (housing, stocks, pins, etc.). I LOOK FOR VALUE for my dollar. I bought my current house in the middle of the crash (when it was really bad). It was a brand new home that nobody could close on due to financing (the original buyers never moved in due to a divorce and the builder was stuck with a house that was very difficult to sell). So how did I come up with my offer. I first priced the lot (at the very low end of the historical range....it is a beautiful lot on 5 acres) and then I priced the cost to build the house. THEN MY OFFER WAS 10% below that........I knew that if I paid at the bottom end of the historical range for the land and under the COST TO BUILD that someday I would be FINE......simple analysis and it worked out because in time I knew it would (as long as in my area they would someday build again it had to unless materials and labor cost went down and the land really crashed which I felt both were very unlikely). It is all about "stepping back" and thinking rationally rather then always "drinking the kool aid with the masses". Truly, I have always felt the masses are wrong more then they are right.....hey, if that wasn't the case there would be more successful people then unsuccessful. You sell when EVERYONE is buying and buy when either nobody can (2009 was my most active year for buying stocks, housing and so many "toys") and SELL when YOUR BARBER starts giving you stock advice....truly it never fails.....it really is funny.

So that is how I came up with prices I would pay for pins earlier this year. I PAID less then what I felt the game could be made for in every case with the exception of a couple of my newer games (AC/DC premium and IM)......but everything else I felt was not only a GREAT GAME but a GREAT VALUE based on my view of pinball machines.

A CC for $15K for me never made any sense but a SS for $4K or TZ fully modded for $4,850 or nice FH for $3K made sense to me. I even got a nice I500 and HS2 for $1,500 each and I did this at the high priced point for pins knowing I would probably lose something......my point is I wanted to limit what it would cost me to something I felt was REASONABLE and that is what I did so truly I really didn't care much what pins did.

If my TZ goes for $3K someday or less that means I can buy AFM, MM and MB for most likely under $6K and I am fine with that.....but at over $10K my response and always will be NO THANKS !!!

Wow watching Net Flix.....opened up at $389 after they announced earnings last night now under $340.......big reversal.....got to feel for the guys who bought the HYPE at the open. My point who the HE** really knows. Netflix might go to 1,000 or might go back under $100. MM might go to $20K in 2 years or might go back under $5K.

My biggest point was that most of us have enough things to watch (did our house go up, did our stocks go up, where are CD rates at, etc.)......I sure never think much if my cars, pins or boats are going up.....I just buy them assuming they will go down. From my view they are SUPPOSE to go down they give me tons of enjoyment. I do expect Real Estate over time to go up and my stock portfolio over time to go up and if it doesn't to me THAT SU**** because they are INVESTMENTS...period.

Just enjoy the pins we have. In fact, I am going to go downstairs shortly and play some TZ as I just feel like having talking Tina tell me that I won an extra ball !!!! Maybe I will bang my Iron Monger a few times after that......while I listen to my juke box.....and enjoy my neon signs and then maybe shoot some pool......if everyone of those assets depreciate so be it.....they are suppose to.....just let housing keep going up and stocks keep rising and truly who cares about the $1K-$2K I lose on those assets each year......will always be the cheapest hobby I ever had !!!

THANKS TO EVERYONE who has posted. Who knows who will be right but my MAJOR POINT was that I feel you will also see collateral damage to other titles just on the FEAR THEY WILL BE REPRODUCED !!!! I just don't see anyone stepping up to buy a HEP restored CC for over $15K if they feel there is a chance a new remade one might be $8K !!!! The days of a mint HUO MB going for over $12K are probably gone for now as well...

Time to grab some lunch and play some pin. Most of us truly don't have any "real problems" and 90% of the world would kill for MOST OF OUR PROBLEMS.....so all of us need to keep that in mind. Doubt anybody living in the ghettos of NY are going to cry for someone who just lost a $4K "paper gain" on a MM they own outright.

What I find funny is I do believe we will all see "some panic selling" (in my opinion it is VERY SLOWLY starting). Some people are not going to want to risk being a "bag holder" and don't want to think "I should have sold" but truly the one thing I know about PINSIDERS is they are very smart. I doubt many of us who have waited will step up to the plate just because some of now willing to drop the price of a MM by a $1K or $2K or a CC by $2K or $3K we all know where they were selling only a few years ago.

I am looking at the couple of high priced items on this board and I am not even seeing offers....

I wonder if any of us would even buy the HEP restored CC for $13K right now.....my bet is probably not or pay $11K for a really nice MM....they would have fetched those prices prior to this without much trouble. Until people feel the RISK is properly adjusted nobody is "stepping up to the plate". Well, somebody might but I doubt many will.

If the remakes are made WELL then to me that is going to really hurt the old games. So you can get a well made remake with a WARRANTY and no maintainance issues for many years for MUCH LESS (since some are arguing that the old MM's should stay in the $11K-$15K range) makes it a no brainer to buy a re-make for $8K. The old ones either come down or in my opinion at least for now NOBODY is going to "step up to the plate" and buy a MM for well over $10K. Also, this goes for some other high priced titles as truly "who wants to be a bag holder" and RISK buying a MM for $12K or more. Pinsiders by their nature are SMART PEOPLE and I don't see too many of them "sticking their neck out" right now....they will exercise PATIENCE and CAUTION and wait for the "dust to settle" before reaching for their wallets !!!!

My feeling IF THEY GET THERE and they aren't going to get there anytime soon but at $6K I am a buyer of a nice MM or CC !!!! People laugh but what were they selling at in 2009-2010 !!!! So who knows they may get there again and you know what "I PULL THE TRIGGER" and don't care if they go to $3K !!!! Some people my $6K might be there $10K so who knows when others "step up to the plate" but I am a buyer for sure at $6K and maybe even a little higher (as both CC and MM I would love to own but $10K is never going to happen for either title). I hope the re-makes push down the prices below the price of the re-makes is my hope which again is at least "possible" so it pays to wait.