I am subjecting myself to more BASHING (but I have thick skin thank god) but I just wanted to start a post where I could give my opinion (most probably don't care) of what I feel is going on in this "HOBBY".

As some of you know, I got back into it in February after selling 5 pins (in early 2011) I bought during the bad recession/depression of 2008-2009. I owned a Teed Off, GNR, Dr. WHO, T2 and Cue Ball Wizard. I payed like $5,000 for all 5 of those pins (wow, how times have changed). After playing them for a few years I decided I was tired of them. So I sold them all to a retailer (I love to buy and hate to sell for obvious reasons) for about $9,000. The guy hired a shipping company where I did not have to do ANYTHING (and I have a walk up basement with like 15 steps....not fun).

So fast forard to February 2013. I wanted a winter hobby (love to boat and golf in the warm weather) since I decided to retire this year. So now I have so much time I wanted to have more to do "indoors". So I buy a bunch of pins and am ENJOYING THEM. Truly, if this was an INVESTMENT this in my opinion is THE WRONG TIME TO BUY.....what I have spent is unbelievable but hey "FUN AIN'T CHEAP" (the name of one of my friends boats.....you haven't really seen an expensive hobby until you owned a big boat....trust me !!!).

So I have paid FAIR PRICES and did buy some NIB TRON PROS (Last Run) and AC/DC Premiums as extras.....TO MAINLY TRADE as the DC area is a tough area to land nice pins at good prices (so I felt it would help to have another form of currency). Yes, this is MINOR SPECULATION (or even major if you want to call it that) but I am FINE WITH THE RISK and FEEL IT IS MINIMAL and it is working out fine like I felt it would.

HOWEVER, what I have seen was not occurring in early 2011 when I left the hobby. Truly, nobody in 2008-2009 talked about these PINS as TRUE INVESTMENTS....everyone was just BUYING THEM TO ENJOY !!! PERIOD.

Now, I see people keeping them NIB to just make money and THERE IS NOTHING ILLEGAL OR WRONG WITH THAT but BOY HAS IT CHANGED from when I was in it a couple of years ago...either that or I didn't see it back then.

I just ask the question to anyone has this become more of a SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT do most of you think or do you truly feel MOST PEOPLE TRULY just buy these LE's to enjoy and play. Neither answer is bad I just get GRIEF from EVERYONE when I try to call it what I FEEL IT HAS BECOME...which again is probably not the best for the HOBBY but we are all BIG BOYS and the people doing it know the risk and should understand that they can LOSE MONEY (personally, I feel this will help the HOBBYISTS and just picked up a beautiful X-MEN LE I LOVE for a great price so I say SPECULATE as it truly doesn't effect me much because if I want an LE to ENJOY I will just put in a deposit ahead of time and get the game...it isn't that hard to do). I didn't want METALLICA LE as I feel the BAND STINKS but if it was AEROSMITH OR VAN HALEN I would have bought ONE for me....yes, just ONE as I only purchase things to trade that I am VERY SURE will not go down much in value in the short term (yes, I don't feel a NIB AC/DC premium will go down much nor a TRON PRO so I do feel that is not the type of speculation being done on these LE's that have not hit the street).

So have these LIMITED EDITION LE's combined with the price appreciation made the buying of machines MORE OF AN INVESTMENT or A HOBBY in YOUR OPINION. Does it bother any of you that have been in the HOBBY a long time.

Also, do any of you truly consider your pins "part of your retirement fund".....probably few will answer that question truthfully. I feel we are getting near a significant top and truly feel prices are "finally weakening" due to supply/demand (people buying the new games so less money to pay for the "oldies but goodies") and truly feel (based on some of the ads I see) that some are selling their machines (many of them) to "cash out"....personally, I view them like I do any other asset (other then my house) I own (boats, cars, TV's etc.) and if they go up THAT IS GREAT but truly did not buy them to FUND MY RETIREMENT as I said I am RETIRED so thank god I have that funded already.....lol !!!

Just a thread where people can vent or give their opinions as I do feel this is an appropriate topic and forum to hear other people and their opinion.

Finally, I saw an ad somewhere where I guy already put his Metallica LE up for sale (or the rights to buy his Metallia LE). For $9K and I believed he used the excuse he needed the money due to unforeseen circumstances....I DIED LAUGHING because truly if I needed the money and JUST BOUGHT IT (which is highly unlikely if you really think about it as what are the chances) then I would gladly take what I paid days ago !!! So now people are wanting to make a PROFIT before the game is shipped.....trust me, there was so much of this in my opinion with the METALLICA LE that I don't see how it ends up going up in value (when it appears EASY it never IS....I learned that early on in life).

Again, times were different in this HOBBY 4-5 years ago and just like with anything once "certain people" see money making potential they FLOCK TO IT and I truly believe this HOBBY has been invaded with NON HOBBYISTS who are making money off the HOBBYIST and I am just surprised so many of you guys are fine with it. You are even nice to these guys that are "flipping pins" which is fine......guess you feel if you don't form a relationship with them other HOBBYISTS will and you will lose out on pins you want (but I see many posters making good money doing this and this is no longer MOSTLY (like it used to be) about people holding pins and after getting tired selling them to other HOBBYISTS....it is more about people making money in my opinion off the TRUE HOBBYISTS). PRICE INFLATION CAUSED THEM TO SEIZE THIS OPPORTUNITY and unfortunately it is what will ultimately cause the prices to CRASH !!!

Waiting for some opinions but this is what I see it after being gone from the hobby for over 2 years......

_{Post edited by The_Dude_Abides : Please do not post thread headers in all caps.}

No problem I didn't mean to "vent" on that other thread.

The Distributors keeping them is an interesting thought as to price increases. However, it is no different then anything else. The only thing that would worry me there is "leverage" is never good. As we all know, we trust these guys with A LOT of money so as long as they are buying the machines with OUR CASH I truly don't care (but it does really show us how rampant SPECULATION IS BECOMING) but the risk is they buy it with CREDIT and or SPECULATE WITH OUR MONEY and then you have another problem. That would really be "beautiful" but again that is a RISK WE ALL TAKE and when you buy them you have to factor in this risk. I met with my distributor personally and like him but truly I still knew the risk I was taking (damn, he had over $30K of my money so I had to have a high comfort level as I hope all of you do) if he ever shut the doors before I got my machines. Trust me, I am sure this has happpened to SOMEONE out there or someday WILL HAPPEN to someone and that is not going to be good (pay for a pin and the distributor goes Bankrupt between the time you paid but befoe you get your pin).

Keep the posts coming. Also, I only have bought from people I felt were TRUE HOBBYISTS and aren't using this HOBBY MAINLY for personal gain (yes, you can have 20 machines and still use the hobby MAINLY for personal gain....sorry, but it is true and there are many that do that and I prefer to buy elsewhere.....if someone is selling 4-5 games monthly most likely they are using it MAINLY for personal gain (which doesn't make them bad people but I don't feel it truly helps the hobby and helps feed the increases in prices we are seeing). Most don't care and that is alright as we all make our own decisions and that is a decision I made early on that I would keep the money in the HOBBY and have done that (with the exception of NIB....LOL...no choice in that case).

Again, I have no problem with someone doing it for PERSONAL GAIN either but I do think quite a few give the impression that is not important to them and will leave it at that.....they befriend the people with the "money" which is most of us....LOL !!! Hey, it is easy to be nice to anyone you are making money off of so I watch that from a distance and do find it a little funny. Not to say they are "bad people" just semi-retailers DISGUISED AS HOBBYISTS....and they are out there and not hard to figure out (damn, I have done it in 3 months....lol). Just wish they would hang an EBAY STORE under their AVATOR.....LOL !!! Hey, no EBAY FEES !!!

CCOT,

Lets see how many have I sold....ZERO. How many due I plan to sell this year....ZERO. Guess that is my definition of someone doing it as a HOBBY. As for the NIB pins.....how many have I sold...ZERO (traded one).

I don't see much financial motivation here so that is my definition of a HOBBYIST to do it MAINLY to enjoy and not mainly for financial gain.

Again, I don't care if people do it for financial gain. Just call it what it is. I don't but some do and like I said "don't act like they are HOBBYIST when their motivation if MAINLY FINANCIAL"....just put an EBAY SIGN under their AVATOR. A used car salesman selling antique cars at least you know when you walk in that he has a "true financial motive" and it isn't his love of ANTIQUE CARS. Not sure many of the Pinsiders understand how many of the Pinsiders are truly on here just to make money (which again is fine) off of them. I see a lot of true people who are passionate about this HOBBY and many others that just view it as INVESTMENTS or a way to make a Buck.....either one is fine I was just wondering how many would admit they are in it more for the money then the hobby. It is easy to find out which ones they are didn't take me very long just watching their posts (selling 5-6 machines a month makes you a "salesman" not a hobbyist in my opinion). Selling one a month or so you might still be a hobbyist just like to fix some up and turn over your collection but 5-6 every month MOST LIKELY you aren't a hobbyist in my "humble opinion". They are in this hobby to make money off the hobbyists which again is fine (not illegal...lol) but don't parade around as one of them.

Maybe the guy advertising a METALLICA LE for sale before he even received it "thinks he is a hobbyist as well". Who knows. I can hear him now "but I own 3 other pins"...LOL !!!

LOL......you guys are all funny.

This is the housing market all over again and it will have the same exact result....NASDAQ 5K and every other bubble.

My barber told me the other day he was bought a METALLICA LE to sell for a profit. Think I am joking....unfortunately, not. If that doesn't say TOP I don't know what does.

Stern is seeing this and will raise prices as well. They would rather make the profits then let others make it since the demand is so high (what do you think the builders did with housing).

I just hope people really are buying these machines for FUN because when the bottom falls out they will be keeping them for a long time trying to convince themselves "my MM will be worth $15K again"....the value for all these "toys" are what someone will pay. You can't eat them....lol....well, some people might have to if they bought these as "investments". Maybe with a lot of salt and pepper a flipper might not taste that bad....LOL !!!

The question is "when they drop at least $1K or $2K" which should be the drop for a new toy are you fine with that. That is the whole mentality "they can't drop or $100 or $200" so when they adjust and drop $1K or $2K lets see if everyone who didn't buy them for investments are fine with that and continue to buy 3 or 4 a year.

That is exactly what is wrong even the people who expect to lose money think $100 or $200 is "the norm" over a year or two. Can you buy a new TV for $5K and only lose $100 or $200 or most new "gadgets".....forget it everyone just is convinced that pins ONLY GO UP and that I am fine with losing $100 or $200 for enjoyment which is almost the equivalent of going up when you factor in most other "toys". Not many toys you guy for $7K and have fun with them and sell them for $6.9K.

Wonder how many people buying a MM this year for $15K are truly fine with it being worth $9K in 3 years (of course that can't happen....even though you could buy them for less then that 4 years ago). Doubt as many MM's would be sold if people thought they would drop $6K unlike cars and TVs where we all expect them to drop....or how many people owning a MM would not sell them ASAP if they knew they would drop $6K next year (truly to people owning them for fun that should not matter).

Call it ranting....my point was only if everyone buying pins expect them to drop 30% or 40% and are fine with that they SHOULD BE BUYING THEM...however, if a drop like that makes them sick then they are FOOLING THEMSELVES. When did pinball machines become investments and YES if someone truly thinks like the poster above that $100 or $200 loss is "all they should expect" in my opinion they are going to be very much surprised.

At these levels the only people that should be buying are the ones that truly can afford to lose and not care 30% or more of the price and I did buy all my pins knowing that and truly I see prices weakening but NOBODY wants to admit that these prices are probably close to peaking and when the bubble burst (and it will) these TOYS will be like all other TOYS we buy and drop accordingly.

Everyone is drinking the KOOL AID in my opinion and Metallica LE selling out as quick as it did and MM's selling for $15K should be a "warning sign" that we are due for a nice correction.

Still laughing.....$100 or $200 loss and thinking that is like the norm....lets see how many people by NIB's for $8K when they know in 3 years they can only get $4K.....thats right...that can never happen....well, my whole point if YOU KNEW IT WOULD would you buy and truly those are the ONLY PEOPLE THAT SHOULD BE BUYING in my opinion. The ones buying for appreciation or because they believe they can play and only lose $100 or $200 for a year or two need to give it a long thought.

So bash me for actually TRYING TO HELP people as I do believe so many people are not truly aware of the risks (again, just evidenced by the post above where the guy thinks $100 or $200 is a normal loss).....these are TOYS and FOR FUN but they should go down in value not up and people should buy expecting that not the opposite.

Don't worry I just wrote the Sequel.....LOL. Wait until you read that one I believe it is already on the bottom of the best seller list but in 3 years I will re-post them and we will see how many NIB owners truly made money after opening an asset that is suppose to DEPRECIATE. Maybe I should but a new 40 foot Sea Ray tomorrow because after I use it I should only lose $100 or $200 or it should go up. Their is no true reason other then "people are paying it" why any NIB pin should truly go up in value it should DEPRECIATE like a Car, TV, Boat, etc.

So everyone can stay in denial but this party is ending soon....Metallica LE and Star Trek will be the "top of the NIB market" so remember this post a few years from now.

If I am wrong that is good for me (I get to enjoy pins and make money as well) but I did not factor that in. I expect to lose $10K and maybe more over the next 2-3 years and it could be more. However, for the fun of playing them that is CHEAP ENJOYMENT. I just wonder how many (AND THEIR ARE SOME PEOPLE THAT I AM SURE EXPECT TO LOSE MONEY) people buy NIB's and are truly fine with them going down 40% or 50%. Damn, people are crying over the losses in their NIB X-MEN LE's and HULK LE's and think a $500 to $1,000 loss is a lot for them....everyone has been SPOILED for a LONG TIME and that will soon be the NORM LIKE IT SHOULD BE for most NIB's. Then another $500 to $1,000 a year later....just like a Boat or Car or any other "toy" we all own.

Also, the good news is I can write a novel everyday being retired at 51. However, I am just a "stupid guy" who knows very little. You guys are truly in for an awakening over the next few years when pinball machines (especially NIB) finally act like the "asset class they are".....everyone is convinced they are MONA LISA's.....yes, the art work on TOM (I own one) is really nice but it isn't going into the SMITHSONIAN. The light show on TOTAN is nice as well but again isn't fine art in my opinion. The smart money (and I have seen some local collectors) have been selling some of their more expensive machines....they are "cashing out" and truly for the price of a MM and MB and AFM it probably is about time.....thats right MM is going to $30K.....my bet is it breaks $10K on the downside before $20K on the upside.

I have seen pricing weakening and I have been very active establishing a collection for FUN so I have been out there buying as much as most people. I bought yesterday a TZ in REALLY NICE SHAPE with the Rocket Mod, Piano Mod, Robbie the Robot, T-Bird, Gumball Mod and LED's and even the white clock for $4,850 !!! Really nice playfield and unfaded cabinet. I see the prices of TOM's weakening all the time...SM's have stabilized and gone down.....I can list so many examples. So everyone come up with all the reasons they want....everyone is spending money on newer machines (yes to speculate..lol) so they have to sell their old machines which increase supply. Or maybe prices are finally coming down from extremely high prices and WILL CONTINUE TO DROP for YEARS like housing did.

Of course that is NOT POSSIBLE because PINBALL MACHINES ONLY GO UP IN VALUE.....we ALL ARE THE MARKET and truly unless WE ALL WANT TO PAY MORE the prices will decline. Yes, it is that simple....it is Economics 101....