No NIB for me. HUO with mods is the best way to go.

NIB high dollar stuff (LE, premiums, JJP, etc...) is dropping.

NIB pro stuff is taking a normal hit. Keep in mind that many people were buying NIB pros just 2 years ago for $42-4500 and then selling for 5k to match the newest title. Reality is setting in now.

If Stern adjusts down for PRO pricing then it shows they are adjusting to lack of demand. If not, then there are still enough dummies out there.

Aside from that, prices are still going up on all the classics and good games form the 70s, 80s, and 90s.

I buy mainly old stuff, rare stuff, and sub 2k so my buying habits wont change.

If one thinks of pinball as an investment, it's likely they don't have much experience in either pinball or investing.

I don't see that there is any percent I would put on all of pinball in terms of depreciation. There is just too much variability. Out of habit, I do calculate the percentage of loss I'm willing to take on a game when selling it. It actually helps me sell when listing a game or deciding to lower a price if the game isn't selling. When I see it in terms of percent vs dollars, it bothers me less and helps me be more objective.

We are a niche hobby that's small enough we are all lumped together in places like Pinside. Within our small group are lots of different hobbyists. We have collectors, restorers, players, competitors, modders and others all in different income groups. Even within similar income groups, we tend to disagree about these topics.

For my personal threshold, I've bought and sold enough games from NIB, HUO, high end, players and left for dead that I have some personal levels in mind. For the time being, around 6K is all I'm willing to pay for a game. I would much prefer to not go over 5K. That leaves me Stern Pro and Spooky for now. I'm totally happy to, and actually prefer, buy used and HUO. Stern LE and now NIB premiums have out priced me. JJP has left the ball park completely. When it comes to late model games from the last 3-4 years, I will not pay more than my "NIB shipped" price for a used game, no matter how nice it's modded. I see many used Stern pros for sale with a 5 as their first number. I have no ill will towards the sellers. I can get one shipped to my door, brand new in a box for very close to those prices, sometimes less.

My most recent example. I've been saving up some rainy day "got to have it" funds. I've got enough to get an LE or JJP game. After weighing all the differences for a few months, I sold a game at a loss, bought a used Aerosmith Pro for less than I sold my game. I then used a small portion of my rainy day fund for a Telescope and still have most of my fund.

Think of them as depreciating assets.

To me, to buy something, own it for a few years, play with it, enjoy it, then sell it for 75% of the cost of what I paid is still a great value compared to literally anything else I can think of.

If people would just put them on $1 per play then take the money out before you sell for less, you will feel much better about this.

$1 per play to have a game in your own home is a bargain!

Feels pretty good to me if you can own a NIB pinball machine for a full year, put 1000 plays on it, and sell it for 1k less than you paid.

I would say if the price has dropped more then 1k, then you just need to play it more before you sell

Buying a new car every year is also more expensive than every 3-5 years. If someone wants a new car every year, be prepared to pay for that privilege.

I'd apply the same thinking to owning a pinball for 3 months. and certainly a NIB.

I'm curious what was the impetus behind this post? Was there some event I'm not aware of where all the prices came down? Or are you purely speculating based on the abundance of NIB options and the limited market of buyers?

Specifially this quote from the OP: "Right now it looks like the pinball market is going to return to normality in that much bigger losses on NIB games especially are going to be the new normal." What is the basis for that?

thanks!

I host a pinball league as well as other tournaments, and in our league, the norm is $10/pp for coin drop (all games on free play). Over time, this will offset some of the purchase costs, and I get to meet and play with some great people at the same time. Sometimes the "profit" is not always reflected in dollar signs.

There is no basis for it, it's purely made up. Fact.

I've never bought a NIB pin, so it doesn't affect my buying habits personally. I thought NIB pin prices were too high when they were $4,200, so you can imagine what I think of prices right now. I buy used. For me, I just want a game that looks good and plays like it should. It doesn't need to be HUO or a museum piece. It certainly doesn't need to be loaded with high priced mods, in fact I prefer that it isn't. I prefer to buy low and sell just below market for an easier sale when the time comes. Some new games are good, some are great...but none are worth $7,000+ to me personally. I love to play, but I would never get that much use or enjoyment out of them to justify the cost so I buy what I like used and play the rest on route or in other's collections.

I think it's becoming more normal for NIB pins to drop in value due to the number of games that are now out including remakes, high LE counts, super / collector editions, and multiple runs of games. If a NIB pin takes a $500-$1000 hit after a year that sucks but isn't the end of the world.

Personally I would rather buy a 2 year old car and save $5k-$10k on it versus buying new. That more then makes up for any depreciation from NIB pins.

I disagree. Looking at the market section recently, there are Hobbits going for $6,000 and GB LE's and Premiums going for $6500. I would agree with some of the earlier posts that Pro's will probably hold more value than Premium/LE/JJP's because I think the average HUO price ceiling is 6K. I don't think people are wanting to pay more than 5K--6K on a used machine. Will that affect purchasing NIB Prem/LE/JJP's? Time will tell. Have we hit the pricing ceiling? Who knows? But the HUO price ceiling I think is starting to define itself. Not in all cases, but we are talking generalizations, right? It's going to be interesting to see the struggle between what future HUO buyers are willing to pay and what seller's are willing to lose.

There's a big difference though in someone looking for a quick sale versus a normal price. Also, condition, extras, and location heavily effects the price as well. Normal stock Hobbit HUO price is between $6500-$7000 at this time which is still a big hit from new. There's been some sales around $6k but they have been routed games with issues.

I remember seeing one Star Trek LE sell for $6k a while back but they are certainly worth much more then that. However, Star Trek had it's code heavily worked on after that point and prices for the game rised. The Hobbit desperately needs some polish and a final wizard mode added for its prices to start recovering. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen.

I think code support and whether or not code has been polished has a big influence on resale value. While resale on WOZ's are pretty good today there was a time where they were taking a decent hit due to the state of its code.

Agree with your comments Panzerfreak. Always hard to predict long term trends using short term evidence. Guess time will tell. Interesting to see if there will be a difference between the NIB price ceiling and the HUO price ceiling and how those will drive the market.

I remember when I got into the Hobby and stern pros were $4200 and the bubble was definitely about to burst.

I was told the other day the bubble is about to burst and we are all going to be stuck with $100k in games that are worth $10k. I don't think so, there is a huge influx of people joining the hobby. Just in Nashville alone there are loads of new folks getting in the hobby and buying like crazy. People freak out once per year like this. Everything is fine. There are plenty of folks willing to lose $1000 on a NIB to enjoy it for a year or so. I think people are just saving money at the moment to buy JJP, Houdini, and the next Stern and CGC remake. It will all be back to normal soon enough.

I think higher priced games will be the ones taking the largest hit as the customer base at those price points is going to be smaller.

Both Stern and JJP are going run into a problem, and I think they are already there, where their customer base is growing smaller with each price increase. Also, both companies, especially JJP, are removing the rarity factor of LE's by making producing high counts of LE games. If Stern had made 1000 ACDC LE's resale value on the game would be much less then what it is today.

I am a little disappointed that JJP makes a bunch of LEs. I think a LE should be limited to 250 or 500 tops. That way the ones of us dropping $9k can get most of our money back. If they make 2000 LEs then it loses its luster market is flooded then we take a larger hit on resale.

I imagine there's some parallel universe where Kaneda has a beard and every two weeks there's a thread on Pinside where someone asks if the market is dangerously underserved and if pinball prices are going to be rising astronomically anytime soon.

Games that are not as well received are always going to drop some in value. I personally really like RZ but it's an odd game and not for everyone. It would be like me saying RZ, TH, WrestleMania, and GOT are taking big loses there fore the market is saturated. To do that you have to ignore the pile of games out of production that are going up in value though. Good games that are no longer being made will always go up in value if pinball continues to grow and they are well maintained.

If announcing drains is now a moderated offense, shouldn't cajoling people to drain threads as well?

In the future, everything will be moderated in 15 minutes.

And RZ prices are dropping because the game sucks and way too many people bought them to scalp. Doesn't have anything to do with the bubble bursting for the 20th time this year.

Gems like this are why I ♡ Levi...

Aah, thanks - that game has always been a head scratcher to me. It's RIGHT up my alley (I do really like the whole RZ brand, sometimes like his music.. tried to like his movies.. lol) and the lower prices on those have got me thinking 'hmm... do we have room?' Of course we do not... Appreciate the insight

Well it's WAY more than RZ

Look at TH and every other pin priced above $8k

And it extends to the high end USED market to

Like Frolic, buy what u like and can afford, enjoy it and don't worry about

I wish I were in your area - I am not seeing anything resembling a price drop in our area. Maybe it will sweep our way soon

If the entire market tanks...I still have some fun games to play (although it might get a little tougher to maintain them).

I "hope" they are worth something when/if I go to sell them...if not it was fun while it lasted.

Talked to a few folks selling who say nothing but lowball cash or trades for other pins have been offered.

Damn pirates have sunk the market...

I'm just paying attention to the Market and for sale ads over the past several years and it's been a clear shift since all these new high priced pins are hitting

Could see it coming like a hurricane out parked out in the gulf

Words to live by!

Will someone buy my MM before its not worth anything....

I can’t wait for the bubble to burst, then I can buy all the machines I want for cheap woooohoo, burst it!!!!

Yeah I've been hoping the bottom falls out for awHile now.

Yep the bottom is falling out. That's why there's no more competition for reasonably priced games. /s

Even the used market seems a little slow. Everybody probably already spent all their pin money during the spring and summer.

The problem is, there's literally hundreds of people here waiting to pounce on the same deals. There's literally hundreds of people who aren't here who are waiting for the same thing.

Which is why I can't imagine it actually happening.

Sorry to burst your bubble!

I think these prices are starting to hit a ceiling in which the high end market will pay. That being said those 200 JJPOTC CE's will all sell. however I believe there is an untapped market in the lower end between $3-5000K that would get a lot of newer players to purchase. If that's even feasible from a production standpoint. Every person who loves pinball has a price point whether its $10 once every couple weeks on route or $10k NIB.

We also cant overlook the trade market. people have money in this hobby and are willing trade up and down to buy expensive pins. The more pins people buy and pay off debts you end up with a higher pinball equity. We all know they spawn like gremlins once you buy your first . maybe some will sell 2 games to buy that JJPOTC CE because its a dream theme. Maybe someone will trade plus cash. I think there are enough new people joining the hobby to sustain these prices for a time but I agree with the OP the NIB depreciation will be the first sign off a price point correction.

I think we can clearly differentiate between the lower end market for older games, the sweet spot of pricing, versus the $8k plus high end market, and maybe $7k plus for that matter.

The $2k-$5k market isn't gonna pop, I wouldn't think, plenty of people that love pinball to soak those up with a lot less risk.

Condition is king. It's all about the shooter lane!

CL is dead. The supply of 80's, 90s and early 2Ks route beaters to shop and play and flip is dried up and now people think their Hurricanes and No Fears are all worth 3K+. So since everyone wants so much for used games why not buy new ones for a little more became the mantra... AND those games are gonna be moved on someday for the next new game, and hopefully 2 or 3 generations down are those new "route" games for people to be able to get started on.

Prices are prices. If you buy new, you're gonna lose money, so put some plays on that thing!

Look at the Winston Salem auction thread.. both that auction and another mentioned in CA had way HIGH prices on everything 5K and under. Looks like the 'bubble burst' is mostly affecting recent, expensive titles that turned out to be not all that great (BM66, GB, Hobbit)

yes it depends on the game. people are still paying bigger dollars for TWDLE, Metallica MOP, WOZ Emerald City, LOTRLE (this one is a headscratcher to me. not the game just the LE)

All that being said the Canadian market differs slightly to the US as there are even less of each of these used for sale.

If you have the right Stern games in your collection that you bought HUO after shopping carefully in the past two years you are probably safe from depreciation to the the high costs of the new games, the lack of finished code on the new games and the obvious manufacturing quality problems in the past two years.

The guys paying $9000 for new games are probably going to take a depreciation hit, but the high prices for new games will probably push many pinheads towards nice HUO games. Hence, prices on them will probably stay steady or increase.

No matter which way things go, I win.

If the market goes up, my games are worth more.

If the market goes down, I can pick up projects for less cash.

Resale value is going to have a deep impact on games 3-4 years and older. It will have little to no impact on newer games such as DI, POTC, Houdini, etc. Stern owners will suffer the greatest losses in terms of depreciation.

Ahhhhhhhh Impetus!!!

Sorry anytime I see that word this song just pops in my head.