(Topic ID: 92436)

John Popadiuk update thread……MAGIC GIRL, RAZA, AIW…..


By iceman44

5 years ago



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#1401 5 years ago
Quoted from roc-noc:

It is like buying a future year of fine but limited wine (yes I am taking a risk) and TWD LE is like buying a common Merlot at a local package store.

Well, you get to have the Merlot tonight with company at dinner .

It is what it is at this point.

#1402 5 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

50 games is still rare as F. I don't think that number will devalue MG if it ever gets made

50 is a lot more than 17 and will devalue it. However, at this point in the pre-order mania, people just need to consider it this way: unless you ask for a refund, obviously the pin is still worth what you're paying for it.

Whatever the production run, if you still buy the machine you are deciding that yes... that is the market value. So no change there. The only thing that takes a hit from an increased production run is John's reputation and his ability to get investors in future "limited" production runs. If he's not worried about that, then it's just something you have to live with as a buyer. In the end, you are still paying the going rate for the product and that's your choice. If the increased production run devalued the pin below 17k, you would obviously ask for a refund, right?

#1403 5 years ago
Quoted from YKpinballer:

50 is a lot more than 17 and will devalue it.

Doubt it. 50 for the entire planet is nothing. There are 200 BBBs that sold for $4500 NIB and are now sold for $30k NIB. MG will be fine. I'd be more concerned about it ever being built period than it's future profitability.

#1404 5 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

Doubt it. 50 for the entire planet is nothing. There are 200 BBBs that sold for $4500 NIB and are now sold for $30k NIB. MG will be fine. I'd be more concerned about it ever being built period than it's future profitability.

Just a theory, if all 200 bbb came up for sale at the same time they would not fetch 30k... Hypothetically

#1405 5 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

Doubt it. 50 for the entire planet is nothing. There are 200 BBBs that sold for $4500 NIB and are now sold for $30k NIB. MG will be fine. I'd be more concerned about it ever being built period than it's future profitability.

But in all seriousness people got on at 17k cause of the rarity and opportunity for a investment as well... That has to be part of their thinking on that purchase even if they don't admit it

#1406 5 years ago
Quoted from lllvjr:

But in all seriousness people got on at 17k cause of the rarity and opportunity for a investment as well... That has to be part of their thinking on that purchase even if they don't admit it

Oh, absolutely - but I said this from day 1 - the economics of this project never made sense. The amount of R&D, time and money that go into a full commercial game is done so because that game is expected to then move 1000's of units. To put those efforts into a run of 17? Pure insanity. Even just 50 is pure insanity! ...but, it is what it is that this point.

#1407 5 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

50 games is still rare as F. I don't think that number will devalue MG if it ever gets made.

This I completely agree with. There is negligible difference in rarity even at 100 games when spread around the world.

Quoted from frolic:

So, yeah, if that forced scarcity model gets mucked with, basically means my money was tied up for no reason

Quoted from roc-noc:

It is like buying a future year of fine but limited wine

Quoted from Cheeks:

Forgive me for quoting myself, but it is exactly why you're wrong about your statement. Just like BBB, MG absolutely CANNOT be $17K good. Nothing is. But people are counting on it being good and rare to justify the price.
So, people are hung up on the rarity because part of the value is tied to that. The more he makes, the less they are individually worth. Given that people bought at a certain premium level, they have every right to be concerned. Look what happened to people that bought a routed MM months before MMr was announced. Similar thing here.

I can't tell if I was misquoted or not, but I was not wrong. Everyone acknowledges the only reason to drop $10-17k on a Jpop pre-order is ROI.

I would be a little careful about MM comparison to any future Jpop game.... yes, rarity played an important role in its price, but the game was also commonly rated as the #1 DMD as well, and we are talking 3000 games originally produced, not 10's, and many MM's were fetching close to MG's $17k price point at their peak. In other words, a well executed game will still fetch $ even in runs of hundreds, or thousands.

I'm more of a fan of pinball played by all, I just want more people to enjoy what JPop has to offer.

#1408 5 years ago

The problem with producing only 50 machines is two fold IMO... 1) 50 machines all in the homes of avid collectors will do nothing to attract buyers outside the small circle of die hard pin fans who are already invested in this if they have the money, so where will this future market of potential buyers willing to spend $17k+ on a single machine come from? 2) $17k x 50 = $850k, and there is no way these machines can be built with the level of specificity the designs call for without taking a huge loss. Even if we discount all the labor costs involved, the lawyer fees (to file patents and whatnot) and cost of materials will overwhelm this budget. The company will start taking money out of investments made for future machines, and you'll effectively have a Ponzi scheme. It's ok to take a loss on some products, particularly as a fledgling company, but you need to start generating income quicker than this company seems able to or you run into serious issues.

#1409 5 years ago

I see what he was going for. He wanted to make something extremely rare and coveted, to cater to the super-rich collector. The problem is he had to get pre-orders to get the game going which ended up capping the price at 17k. In hindsight, if he didn't collect pre-orders and just made the 17 games with his own capital, he probably could have sold them for a lot more money judging from BBB prices. The trick is trying to guess the most economic way of doing it.

He probably could have sold between 10 and 14 @ 30k+ and held onto the rest for himself banking on a huge increase in value over time and letting one go to auction every year. If I wanted to make the most coveted machine in the world, that's how I would do it.

If you think there is no difference between 17 and 50, you do not understand high end collectors.

#1410 5 years ago

John once told me that the MG owners/buyers were wearing the "hard hats" in his new pinball company, he went on to explain that things created and learned from MG will be able to be used in RAZA... John didn't directly say it but seemed to imply this is why RAZA will cost 10k instead of the 17k MG costs. The MG buyers wearing the "hard hats" funded the development of the platform that will be used for RAZA & AIW.

-10
#1411 5 years ago

Looking at any pinball machine as an investment is just wrong. It's only become this way because people have made LOTS of money over the past few years. And in general, the depreciation on a pinball machine is nowhere near the depreciation of a car, furniture, a TV, jewelry, etc. But at the end of the day, it's a toy meant to entertain. If anyone buys an MG and expects to see it go up from 17K, I think that person is setting themselves up to be disappointed. Rare or not, the main thing going against all new pinball machines now is simple: nothing will remain hot forever as newer and newer pins will come out each year and push the innovation forward. Tron LE is a good example of this inevitable dip, or market adjustment if you will. And it's just like stock. If Tron goes from 6.5K to 10K that's a nice jump. But 10K still brings in A LOT more interest than 17K. If MG goes up, the potential buyer pool shrinks smaller and smaller. It's that simple.

Now I've compared pinball collecting to car collecting many times and I'll do it again. There is a market for super high end pins, just like super high end cars. I definitely think we're going to see pins that sell NIB for 20K soon. JJP started to show us what a 9K pin should look like, Lebowski is there too, but I think when MG is revealed people will see just where that extra $$$ went. You're going to see art like nothing else out there. You're going to see toys like never before. You're going to just see an overall package that places it a level above the rest. And while some will complain and say there's NO WAY a pin should cost that much or could ever be worth that much, I disagree. Labor, love, details and innovation cost a price. Anyone can make a Honda Civic faster than a Ferrari, but Ferrari's are special because of the total package. JPOP wants to make Pinball's first Ferrari. That's an awesome thing to witness, no?

#1412 5 years ago
Quoted from YKpinballer:

50 is a lot more than 17 and will devalue it. However, at this point in the pre-order mania, people just need to consider it this way: unless you ask for a refund, obviously the pin is still worth what you're paying for it.
Whatever the production run, if you still buy the machine you are deciding that yes... that is the market value. So no change there. The only thing that takes a hit from an increased production run is John's reputation and his ability to get investors in future "limited" production runs. If he's not worried about that, then it's just something you have to live with as a buyer. In the end, you are still paying the going rate for the product and that's your choice. If the increased production run devalued the pin below 17k, you would obviously ask for a refund, right?

I remember the day the first MG's were available. There were only 13 to be made. When I was thinking of buying 6 spots had gone and 7 were left. Part of the lure of buying was that only 13 games ever made. I thought about it but decided risks were too high.

Now there are 50. Still a small number but rarity determines value, if a product is good, so it's quite a big change.

#1413 5 years ago

I'm sick of people still saying "if" these machines are produced. These games are coming and we need to give our full support to John so he can get Zidware situated properly and continue to do what he does for the next couple of decades at least. He's the only person in the modern pinball environment that has my full trust of pumping out masterpieces. I'm sure in creating a new pinball company the first game is always going to be the hardest, and we are still getting there~

12
#1414 5 years ago
Quoted from kaneda:

Looking at any pinball machine as an investment is just wrong. It's only become this way because people have made LOTS of money over the past few years. And in general, the depreciation on a pinball machine is nowhere near the depreciation of a car, furniture, a TV, jewelry, etc. But at the end of the day, it's a toy meant to entertain. If anyone buys an MG and expects to see it go up from 17K, I think that person is setting themselves up to be disappointed. Rare or not, the main thing going against all new pinball machines now is simple: nothing will remain hot forever as newer and newer pins will come out each year and push the innovation forward. TRON LE is a good example of this inevitable dip, or market adjustment if you will. And it's just like stock. If Tron goes from 6.5K to 10K that's a nice jump. But 10K still brings in A LOT more interest than 17K. If MG goes up, the potential buyer pool shrinks smaller and smaller. It's that simple.
Now I've compared pinball collecting to car collecting many times and I'll do it again. There is a market for super high end pins, just like super high end cars. I definitely think we're going to see pins that sell NIB for 20K soon. JJP started to show us what a 9K pin should look like, Lebowski is there too, but I think when MG is revealed people will see just where that extra $$$ went. You're going to see art like nothing else out there. You're going to see toys like never before. You're going to just see an overall package that places it a level above the rest. And while some will complain and say there's NO WAY a pin should cost that much or could ever be worth that much, I disagree. Labor, love, details and innovation cost a price. Anyone can make a Honda Civic faster than a Ferrari, but Ferrari's are special because of the total package. JPOP wants to make Pinball's first Ferrari. That's an awesome thing to witness, no?

For a person that keeps prattling that the hobby isn't about money/investments, your posts sure do see to be centric to that theme. Here's an idea, leave what the hobby is to each individual to decide. Now kindly head on back to your village. It's late and they are getting worried.

-1
#1415 5 years ago
Quoted from Strange:

I'm sick of people still saying "if" these machines are produced. These games are coming and we need to give our full support of John so he can get Zidware situated properly and continue to do what he does for the next couple of decades at least. He's the only person in the modern pinball environment that has my full trust of pumping out masterpieces.

Amen. Everyone knows a pin of this magnitude needs at least 3-4 years development time. But it's definitely coming out.

11
#1416 5 years ago
Quoted from Strange:

I'm sick of people still saying "if" these machines are produced.

Why? None have been produced. It's been years. So - it's a HUGE "if".

Quoted from Strange:

These games are coming and we need to give our full support to John so he can get Zidware situated properly and continue to do what he does for the next couple of decades at least.

"We" don't have to blindly give anyone support who takes money for 3 titles yet hasn't mass produced one pinball machine. Him getting Zidware situated properly is on him & his business plan. It's not up to "us". John only shares info privately...that's the business plan he chose. Therefore, it's perfectly fair game for anyone on the "outside" to call it as we see it.

Quoted from Strange:

He's the only person in the modern pinball environment that has my full trust of pumping out masterpieces.

You're the perfect guy to give him money then. Good luck!

Quoted from Strange:

I'm sure in creating a new pinball company the first game is always going to be the hardest, and we are still getting there~

A huge part of a pinball company is a realistic business plan & a factory. Jpop has neither. He's an artist/designer and has approached this project as such. So - until there's a public reveal and/or someone gets a finished, fully functioning Magic Girl - I will continue to say "if".

Quoted from kaneda:

But it's definitely coming out.

"Definitely" is a word you cannot use with this project. Purely speculation and crossed fingers.

#1417 5 years ago

I believe Taylor Swift said it best when she said:

"'Cause the players gonna play, play, play, play, play
And the haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate"

do-no-reuse-taylor-swift-the-beat-bb36-sarah-barlow-billboard-650.jpg
14
#1418 5 years ago
Quoted from Strange:

I believe Taylor Swift said it best when she said:
"'Cause the players gonna play, play, play, play, play
And the haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate"

LOL...I love Pinside. Logic and a rational assessment of situations = "hater". Life and reality isn't as simplistic as a Taylor Swift song.

#1419 5 years ago
Quoted from Strange:

I believe Taylor Swift said it best when she said:
"'Cause the players gonna play, play, play, play, play
And the haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate"

do-no-reuse-taylor-swift-the-bea... 19 KB

Better yet, can us grown ups stop using the word "hater". Good god.

#1420 5 years ago

I'll sell my RAZA spot.

I'm $6500 in and will sell for $ 6300.00

Any Takers?

#1421 5 years ago

Hater is a pejorative that is used to deflect from the point of an opposing view and make it about the person extolling the view. Every single time you see the word "hater", the person tossing it out has already lost.

Most people don't care enough to hate. I know I don't.

-1
#1422 5 years ago
Quoted from hank527:

I'll sell my RAZA spot.
I'm $6500 in and will sell for $ 6300.00
Any Takers?

I'll gamble with a bid of $1000.

#1423 5 years ago
Quoted from Strange:

I believe Taylor Swift said it best when she said ...

You lost me right there.

#1424 5 years ago
Quoted from SadSack:

I'll gamble with a bid of $1000.

You certainly live up to your name.... Very sad!

#1425 5 years ago

Jpop is a great designer. I can't wait to play these machines.

However, I don't really get the "i haven't gotten a response for a refund in two months what should I do" people. You can find a lawyer who can write a demand letter, and I'd say 80% of the time that solves your problem and gets the ball rolling. Either wait, or don't.

#1426 5 years ago
Quoted from kaneda:

Amen. Everyone knows a pin of this magnitude needs at least 3-4 years development time. But it's definitely coming out.

So if everyone knows how long it would take, why did the designer promise a timeline that was no where close to this? Lol...

#1427 5 years ago
Quoted from Robotoes:

However, I don't really get the "i haven't gotten a response for a refund in two months what should I do" people. You can find a lawyer who can write a demand letter, and I'd say 80% of the time that solves your problem and gets the ball rolling. Either wait, or don't.

Why hire a lawyer when you might get the same effect for free from a simple Pinside post?

#1428 5 years ago
Quoted from Strange:

I believe Taylor Swift said it best when she said:
"'Cause the players gonna play, play, play, play, play
And the haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate"

do-no-reuse-taylor-swift-the-bea... 19 KB

Strange, I gotta say your name is very becoming.

QSS

#1429 5 years ago
Quoted from QuickSilverShelby:

Strange, I gotta say your name is very becoming.
QSS

Shake It Off! Popadiuk! (P.S.~ Taylor Swift is Hot)

#1430 5 years ago
Quoted from Strange:

(P.S.~ Taylor Swift is Hot)

Last year's Victoria's Secret Runway Show

image.jpg

image.jpg

#1431 5 years ago

Isn't that last pic the referee on the WCS94 playfield??

#1432 5 years ago
Quoted from Coyote:

Isn't that last pic the referee on the WCS94 playfield??

Amen to that, the close-up makes even more sense.

image.jpg

#1433 5 years ago

BTW - So I don't continue to derail this thread.... The "Magic Girl" on the MG playfield is going to give that referee on the WCS playfield a serious run for her money.

-1
#1434 5 years ago
Quoted from Multiball1:

BTW - So I don't continue to derail this thread.... The "Magic Girl" on the MG playfield is going to give that referee on the WCS playfield a serious run for her money.

At 10x the price I should hope so

Quoted from SadSack:I'll gamble with a bid of $1000.

Honestly I was tempted to start a similar thread, but thought it would do more harm than good. What is the "going rate" for one of these spots, given the current climate?

I was tempted to start the bidding at $1000; this seems comically low for a position that is paid up to $6500.

However $6300 also seems really... optimistic.

#1435 5 years ago
Quoted from BC_Gambit:

However $6300 also seems really... optimistic.

I'm hoping this will change when/if MG is shown this month and RAZA shown in January (that's what we've been told).

Right now, yeah, its hard to generate interest when there is ZERO public information for the game.

#1436 5 years ago
Quoted from frolic:

I'm hoping this will change when/if MG is shown this month and RAZA shown in January (that's what we've been told).
Right now, yeah, its hard to generate interest when there is ZERO public information for the game.

Yeah, that is a big variable. If John manages to whiff the expected Jan/Feb reveal as bad as he did at expo, 1G might be the going rate...

HOPEFULLY he knocks it out of the park so bad anybody who wants out can unload their positions. If the hype train goes fast enough, who knows they might be able to be sold at a profit (party like its 2012?).

#1437 5 years ago

So is 1K officially junk bond status? Poor JPOP... but he kinda dug his own hole. Time to make games.

#1438 5 years ago
Quoted from metallik:

So is 1K officially junk bond status? Poor JPOP... but he kinda dug his own hole. Time to make games.

He's junk bond right now and that can change overnight with the "big reveal" that he is promising on both MG and RAZA. Two weeks away!

I just canceled my TBL pre order and am still waiting on THLE refund check, should be next week.

If MG is what I think its going to be based on what I've seen and heard, at 50 produced, I want one.

#1439 5 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

He's junk bond right now and that can change overnight with the "big reveal" that he is promising on both MG and RAZA. Two weeks away!
I just canceled my TBL pre order and am still waiting on THLE refund check, should be next week.
If MG is what I think its going to be based on what I've seen and heard, at 50 produced, I want one.

Ice what made you bail on TBL? I am also still waiting for my Hobbit refund been nearly 6 weeks.

#1440 5 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

I just canceled my TBL pre order and am still waiting on THLE refund check, should be next week.

I am very close...

Going to party in NY to play again. Its more about the pre order and wait thing. I just dont think I am that kind of guy.

Anything over 7k needs to be done and blowing my balls off or I think I will wait it out.

#1441 5 years ago
Quoted from Hwawonyu:

I am very close...
Going to party in NY to play again. Its more about the pre order and wait thing. I just dont think I am that kind of guy.
Anything over 7k needs to be done and blowing my balls off or I think I will wait it out.

If it wasn't my dream theme I'd prob bail too, due to pre-order fatigue. I'm going to stick with it though, purely because it's Lebowski, I'm in on the original price, and I get the chrome & rug.

#1442 5 years ago

I've been in on day one, and it is my first non-Stern preorder and I'm pretty much fine.. They haven't done anything wrong with TBL that would make me concerned it's going to be years before I get it. BOP2.0 has had some missteps true.. but.. TBL has prototype games they dumped in front of the public 6 months before shipping. quite happy.

#1443 5 years ago
Quoted from Concretehardt:

Ice what made you bail on TBL? I am also still waiting for my Hobbit refund been nearly 6 weeks.

I just contacted Jen this am and she said my check was going out next week. She responded right away as usual. Send Jen an email Concrete

Customer service and communication from JJP is A+++

I also just got an email back from Barry at DP stating they are processing the refund.

My only thinking there on TBL is with all the "pre order" BS going on and uncertainty with when and such I just decided to do what I should have done in the first place, pick one up later and not worry about the additional cost.

#1444 5 years ago

I was in on TBL but cancelled because i'm sick of pre-ordering and want to stop the madness. I will buy one on release. Also got out of Predator last year (thank god).

Besides RAZA, which I'm apparently stuck with since there are no refunds and no takers (not selling for $1k ), I've got a Full Throttle coming but at least that was only $1k deposit and was put in at the end of development, not the start, and I should have it soon.

I'll probably do that with Stern again, knowing I'll have my game 4 weeks later, and if Heighway delivers, do it again for their titles on release, but no more throwing money in based on a fantasy.

#1445 5 years ago

I too cancelled all my other preorders (except the ones that I'm stuck in), and refrain from preordering Alien which I'll definitely buy when it delivers. So sick of all these preorder bullshit, especially TBL is not limited anyway.

#1446 5 years ago
Quoted from frolic:

I was in on TBL but cancelled because i'm sick of pre-ordering and want to stop the madness. I will buy one on release. Also got out of Predator last year (thank god).
Besides RAZA, which I'm apparently stuck with since there are no refunds and no takers (not selling for $1k ), I've got a Full Throttle coming but at least that was only $1k deposit and was put in at the end of development, not the start, and I should have it soon.
I'll probably do that with Stern again, knowing I'll have my game 4 weeks later, and if Heighway delivers, do it again for their titles on release, but no more throwing money in based on a fantasy.

We are on the same page across the board, except for Jpop, not gonna give up on that one, even if I could.

#1447 5 years ago
Quoted from YKpinballer:

50 is a lot more than 17 and will devalue it. However, at this point in the pre-order mania, people just need to consider it this way: unless you ask for a refund, obviously the pin is still worth what you're paying for it.
Whatever the production run, if you still buy the machine you are deciding that yes... that is the market value. So no change there. The only thing that takes a hit from an increased production run is John's reputation and his ability to get investors in future "limited" production runs. If he's not worried about that, then it's just something you have to live with as a buyer. In the end, you are still paying the going rate for the product and that's your choice. If the increased production run devalued the pin below 17k, you would obviously ask for a refund, right?

I disagree. BBB didn't go down all that much. 183 added to the original 11. Took awhile but the price shot back up where people were offering for BBB back when there was only 11.

#1448 5 years ago
Quoted from frolic:

I was in on TBL but cancelled because i'm sick of pre-ordering and want to stop the madness. I will buy one on release.

The fact that DP doesn't require pre-ordering of TBL is refreshing. They've done the reveal, reviews are good, there are no pre-determined production limits, and the game simply sells itself. It should be that simple.

#1449 5 years ago
Quoted from CaptainNeo:

I disagree. BBB didn't go down all that much. 183 added to the original 11. Took awhile but the price shot back up where people were offering for BBB back when there was only 11.

My understanding was that there were a total of 222 of BBB.

IPDB says 191 plus the original 14 but then I thought there were a few more to get to 222?

Still 4 times more than MG

#1450 5 years ago
Quoted from CaptainNeo:

I disagree. BBB didn't go down all that much. 183 added to the original 11. Took awhile but the price shot back up where people were offering for BBB back when there was only 11

It's all speculation anyway, only applicable if he actually had the capital ahead of time to do a tiny limited run. Being capped by the pre-orders forced it into the current model (a run of 50+). I'm not sure what you disagree with exactly, but if you think 200 BBB are worth the same as if they only made 17, I guess there's not much else I can say. I disagree, but the only way to find out would have been for JPOP to pull MG off in its original intent, which he couldn't.

I do know this though... when he said he was only making 17, he was getting preorders at a 17k price point. RAZA is a higher production run more comparable to BBB numbers and selling at about 60% of that (10k). So I think what you're saying would mean RAZA is undervalued by 7k per pin. Someone should let JPOP know.

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