Since I like to look at both sides of the debate, and since there are no 'pro John' supporters here. I would just like to point out the possibility and how there is still a chance for these games.
I will just look at MG because that's the first game the alpha game, and should in any case be completed first or most likely to be completed. And I think it's the better looking game as well.
I'm not saying it looks likely, but that it's still possible, maybe very possible for John to build MG pins and continue from there.
I'm not putting any timeframe into this, because John is horrible at time management as we have seen since it's now 6 months post Expo and counting. But look at Nemo even The hobbit, pins take more time that planned. But just because John passed his timeframe, doesn't mean it can never be completed.
My premises are:
- John has done *some* groundwork already. He has cabinets, art, maybe working mechanisms, maybe rule tree (that need to be coded) maybe some animations or at least directions that need to be implemented, probably a whitewood.
- let's give John some credit and say he's about halfway done.
- let's say John is not completely out of money, let's say he has collected $800,000 from RAZA $300,000 from MG customers and let's say $100,000 from AIW. That's $1.2M
-Let's say he burns $12,000 per month for 4 years that's $576K round up to $600,000 so he still has $600,000 left to finish the work and another 4 years worth of cash burn left. I just picked $12k a month as arbitrary, he could have started out much lower so it is conceivable that he has only spent $600,000 if not less. Note: if this was the case, it would have made sense for him to show Ice his bank accounts to show that he is still very solvent.
Now going forward:
-let's say he can make MG at least as good likely better tha CV. I say better because it's 20 years later with advancement in computers and graphics and he has better cabinets and hinges and likely better sound etc,, I would say it's a cinch that he could build a pin better than CV with the superior materials afforded by $16,000 price tag. So all I'm asking is he makes a nice pin that's nice looking, and high quality art and materials that plays as good or better than CV. I think that is possible as Ben did AMH and the NEMO pin had far far less money and they came out. So given John 4-8 years he *should* be able to top CV.
- let's say it costs John $10k to build each MG. Ben said Predator probably should cost nearly $5k to build, so I'm giving Jonn double that. I think $10k just to build the pins is realistic.
- let's say John removes the cap or has a soft cap on the number to be sold, let's say he will sell 50 MG pins at $16k. And let's say the first 25 people still owe something like $4k each.
So that's 25 new pins at $16k equals $400k (plus 25 prior owners still owing $100k) that comes out to $500k new money to build 50 pins and I said $10k per pin equals $500k.
So my theory, he still has $600k left to finish the pins and $500k new money to build the pins.
My contention is that when John does finish the pins, people will still pay $16k if they are good! I would pay for a pin I knew was being built. I'm not saying I'd pay anything up front to John, but if he was building amazing looking MG and it was actually a good fun layout and still very limited edition, I would really consider and might actually buy one.
There you have it folks that's my glass is half full argument.