(Topic ID: 290919)

JJP Toy Story (any rumor confirmations?)

By Trojanlaw

2 years ago


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#2934 1 year ago
Quoted from Jackrabbt:

Spooky is looking a lot smarter today. For Halloween and Ultraman they showed no pictures, no video, nothing. FOMO caused the titles to sell out when the order lines opened

A shot they've fired and won't be able to repeat after failing to deliver a highly desirable product.

People aren't going to get hard locked into $$ without even knowing the name... and all the TS4 angst would have been the same once they know the name.

All this extremism is the same before every freaking release. Let's actually get some real exposure to the game.

#3108 1 year ago
Quoted from tbutler6:

How is that possible-? Good for them i suppose,

Put a limited amount for sale on your website.. so people buy into the hype.

Mission Accomplished.

#3130 1 year ago

video shows all LEs being built..

#3135 1 year ago

Rules map
Screen Shot 2022-06-14 at 1.18.04 PM.pngScreen Shot 2022-06-14 at 1.18.04 PM.png

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#3161 1 year ago

My guess is the licensing costs was crushing to the BOM.. so they stick with the 'no SE edition' launch plan to push their ASP up.

.. but even while they said they made the game to be kid friendly and approachable... where a SE would have made a lot more sense.

I still think they have a SE in their back pocket... just deciding if they actually launch it based on market reaction to their 'new' prices.

#3218 1 year ago
Quoted from badgerx23:

Not much to cut out of the machine to make a SE

- Remove Powdercoat
- Replace lit backboard with something more static
- Remove hotrails and replace with white lights (like GNR)
- Replace sculpted curio cabinet with something cheaper
- No Shaker
- No Invisiglass

$10,500

Other, but more complex options
- Rework ball lock to reduce mechs
- replace spinning disc with virtual version

#3220 1 year ago
Quoted from MikeS:

My thought is that the SE model wasn't nearly as profitable as the other models, yet it takes just as long to build so it makes sense to dump it since production speed is such a big concern these days.

It's basically the same concept.. force buyers to the higher priced models to drive up your ASP and focus both demand and your resources there on the higher margin product. My point was simply that a SE now could amplify angst over the price bump too. Where if you simply hold back the SE.. and release it only if 'you need to', you do both. You drive demand to the higher priced products now AND can look like a savior by offering a lower priced alternative after the fact by 'listening to feedback'

#3224 1 year ago
Quoted from kool1:

This>>> They have priced themselves out of the market.
Operators will never make any money on a $12000 machine.

Operators make money by recurring coin drop exceeding (depreciation costs+operating costs) - not by breaking even on the sale price of a game.

Buying a $12k piece of equipment and selling it for $8k two years later only costs them $4k - not $12k.

#3300 1 year ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

Eh... mostly.
Here is an example.
https://pinside.com/pinball/market/classifieds/archive/135292
This is the G&R SE that was on location at Ocelot. It got 3500 plays and the operator sold it for about what he paid for it after a year and a half. In that time it got about 3500 plays, so maybe $3000 in revenue if you count the free games.
But how many people drove to the building and bought beer just to play it? How many people came to league night and bough beer because of it? How many people stayed longer and bought beer because this was there?
I am under the impression coin drop on games doesn't really make much if any money. What it does do is bring people into the building who spend money on more expensive things.

As the operator at Ocelot.. I feel I know more about the economics of GnR at our location than you

But as a practical rule of thumb.. if you find pinball at some non-pinball specific place, the games are not likely owned by the venue, and the operator is not getting a cut of the venue's regular operation

#3308 1 year ago
Quoted from kool1:

Yes but the upfront cost is almost 2 Stern Pros. There is a reason most operators don't buy premium/LEs.

and there are reasons to buy premiums too - which is why we have a room with lots of them.

The point is Operators care more about what a game MAKES than they care about the upfront cost. That is why locations can have coin pusher and Halo games that cost 20k. Capital costs can be financed and equipment has residual value. You make money by getting money IN - that requires up front costs and vendors will pay it.

We start pushing away on prices when the ROI isn't there. If a game has a high residual value I care less about the upfront cost... it's the opportunity cost that it's really competing with. If that game is only making 1/2 of what another game would make in it's place.. that's when it's a problem... because it's not making what it could.

If a game costs 2x more, and doesn't create any draw or additional revenue.. then that's a problem. The point of this entire discussion is initial investment is not the deciding factor - it's what the game makes vs what it costs to own.

#3315 1 year ago
Quoted from PinStalker:

Once you know your game is littered with $10 worth of cake toppers..... can you ever look at it the same way again?

Oh my... hate to burst your bubble.. but the only molded items on Lord of the Rings are a bunch of figures Stern bought off the toy shelf for like $10!

#3320 1 year ago
Quoted from tacreno:

I believe this is the why the lack of toys on the playfield and why the game appears to be geared towards children.

So.. you think Disney forced JJP to make a kid focused Toy Story game... instead of JJP picking a theme they knew was kid centric to start with?

#3323 1 year ago
Quoted from astro_judge:

I also think you're overestimating how much a machine's theme will affect the draw. Pinball people will show up wherever the games are and casual players will drop credits into anything that aligns with their interests just for the novelty of playing. Kids are just as likely to be into Stranger Things, Mando / SW, Avengers, TMNT, Jurassic Park, Rick & Morty... Trying to distinguish between "Kid Themes" and "Adult Themes" is hilarious now that companies like Disney and Marvel have erased any divide between the two to take advantage of Disney Adult nostalgia.

I think you grossly overestimate how much you think you know about the casual pinball customers. Theme is everything to get them to try a game.

Kids run past every title you just mentioned to play Super Mario Bros when they've never even seen the pin before.

#3334 1 year ago
Quoted from dnaman:

But that was a $5k CDN NIB pin. Apples and oranges to me.

Also missing from this story... any boasting from JJP about the figurines as if they are driving the value in the pin. They simply list 'Officially Licensed Toys' - not 'custom sculpts' or boasting anything else.

#3337 1 year ago
Quoted from tacreno:

Maybe but thats an odd decision from JJP. This price point is a little high to make good money on location which means the target audience is 30-60 years old.

Customers have no idea what a game costs and doesn't factor into their decision to play or not. So again.. the price point has little to nothing to do with the draw to customers as a location game.

JJP made a point to also call out home buyers who want a kid friendly game in their house. There are plenty of retail consumers out there who buy pins based on theme and the desire to have a game.

#3352 1 year ago
Quoted from astro_judge:

Yeah, that's exactly what I meant when I said casual players drop money into whatever happens to line up with their interests. I was trying to say that I don't think the presence of a specific theme like Toy Story vs. Godzilla would affect the type of crowd the venue draws like sataneatscheese mentioned with the Birthday Parties vs. Beer argument.

They are related - but it's not the right sequence of things.

Obviously we pick what themes we put at a venue based on what the venue is, the clientel, and what we are trying to attract.

If I'm at a bounce house place.. yes, the owner may want a Toy Story over a Walking Dead. But putting a Toy Story at a dive bar is not going to make it into a kid's party spot.

Theme is very important to attracting players. Putting the right equipment in the right venue is also dependent on the venue's aspects as well.

#3358 1 year ago
Quoted from kool1:

Kind of my point - even the same coins going into a $6900 Godzilla Pro. Much better return.
I don't think TS4 will draw in more money. I would argue less.

If your point was TS isn't going to earn - that's your opinion and speculation you are free to.

But your post was that the game cost was the issue itself - and that alone isn't what moves the needle. COIN DROP drives behavior - not equipment up-front costs. Something hobbyists struggle to grasp.

Initial Costs are largely offset by residual value. A category that JJP games in particular have done very well in.

Know what kills a game more than initial costs? Parts and downtime - because THEY LIMIT COIN DROP and drive up costs that will never be recovered in resale.

10
#3384 1 year ago
Quoted from jazc4:

Wait for Cary Hardy to review it. He won't pull any punches.

Waiting for a review from someone just watching the same videos you can watch?

#3411 1 year ago
Quoted from yancy:

Rubs me the wrong way when a software feature that could be included in all models is purposely held out of the cheaper model, especially when "cheap" in this case is 12 freaking grand. It's actually more work for them NOT to include it; now they have to maintain separate callout code for each model.

No you don't - it's a simple flag/toggle idea. Simple conditional logic.

Features based on software or entitlement is nothing nefarious. We pay for what things are worth - not what they cost.

#3412 1 year ago
Quoted from epthegeek:

But no people. JJPs factory pics rarely show anybody working on anything - if they’re even in the picture. Always thought that was odd. Respecting the privacy of their line employees? Or really don’t have many people assembling?

It's hard to film when the environment is loud and disruptive.

Same reason auto youtuber's film when their shop is idle or isolated for filming.

#3416 1 year ago
Quoted from yancy:

Yeah, you toggle the different callout code. It's work to write both flavors, and the toggle.

You're talking one additional check and then simply applying to which media file you load (if at all). Non-issue. It's a construct used everywhere and not seen as additional burden. The work is in the testing. Which you are doing anyways and the decision to have different game editions in the first place drove the increase.

Nothing to see here...

-7
#3420 1 year ago
Quoted from yancy:

I'm saying it's more work. Seems like you agree. But in typical Flynn fashion, you found a way to disagreeably agree.

It's no additional burden to implement. "It's a construct used everywhere and not seen as additional burden"

By your logic "using the toy story 4 name is more work because they had to use two more characters than if they just say 'toy story'" -- Technically correct, but practically meaningless.

-6
#3433 1 year ago
Quoted from yancy:

You don't think it's work to decide which callouts to implement in which version, which ones you can get away with omitting, which ones feel "extra," then updating two different sets of callouts when rules change, or changing your mind and realizing, "oh, we really need callout X in both versions," etc.?
Have you ever worked on any kind of creative project before?

How's your back after carrying those goalposts so far?

The topic was a simple audio call omission difference between versions.

This implementation is trivial. No Product Owner would tell his marketing team "No I won't give you this feature that will drive hundreds in thousands in revenue because it requires me to add a conditional on my media playout line". This is comically obtuse.

My god.. you must think randomization takes an army of coders! I could teach your mother to add this feature to an existing codebase.

And yes, I do this work and these decisions for real driving millions a month in revenue on my product alone.

#3496 1 year ago
Quoted from metallik:

The question was, is it more work?
The answer is yes.
The amount of additional work was not a topic, but you're so damned insistent on never admitting you're wrong you just can't accept that, so here comes the paragraphs of BS.
Yup, typical.

Did you log your timesheet with that post? I mean… its work following me around all the time…

Make up nonsensical shit - people will call it out.

#3501 1 year ago
Quoted from kool1:

All I'm saying is 2 equally attractive games will pull in similar money but if you can say buy 2 Godzillas for 1 Toy Story your return on investment could be double.
It's about effective use of capital and I would argue that $12000 pins aren't the most effective use of capital unless they are getting played substantially more.
Down time I totally get!!

There are other effects besides the game’s individual earning too. If you run a pinball spot and are the only one to have the game in your area… it is a location draw. It will bring players to your spot just looking for that game because they want to experience it.

So it will boost other games… a halo game. Obviously this effect is not something you do on every game - but highlights reasoning beyond simple ‘it can get a Godzilla for 1/3 less’ or whatever.

Kind of why we have a big lebowski on route even though it costs 2x what another game costs.

Obviously all this logic relies on the game being a draw to players.

We will be putting a toy story on location

#3502 1 year ago
Quoted from JSC:

I don’t think it’s decent to only release information after they sold out of 15k CEs with non refundable deposits. That trend in pinball needs to stop.

Yeah - sucky and totally within their control

#3505 1 year ago
Quoted from bgwilly31:

This CE outside of maybe DI. Literally has the least amount of features. Its close with Wonka But Wonka has the Super Physical Ball lock mech. This has zero gameplay changes.

Jjp games have generally always been the same game play. Recently wonka and gnr broke that trend. So back to same game play isn’t that shocking.

It’s ironic that this is the point so many bag on stern for…. Yet so many then bag on lack of differences. No way to win

#3652 1 year ago
Quoted from galore2112:

Other new pinball machines are just way too cheap, if it’s possible to flip them for profit.
If people pay $12k for a GZ Premium because Stern can’t build them fast enough (!), then it’s simply dumb for JJP (or Stern their GZ) to sell their TS4 for less and you get a mediocre (but solid) TS4 for $12k.
If these barren JJP TS4 somehow sell for $17k (LE) and $20k+ (CE) on pinside, the next mediocre JJP pinball machine will start at $17k. That’s where the market apparently is.

The stupidity of a few does not set the price tolerance of the many

#3754 1 year ago

We should have our game on route this week for those who want to actually play sone pinball

#3757 1 year ago

The place to be!

#3802 1 year ago

When you get your shipping details or game... come on over! - https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/we-are-all-toys-the-jjp-toy-story-4-owners-club

#3803 1 year ago
Quoted from wackenhut:

Has anyone noticed that the people trying to flip the game are basically relatively new Pinsiders?

Opportunity draws people in... plus, you have people that create alt-identities to sell too.

#3816 1 year ago
Quoted from KozMckPinball:

So much money for a plastic fork. I think the movie's dummy would have been a good bash feature or pop-up troll, ala Rudy.

Gabby Gabby is the villian/antagonist in the film... think that's why Disney was ok with it being the bash toy (even if she is kinda redeemed)

#3819 1 year ago
Quoted from PanzerFreak:

A couple people have said there are magnets under the playfield similar to Wonka (6 in that game under the playfield) that interact with the ball. Is this true? I see no reference to them as a feature.

The manual is already online to confirm for yourself

https://marketing.jerseyjackpinball.com/ts/Toy_Story_4_Manual_1_0_May_2022.pdf

Spoiler - no magnets

#3826 1 year ago
Quoted from iamabearsfan:

So I am getting conflicting information if CE's have sold out. Did they? Or just JJP and the distributors are still unknown?

Basically that

JJP had a small alotment on the web which sold out basically immediately. Distributors have their own methods/logic to selling CEs so you'd have to check with them.

#3898 1 year ago
Quoted from yancy:i got u fam
[quoted image]

I hope you sent that to [email protected] offering to replace their retiring head of design

#4147 1 year ago
Quoted from Haymaker:

Tim Allen has his own recording booth at his shop. They just sent him the lines and he sent the files back.

Come on people... did you even listen to Joe Katz in the video made available on launch day? Here's a hint.. he mentioned the recording session...

#4151 1 year ago
Quoted from honkbahh:

No CEs have sold yet. Only the deposits.

Ok, would saying 'all CEs are spoken for' satisfy your need to split hairs over this?

Everyone understands the point about deposits vs paid invoices - it doesn't change the availability topic for the title or that JJP has the buyers lined up.

This argument is splitting hairs to try to defend some tiny ground that is meaningless.

#4285 1 year ago
Quoted from galore2112:

The market for parents with kids driving to barcades during the day doesn’t exist.

That maybe your neck of the woods - but that’s why they call it anecdotal evidence.

Breweries do exactly what you say doesn’t happen / because in many areas breweries can’t have late hours

#4300 1 year ago
Quoted from galore2112:

Yeah, I’m sure that it’s a hit in breweries where 10 year olds hang during the day enjoying a sampler of craft beers.

Put down the shovel dude... it's a scene clearly you don't understand.

In most locales Breweries operate under different ABC laws than bars - hence they tend to have very different 'product' that they put forth. Breweries and wineries often cater to open, casual environments. Picnics, dogs, kids, parties, etc. Couples bring their kids and the kids play while the adults adult. In this area, they are one of the most popular places for adults to go and know they can bring their kids too. Most are busiest on Weekends during the DAY - not your typical after dinner bar hours.

See this pac-man and driving game in the background? That's just the start of a whole line of vids and other kiddie focused games in this brewery.
281380267_2188233581345871_259396942343026717_n (resized).jpeg281380267_2188233581345871_259396942343026717_n (resized).jpeg

#4302 1 year ago
Quoted from Beechwood:

I was at a brewery on a Saturday, middle of the day. Probably 50 adults, they have about 25 pins. I played for an hour and a half and I think I saw maybe 2 or three others play a game or 2, Taxi and T2 and DE SW. GZ, EHOH, Mando, all sat unplayed. The shuffle bowler was played more than the pins! I was a bit surprised.

Casuals vs pin-heads. Very different things appeal to people and some hobbyists just can't get their head out of their butt enough to know the world includes more types than just them.

Some of our best earners are games hobbyists turn their nose up at... even some games I hate to death.. but they have the curb appeal to pull people in and the play mechanics are catered to their style enough to keep them coming back.

What works for a location can be very different than what works in a collector's basement.. which can be very different from what works in a 'gameroom buyers' basement.

#4313 1 year ago
Quoted from PtownPin:

Any luck with electronic darts? Theres a local place here, and that always seems really busy

There are dart leagues/etc still in the area with spots with lots of proper setups, but that seems like a specialized things - I've not seen any casuals play much more than the classic dart boards in other spots.

#4315 1 year ago
Quoted from SLCpunk2113:

The biggest sin is the price. The ONLY reason this hobby has a future is because arcade bars are hooking new players. At JJP prices it doesn’t really make sense to put these games on location. JJP is clearly here for while the getting sis good and not for the long haul.

That was Gary Stern's spiel when he was trying to hold onto the 4k price point. JJP proved him wrong, and now pinball, both on location and in homes is bigger than it has been in almost 30 years.

Pinball is still cheap in comparison to most coinOp equipment. The key is to make them EARN - not make them cheap.

#4317 1 year ago
Quoted from Haymaker:

Yes we all know SMB and south park ect earn big time on location. Those don't cost 12k

What's the monthly interest on 12k?
What's my take on the game monthly?
What's the residual value of the piece when I sell it?

People are focused on all the wrong numbers.

#4342 1 year ago
Quoted from PtownPin:

I can see JJP announcing another game by years end. My guess is TS4 sales are way down compared to GNR. I think JJP's strategy is to build less games for more profit and move onto the next title.

A pretty bad strategy when costs are so front-loaded and your product line consists of... 1 maybe 2 things to sell.

It pretty much makes you into a bang or bust company.

#4343 1 year ago
Quoted from zaphX:

If they had a standard wouldn't they have announced it?

Why does Stern ship LEs before premiums? Capturing the money before it has a chance to flee...

#4347 1 year ago
Quoted from Xelz:

To be fair, Stern also produces pro models before LEs to get an operator-friendly model to locations quicker. With no standard TS4, the LE is the operator-friendly model in this case.

Completely different discussions. The Operator games are pros because Stern has them... the same 'get some games on location' strategy would apply if stern used a different tier too.

The question was 'why hold back a standard?' -- for the reason of not offering your lowest price first... especially if you are not sure you want to offer it. Every sales negotiation starts high and only goes low if you need to. JJP started high and can be holding back a lesser model as a fail-safe in case they NEED to.

Stern makes LEs early for the same kind of reasoning... push buyers to your higher priced items vs giving them more outs.

#4525 1 year ago
Quoted from adol75:

So I bet the Disney Company bought 100 Toy Story CE, they're gonna put them everywhere in their parks, hotels, boats

Have you seen a disney arcade this century? It’s not pretty

#4526 1 year ago
Quoted from wesman:

If Stern, AP, Spooky or any other manufacturer produced this, wouldn't it be even more harshly viewed than it is now?

Paging Led Zeppelin….

-1
#5066 1 year ago
Quoted from Xelz:

I'd find it hard to believe that TS4 didn't cost more to develop than most pins. Those JP de Win video assets are best-in-class. But development costs are fixed. The variable costs on TS4 shouldn't be significantly higher than many if not most other pins. And that includes royalties, which any licensed theme likely has to pay, including Stern's royalties to Disney for Mando.

Why would you think things like royalties... that are completely negotiated fees.. and vary depending on what you actually use... as fixed or similar between games?

Or even that development costs are fixed?

That's why companies have a BUDGET - so they can try to control where they do spend their money and ultimately they must decide what they want to invest in and what margins they will accept.

Just look at the audio assets in Sterns... notice the pattern of having ONE voice actor? These are budgetary choices... not consistencies for pinball between companies.

#5068 1 year ago
Quoted from PinMonk:

That's like $200-250 off the BOM cost. Ain't gonna move the needle.

Yet those kinds of differences have generally been the norm for JJP tiers.. until we got GNR and Wonka.

Drop the Powder, drop the shaker, drop invisiglass.. this is how they've always done it.

1 week later
#5326 1 year ago
Quoted from Xelz:

Because that's literally the definition of a fixed cost. Econ 101: fixed costs = you pay it once regardless of how many units you produce. Variable cost = increases when you produce more units.
Cost to develop/design the pin is fixed. (Technically it's also sunk once you've spent it.) Royalties, manufacturing labor, parts, etc. are variable costs.
Edit: If JJP's royalty rates and licensing fees for TS4 are significantly higher than Stern's for Mando, then JJP needs to fire their BD department.

Ok, I understand your statement now about fixed within its own project, but none of this backs up your assertion about their costs relative to other games.

Besides, your distinction about per unit vs per project doesn't really say a whole lot without the key point of volume. Dev costs are 'fixed', but pricing still relies on expected volumes and lifecycles.

And Mando includes a bunch of C-listers... with only one person doing custom audio. At least with TS4, JJP seems to have learned not to skimp on the presence of key actors and media. Their sound design is still debatable.. but seems to fit the carnival theme.

#5331 1 year ago
Quoted from Joe_Blasi:

end users can print there own and we save the cost of that.

Fact of the matter is - it's something we need for ownership, and the company getting them printed in volume is cheaper than home users paying a print shop to make one for them. So all this does is push the burden to the customer.

#5338 1 year ago
Quoted from PinMonk:

In JJP's case, it wouldn't be so bad if they hadn't had EXQUISITE manuals with great parts and assembly diagrams when Butch was doing them. But they did. And then they fired Butch, because they don't value pinball manuals now. And the fall from grace comparing Butch's manuals to whatever operation they've farmed it out to now is DIRE. I mean, who omits the MAIN FLIPPER ASSEMBLIES from the parts section?

unfortunately it's been such a recurring problem with all the manufacturers.. even found some garbage in the 90s wpc stuff like omitting major assemblies like ramps. Stern was decent in the 2000s, then went to garbage (Metallica era)... now we get 'manual lite' where at least wiring connection points are covered.

I mean, would it kill them to have someone in the field review what they have, or at least revise them after release based on need/feedback.

#5348 1 year ago
Quoted from Damonator:

I hope flippers got super screwed on HWN/UM and I hope they get screwed again on TS4. It was worth the *temporary* UM value hit for me as I won't sell mine for a long time so I don't care. But if they keep losing money, they leave our hobby and go screw up some other hobby.

walt-kelly-pogo (resized).jpegwalt-kelly-pogo (resized).jpeg

#5356 1 year ago
Quoted from PinMonk:

I think it comes down to "don't care."

I think it's "we can get away with it" and they use the savings for margins -- Just like all the companies are getting away with abysmal post-sales part availability... etc. No one is selling on service/reliability/TCO. I will say Stern has done well generally with it's mechanical engineering for servicability.. but failing on all the other fronts. Having equipment down for weeks to months just isn't a way to do business. If this wasn't a passion industry I'm sure everyone would have rolled on years ago.

They don't care because buyers re-enforce they don't need to. Alas the world in general is making this harder to harder to counteract too :/

#5362 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Says the guy who just routed a TS4 LE ?

and? Like I said... passion industry. If I were chasing pure ROI we wouldn't do what we do.

#5367 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

“Cost of ownership” dude

The company isn't routing TS4 because we think it's a TCO leader - we are routing it for other reasons.

The beauty of operating is... I don't have the personal stake in the buying decision that so many owners let cloud their judgement. These are mules to me, not trophies.

#5426 1 year ago
Quoted from PinMonk:

I can see the argument for both types. For free play it could definitely be a magnet item to draw people to the location, but for paid locations, if I were putting it out, it would definitely be a $1.50 or 4/$5 vend, minimum. The game has long ball times, so probably would not offer 4 balls/game like I did for $1.50 jjPotC pre-pandemic to take some of the sting out of the higher price.

Our game avg is only about 5mins with stock settings (with the exception of EB limits). $1/play like its contemporaries.

#5427 1 year ago
Quoted from jfh:

Most people new to the hobby aren’t going to start out paying $12k+ for a game.

The 'new to the hobby' crowd has been pushing prices up since 2011. "new to the hobby" pretty much is synonymous with 'price blind'

#5431 1 year ago
Quoted from Noma2017:

I assume if I had entered the hobby when $6,500 got me a WOZ, these prices would all look insane

You'd think... but people bend and they all line up release after release to buy games sight unseen.

Remember.. all these buyers who were ready to jump on TS4 before the game was announced were already conditioned and ready to spend 10k+.

The blowback now is because people are not happy with the price+'what you get'... If this were a loaded game that same faithful would be tripping over themselves to spend 12 or 15k.

The hobby has seen game prices essentially double in the last decade. People keep paying.

For every old timer who is like "I would never pay that much for a game"... there are 2-3 newer hobbyists ready to take up their slack. Add in the speculators now and this is what we have. New blood willing to pay huge prices.. almost any prices.

#5432 1 year ago
Quoted from medeski7:

I don't entirely agree. I'm new to the hobby and anticipated it would cost me $2-3K for a machine in decent shape when I got in a year ago. FTR, I have a good job and make good money.

That's nice, but for every person not willing to spend these prices.. there are more that are. And that pool got huge... hence the point about 'new to the hobby' - those that wouldn't pay, are being overran by the influx of a new population that will.

Quoted from medeski7:

Ibut the price of a TS4 makes it a hard pass for me.

Nothing wrong with that at all. The idea that people even feel the need to decide to opt out of a game is a huge tell in itself. The expectation of 'latest game, gotta buy it' is in itself insane. People should be considering purchasing a game they like... not simply evaluating every new game. But that's where we are right now.. helped by the idea that people feel they can buy and sell a game with minimal depreciation.

Personally, recently I have even less reason to buy games myself vs the prior decades. Used to buy games because it was the only way to really secure access to titles or ones that were maintained. Now with the resurgence of location pinball, most areas have multiple options for playing games on-demand without having to spend $5-$15k for the privilege of playing a game that actually works each time you step up to it. I sold about half my collection this year because I found myself just playing out on location more than at home.

Thx for the shoutout for O-Town.. I hope you enjoy the games. 3-strike Tournament there this saturday

#5562 1 year ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

After 2 weeks in the company office the game is still down more often than it is up due to stuck balls. There are some serious design flaws in this game, and I am bringing styrofoam with me next time I'm there to press into shape to keep the ball from getting stuck in certain spots. \

Like where?

We operate the game without techs onsite and don't have similar issues. In fact, I can't think of any stuck ball issues once the pop-ups were adjusted on day one.

#5564 1 year ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

Most recently (yesterday) when I came over it was stuck under that dang cake topper on the right return habitrail. Level left to right and about a 6.8% incline.
[quoted image]

1 - they give you very specific instructions on the incline (which is not 6.8 btw)
2 - Can't say I've seen that ball movement and not sure how it would have bounced into that spot from below. Any others you see frequently?

I'd start with setting the game at the very specific 6.5 level they instruct you to (IIRC), ensure the three playfield features are all adjusted for proper height, and go from there.

Besides adjusting Gabby to drop better.. game pretty much hasn't had to be opened at all for us post-setup.

#5639 1 year ago
Quoted from Thunderbird:

Are you ever going to find a location that has blown their pinball wade on a $12k machine, not claim to be “happy” with their decision???

Why do you think they have anything to prove or protect? It's the opposite... unlike hobbyist they treat their games like mules instead of personal trophies. If it doesn't work, they cut and run by selling the game early.

Meanwhile.. Scorbit is telling me ToyStory is earning great this week.

#5652 1 year ago
Quoted from Thunderbird:

Happy for you, but we both know, its going to take an extremely large amount of “casuals” to pay off a whopping $12,000.00 mule. Wouldn’t it be wiser to put that $12k into mules that really payoff, as in far more popular machines with arcade goers like skill testers???

This has been covered before... I don't need the game to pay off $12k. I only need it to pay off its depreciation.

What matters to ops is revenue. New games drive revenue. In many ways the high price point is to our advantage.. it means none of the other locations in the region have the game... so if you want to play, you come to me.

#5653 1 year ago
Quoted from Thunderbird:

How about double the earning power with JP and GZ, 2 Stern pros for about the same money, if you’re really committed to arcade pinball? Wouldn’t those double earned profits make you even happier?

I already have a JP and GZ in the location.. along with every other recent stern title. And guess what... Toy Story is earning right along side them... and more than them right now... alot more.

Well one correction, GZ isn't earning because it's been down due to node boards wiping out entire series of boards and stern taking forever to replace them.

#5696 1 year ago
Quoted from PtownPin:

Doesn't surprise me as its brand new title.

Drop-in or casual players don't know this. I tell people all the time 'this is the newest game in the industry.. just released' - they don't care. They only know what is familiar or not to them. Just as many people recognize Flintstones is new in the room. We route the latest games to pull in the hobbyists/regulars.. but the bulk of players know nothing of this.

Quoted from PtownPin:

The real question is whats the residual value of a TS4 thats been routed. My guess is significantly less than MSRP

Wait.. you think routed pinballs are at risk of depreciating?? STOP THE PRESSES. Routing games being worth less than MSRP is the norm. This is not some new risk for TS4.

Here's a secret... we routed GNR and eventually sold it too... for less than MSRP. We were still fine..

#5698 1 year ago
Quoted from PtownPin:

Good for u ! You made my point...

Yes, that you keep talking about dynamics and operations you don't really know about.

#5726 1 year ago
Quoted from Thunderbird:

Okay, your opinion, but many think it doesn’t have much more in it than a Stern home pin, sold in 2022 well under $6k. So under that guise its a $6k game tops.

The animated light board at the back of the game people would be paying over a grand for if it were a mod for another game. It's actually a major toy in itself that isn't really appreciated till you see it in action. It's actually pretty phenomenal what they've done with all those RGBs.

#5727 1 year ago
Quoted from DakotaMike:

Part of my problem with Tiki Pinball is that qualifying the multiball mode simply requires switch hits. So it's often advisable to let the ball drain while the timer is still counting down, so that the ball can go back up into the pops.
So depending on luck, you can often get by without even really flipping th3 tiki pinball anyway.

Right strategy is to let it drain once so you can complete the rollovers quickly to get 2x tiki pinball

#5736 1 year ago
Quoted from JohnTTwo:

With TS4 being such a great earner how many more will you buy? 5-10?

Not the model we have - based on our type/number of locations.

#5788 1 year ago
Quoted from explosiveegg:

I thought it was around 25-30% of the MSRP of the game.

They'd be singing in the streets if they were the case... try under 1k... well under.

#5818 1 year ago
Quoted from PinMonk:

Given how long they've had to work on it with the pandemic delay, it's lame they launched it with the virtual pin being so sad.

I'm not getting all the angst over it. The game is clearly not setup to be some real simulation. The game play is consistent and easily adaptable.. and you play for like 20 seconds. I feel like your beating on it for being something it never tried to be.

#5884 1 year ago
Quoted from BrianBannon:Gabby's face will get dirty unless it is wiped off on occasion. Not hard to clean at all, just another item while cleaning the playfield.

Not “occasion” - its a few dozen games. Plus its a printed part… so you can’t use your normal solvent cleaners. Plus its showing signs of wearing… so it becomes rough and dirt sticks more.

After two weeks… i had to stop caring. You can’t keep it clean with avg play

#5885 1 year ago
Quoted from zaphX:

What happened to the gopher in No Good Gophers? Did he have the same dirt issue?

Bash toys made with dark colors vs bash toy with flesh tones

#5891 1 year ago
Quoted from zaphX:

The solution here is pretty obvious.[quoted image]

I was thinking more like oral retainer with headgear

224F7BE6-01B8-447C-A998-C3554FBB37C8 (resized).jpeg224F7BE6-01B8-447C-A998-C3554FBB37C8 (resized).jpeg

#5926 1 year ago
Quoted from PtownPin:

The real question is what would a routed TS4 be worth after several thousand plays?....my guess way below $10K, but who knows.

Unlike so many hobbyists, operators don't expect their equipment to appreciate in value. So it's accepted that there will be depreciation.. The question is simply a discussion of earnings vs that depreciation. You can't really talk about one without the other.

The thing about JJPs is... there is no flood of cheap used ones around because the majority of them were bought by home owners. That keeps the avg prices up. So even if you are the 'bottom 10%' of game examples.. you're still the bottom of a sales range that has a very high avg sales price.

Would taking a 4k hit in depreciation be a big hit? Sure... but it's still not 12k like people keep waving their hands about.. and still less than the 6k that most hobbyist have set in their mind that people need to make to offset a stern pro

#5934 1 year ago
Quoted from Lermods:

I’m a big fan of the game, but from an operator standpoint, the price has to be tough. For 12k, you could nearly buy two stern pros. So the question becomes, can toy story out earn gz and mando? Or rush and stranger things? Maybe, maybe not, but that’s how I’d think about it.

Also depends on...

1) do you have another spot worth putting the second game at? Otherwise, not much use in 'can get two for that price' thinking
2) is there a negative impression risk if you don't have the game?
3) Will the game earn it's keep? in both the slot its in (vs an alternative) and enough to keep itself profitable

Unfortunately routing is far more about 'putting something in the right spot' then it is 'I have something to put out on location'. The pull and passive traffic isn't really good enough to just have pins floating out on their own these days. So having good locations and keeping them pumping is a huge part of it. Pins have such a high overhead associated with them you have to be a lot more selective in where you put them. That means their 'slot' in a good location becomes something you plan around too.

#5943 1 year ago
Quoted from LTG:

And these comments are just for me. Based on my experience. Other ops and places can and will have different experiences.
Initially I was seriously thinking of trading my jjp Pirates for a TS CE, until I saw it. I expected more for what might be Pat's last game.
If I was going to buy a pin right now, I'd be thinking Godzilla premium or a Safe Cracker. Two pins that either one would be a plus for me.
LTG : )

Yeah making space and a game earning it's spot is opportunity cost that many don't consider. Thank god you didn't trade on POTC.. tho I sure would have been tempted to just cash out on it during the peak! Getting 7-8k net in one swoop is worth a lot time! plus a new game earning in that same spot. With the surge in game values, we often have to analyze if cashing out is simply better than the coin drop.

#5958 1 year ago
Quoted from PanzerFreak:

The whole "Stern Pro's are more reliable then JJP's" type comments always get me. Yes, a LZ Pro is more reliable then a JJP as there's barely anything in it that moves, same thing for a majority of Stern Pro's lol. The game has changed though with Toy Story 4, now it has far less things that move in it as well!

It’s not just complexity- it’s engineering and choices.

Those spinners in GNR? Nightmares
The spinning disc that always collapses? Forever

Serviceability is something one designs for… if you think it comes for free try keeping TBL running… and see what happens when non-experienced types design the game

2 months later
#6046 1 year ago
Quoted from Flipper_McGavin:

Currently more CEs for sale than LEs. Odd.

Timing...

CEs are getting delivered now so those who want out are selling now... LE buyers who wanted out were delivered earlier and hence were selling earlier.

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